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What to Watch in Today's CPI Report; RBA Cuts Rates and Points to Further Easing

By Vicky Ge Huang

 

The consumer-price index is due out on Tuesday morning, offering the latest insight into how President Trump’s tariff policies are feeding into price pressures. Trump said on Monday that he plans to nominate E.J. Antoni, the chief economist at the Heritage Foundation, to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered its third interest rate cut since the start of the year, responding to evidence that inflation has cooled and new forecasts showing that it is likely to remain contained.

 

Top News

July Inflation Data: What to Watch in Tuesday’s CPI Report

Photo: Lucy Nicholson/Reuters

Prices likely rose 2.8% in the 12 months through July, according to economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. That would be a slight increase from 2.7% as of June. 

Core CPI is seen accelerating to 3.1%, up from a 2.9% rate as of June. The measure excludes volatile food and energy costs.

The report is due at 8:30 a.m. ET Tuesday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This is the first major data release from the BLS since a weak jobs report at the start of the month, after which President Trump fired the agency's head, Erika McEntarfer. The Trump administration has been interviewing potential replacements.

  • Trump to Nominate Bureau of Labor Statistics Critic to Lead Agency
 

Reserve Bank of Australia Cuts Rates and Points to Further Easing

The Reserve Bank of Australia's 25 basis point reduction in the official cash rate to 3.60% on Tuesday follows similar cuts in February and May, and takes RBA’s policy setting closer to neutral. Economists had expected the decision.

 

U.S. Economy

The Era of Big Raises for Low-Paid Workers Is Over

Wage growth for low-income workers looks to have significantly deteriorated in recent months, while wage growth for their higher-income counterparts has held up much better. It is a shift that could matter not just for low-paid workers, but the overall economy.

U.S. Small Businesses Brush Off Tariff Fears

U.S. small businesses grew increasingly upbeat in July as conditions improved, despite growing concerns over the jobs market. The main drivers of July’s better sentiment were respondents reporting improved business conditions and willingness to invest to expand.

Nvidia, AMD to Give U.S. 15% Cut on AI Chip Sales to China

Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices have agreed to give the Trump administration a portion of the sales from their artificial-intelligence chips to China, unusual agreements that deepen their relationships with the U.S. government.

Americans are Shouldering Most of Trump's Import Taxes

U.S. businesses have so far borne the brunt of costs from President Trump's taxes on imported goods, masking their impact on the economy. Wall Street believes it will soon be consumers' time in the barrel.

Car Buyers Are Showing Up to Auto Lots With Cash to Spend

The consumer economy is cooling and car prices remain vastly higher from just a few years ago. But there is little sign that high car prices at dealers’ lots are weighing heavily on overall sales trends, according to the head of auto lending at JPMorgan’s consumer and community bank.

No Tariffs on Gold, Trump Says

The U.S. won't apply tariffs on imports of gold, President Trump posted on Monday, following a ruling from Customs and Border Protection that had made the precious metal subject to steep duties.

 

Forward Guidance

Tuesday (all times ET)

8:30 a.m.: CPI
10 a.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Health Management Academy

Wednesday

7:45 a.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Greenville Chamber of Commerce
12:45 p.m.: FRB Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks at a luncheon in Red Bay, AL
1 p.m.: FRB Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks at Greater Springfield Chamber of Commerce event

 

Research

Investors Anticipate Global Stagflation in BofA Survey

Investors continue to expect stagflation in the global economy, or above-trend inflation combined with below-trend growth, according to Bank of America's global fund manager survey. The August survey shows 70% of investors expect global stagflation in the next 12 months, unchanged from July's percentage. Stagnation, or weak growth and low inflation, is expected by 12% of respondents compared to 10% in July. Some 7% expect a boom with above-trend growth and above-trend inflation, down from 10% in July. A goldilocks scenario of strong growth and low inflation remains anticipated by 7% of investors. — Renae Dyer

 

Basis Points

  • President Trump urged China to step up soybean purchases from the U.S., saying that would help cut China's trade surplus with America.
  • A $16 billion merger of two state-controlled shipbuilders in China is set for completion this week, creating the world’s biggest shipbuilder while the U.S. searches for a path back into the business.
  • German confidence in the economy sank back this month, buffeted by disillusion over the European Union’s trade deal with the U.S. and Germany’s weaker-than-expected economic performance in the second quarter.
  • The U.K.’s jobs market continued to cool in the second quarter as businesses grappled with an increase in employment taxes, uncertainty about the outlook for trade, and cautious consumers.
  • Norway’s sovereign-wealth fund returned 5.7% in the first half, driven by strong equity markets.
  • With the Trump administration gutting American humanitarian aid to Africa, refugees from war-torn countries have been reduced to literally fighting each other over the scraps of food that remain.
 

About Us

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.

 
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