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Fed Officials Debate Implementation of New Framework; Bank of Canada Keeps Key Rate Unchanged
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Good day. Ahead of their September meeting, Fed officials are debating how exactly to implement their new framework governing how they will conduct policy over the long run. Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged, saying it expects a faster third-quarter recovery than it had previously anticipated. On the agenda today we have a policy statement from the European Central Bank.
Now on to today’s news and analysis.
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Fed Debates How to Implement New Policy Strategy
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Officials are set to release after their meeting next Wednesday new economic and interest rate projections that run through 2023. PHOTO: BILL O'LEARY/ZUMA PRESS
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Fed officials are likely at coming meetings to provide more specific guidance about what conditions would justify continued low interest rates, according to public speeches and interviews. They could also clarify that their purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities, initiated in March with the stated goal of repairing market functioning, are being maintained now to support a faster recovery. But officials’ remarks heading into their Sept. 15-16 meeting suggested they haven’t agreed on how far to go in refining any new guidance on their policy plans and whether to wait before more fully reconfiguring policy statements to reflect the new framework.
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Derby's Take: U.S. Regulators Take On Climate Change While Elected Leaders Back Off
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While the Trump administration has torn up regulations and U.S. international agreements aimed at limiting climate change-related damage, U.S. financial regulators are slowly moving in the opposite direction. On Wednesday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released a first of its kind report calling for action to change the financial system so it promotes investment that doesn’t harm the environment. Read More.
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U.S. Job Openings Leveled Off Late in the Summer
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The increase in the number of job postings, a real-time measure of labor-market activity, has slowed dramatically since late July, and last week stood about 20% below 2019 levels, according to data the job-search site Indeed.com shared with The Wall Street Journal.
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Senate Republicans Unite Around ‘Skinny’ Coronavirus Bill
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Senate Republicans were confident Wednesday that most GOP colleagues would vote to support a narrower coronavirus aid package, a move aimed to highlight party unity as lawmakers grew increasingly pessimistic about any deal with Democrats before the election.
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Key Developments Around the World
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Bank of Canada Leaves Key Rate on Hold
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The Bank of Canada left its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged at 0.25% as it warned the economy will enter a slow and choppy phase of recuperation following an expected bounce back in activity during the third quarter of this year.
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Brexit Worries Reassert Hold Over British Pound
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The British pound fell against the euro and the dollar Wednesday, extending a seven-day losing streak that is its worst percentage decline since the coronavirus market crisis in March. Investors fretted anew about the economic pain from the U.K.’s political divorce from the European Union, which will come on top of the slowdown inflicted by pandemic-related shutdowns. The pound bought less than €1.10 and less than $1.30 on Wednesday morning, its lowest levels since late July.
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Financial Regulation Roundup
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CFTC Guidance to Detail Evaluation of Compliance Programs
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The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is expected to issue guidance detailing how it will evaluate corporate compliance programs—the latest effort by a U.S. enforcement agency to get companies to invest in programs that prevent regulatory infractions.’
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Climate Change Poses Major Risk to Financial Stability, Report Finds
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The report, released by a special subcommittee to the CFTC, calls for better pricing of carbon emissions in the U.S. and a variety of steps by financial regulators to incorporate climate-related risks into rules for banks, asset managers and other firms.
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Norway Tells Banks to Maintain Dividend, Buyback Halt
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Norway's Ministry of Finance said Wednesday that it expects the country's banks to continue refraining from distributing profits until the uncertainty created by the Covid-19 pandemic subsides further, noting that although many businesses in the country have now restarted their operations there is still a risk that a recovery will turn out to be weaker than expected. (Dow Jones Newswires)
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7:45 a.m.: European Central Bank releases policy statement
8:30 a.m.: U.S. Labor Department releases August PPI
8:30 a.m.: European Central Bank’s Lagarde holds press conference
12:30 p.m.: Bank of Canada's Macklem speaks online
1 p.m.: European Central Bank's Lagarde speaks at online conference on banking and payments in the digital world
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4:30 a.m.: Bank of England releases August TNS inflation attitudes survey
4:50 a.m.: European Central Bank's Schnabel speaks on panel at Eurofi Financial Forum in Berlin
5:45 a.m.: European Central Bank's Mersch gives speech at Eurofi Financial Forum in Berlin
8 a.m.: European Central Bank's Lane speaks in online panel discussion at workshop organized by the Dublin Chamber of Commerce
8:30 a.m.: U.S. Labor Department releases August CPI
8:30 a.m.: European Central Bank's Schnabel gives speech at webinar organized by Centre for European Reform
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TD Securities Make Case for Higher Inflation But Says It Is Unlikely
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TD Securities sees a case for higher inflation, but still thinks price pressures are unlikely to surge in a damaging way. Higher inflation could come from supply chain disruptions, strong money supply growth fueled by central bank stimulus, the Federal Reserve's move to tolerate inflation over its 2% target, higher commodity prices and a possible rise in expected inflation. TD Securities, however, in a note to its clients says that "our base case sees the deteriorated labor market as a key driver of inflation dynamics: we look for inflation across many key economies to remain firmly entrenched below 2% by the end of next year. But the journey there will be a volatile one, with base effects from weak energy prices in 2020 yielding strong inflation in mid-2021."
—Michael S. Derby
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Surprisingly Durable U.S. Recovery Faces Tougher Tests
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The economy hit bottom in April and has clawed back ground since despite a resurgence in coronavirus infections, but recovering the remaining ground may be tougher, Greg Ip writes at the Journal. He notes that "since April the number of people on temporary layoff has plummeted by two-thirds, or about 12 million. But the longer the pandemic drags on, the more businesses in the most vulnerable sectors will close forever."
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Traders are betting on fresh upheaval in the oil market, in an abrupt turnaround from the calm of recent months.
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U.S. container imports surged 19.3% from June in July as the economy reopened and retailers stocked up for the year-end holiday season, according to data from Global Port Tracker released by the National Retail Federation. A forecast points to a 6% annual rise to a record 2.06 million containers in August. (Dow Jones Newswires)
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Canadian housing starts rose in August for a third consecutive month and at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 262,396 units, up 6.9% from a slightly revised 245,425 units in July, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said. (DJN)
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The jobless rate in the OECD area fell to 7.7% in July from 8% in June, leaving it 2.5 percentage points above its level in February, the month before the Covid-19 pandemic hit the labor market, the Paris-based research body said. (DJN)
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Mexico’s consumer price index rose 0.39% in August, moving the 12-month inflation rate up to 4.05% from 3.62% in July, according to the National Statistics Institute. (DJN)
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Brazil's consumer prices accelerated in August from a year earlier by 2.44%, and by 0.24% from July, as the cost of transportation increased amid rising demand after states and towns eased more quarantine restrictions, the Brazilian Institute of Geography said Wednesday. (DJN)
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This newsletter is compiled by James Christie in San Francisco and Ed Ballard in London.
Send us your tips, suggestions and feedback. Write to:
Jon Hilsenrath, Michael Derby, Nell Henderson, Nick Timiraos, Jason Douglas, Paul Hannon, Harriet Torry, Kate Davidson, David Harrison, Kim Mackrael, Tom Fairless, Megumi Fujikawa, Michael Maloney, Paul Kiernan, James Glynn
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