Investors and policymakers are preparing for a raft of economic news this coming week, all while quarterly earnings season gets into full swing. The tentpole event is perhaps Wednesday afternoon, when the policymaking arm of the Federal Reserve, the Federal Open Market Committee, announces its next interest-rate decision. But analysts believe the FOMC’s decision is all but assured, and market participants will also be watching for gross domestic product, inflation, and employment data.

Correction: The Russian central bank's decision to lower its key interest rate to 18% from 20% was in line with investor expectations. Friday's newsletter incorrectly said the cut was larger than expected.

President Trump said he hoped that an offhand, passing observation from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell during their meeting Thursday could be interpreted as having deeper policy implications about the prospect for an interest-rate cut.

"He said to me very strongly, 'The country is doing well.' He said, 'Congratulations, the country is doing really well,'” Trump told reporters at the White House on Friday. “And I got that to mean that I think he's going to start recommending lower rates."

Higher tariffs on U.S. imports from Europe, agreed upon Sunday, will restrain economic growth in the eurozone, but that might not spur the European Central Bank into immediate rate cuts.

While many of the details of the agreement between President Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen remain sketchy, the tariffs that will apply to most of Europe’s exports to the U.S. will be higher than those assumed by the ECB’s economists when they last produced economic forecasts in June. Read more.

What is holding back Americans from borrowing more to fuel spending probably isn’t their level of debt. It’s the cost of it.

As debate rages about whether the Federal Reserve should slash borrowing costs, and how soon, the state of the consumer will be a key question. Some of the latest data points suggest that many consumers, particularly lower-income households, are slowing their spending—but could in theory borrow more on their credit cards to keep it going.

10 a.m.: U.S. Housing Vacancies
10:30 a.m.: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

8:30 a.m.: Advance Economic Indicators Report
9 a.m.: Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
9 a.m.: U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9 a.m.: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10 a.m.: Consumer Confidence Index
10 a.m.: Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
7 p.m.: U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting

The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at its July meeting on Wednesday, but as soon as Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference begins, attention will shift to the September meeting, where traders have basically assigned coin-flip odds to a cut. Yet Powell may not have much to say about how the Fed is leaning, economist Michael Feroli of JPMorgan writes: "Powell can reasonably highlight that there are two employment reports, and two inflation reports between now and the September meeting, and that those will be important guides for thinking about the next meeting in September." The June dot plot penciled in a couple 2025 cuts at the median, but Powell might be inclined to downplay its projections as a snapshot of a moment in time. — Matt Grossman

The Trump-Powell tug-of-war about interest-rate cuts looms over the upcoming Fed meeting, but markets could be in for a treat, RBS's Andrzej Skiba says. While Powell is expected to reaffirm the Fed's independence and keep rates on hold, he may also offer an "olive branch" and crack the door open for a cut if inflation behaves as expected, Skiba says. One thing that could scramble the path to lower rates would be an escalation in trade wars stoking inflation fears. Otherwise, an economic cooldown should allow the Fed to start cutting, he says. — Paulo Trevisani

The Federal Reserve will likely resume its rate-cutting cycle at the FOMC meeting in September, Julius Baer analysts write in a note. A weaker economic outlook points to the U.S. central bank implementing looser monetary policy in 2H, they say. Uncertainty surrounding inflation in the wake of higher tariffs stands in the way of an interest-rate cut this month, as does political pressure from President Trump to lower rates, they add. Beyond July, stagnating private consumption and lower investment plans, which suggest softening demand, will justify a less restrictive policy stance despite inflation being above target, they say. —Jiahui Huang

• Reporters will be tempted to pepper Fed Chair Jerome Powell with questions about pressure from the White House to cut rates and about President Trump's disparagement of the Fed's headquarters renovation. But so far, Powell has deflected nearly all such talk in his public remarks and isn't likely to change course now, JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli writes. (Dow Jones Newswires)
• A promising mining find in Wyoming aims for lightning-fast production of a resource that is a key chokepoint in America's standoff with China. Federal officials have signaled a potential investment in the project of close to $500 million. Yet the company behind it is a penny stock.
• A pointed question from Chinese leader Xi Jinping asking why local officials insist on crowding into the same industries reflects Beijing’s mounting concerns over excess capacity.
• Malaysia's central bank lowered its growth and inflation forecasts for the Southeast Asian country, citing rising global trade tensions and geopolitical risks. Bank Negara Malaysia now projects the economy to expand between 4% and 4.8% in 2025, down from its previous forecast of 4.5% to 5.5%. (Dow Jones Newswires)

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by news associate Roshan Fernandez in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to roshan.fernandez@wsj.com.