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February 3, 2021 - Brief Issue 147

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University

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Top Headlines

Interim Trial Results Show Russia’s Covid-19 Vaccine is 92% Effective (Health & Science)

Surface Decontamination May Be a Largely Wasted Effort, Says Nature Editorial (Health & Science)

Indoor Dining to Resume in New York Despite Risks; Governor Cuomo Expands Covid-19 Vaccine Eligibility to Restaurant Workers (Health & Science)

Vaccine Doses to be Delivered to Pharmacies Next Week; States to Start Receiving 10.5 Million Doses Per Week (Health & Science)

Captain Tom Moore Dies at 100 After Contracting Covid-19 (Around the World)

Eurozone Economy Still in Trouble Due to Vaccine Delay (Around the World)

China to Send 10 Million Vaccine Doses to COVAX (Around the World)

Australia’s New South Wales Eases Restrictions (Around the World)

Singapore First in Asia to Approve Moderna’s Vaccine (Around the World)

Malawi Setting Up Field Hospitals Amid Virus Surge (Around the World)

Senate Democrats Push Forward With Party-Line Covid Relief (U.S. Government & Politics)

D.C. Seeks Restraining Order to Prevent Discussion of Potential Teacher Strike (U.S. Government & Politics)

Andrew Yang Tests Positive for Covid (U.S. Government & Politics)

Oil Companies Foresee a Slow 2021 Recovery Following a Brutal 2020 (U.S. Economy)

WSJ: Uber’s Deal with Drizly Will “Turbocharge” Alcohol Delivery (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 26,435,558 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 446,885 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 307,405,946 tests and distributed 52,657,675 vaccine doses, with 32,780,860 doses administered (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 103,918,285 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 2,254,307 deaths. At least 57,731,407 people have recovered from the virus.

Interim Trial Results Show Russia’s Covid-19 Vaccine is 92% Effective

According to a report published in The Lancet on Tuesday, Russia’s Covid-19 vaccine, Sputnik V, or Gam-COVID-Vac, is 92% effective at preventing Covid-19 in Phase 3 clinical trials (NPR, WaPo, Politico, WSJ). The trial was performed in approximately 22,000 participants aged 18 and over. About three-quarters of the clinical trial participants received the vaccine, with the remainder receiving the placebo.

The vaccine, which was administered in two doses, had no significant safety concerns and is in the top tier of effectiveness. Like other Covid-19 vaccines, Sputnik V appears most effective against severe disease, with no participants in the vaccine group reporting moderate or severe illness, compared to 20 in the placebo group. Sputnik V uses adenoviruses – modified, harmless versions of a virus that causes the common cold – to deliver the DNA of the coronavirus spike protein to cells in the body. The technology is similar to vaccines made by Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca.

The study results add legitimacy to the vaccine, which, despite a lack of clear results, has already been in use in Russia since November. Several other countries, including Egypt, Argentina, Mexico, India, and Hungary have already ordered doses of the vaccine. The vaccine is particularly attractive to low- and middle-income countries, who were largely shut out of ordering vaccines developed by Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna, the only other Covid-19 vaccines to have a reported efficacy above 90%. Bonus Read: “The Sputnik V Vaccine and Russia’s Race to Immunity,” (New Yorker).

Surface Decontamination May Be a Largely Wasted Effort, Says Nature Editorial

An editorial in the scientific journal Nature argues that surface disinfection may be taking up resources that could be better spent on mitigating risks of airborne transmission. The editorial urges the World Health Organization (WHO) and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to de-prioritize its recommendations to regularly clean surfaces as a way to prevent Covid-19 transmission. According to the WHO and the CDC, and in agreement with scientific consensus, surface transmission is rare. However, both agencies list frequent surface sanitization among their lists of important Covid-19 mitigation methods. Because of these guidelines, many institutions are spending their limited resources on decontamination measures that are unlikely to significantly reduce the spread of Covid-19. According to the editorial, these efforts would be better spent on improved ventilation, installing and testing air purifiers, and ensuring that people are masked and distancing.

Indoor Dining to Resume in New York Despite Risks; Governor Cuomo Expands Covid-19 Vaccine Eligibility to Restaurant Workers

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo announced last week that New York City could reopen indoor dining at 25% capacity starting February 14, should the situation continue to improve (NYT). Despite the downward trend in case numbers and hospitalizations, however, the city’s numbers remain high. Covid-19 hospitalizations, for example, were 60% higher when the governor announced the reopening than when he called for an indefinite shutdown. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention classifies indoor dining as a higher-risk activity. Mr. Cuomo acknowledged that plans to reopen public dining could change, particularly if viral variants cause new surges.

On Tuesday, Governor Cuomo announced that local governments could expand Covid-19 vaccine eligibility to include restaurant workers (NYT). Taxi drivers and residents of facilities for developmentally disabled individuals will also become eligible for vaccines. The decision to expand eligibility came after the Biden administration announced a five percent increase in vaccine allotments for states. Previously, Cuomo had declined to open up eligibility requirements, saying that the supply was insufficient. 

Vaccine Doses to be Delivered to Pharmacies Next Week; States to Start Receiving 10.5 Million Doses Per Week

The Biden administration announced Tuesday that Covid-19 vaccines would be shipped directly to pharmacies beginning next week (CNN). White House Covid-19 response coordinator Jeff Zients said that in the initial rollout, “many pharmacies across the country will not have vaccine, or may have very limited supply.” Starting on February 11, about 6,500 pharmacies will receive a total of 1 million doses, and the program will continue to expand to reach more people across the United States. The Biden administration views the pharmacy rollout as key to vaccine distribution. For many people, pharmacies are the most accessible health care facilities, and many pharmacies have been providing vaccines to their communities for years. Twenty-one national pharmacy chains, including Walgreens, CVS and Rite Aid, will participate in the initial phase of the program.

The White House also announced that it would increase the supply of Covid-19 vaccines sent to states by another five percent for the next three weeks, bringing the total up to 10.5 million doses per week (WSJ).

Concerns Mount Over Covid-19 Vaccine Inequities

As early data emerges about the demographics of Covid-19 recipients, a picture of clear inequities – most notably, along racial lines – is emerging. A Kaiser Health News report found that all of the 23 states that had reported demographic data were vaccinating White Americans at higher rates than Black Americans. An analysis by Politico found that just 5% of Covid-19 vaccines had been distributed to Black Americans, and only 11% were given to Latinos. People in poorer neighborhoods, who often lack high-speed Internet, the time necessary to navigate frustrating sign-up systems, reliable transportation, or paid time off of work for appointments, have found appointments in their neighborhood vaccine clinics taken by people in wealthier neighborhoods (NYT).

Experts say that the disparities reveal more than a reluctance to receive vaccines, and that the early data is a call to do more to facilitate vaccine access for poor and minority communities. Some cities have responded by reserving appointments for residents of certain districts, hiring more people to operate phone banks, setting up additional community clinics and running community outreach campaigns. Many states, however, do not even publish demographic data. Marcella Nunez-Smith, chair of the Biden administration’s Covid-19 equity task force, said that the lack of data "[doesn't] just hurt our statistics, they hurt the communities that are at the highest risk and have been the hardest hit." Bonus Read: “How New York’s Vaccine Program Missed Black and Hispanic Residents,” (NYT).

More Experts Promote Delaying Second Covid-19 Vaccine Doses to Prioritize First Doses for More People

Increasingly, public health experts are advocating for the practice of delivering first doses of Covid-19 vaccines to as many at-risk people as possible rather than ensuring that everyone gets their second dose on the recommended schedule (CIDRAP). This strategy has been employed in the U.K. and Israel, both of which are ahead of the U.S. in vaccinations. Although not as much data is available on the efficacy of available vaccines after a single shot, some evidence does show that the first dose offers significant short-term protection. Experts still advise that people receive both doses of the vaccine, but many believe that prioritizing first doses is in the best interest of public health. Dr. Marc Lipsitch of Harvard University said that the emergence of more-infectious variant strains makes it all the more urgent to get vaccines out as quickly as possible.

U.K. Coronavirus Variant Acquires Mutation that May Make it Less Susceptible to Vaccines

A coronavirus variant first identified in the U.K., known as the B117 variant, has gained a new mutation that may make it less susceptible to vaccines (CIDRAP, NYT, WSJ). The B117 variant is concerning to health experts because it is about 50 percent more contagious, making it more difficult to control. The viral variant has now spread to 80 countries, including the United States. 

Now, a report from Public Health England has said that the B117 variant has acquired an additional, single mutation known as E484K. Eleven cases of the new mutant have so far been reported. The E484K mutation is also present in the B1351 variant, first identified in South Africa. In the B1315 variant, this mutation has served to make vaccines less effective against the virus. The mutation, which affects the spike protein of the coronavirus, makes it more difficult for antibodies to recognize and neutralize the virus. Scientists say that it is not yet certain whether the mutation will affect the B117 variant in the same way. Bonus Read: “The Pandemic Won’t End Unless We Control Coronavirus Variants Everywhere,” (WaPo).

Bonus Reads: “One Case, Total Lockdown: Australia’s Lessons for a Pandemic World,” (NYT); “Covid-19’s Effects May Linger in Your Body, Even After Asymptomatic Cases,” (WSJ).

Around the World

Europe

Captain Tom Moore Dies at 100 After Contracting Covid-19

Captain Tom Moore, a World War II veteran who raised money for the National Health Service in England has died after testing positive for Covid-19. He was 100 (AP). Moore rose to fame this past year as he shuffled up and down his garden in a bid to raise money for health care workers, setting a modest goal of raising 1,000 pounds by walking 100 laps of his backyard. But his daily videos with his sunny outlook soon went viral and donations from across Britain and around the world poured in, bringing his total to some 33 million pounds ($40 million) (WaPo). Moore finished his 100th lap on April 16 with a military honor guard lining the path and in July, he was knighted by Queen Elizabeth II (NYT). Queen Elizabeth II plans a private message of condolence to the family, Buckingham Palace said. “Her Majesty very much enjoyed meeting Capt. Sir Tom and his family at Windsor last year,″ the palace said in a statement. “Her thoughts, and those of the Royal Family, are with them, recognizing the inspiration he provided for the whole nation and others across the world.”

Eurozone Economy Still in Trouble Due to Vaccine Delay

The eurozone economy shrank at the end of 2020, according to official figures released on Tuesday, and raising the possibility of a “double-dip recession” as many countries struggle to deliver vaccines (NYT). Economic output in the 19 countries that belong to the eurozone fell 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2020 from the previous quarter, according to a preliminary estimate by the European Union’s official statistics agency. For 2020, overall output fell 5.1%. Europe is likely to suffer continued economic contraction during the first quarter of 2021 and perhaps into the second quarter as restrictions on economic activity, says a report released on Tuesday by Oxford Economics in London. “There is definitely a risk that vaccine distribution continues to be disappointing,” said Tomas Dvorak, a eurozone economist with Oxford Economics. “There is risk that the second quarter will also get quite bad.” Previous projections by Oxford and other economists had shown a slow first quarter of 2021 followed by a marked improvement in the second quarter but that view was guided by the belief that governments would lift restrictions as vaccination campaigns gained momentum. 

Asia and Australia

China to Send 10 Million Vaccine Doses to COVAX

On Wednesday China announced plans to provide 10 million coronavirus vaccine doses to developing nations through the COVAX initiative (AP). Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said China is responding to a request from the World Health Organization, one of the coordinators of the COVAX initiative, which seeks to ensure low and middle-income countries have enough coronavirus vaccines. “We hope countries in international society with the capability will swing into action, support COVAX through practical actions, support the work of the World Health Organization, assist developing countries in obtaining vaccines in a timely manner and contribute to international society’s conquering the pandemic at an early date,” Wang said a daily briefing. China has already sent large amounts of domestically developed vaccines to developing countries and those vaccines are currently undergoing the approval process by WHO. 

Australia’s New South Wales Eases Restrictions

After 17 days without any local Covid-19 cases, Australia’s New South Wales will ease pandemic restrictions on restaurants and cafes (Reuters). The state tightened coronavirus restrictions in December after more than 100 cases were detected. Australia has managed to largely contain its coronavirus pandemic due to decisive and aggressive action. For example, on Sunday, Western Australia ordered about 2 million people in Perth into lockdown after a security guard tested positive and raised fears of more community transmission. 

Singapore First in Asia to Approve Moderna’s Vaccine

Singapore granted approval for Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine, the first country in Asia to do so, and said that it expects the first shipment to arrive in March (Reuters). Singapore already approved the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine and has already begun inoculating residents. As of Feb. 2, more than 175,000 individuals had received their first dose, according to the health ministry. 

Africa

Malawi Setting Up Field Hospitals Amid Virus Surge

A surge of coronavirus cases is threatening to overwhelm Malawi and the government is setting up field hospitals in hopes of saving as many lives as possible. President Lazarus Chakwera has been in office just six months but has lost two Cabinet ministers to Covid-19 and the surge in cases prompted him to declare a national disaster in all of Malawi’s 28 districts (AP). A presidential residence, a national stadium, and a youth center have been converted to field hospitals and the government has recruited 1,128 medical professionals. “The situation is quite desperate,” Chakwera said in a recent address, referring to the shortage of health infrastructure. “Although in my six months in office we set up 400 national treatment units, the current wave of infections has completely overwhelmed these facilities.” A more contagious strain of the virus first discovered in South Africa has been confirmed in Malawi. Chakwera ordered schools to close for at least 15 days and a nighttime curfew is being enforced; all gatherings are restricted to 50 people or less.

U.S. Government & Politics

Senate Democrats Push Forward With Party-Line Covid Relief

Senate Democrats believe they can pass their larger Covid relief bill with only Democratic backing, and are pushing forward while seeking Republican support for the existing proposal (Politico). Politico reported: “Democrats will take the first step Tuesday to set up a process that will allow them to pass a $1.9 trillion stimulus bill with a simple majority — a sign that leadership expects to have the full Democratic caucus on board.” On Tuesday evening, House Democrats took the initial procedural vote to move forward on the resolution, setting up party-line passage of the coronavirus relief bill in the Senate (WaPo). Senate Democrats could approve the budget resolution as early as Friday. Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) stated, “The sentiment is positive.” The move follows an overture from ten Republicans to Biden seeking a slimmed down relief bill that they said could deliver bipartisan support, and a meeting between Biden and the 10 Republicans who were seeking a smaller, $618 billion package. Also on Tuesday, a key Democratic senator announced he would support the larger package: Joe Manchin III of West Virginia said he would agree to move forward with the budget process “because we must address the urgency of the Covid-19 crisis” (NYT). 

D.C. Seeks Restraining Order to Prevent Discussion of Potential Teacher Strike

On Monday, in advance of students returning to in-person schooling on Tuesday, Washington, D.C. sought a restraining order from a judge to prevent the Washington Teachers’ Union from discussing a potential strike (WaPo). The Washington Post reports, “The move comes on the heels of marathon union meetings this past week in which members discussed possible strategies — including not showing up at school buildings and continuing with remote instruction — to oppose the city’s plan to return 45 percent of the teaching workforce to schools. The union’s members have not voted to authorize a strike, nor has leadership decided to pursue one, according to Elizabeth Davis, president of the Washington Teachers’ Union.” Davis told the Post, “Our members have not taken a strike vote.” If the order is approved, teachers could be held in contempt of court if they violate it. The Post writes, “In the District, it is illegal for government employees to go on strike. The city’s collective bargaining contract with the Washington Teachers’ Union prevents the union ‘from encouraging or supporting strikes or similar work stoppages,’ according to the filing for a temporary restraining order.” The city wrote in its request for the order, “Without this injunction, the District — and more importantly, its most vulnerable youth — will suffer profound and irreparable harm.” The teachers union maintains that the city has breached its contract with regards to safety as it reopens in person schooling.

Andrew Yang Tests Positive for Covid

On Tuesday Andrew Yang, current candidate for Mayor of New York and former candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination, announced that he had tested positive for Covid-19 (Politico, WSJ). Yang stated, “I am experiencing mild symptoms, but am otherwise feeling well and in good spirits,” adding, “I will quarantine in accordance with public health guidelines and follow the advice of my doctor.” His campaign stated that it is in the process of notifying those who may have had contact with Yang. Yang had already suspended public appearances on January 19 after a staffer tested positive but had returned to the campaign trail on January 27 after having received three negative test results on rapid coronavirus tests.

U.S. Economy

Oil Companies Foresee a Slow 2021 Recovery Following a Brutal 2020

Oil companies foresee a slow recovery in 2021 following a particularly “brutal” 2020 for the industry as a result of the pandemic, according to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). The Journal reports, “The big international oil companies are reporting one of their worst annual performances in decades and signaling that the pandemic could continue to challenge their businesses in 2021. Exxon Mobil Corp. and BP PLC. on Tuesday disclosed annual losses of $22 billion and $18.1 billion respectively, following Chevron Corp., which on Friday reported a $5.5 billion loss for 2020.” Exxon also reported that it had its fourth quarterly loss for the first time ever. 

UPS Posts Record Revenue Increase Fueled by Online Shopping and Amazon

On Tuesday, United Parcel Service (UPS) reported a record jump in its revenue, fueled mainly by online shopping and its role shipping Amazon packages in particular (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “UPS reported a 21% jump in fourth-quarter sales to $24.9 billion, a record for the company. Operating profit rose 26%, helped by added shipping fees and steps to curb volume during the peak season. UPS shares rose more than 4% as results topped expectations.” The record increase was fueled by the growth in online shopping as a result of the pandemic, and in particular by the company’s’ fulfilment of Amazon orders. The Journal reports, “Amazon.com Inc. paid the company $11.3 billion last year for shipping services, making up 13.3% of all revenue for the year, UPS Chief Executive Carol Tomé said Tuesday. That was up from 11.6% of all revenue in 2019. No other customer contributes more than 10% to UPS’s top line.”

U.S. Society

WSJ: Uber’s Deal with Drizly Will “Turbocharge” Alcohol Delivery

Home alcohol delivery is set to be turbocharged as rideshare company Uber announces that it has struck a $1.1 billion deal with alcohol delivery company Drizly (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “The deal could further accelerate the growth of online alcohol sales, traditionally a small slice of U.S. booze consumption that widespread shelter-in-place orders boosted last year. Tuesday’s announcement marks the largest deal to date in the U.S. online alcohol space, according to the Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America, a trade group representing more than 350 distributors.” Delivery business has helped maintain Uber as the stay-at-home orders and the pandemic have suppressed its ridership business. Uber previously acquired the food delivery company Postmates, making its food delivery business second only to DoorDash.

Analysis & Arguments

Jamelle Bouie argues that the 10 Republicans pushing a slimmer bipartisan stimulus bill have compromised backwards (NYT).

Ross Douthat writes on the long-haul Covid phenomena and chronic illness (NYT). 

James Hamblin writes on the Brazil variant and how it exposes the world’s vulnerability (Atlantic).

Andrea Zelinski writes on how the pandemic has affected the first weeks of Texas’ legislative session (Texas Monthly).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Jessica Scott and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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