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Asia in Review

No. 13, March/2020, 5

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers,

Please enjoy this week’s AiR issue in times still dominated by the global struggle with the Covid-19 pandemic.

In case you are looking for more information on constitutionalism, human rights, governance, geopolitics, and security in Asia during the last year, let me draw your attention to the AiR Annual Issue 2019. The annual issue contains all 53 weekly AiR issues of 2019 with an interactive table of contents making it easier to find the areas you are interested in. 

The issue is accessible at http://www.cpg-online.de/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/AiR_Annual-Issue-2019__313.pdf.

I wish you an informative read.

With greetings from the AiR team,

Henning Glaser

Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

Main Sections

• Law and Politics in East Asia

• Law and Politics in South Asia

• Law and Politics in South East Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

• Background Reading

Law and Politics in East Asia 

China bars foreign visitors

(dql) China last week announced a temporary ban on all foreign visitors, including those who have visas or residence permits. The decision, which also includes a limitation of Chinese and foreign airlines to one flight per week, is a response to the rapid spread of the coronavirus across the world and latest developments of virus transmission in China. Among 55 new cases across China recorded last Thursday, 54 of them were ‘imported’ from overseas. [South China Morning Post] [BBC]

China: Economic restart amid Covid-19

(dql) After the nation-wide lockdown declared in January amid mounting numbers of coronavirus infections, the Chinese government since March has been taking measures to push for a restart of its economy, including spending billions of dollars on medical supplies and treatment, investing in infrastructure projects for job creation, reducing taxes on small businesses and instructing banks to defer loan payments for troubled households or companies. Laura He at [CNN] analyses the risks involved in the economic restart at a time when Covid-19 cases are still reported, but also looks into the question in how far China's economic restart might provide insights or even a partial blueprint for countries that are still in crisis mode. 

For numbers of businesses reopening in China see [Wired], [Marketplace].

South Korea: Overseas polling halted in 25 countries

(ef/dql) Due to the shift of the Covid-19 epicenter to Europe and the US, and subsequent safety concerns, South Korea has suspended overseas polling for the April 15 general election in 25 countries citing safety concerns for Korean residents over increasing Covid-19 infection numbers, mobility restrictions and   lockdowns in those countries.

Following this decision, more than 80,000 voters or 47% of the eligible overseas electorate will not be able to cast their votes in next month’s general election. The overseas voting was scheduled to take place between April 1 and 6. The decision has sparked widespread protest among expats. 

Meanwhile, candidate registration for the election started last Thursday, with 300 seats contested in the 21st National Assembly and the coronavirus outbreak overshadowing the campaigns of the political parties.  Currently, the ruling Democratic Party controls 121 seats of the unicameral parliament, while the main opposition United Future Party holds 104 seats. The remaining sears are taken by other nine smaller parties and independent lawmakers. [Korea Herald]  [Yonhap]

South Korea: Call for reform of criminal law

(ef) An investigation of the prosecution into online sexual violence against women has raised calls for a reform of South Korea’s criminal law to combat digital sex crimes, with Human Rights Watch in the lead criticizing that “major gaps in law, enforcement, and support for victims remain,” and urging the government to guarantee victims access to mental health support, legal assistance, and civil remedies. [Human Rights Watch].

The case involves a 25-year-old man accused of blackmailing his victims into performing violent sex acts and selling footage of the acts via a messaging app. [Asia Times] [Strait Times]

Transitional justice in Taiwan: Files on white terror political cases to be disclosed to public

(dql) Taiwan’s National Archives Administration (NAA) has received from the National Security Bureau (NSB) a total of more than 400 declassified files on 118 political cases that occurred during the white terror era in Taiwan from 1947-1987. The NAA is instructed to make the files available to the public as part of furthering the process of transitional justice in Taiwan.  

Among others, the declassification is expected to shed light on the deaths of former Democratic Progressive Party Chairman Lin Yi-hsiung’s family members and democracy activist Chen Wen-chen. Both cases are believed to be politically motivated killings. [Taiwan News]

Taiwan: Lowering voting age

(dql) The main opposition Kuomintang has submitted to the parliament a proposal to amend the Constitution to lower the voting age from currently 20 to 18 and the age of candidacy to 20 from 23. The party hopes that the reform will be completed before the 2022 local government elections.

In response, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party announced that it will come forward with an own proposal for such a constitutional amendment and set up a constitutional reform committee to deal with the matter. [Taipei Times] [Focus Taiwan]

Law and Politics in South Asia 

India: Modi orders country-wide curfew

(ls) India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has ordered a 21-day curfew (until 15 April) to prevent the spreading of Covid-19. It is the world’s largest lockdown as it affects a population of about 1.3 billion people. Under the order, there are specified times to go buy essential goods, and people could face up to two years in jail and a financial penalty if they violate the rules. Prior to the curfew order, the government had already banned incoming international flights, grounded domestic flights and shut sea and river ports. Indian Railways had cancelled all services except suburban and goods trains. [South China Morning Post]

The vast shutdown has triggered hundreds of thousands of poor migrant laborers employed in big cities such as Delhi and Mumbai to head to their homes in the countryside on foot after losing their jobs. In some parts of India, migrant workers clashed violently with the police. [Reuters 1]

The strict measures have been strongly criticized. [The Atlantic]

The longest-running protest against India’s Citizenship Amendment Act in New Delhi has also been dispersed. The police referred to the ban on public gatherings because of the coronavirus outbreak. Many of the protesters have been at the site since December. Already before the coronavirus epidemic, there had been calls by hardline Hindu groups linked to Modi’s government alliance and residents in the area to clear it out. [Reuters 2]

Constitutional experts have argued that an invocation of emergency rule would not be permitted by any of the three existing grounds (war, external aggression, armed rebellion) in Article 352 of the Indian Constitution. This provision permits the Central government to declare an emergency and suspend fundamental rights. In the current corona situation, the applicable laws are rather the Epidemic Diseases Act, 1897 (EDA) and the Disaster Management Act, 2005 (DMA). However, it may appear doubtful whether the current measures sufficiently respect the right to life, in particular of migrant workers. [The Wire]

India: Maoist commit major attack against security forces

(hg) In the deadliest attack since 2017, Maoist rebels have killed 17 Indian security forces in an ambush in the central state of Chhattisgarh on March 22, when more than 300 armed rebels attacked a police commando patrol in the jungles. In April 2017, 25 police commandos were killed in an attack in the same district. 

Before last year’s elections, 16 police commandos were killed in a bomb attack in the state of Maharashtra, allegedly also committed by Maoists rebels. The latter have been fighting in eastern, central and southern forest areas of the subcontinent since the 1960s. In the protracted conflict, especially indigenous people in mineral-rich regions have become the victims of the conflict between Maoists and government forces with thousands of mostly tribal people having been killed. The government has deployed more than 100,000 troops - a third of them paramilitary forces from India's Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) - to root out the rebellion in Chhattisgarh alone which has killed more than 2,000 people there since 1995. In the theater, security forces have been accused of committing severe rights abuses including extrajudicial killings of innocent indigenous people. Moreover, also human rights activists and journalists have been targeted by security forces for reporting on abuse and unlawful killings. [Aljazeera 1]

The Maoist are often denoted Naxals derived from the first Maoist uprising in 1967 in the remote Naxalbari village in West Bengal that triggered a first wave of struggle that was brought down by the government by 1972. For the next two decades, the Maoist struggle remained rather subdued and localized. Yet, after the government begun to granting mining licences to private and multinational corporations as part of the liberalization and privatization policies of the 1990s, violence surged again. The current phase of Maoist armed engagement begun in 2004, when two Maoist groups merged: the 1976-formed People's War Group (PWG) having been active especially in the state of Andhra Pradesh and the Maoist Communist Centre (MCC) having been mainly active in the state of Bihar. PWG and MCC now formed the Communist Party of India (Maoist) or CPI (Maoist) which is officially banned. A splinter group is the Tritiya Prastuti Committee (TPC) based in the mineral rich state of Jharkhand and commanding about 500 cadres. The Maoists are especially active in the so-called "Red Corridor" - spread across the states of Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar and Andhra Pradesh – but are also operating in other states. [Aljazeera 2]

In the endless story of violence, an elected local self-government official has been killed yesterday by Maoists in the state of Maharashtra. [India Today]

Sri Lanka: President pardons army officer convicted of killing Tamil civilians

(ls) In a controversial move, Sri Lanka's President Gotabaya Rajapaksa pardoned and released an army officer sentenced to death for killing Tamil civilians, including children, during the country’s ethnic war. In a widely reported verdict last year, the Supreme Court had unanimously rejected the officer's appeal and upheld the death penalty. The case was widely cited as a rare instance of accountability. Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who as an army officer served in the same regiment as the convict, and his brother Mahinda, now serving as prime minister, had lead the defeat of separatist Tamil rebels to end the country's 37-year separatist war in 2009. [Al Jazeera]

The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michele Blanchett, called the pardon an "affront to victims" and another example of Sri Lanka's failure to hold war criminals to account. Opposition lawmakers and human rights organizations also condemned the pardon. [Straits Times] [Human Rights Watch]

Bangladesh: Opposition leader Khaleda Zia released from imprisonment

(ls) Bangladesh’s government released imprisoned opposition leader and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia for six months. She is thus permitted to seek medical treatment, and the release came on the condition that she stays at home and does not attempt to leave the country. Zia has spent more than two years being imprisoned. She was sentenced to 17 years in prison in two corruption cases. Her Bangladesh Nationalist Party says the cases were politically motivated. [Voice of America]

Bangladesh: Overview of the laws applicable in the current coronavirus crisis

(ls) The Dhaka Tribune has published an overview of the laws and regulations which are the legal basis for the fight against the spread of Covid-19 in Bangladesh. The article also looks at policy brutality in the enforcement of the regulations in place. [Dhaka Tribune] The government also deployed the army to enforce the measures. [The Diplomat]

Why Pakistan did not close mosques despite the coronavirus threat

(ls) Unlike other Muslim countries like Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, Pakistan has not banned congregational prayers that pose a clear threat to public health. An interesting article investigates the backgrounds of this decision, which also displays the politics around Islamic authority in Pakistan. [TRT World]

Law and Politics in Southeast Asia 

Thailand: (Some) charges against former Future Forward leader Thanathorn dropped 

(jk) Last week, charges that indicated a violation of the Computer Crime Act against former Future Forward leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit and two other former party executives were dropped. [Bangkok Post]

The particular charges were filed in 2018 after the then ruling National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) filed a complaint against Thanathorn and others over a Facebook live post in which he criticised the leadership.

While the dropped charges are good news for Thanathorn, it is worth pointing out that he continues to face numerous other charges that are still pending. These include the most recently filed criminal charges by the Election Commission over his media shareholdings which carry penalties of 10 years imprisonment. [Asia in Review No. 11, March/2020, 3]

Thailand: 19 Million apply for Covid-19 cash relief 

(jk) A cash relief government programme that was initiated over the weekend granting an around 150 USD monthly handout over three months, has been applied for by close to 20 million people over the first few days. 

The government, stressing the programme is intended only for those who have no social security, has underestimated the number of applications as they initially announced they were expecting around 3 million applicants. [Khaosod]

A short piece, focussing on the poor who are hit hardest by the crisis, eludes to a number of problems with the "no one left behind" programme, including its initial budget as well as access to even register for the hand-out by those who desperately need it. [Thisrupt]

Caution over Thailand's and Philippines' emergency powers over the COVID-19 Crisis

(jk) As reported last week [Asia in Review No. 12, March/2020, 4], both Thailand and the Philippines have granted their leadership emergency powers to handle the ongoing COVID-19 crisis. 

While in both cases no extreme measures have been taken yet, the emergency powers that were granted allow for instance for stringent control of the media and are generally kept vague. Critics argue they could easily be misused by the authorities to stifle critics of the government and increase the risk of unchecked use of power which needs to be watched carefully. Rights groups, such as Freedom House or Forum-Asia, have flagged the issue and voiced concerns the COVID-19 crisis could be used as an excuse for governments to bolster their power. [Benarnews] [Asia Times]

According to remarks by Indonesian President Joko Widodo and a worsening situation in Indonesia, it appears that the government in Jakarta is also considering emergency powers to fight the crisis while Timor-Leste President Francisco Guterres declared a state of emergency across the country from March 28 to April 26. [The Straits Times] [UCA News]

Malaysia's new cabinet

(jk) After Malaysia’s new Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin announce his new cabinet earlier this month, political observers looked closely at what had come of the "horse-trading" that led to this the new administration.

According to an ISEAS analysis, the cabinet reflects a number of considerations: "blocking potential challengers for the top job; satisfying the various coalition members; avoiding controversial party leaders; and maintaining a semblance of racial and regional diversity".

The piece also argues that against some expectations, while cabinet is clearly Malay-dominated and UMNO in particular is crucial to its stability, UMNO and PAS did not "secure control over the largest or most influential portfolios".

As a result of the many uncertainties and interests that reside within the new Perikatan Nasional coalition, it won't be easy for Yassin to keep his cabinet in place, create parliamentary support and avoid a vote of no-confidence when parliament next meets. [ISEAS]

Myanmar: Army withdraws criminal complaint against Reuters

(jk) After the Myanmar military had filed a lawsuit against Reuters and a local lawmaker for criminal defamation following a story about two Rohingya women dying as a result of shelling in Rakhine state as reported in [Asia in Review No. 11, March/2020, 3], the military has now withdrawn this and a second lawsuit filed last year against an editor for a local news website, "because of the mediation and request of the Myanmar Press Council". [Reuters]

Singapore: High Court rejects challenges to gay sex ban 

(jk) A court in Singapore dismissed several challenges against a Singapore law, taken over from British colonial times, criminalising gay sex. It ruled that the law did not violate articles of the constitution, which was alleged, regarding equality and freedom of speech.

While the law is rarely enforced, LGBT activist state such law is in contradiction to the values of a modern and forward looking culture. The judge however argued that despite the law not being enforced, it still reflects widely held "public sentiments and beliefs". [The Guardian]

Indonesia: Dutch court orders Netherlands to pay compensation for colonial killings

(jk) A Dutch court has ordered the Netherlands to make compensation payments to relatives of victims of atrocities committed by Dutch colonial troops during their often violent actions against Indonesian freedom fighters before Indonesian independence in 1945. The court found in the particular cases that it heard in The Hague that 11 men had been killed as a result of misbehaviour by Dutch soldiers and their realties were due compensation [The Guardian]. 

Two weeks ago, on a royal visit to Indonesia, Dutch King Willem-Alexander apologised for “excessive violence” used by the Dutch forces during Indonesia's fight for independence. While the Netherlands has paid damages to relatives of victims before, the apology issued by a member of the Dutch royal family was a first. [Reuters]

Cambodia: Ongoing crackdown of opposition figures and activists 

(jk) Cambodian police have over the past week arrested two former officials of the dissolved opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), allegedly without warrant or explaining the reasons for the arrests.  The harassment of CNRP activists continues to increase, and many "are now believed to be held in the country’s jails, mostly without a warrant, with many more having been summoned to appear in court related to their support of Sam Rainsy’s plan to return late last year", according to [Radio Free Asia 1] [Radio Free Asia 2]. 

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

China and USA agree to cooperate in fighting pandemic at G20 Extraordinary Meeting 

(dql) At last week’s G20 Extraordinary Meeting on the coronavirus crisis, conducted via video conference, leaders of the G20 countries vowed to inject 5 trillion USD in fiscal spending into the global economy to lessen the economic impact of the coronavirus, adding that the group would "do whatever it takes to overcome the pandemic". In a rare moment of unity, the leaders expressed their commitment to implementing and funding all necessary health measures necessary to halt the spread of virus. [G20.org] [Aljazeera]

For critical account on the outcomes of the meeting see the opinion peace at [East Asia Forum] calling the meeting “big on rhetoric, but short on substance” and the amount of 5 trillion USD “woefully inadequate”. 

Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Donald Trump announced that both countries will cooperate to contain the Covid-19 pandemic after a phone conversation between the leaders following the pledge of the G20. [South China Morning Post]

The announcement comes as surprise given the war of words and mutual accusations between Beijing and Washington over the origin of the coronavirus in the recent weeks [AiR No. 12, March/2020, 4] and as US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s referred to the virus as “Wuhan Virus” in a speech during G7 video conference last week in which he demanded that China provides full transparency in the context of the coronavirus while he also expressed US willingness to work with every country around the world, including China in order “to keep as many people alive, as many people as healthy, and then to restore our economies that have been decimated by the Wuhan virus.” [Reuters]

China-EU relations: Brussels warns against Beijing’s Trojan horse of medical Covid-19 supplies

(dql) The European Union’s High Representative Josep Borrell has warned of China’s “politics of generosity”, urging EU countries to stand ready for a “struggle for influence” in a “global battle of narratives”. Borell’s remarks refer to China's 'mask diplomacy' and come amid increasing unease in the EU over what is seen as Beijing’s targeted strategy to help certain European countries - among them hard-hit Italy and Spain - with medical supplies and support to fight Covid-19. [Asia Times] [Fox News]

For an assessment of China’s ‘mask diplomacy’ see Brian Wong at [The Diplomat] who suggests to understand it as “a rather successful emulation and adaptation of long-standing diplomatic best practices, which – coupled with the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak – have lent the battered regime a seeming chance at global redemption.”

China-India relations: Mutual distrust runs deep

(dql) 2020 marks the 70th anniversary of China-India relations. Yun Sun at [War on the Rock] provides a historical account of Sino-Indian ties and concludes that mutual distrust between Beijing and New Delhi runs deep suggesting that with both countries pursuing incompatible interests on a number of key issues amid great-power rivalry and domestic populism, the chance of reconciling those differences is not foreseeable in the near future.

China: Rising arms sales in Latin America and Africa

(dql) Over the past 20 years China has developed into a major arms provider, second only to the USA. Nirnajan Rose at [Modern Diplomacy] provides current numbers of Chinese arms exports along with a take on Beijing’s military activities in Latin America and Africa. 

Japan-Thailand relations: Local Currency Swap Arrangement signed

(dql) In a move to boost the financial stability of both countries, Thailand’s and Japan’s central bank signed a bilateral local currency swap arrangement (BSA) effective as of 31 March 2020 for a period of three years. The BSA allows for the exchange of local currencies between the two central banks of up to 240 billion Baht or 800 billion Yen (appr. 7.4 billion USD), enabling them to provide baht or yen liquidity to eligible financial institutions in support of their cross-border operations. [Market Screener]

South Korea, USA fail to agree on cost-sharing deal: Thousands to go on unpaid leave 

(dql) The US military is set to put about 4000 of its 8,500 South Korean civilian workers on furlough, as the USA and South Korea after seven rounds of talks still fail to agree on a cost-sharing deal for the stationing of 28.500 American soldiers in South Korea to replace the old agreement which expired 31 December last year.

A breakthrough, however, seems unlikely as Washington demands as much as a five-fold increase of Seoul’s contribution from 923 million USD to 4.7 billion USD while Seoul shows no signs of paying anywhere near that much. [Japan Times]

North Korea: Dialogue with the US halted due to pressure from Pompeo

(ef) Although the correspondence between Kim Jong-un and Trump had recently improved [AiR No. 12, March/2020, 4], the North Korean Foreign Ministry has announced that their interest in dialogue has ceased after the US Secretary of State Pompeo asked the G7 to remain united with regards to North Korea. Reportedly, this statement has made North Korea “more zealous for [their] important planned projects aimed to repay the U.S. with actual horror and unrest for the sufferings it has inflicted upon [their] people”. [New York Times]

Last Sunday, North Korea fired an unidentified projectile marking the fourth missile testing of March. [CNN, AiR No. 12, March/2020, 4] 

Taiwan-USA relations: Trump since TAIPEI Act into law

(dql) As widely expected, President Donald Trump last week signed the Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI) Act of 2019 into law. The legislation aims to discourage Taiwan's diplomatic allies from cutting ties with the island country due to pressure from Beijing. It provides the Secretary of State with the power to expand, reduce, or terminate U.S. aid to countries depending on whether they improve, worsen, or sever diplomatic relations with Taiwan. The law also calls for increased American support for Taiwan's participation in international organizations either as a member or observer. [Congress.Gov] [Focus Taiwan]

Beijing expressed strong objection against the move and called it an act hegemony. [South China Morning Post 1]

A day earlier, a US military vessel sailed through the Taiwan Strait, the latest sign of intensified military activity in the South China Sea in the recent years. [Aljazeera] [South China Morning Post 2]

Is the corona crisis bringing Nepal closer to China?

(ls) As China claims to have brought the coronavirus outbreak under control, it has now reached out to Nepal, India, and 10 other Eurasian and South Asian countries to help out these nations in their respective fight against the virus. As for Nepal, these efforts may bring the country in closer cooperation with its big neighbor. The development highlights Nepal’s difficult choice between China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the United States’ Indo-Pacific Strategy. [The Diplomat]

Major Defence events in Southeast Asia cancelled over Covid-19

(jk) Amid countless cancellations of events, meetings, military exercises etc, it was announced last week that the Shangri La Dialogue - easily among the most important annual defence and security fora in Southeast Asia - originally scheduled for early June - will be cancelled this year. [IISS]

Another major security event that fell prey to cancellations over the Covid crisis, is the major US-Philippines military exercise "Balikatan", which were to take place from May 4-15 in the Philippines but has now been cancelled by the US. [Benar News]

Although this year's cancellation is not related, these significant exercises would have set a symbolic counterpoint to the recent cancellation of the visiting forces agreement with the US by President Duterte which was made official back in February. While the President has since reinforced his decision to cancel the VFA, the cancellation is currently subject of a Supreme Court challenge brought forward by opposing Senators [Asia in Review No. 10, March/2020, 2]. If the termination is to go ahead and no alternative is found, Balitakan 2020 would have been the last installation of the decades-old exercise between the two countries as the VFA forms the basis of such exercises even though the Mutual Defence Treaty remains in place. [CNN Philippines]

Mekong River Joint Patrol started 

(jk) The Mekong River joint patrol by China, Laos, Myanmar and Thailand began last week. The four countries will engage in "joint visits, inspections and an anti-drug publicity campaign during the four-day patrol" and will include a focus on the Golden Triangle notorious for illegal drug activity. [Navy Recognition]

China-Laos railway communication signal project commenced

(jk) Last week, the communication signal project of the China-Laos railway has begun by building a communication tower on the outskirts of Vientiane. The project aims to form the  heart of the "entire railway's train operation command and control system".

According to Chinese media, "the China-Laos Railway is a strategic docking project between the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative and Laos' strategy to convert from a landlocked country to a land-linked hub. The electrified passenger and cargo railway is built with the full application of Chinese management and technical standards." [Xinuha]

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