Good morning. Any workers caught up in the Omnicom-IPG merger layoffs will be forgiven for not noticing, but we’re in the middle of a “Golden Age of Advertising.”

That’s according to a new research note by MoffettNathanson, whose analysts write:

U.S. ad spending as a share of GDP this year will top its previous high-water mark during the dot-com bubble, the analysts predict.

But, they argue, “this expansion is grounded not in exuberance but in something real: measurable, demonstrable returns on ad spend at a scale the industry has never seen before.”

That tracks—the ad market has sometimes seemed nearly as resilient to uncertainty and headwinds as the stock market—and is simultaneously kind of dissonant. Maybe that’s because a Golden Age of Advertising isn’t necessarily the same thing as a Golden Age of Marketing Creativity, Employment or Captivating Strategy.

The treasure, after all, is flowing through to data-driven performance ads sold on platforms like Google, Meta and Amazon, with a growing share for retail media. Who can deny the appeal of knowing which half of their ads work?

It just leaves CMOs and their teams increasingly dependent on just a few big powers, which in turn are pushing more and more spending into AI-powered planning and buying tools that automate nearly every step of digital ad campaigns.

“The idea is to relinquish control and trust the algorithm,” Zach Thompson, director of ad operations at the digital planning and buying firm Arm Candy, said when the WSJ Leadership Institute’s Patrick Coffee reported on AI “black boxes” last year.

So far, so good for marketers’ CFOs. But what’s happening to the opportunities to do marketing that stands out from the pack? Who’s having the Big Ideas, and are they empowered to pursue them?

I’m no analyst, but if I had to place bets I’d say that AI itself, the what’s-it-gonna-do-next? tech whose agents are poised to displace a lot of human agency, also offers the most what’ll-they-do-with-it-next? potential for marketing leaders and creatives alike.

I don’t mean slop, although I’m optimistic that generative abilities in the hands of Daisy’s Diner in Brooklyn and every other small business will eventually lead to some pleasant surprises.

I mean AI that supports the creative idea, like Heinz’s “A.I. Ketchup” campaign; AI that lets independent agencies punch above their old weight; and AI that helps “real artists ship,” including via vibe coding.

It’s a strangely nervous Golden Age. Let’s stay creative.

While many companies have retreated from social causes, Dr. Bronner’s Magic Soaps is taking increasingly controversial positions—and business has never been better.

Dr. Bronner’s over the past two decades has grown its annual revenue from $17 million to some $250 million, Hanna Krueger writes for the Journal. Along the way it has waged a series of loud, sometimes litigious campaigns for environmental, social and governance causes. Some examples:

• The family foundation regularly donates to refugee organizations.
• David Bronner, the company’s “Cosmic Engagement Officer,” visited Israel and Palestine this winter and wrote a blog calling out how “land is being annexed at an accelerating rate under military apartheid rule.”
• And in June, an iridescent Dr. Bronner’s bottle, produced with the American Civil Liberties Union in celebration of LGBTQ rights, will land on the shelves of some of the same retailers whose own commitments to social causes have quietly disappeared.

It’s a reminder that not every company is sitting on its hands.

On the right, Black Rifle Coffee has built a massive following by wrapping its beans in a pro-military, pro-Second Amendment packaging. On the left, Penzeys Spices has seen revenue climb even after its CEO used the company’s newsletter to call Trump “openly racist.”

Dr. Bronner’s has indeed gotten the criticism that many companies fear.

The “anti-woke” marketplace PublicSquare in 2023 called for a boycott due to its support for gender-affirming care. That year, Dr. Bronner’s saw a 17% increase in revenue.

The Justice Department has opened an investigation into whether the National Football League has engaged in anticompetitive tactics that harm consumers, Jessica Toonkel and Dana Mattioli report for the Journal.

The Sports Broadcasting Act grants the league limited antitrust protection to allow the teams to collectively negotiate packages of TV rights. That helped ensure that smaller-market teams could reach a national audience, and that fans could easily watch. 

But consumers back then were largely able to watch NFL games over broadcast TV. Now games are splintered among a host of TV networks and streaming platforms.

The NFL meanwhile has become a media juggernaut, able to use its still-massive viewership to command dizzying rights fees and marketing packages.

Media companies, regulators and members of Congress have agitating in recent months over how difficult it has become for consumers to watch their favorite games.

The investigation comes as the NFL is seeking to reopen its deals with networks to lock in higher rates.

WPP has begun exploring the possible sale of its public-relations business. [Times of London]

Tough-guy motorcycle brand Harley Davidson is running new ads playing up “fun and joy.” [WSJ] 

Five Guys began what it calls its biggest marketing campaign to date amid burger-quality efforts from the much larger McDonald’s and Burger King. [Restaurant Dive] 

Hiking and running-shoe brand Merrell doesn’t need people to find the “Great Outdoors”—just going outside will be plenty. [Marketing Brew]

Sports data provider Genius Sports named former LG Ad Solutions CMO Tony Marlow as its new chief marketing officer. [Gaming Intelligence]

Stagwell named Lena Peterson chief brand and communications officer. [O’Dwyer’s]

Intuit is closing its ad network for small businesses. [Adweek]

Meet Fan Social, a startup like Cameo but for real-life encounters with fame. [The Cut]