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ECB Closer to Rate Rise Than BOE as Energy Prices Stay High

  • The European Central Bank and the Bank of England left key interest rates unchanged, but the ECB is closer to a rate hike.
  • European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde revealed the governing council discussed raising the key rate for a potential June move.
  • Bank of England Gov. Andrew Bailey played down the inevitability of a rate rise.

 
Iran War Lifts Fed’s Targeted Inflation Metric

  • Higher energy prices drove the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure up 0.7% in March, making rate cuts divisive.
  • The 12-month personal-consumption expenditures price index rose 3.5%, remaining above the Fed’s 2% annual target.
  • Consumer spending increased 0.9% in March, fueled by a 20% month-over-month rise in gasoline and energy spending.
South Korea Exports Continue to Surge on AI-Related Demand

  • South Korea’s exports surged 48.0% to $85.89 billion in April, driven by semiconductor shipments, showing economic resilience amid Middle East risks.
  • Semiconductor shipments, accounting for about a quarter of total exports, surged due to global technology companies building AI infrastructure.
  • Imports rose 16.7% from a year earlier to $62.11 billion in April, resulting in a $23.77 billion trade surplus.
U.S. Leading Indicators Forecasts Further Slowdown

  • The U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined by 0.6% in March to 97.3, signaling slower growth ahead.
  • The Conference Board reported the March decline reversed February’s 0.3% increase, due to weakening building permits and consumer expectations.
  • The LEI fell 1% over the six months from September 2025 to March 2026, a slower rate than the 2.1% contraction in the prior six months.
U.S. Jobless Claims Fell Last Week

  • U.S. jobless claims fell to 189,000 in the week through April 25, lower than economists’ expectations of 212,000.
  • Continuing claims decreased to 1.79 million in the week through April 18.
  • The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in April, noting job gains remained low and the unemployment rate was little changed.
 

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