The federal government shutdown, which kicked in at midnight, has markets on edge. The shutdown threatens to disrupt key economic data that the Federal Reserve would typically eye when determining its next policy move. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has said it won't issue any economic reports during the shutdown, meaning September's jobs report, scheduled for release on Friday, will likely be delayed. That will cast extra attention on this morning's ADP employment report. Private employers likely added around 45,000 positions in September, economists polled by The Wall Street Journal forecast, down from 54,000 in August. Meanwhile, the White House withdrew its nomination of E.J. Antoni to run the BLS. The agency has lacked a permanent leader since President Trump fired Erika McEntarfer, and the vacuum may add extra complexity to providing data.

Government funding lapsed early Wednesday morning after the White House and lawmakers failed to reach a spending deal, triggering a shutdown that is expected to halt some federal services and put hundreds of thousands of federal workers on furlough.

The shutdown could be more consequential than those that have happened in the past. Trump administration officials have said they plan to use the shutdown to reduce the size of the government, moving to cut jobs across agencies. That effort is already being challenged in court.

• What to Expect From the Federal Government Shutdown

The White House withdrew the nomination of conservative economist E.J. Antoni to run the Bureau of Labor Statistics, according to people familiar with the decision. A White House official praised Antoni and said the president will soon nominate a new candidate to lead BLS.

• Eurozone Inflation Picks Up Pace as ECB Looks Set to Hold Rates

8:15 a.m.: ADP National Employment Report
9:45 a.m.: US Manufacturing PMI
10 a.m.: ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI
10 a.m.: Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
11 a.m.: Global Manufacturing PMI
7 p.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks at the University of North Carolina
7 p.m.: U.S. tariffs on pharmaceuticals, kitchen cabinets, and trucks takes effect

8:30 a.m.: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

A U.S. government shutdown looks increasingly likely to disrupt the flow of data investors rely on to guess where the economy is heading. This could be one of the main consequences in case authorities fail to reach a deal, Evercore ISI's Sarah Bianchi says. Investors' memory, on the other hand, may ease fears of major economic damage. "They have been through enough shutdowns" to know the impact could be limited, she says. What could be different this time is the threat of mass layoffs raised by the Trump administration. Bianchi says it would likely lead to litigation. "There could be a lot of noise," she says. — Paulo Trevisani

Eurozone inflation data strengthens the case for the European Central Bank to keep interest rates on hold for the rest of the year, says S&P Global Market Intelligence economist Diego Iscaro. "The door to further cuts in the current cycle isn't firmly closed, but price pressures will need to ease considerably for them to be solidly back on the table," he says in a note. Inflation increased to 2.2% in September from 2.0% in August. However, the stickiness in inflation, alongside moderating wage growth, is resulting in a less supportive environment for household finances, Iscaro says. This will likely limit the upside for growth in the fourth quarter of the year, he adds. — Ed Frankl

India's central bank has left the door open to resume easing over the coming months, Capital Economics' Shilan Shah says in commentary. The Reserve Bank of India said, "current macroeconomic conditions and the outlook has opened up policy space for further supporting growth." The central bank's forecasts indicate expectations of a sizeable sequential slowdown in GDP growth, while weakness in inflation offers scope to resume the easing cycle, Shah says. Capital Economics remains comfortable with its forecasts of another 50 bps worth of cuts to the repo rate, bringing it down to 5.00% by early 2026. — Ronnie Harui

• Major Wall Street banks have kept their oil-price forecasts for the year largely stable as investors weigh concerns about an impending supply glut against risks of disruption to Russian supplies.
• Asian factory activity is diverging across the region as the full weight of U.S. tariffs starts to be felt, reshaping demand and supply dynamics for manufacturers.
• Sentiment among large Japanese manufacturers brightened slightly after Tokyo struck a trade deal with Washington, adding to the case for the Bank of Japan to resume hiking rates.
• South Korea’s exports grew at a faster-than-expected pace in September despite U.S. tariffs, buoyed by solid chip demand and more working days.

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.