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Cardboard-Box Demand Drops; Trump Wields U.S. Steel 'Golden Share'; Porsche Makes EV U-Turn

By Mark R. Long | WSJ Logistics Report

 

E-commerce companies are trimming cardboard consumption by shipping more items in paper and plastic mailers, denting box demand. PHOTO: JEREMY M. LANGE FOR WSJ

A slump in cardboard-box demand is flashing a potential warning sign about the health of the American consumer. The Wall Street Journal’s Ryan Dezember writes that a historic run of pulp-mill closures is also signaling problems for the companies that make corrugated packaging, as well as for timberland owners who sell them wood.

Box shipments have fallen from the record highs reached during the pandemic to the lowest levels since 2016. On a per-capita basis, the drop is even sharper, with box shipments per American down more than 20% from their 1999 peak, one analyst said. International Paper now forecasts a 2% decline in demand this year, after previously expecting 1% growth.

Demand is suffering from uncertainty in U.S. boardrooms and export markets from Trump’s tariffs and from weakening consumer spending. The sputtering housing market has also hurt, and e-commerce firms, including Amazon, have trimmed their cardboard consumption by shipping more items in paper and plastic mailers.

Source: Adam Josephson

 
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Quotable

“We’ve never seen anything like this magnitude of shuts.”

— Adam Josephson, packaging analyst and economics newsletter writer
 

Industrial Policy

U.S. Steel's plant in Granite City, Ill. PHOTO: MICHAEL B. THOMAS FOR WSJ 

The Trump administration flexed its new authority over U.S. Steel, blocking the company’s plan to shut down production at an Illinois plant this fall. The Journal’s Bob Tita writes that, two weeks ago, U.S. Steel notified workers in Granite City, Ill., that plant operations would cease in November.

The company, now owned by Tokyo-based Nippon Steel, said it would continue paying the mill’s nearly 800 employees, even without them doing regular production work. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick got wind of the plan and called U.S. Steel Chief Executive Dave Burritt, a person familiar with the matter said. Lutnick told Burritt the administration wouldn’t allow operations to cease, and the president would invoke his so-called golden share authority over plant operations.

On Friday, U.S. Steel said it reversed its plan and that Granite City Works would continue rolling steel slabs into sheet steel.

 
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Auto Manufacturing

Porsche dialed back its EV plans and will add combustion-engine models to its lineup. Above, a 1990 Porsche 911 Carrera 2. PHOTO: JASON ANDREW FOR WSJ

Porsche made a screeching U-turn on fully electric vehicles, delaying the launch of new models and adding combustion-engine and hybrid vehicles to its lineup. Slumping demand for EVs, a collapse in demand for German luxury cars in China and Trump’s tariffs are weighing on the German sports-car maker, which cut its profit outlook for the fourth time this year, the Journal’s Stephen Wilmot, Cristina Gallardo and Mauro Orru write.

A new full-size SUV in the works won’t initially be available as an EV as planned, and will be offered with combustion or plug-in hybrid engines. Current models also will be available with traditional powertrains well into the 2030s. The lineup changes will cost the 911 maker about $3.6 billion this year. Volkswagen, which owns more than 75% of Porsche AG, said it would take a hit of around $6 billion because of Porsche’s forecast adjustments and portfolio review.

  • Nvidia is in talks to invest $500 million in Wayve Technologies, a self-driving car startup, potentially expanding their partnership. (WSJ)
 

Number of the Day

7%

Year-over-year drop in the DAT Truckload Volume Index for dry van loads in August, to 236, which is down 8% from July, as shippers pulled forward imports earlier in the year

 

In Other News

Fabio Barone claimed a new record for the fastest car on a boat, reaching 102 miles an hour in a Ferrari on an Italian aircraft carrier. (Associated Press) PHOTO: GREGORIO BORGIA / AP

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum agreed to develop a strategic alliance to bolster security and trade. (WSJ)

Japan’s consumer prices increased 2.7% in August, slightly lower than July’s 3.1% rise, but still above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. (WSJ)

U.K. retail sales increased 0.5% in August, matching July’s growth. (WSJ)

British consumer confidence decreased this month, with expectations of a slowing economy and potential tax increases threatening a greater downturn. (WSJ)

The EU proposed sanctions on firms buying Russian oil. (WSJ)

U.S. regulators are investigating seven incidents, with five fatalities, involving Chinese-made aftermarket air-bag parts that ruptured during collisions. (WSJ)

United Parcel Service quit its plan to buy Estafeta, abandoning a more than year-long effort to acquire the Mexican small-package provider. (WSJ)

Lennar’s profit fell for a fourth consecutive quarter as it continues to offer aggressive incentives to stimulate sales in a dormant housing market. (WSJ)

A survey of 1,000 online shoppers found that 31% now consider same-day delivery to be standard, with 63% expecting delivery in two days or less. (Supply Chain 247)

A meeting between Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could yield aircraft orders for Boeing and Lockheed Martin. (Bloomberg)

A group of large shipping companies said the International Maritime Organization’s Net-Zero Framework is too flawed to be fixed after the measures to curb emissions are adopted. (Lloyd’s List)

UPS is adding holiday surcharges to certain services to and from the U.S. (SupplyChainDive)

The Department of Transportation issued a request for information from shippers, carriers, law-enforcement agencies and others to help it combat cargo theft. (Commercial Carrier Journal)

 

About Us

Mark R. Long is editor of WSJ Logistics Report. Reach him at mark.long@wsj.com.

Follow the WSJ Logistics Report team on LinkedIn: Mark R. Long, Liz Young and Paul Berger.

 
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