Grasp the pattern, read the trend
Asia in Review
No. 3, January/2021, 3
Brought to you by CPG
Dear Readers,
The AiR team is presenting this week's issue of the Asia in Review updating you on the latest events and developments in constitutional politics and governance, geopolitics and international relations in Asia.
I wish you an informative read.
With best regards,
Henning Glaser
Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)
Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU
Main Sections
Law and Politics in East Asia
Law and Politics in South Asia
Law and Politics in Southeast Asia
International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia
Announcements
Law and Politics in East Asia
China/Hong Kong: First anti-government website blocked under national security law
(dql) Hong Kong Broadband Network (HKBN), one of the city’s largest telecoms provider, has confirmed that it has blocked the anti-government website HK Chronicles to comply with a related police order issued under the Hong Kong national security law. HK Chronicles had published material primarily pertaining to the anti-government protests in 2019 and operated as a pro-democracy doxing platform, disclosing personal information of police officers and pro-Beijing supporters.
The shutdown of the website marks the first censorship of website under the Beijing-imposed legislation. The city’s courts have been bypassed in this process. [Hong Kong Free Press] [AiR No. 2, January/2021, 2]
Critics of the move see it as a step towards to the end of what has thus far been a relatively free and open internet in the former British colony, warning of a possible buildup of a censorship system resembling China’s “Great Firewall.” [Canberra Times] [AP]
For insights into recent regulatory efforts of the Chinese Communist Party (CPP) to strengthen its control over the internet see Willy Wo-Lap Lam in [Jamestown Foundation: China Brief 1] who suggests that they are part of a set of recent measures aimed at preserving political stability and further cementing Xi Jinping’s grip on power ahead of the politically important centenary of the Chinese Communist Party in summer this year.
For estimates on spending for monitoring and removing web content in China in 2020 totaling at least than 6.6 billion USD see Ryan Fedasiuk in [Jamestown Foundation: China Brief 2].
China: Unsafe drinking water provided to 100 million Chinese
(dql) Findings of a study of Tsinghua University revealed that almost 100 million Chinese have been supplied with drinking water with levels of toxicity above safety limits. The study was based on observations of the levels of per and polyfluoroalkyls (PFAS) in more than 60 cities with a total of population of 450 million.
PFAS are man-made chemicals widely used in the industry which, once in the water, end up in homes and the food chain. Since there are no national safety standards, the the US state of Vermont's regulations were taken as the benchmark in the study. [Asia News]
China/Hong Kong: Civil service union disbanded amid new allegiance pledge requirement for civil servants
(dql) Hong Kong’s Civil Service Bureau last week released a notice demanding that all civil servants sign a document to pledge to “uphold the Basic Law of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People’s Republic of China, bear allegiance to the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People’s Republic of China, be dedicated to my duties and be responsible to the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.” An attachment to the declaration document describes behaviours considered a violation of the loyalty pledge, including "promoting or supporting Hong Kong independence, refusing to acknowledge China’s sovereignty over Hong Kong, as well as seeking foreign powers to interfere with the city’s affairs," as well as expressing in their official capacity in public a view different from the government.
The requirement applies to nearly 180,000 public servants in the city, who have been hired before July 1 last year, the day after the imposition of the Hong Kong National Security Law. In an earlier move, government made it mandatory for more than 4.000 civil servants who joined from July 1 to sign the allegiance declaration, with those refusing to sign risking to lose their job. [Civil Service Bureau, Hong Kong] [Reuters]
In response, the Union for New Civil Servants, a Hong Kong civil service union established during the 2019 pro-democracy protests, was disbanded. The union cited for its decision expectations that it will have not sufficient personnel as it is expected that officers of the union will be unable to remain in the government, leading to their disqualification as member and officers of the union. [Hong Kong Free Press]
Critics view the demand for the allegiance pledge as latest attempt of the government to crack down on dissent within the ranks of the government. [South China Morning Post] [Jurist]
Japan: Court declares defunct eugenic law unconstitutional
(dql) Last week, a Japanese court ruled that Japan’s now-defunct Eugenic Protection Law which mandated the government to prevent people with disabilities from having children was unconstitutional, saying that there was “no room to ‘justify’ the law that infringed on a person’s decision regarding whether to bear or raise a child.”
The court, however, rejected the claim for damages of the plaintiff, who had been sterilized against his will back in 1960.
Japan’s Eugenic Protection Law, in force between 1948 and 1996, legalized the sterilization of people with intellectual disabilities, mental illnesses or hereditary disorders to prevent the birth of "inferior" children. Under the law, around 25.000 people were sterilized, including around 16.500 who underwent surgery without their consent. [Mainichi]
South Korea: Jail sentence for former President Park upheld by Supreme Court
(dql) Ending a lengthy legal process, South Korea’s Supreme Court last week upheld a 20-year jail sentence for former President Park Geun-hye on corruption charges over which she was impeached in 2016. The impeachment was confirmed by the country’s Constitutional Court in 2017, making Park South Korea’s first democratically elected leader to be thrown out of office. [France 24]
Finalizing of her prison term opens for Park the avenue of a special presidential pardon. Such a pardon for her and her predecessor Lee Myung-bak has been proposed by the leader of President Moon Jae-in's Democratic Party earlier this month as a gesture of national unity. [Korea Herald]
Speculations on such a presidential move have widely spread since then. But in a latest development, Moon in his new year’s press conference Monday clear made that he won’t grant the pardons in the near future arguing that given, that the legal processes have only been concluded recently and that both continue to deny their past wrongdoings and refuse to accept the court rulings, granting an amnesty would lack a consensus in the society which is highly divided in this question. [Yonhap]
Taiwan: Supreme Court orders retrial in Sunflower Movement case
(nm) The Taiwanese Supreme Court this week ordered the retrial of eight Sunflower Movement activists who had been sentenced by the High Court to two to four years in prison over their occupation of the Executive Yuan complex in 2014. The guilty verdicts have been revoked and the case is remanded to the High Court.
The Supreme Court held that the defendants were merely exercising “civil disobedience” or their “right of resistance” and should thus receive more lenient sentences. Last year, the High Court had sentenced the activists for inciting others to commit crimes related to the occupation of the Executive Yuan during a 23-day student-led protest against
Protesting against the then-Kuomintang (KMT) government’s handling of a trade in services agreement with China, in March and April 2014 several hundred students broke into the Legislative Yuan with thousands more gathering outside the complex. The eight defendants were part of a group of students that broke into the Executive Yuan and were forcibly removed by the police. [Focus Taiwan] [Taipei Times]
Taiwan: High-profile corruption cases moving forward
(nm) A report of the Judicial Yuan investigation revealed that 20 Supreme Court and High Court judges and senior officials as well as 20 prosecutors and judicial investigators were found to have engaged in illegal activities, including bribe-taking, abuse of authority, and conflict of interest.
The report was issued after the Control Yuan’s earlier findings implicated more than 200 judicial personnel in a corruption scandal around former Supreme Court judge Shih Mu-chin and businessman Weng Mao-chung. Last year, the Control Yuan – the government’s oversight body – had begun impeachment proceedings against Shih over alleged breaches of the Judges Act as well as over failure to avoid conflicts of interest.
Judicial Reform chairman Lin Yung-sung, meanwhile, voiced sharp criticism, stating that the case had severely eroded faith in Taiwan’s justice system and has shown that the “justice system is rotten to the core.” Together with other judicial reform proponents, Lin also called on the Control Yuan to conduct a more thorough investigation of the case. Control Yuan members also told Premier Su Tseng-chang that the case had seriously affected Taiwan’s international image of good governance and would harm its evaluation in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index. [Taipei Times 1] [Taipei Times 2]
Taiwan: DPP municipality councilor recalled
(nm) Taoyuan City Councilor Wang Hao-yu of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was recalled in a popular vote last week, marking first recall of a councilor in a special municipality. More than 92% of votes were cast in favor of the recall while nearly 8% were cast against, with a voter turnout at 28%.
Wang had become target of public discontent in the city after issuing a controversial statement about a Kaohsiung politician of the main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), who committed suicide.
Taoyuan belongs to the six special municipalities in Taiwan, large metropolitan areas which account for over 60% of Taiwan's population. The other five special municipalities include Taipei, New Taipei, Taichung, Tainan, and Kaohsiung. [Focus Taiwan] [Taipei Times]
The DPP expressed regrets over the recall and criticized the KMT’s removal campaigns against DPP officials as another DPP Kaohsiung independent city councilor is facing a recall in a vote on February 6, supported by the KMT, which, in contrast, has voiced hope to use the momentum of the successful recall to also drive its referendum pork containing ractopamine. [Taiwan News 1] [Taiwan News 2]
Law and Politics in South Asia
India: Supreme Court orders indefinite stay over implementation of contentious agricultural laws
(lm) India’s Supreme Court (SC) on January 12 temporarily paused the implementation of the three agricultural laws that have caused farmers to stage a mass protest against Prime Minister Narendra Modi and block major roads leading to New Delhi [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1]. The court’s decision came a day after it had expressed its “disappointment” over how the federal government had introduced the reforms and the manner in which it had conducted the ensuing negotiations [see AiR No. 2, January/2021, 2]. [Financial Times]
Further, the SC set up a committee of experts to mediate between the government and representatives of protesting farmers. The committee will submit a report to the court in two months from its first meeting, which is due to be held before January 23. Yet, the agitating farmers already announced that they would not participate in discussions with the court-appointed panel, alleging that all four committee members were strong campaigners for the laws. [The Straits Times 1]
The SC on January 12 also agreed to hear the government's petition to stop a rally planned by farmers on January 26, when India celebrates its Republic Day to honor the date on which the Constitution of India came into effect. [The Straits Times 2]
Nepal: Rival faction threatens to expel Prime Minister Oli from ruling Nepal Communist Party
(lm) Factional leaders of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal have called on Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli to explain in writing the motives behind his decision to dissolve the lower house of parliament – a move that allegedly defied party rules, policies, and statue. The two leaders gave the prime minister three days to respond and threatened to terminate his party membership in case the response will be found wanting. [The Himalayan Times]
Nepal: Constitutional Bench begins hearing on dissolution of lower house of parliament
(lm) The Supreme Court (SC) on January 18 began the hearings on the constitutionality of the dissolution of the lower house of parliament [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4]. Previously, the SC rejected petitioner’s claim to refer the case to an 11-member grand full bench and decided that the case would be heard by a five-member constitutional bench, instead. Separately, the SC also rejected on January 15 rumors that four justices had recently met with Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli. [The Himalayan Times 1] [The Himalayan Times 2]
Throwing into doubt the political future of Nepal, the prime minister on December 20 dissolved the lower house of parliament and called for early elections [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4]. Responding in writing to a show-cause notice earlier this month, the prime minister described his decision as a “purely political” move that would not warrant a judicial review [see AiR No. 1, January/2021, 1, also AiR No. 2, January/2021, 2].
Further elaborating his motives, the prime minister goes on citing “the doctrine of necessity” to argue that continuous infightings in the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) had paralyzed both government and Parliament. Further, Prime Minister Oli also argues that the resumption of the winter session of the National Assembly is proof that he did not have any mala fide intention in dissolving the House of Representatives [see AiR No. 52, December/2020, 5].
Pakistan: Government approves reform package for Auditor General of Pakistan
(lm) The federal government on January 12 approved legal amendments for laws governing the work of the Auditor General of Pakistan (AGP), the supreme audit institution tasked with ensuring public accountability, fiscal transparency, and oversight in governmental operations. [Profit by Pakistan Today]
Considering the organization’s pivotal role in bringing about improvements in the financial discipline and minimizing the possibility of waste and fraud, the amendments are aimed at extending the AGP’s purview to autonomous bodies which had hitherto been getting their accounts audited from private firms. [Dawn]
Sri Lanka: New Constitution will be tabled in Parliament before the end of the year, says minister
(lm) The government is planning to draft a new constitution and present it to Parliament before the end of this year, the minister of education said on January 18. Further elaborating, the official said an expert committee chaired by the President’s Council has already been appointed for this purpose. [ColomboPage]
Law and Politics in Southeast Asia
Cambodia: Exiled opposition leader denied entry
(nd) In an effort to attend in person the mass trial against her and more than 100 defendants, exiled former minister and opposition figure Mu Sochua, vice president of the now-banned Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), was denied entry into Cambodia for a lack of a visa. After her Cambodian passport was revoked in 2019, she was travelling on her US passport now. Mo Sochua went into exile along with many other opposition politicians in late 2017 after the CNRP was dissolved by the Supreme Court, which was followed by a broader crackdown on oppositional voices and independent media. [Asia Times]
Indonesia: New police chief selected
(nd) President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo selected the Head of the police’s Criminal Investigation Agency Gen. Listyo Sigit Prabowo for the top position as National Police. His appointment still needs the approval of the House of Representatives, which, however, is expected to happen smoothly due to the comfortable majority the government coalition holds in the House. Gen. Listyo served as the district police chief in Solo in 2011, when Jokowi was still the mayor. [Jakarta Globe]
Indonesia: President to back rights committee’s suggestions in FPI killing case
(nd) Following a probe into the killing of six members of the now-disbanded Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) in December, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo followed recommendations of the National Commission on Human Rights (Komnas HAM) to charge the police officers who shot. Komnas HAM’s investigation found evidence of rights violations in the killing of four of the six men, who were shot in police custody.[Benar News]
Laos: PM Thongloun leader of the communist party
(py) Incumbent Prime Minister Thongloun Sisoulith was elected Secretary-General of the communist Lao People's Revolutionary Party (LPRP) which is ruling the one-party state. It is expected that the new leadership will gear the country further towards China. [Nikkei Asia] [Radio Free Asia] [Freedom House]
Malaysia: Opposition decisively challenging the state of emergency
(nd) Following the declaration state of emergency last week, Malaysia’s opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim announced to submit an appeal to King Al-Sultan Abdullah to end its imposition. The emergency will suspend parliament until August, giving time and broad executive power to Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s who hold a razor-thin majority in parliament, which was shaken several times in the last quarter of 2020 until the recent withdrawal of support by lawmakers eliminated his slight majority. In a letter to federal lawmakers, Anwar voiced an accusation that PM Muhyiddin misled the King and emphasized, the provisions under existing laws were sufficient to contain the spread of the pandemic. While the Prime Minister claims that the latest Covid-19 figures were pushing Malaysia’s health care system to the breaking point, opposition parties and non-government groups raised alarms for abuse of powers, foreshadowing a crackdown on government critics. Referencing investigations last year against opposing journalists, rights workers and lawmakers, they stated that freedom of speech shrank constantly since Muhyiddin has taken office.
For Malaysia, it was the first imposition of an emergency in over 50 years, and the second time parliament has been suspended since independence from Britain in 1957. [Voice of America] [South China Morning Post]
Meanwhile, former member of Pakatan Harapan, Datuk Seri Khairuddin Abu Hassan, initiated a lawsuit against PM Muhyiddin Yassin and his government questioning whether a prime minister who no longer has the majority in the House can still advise the King to proclaim an Emergency State and still can suspend the Parliament’s sittings. Khairuddin is known to have been politically affiliated with former Prime Minsiter and opposition heavy weight Mahathir Mohamad. [Malay Mail]
Myanmar: NLD meets with ethnic parties
(lf) Myanmar’S governing National League for Democracy (NLD) met again with several ethnic parties to discuss the possibility of forming a unity government in the multiethnic country. [Irrawaddy 1] The Shan Nationalities League for Democracy Party (SNLD) which holds a total of 42 parliamentary seats has already agreed to cooperate with the NLD and also offered to mediate between the NLD and other ethnic parties. [Irrawaddy 2]
Myanmar: Democracy still under threat
(lf) Despite new elections and a massive win for the re-elected National League for Democracy (NLD), the state and outlook of liberal democracy in Myanmar remains dire. See for an analysis a recent piece of the East Asia Forum Finding a sign of hope in the agreement between ethnic parties and the NLD to form a democratic federal union. [East Asia Forum]
Myanmar: Police clash with protestors
(lf) On Saturday, police clashed with supporters of infamous Buddhist firebrand monk Ashin Wirathu who has been imprisoned for the last two months after he surrendered himself to face a sedition charge. Wirathu, who is well known for his fiercely violent anti-Muslim rhetoric, recently become increasingly critical towards the National League for Democracy government of Aung San Suu Kyi. [Reuters] [AiR No 44, November/ 2020, 1]
Philippines: Further discussions on proposed charter amendment
(nd) Amid worsening Covid-19 numbers, discussions on the proposal of a charter change, the so-called Cha-Cha, continue. Members of the House of Representatives’ committee on constitutional amendments reiterated that prospective changes would make the country more investment friendly with regards of land ownership and stake holding in companies, in order to boost the Covid-19-striken economy. Critics however see it as an attempt to crackdown on leftist party-list groups and the communist insurgency. One option would be if Congress turns itself into a constituent assembly, through a resolution passed by both chambers.
Previous attempts for a charter change were opposed by the Senate, which now is tilting in President Rodrigo Duterte’s favor, making an extension of his office term realistic, with allies in both chambers of Congress appearing to be pushing the proposed charter changes. Following the 1987 constitution though constitutional changes were designed difficult, requiring a three-quarter majority and mandating an independent bicameral legislature as check on the executive, but the constitution is ambiguous if that majority can also be found in a combined constituent assembly. The 1987 constitution and its formalities were prompted by Ferdinand Marcos’s attempt to exceed his fixed term by 14 years. [South China Morning Post]
Philippines: Student protests
(nd) Following a government decision to allow security forces to patrol all campuses of the University of the Philippines (UP) in suspension of a 1989 agreement with the defense ministry, Philippine students and activists launched protests in various parts of the country. In its effort to end the country’s Maoist-led rebellion, which remains one of the world's longest insurgencies with more than 40,000 people killed, the government argues that the university is a breeding ground for communist rebels, claiming a number of UP students were members of the communist party's armed wing. [Channel News Asia]
Singapore: American care packs to needy residents in Singapore
(py) As part of events leading up to the January 20th inauguration of US President-elect Joe Biden, the American Chamber of Commerce in Singapore along with the American Association of Singapore have organized the distribution of care packs to needy residents in Singapore. [The Straits times]
Thailand: Lese majeste laws increasingly fielded against protesters, critics
(nd) Prime Minister General (ret.) Prayut Chan-o-cha has urged various state agencies – the Ministry for Digital Economy and Society Ministry (MDES), the Department of Special Investigation, the Technology Crime Suppression Division (TCSD), and the Foreign Affairs Ministry – to intensify and speed up investigations against online violations of the country’s lese majeste laws. Last week, 41 people were charged under the law for insulting the monarchy. A MDES division meanwhile submitted court-approved orders against Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and other websites, requesting to suspend public access to 9,192 posts. [Chiangrai Times]
Moreover, a blogger was sentenced to four years and six months for insulting the late King Bhumibol online. Since he had been in prison awaiting trial for an even longer time alraedy, he will, however, not have to serve the sentence any more. The man announced, however, to appeal the verdict. [Khaosod English]
In another recent case, a former civil servant was sentenced to a record prison term of 43 years and six months for the same charges. After the 2014 military coup led by now Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-O-Cha, she shared an audio critical of the monarchy on the internet. Until this recent verdict, a prison sentence of 35 years given in 2017 to a man for a social media posts hold the record of the longest lèse majesté sentence issued in Thailand. [Channel News Asia]
Thailand: Reconciliation committee to meet for the first time
(nd) This week the government-sponsored reconciliation committee which is tasked with resolving political conflicts as they are reflected most visibly by Thailand’s resuming street protests has met for the first time without any representatives from opposition parties and protest groups, which both reject the committee for whose mission they see no sincere basis. [Bangkok Post]
Thailand: Anti-government protests resumed
(nd) Last weekend, Thailand’s student-led protests have resumed again after some weeks of break and despite the imposition of yet another emergency law to curb the recent (still moderate) spike in Covid-19 cases. Among other issues, protesters criticized the government’s use of the harsh lese majeste laws after at least 42 of their peers have just been charged under the law. Meanwhile, the police chief announced toughening police action against the protesters while two unknown suspects on a motorcycle threw a so-called ping-pong bomb on a group of anti-government demonstrators, injuring four. [Bangkok Post] [Voice of America]
Moreover, a 25-year-old volunteer guard of the protest movement claimed to have been abducted and held for 12 hours for questioning inside a van, inter alia about an antimonarchy sign that was erected during weekend. The police said the it was not an action by police forces and that it was investigating the incident. Protesters accused the authorities of intimidation tactics. [South China Morning Post]
Thailand: Volunteer guard allegedly abducted
(nd) A 25-year-old volunteer guard for the protest movement claimed to have been abducted and held for 12 hours for questioning inside a van, inter alia about an antimonarchy sign that was erected during weekend. The police said the it was not an action by police forced and was investigating the incident. Protesters accused the authorities of intimidation tactics. [South China Morning Post]
Vietnam: Authorities intensify repression ahead of all-important 13th National Congress
In the run-up to the all-important 13th National Congress of the ruling Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) [see AiR No. 1, January/2021, 1], authorities have added new information controls, setting up an “Anti-Fake News Center”. Further, in a stern warning to potential candidates and media, an official overseeing the confidential election told state media that anyone responsible for leaking or publishing false or secret information about the process would be punished under Vietnamese law. [Hanoi Times] [Radio Free Asia]
International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia
China in the “U.S. Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific”
(dql) Shortly before Joe Biden will be sworn in as US President in this week, the Trump administration declassified and published the “U.S. Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific”, approved by President Trump in 2018 and stamped secret and not for release to foreign nationals until 2043.
The 10-page national security strategy paper identifies maintaining “U.S. strategic primacy over the Indo-Pacific region,” and promoting “a liberal economic order, while preventing China from establishing new, illiberal spheres of influence and cultivating areas of cooperation to promote regional peace and prosperity” one of three national security challenges, along with North Korea’s threat to the US and its allies as well as the advancement of US global economic leadership.
Furthermore, the document assumes that the “[s]trategic competition between the United States and China will persists,” with China “circumvent[ing] international norms and rules to gain advantage,” and seeking to “dissolve U.S. alliances and partnerships,” in order to “exploit vacuums and opportunities created by these diminished bonds.”
As an desired outcome with regards to China, the “United States and its partners on every continent” shall become “resistant to Chinese activities aimed at undermining their sovereignty, including through covert or coercive influence.” [White House, USA]
For a concise assessment of what has been achieved under this strategic framework, see Grant Newsham in [Asia Times] who argues that “Trump and his staff are handing off to Joseph Biden an Indo-Pacific that is better off than it was in 2017.
China-US relations: Trump administration continues to crack on Chinese firms, bans cotton from all Xinjiang, and slaps sanctions linked to Hong Kong
(dql) The US Department of Defense last week added nine further Chinese firms to its blacklist of companies believed to be owned or controlled by the Chinese military including mobile phone maker Xiaomi and plane maker Comac. The latter is crucial to China’s efforts to produce narrow-body planes that can compete with Boeing and Airbus. The listed companies are subject to a new U.S. investment ban under which forces American investors are forced to divest their holdings of the sanctioned firms by Nov. 11, 2021. [Reuters 1]
In a separate move, the US Department of Commerce imposed sanctions on Chinese firms and military officials over Beijing's actions in the South China Sea, forbidding US citizens and entities to do business with them. Among them are state-owned China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China’s third-largest national oil company, and Chinese aviation firm Skyrizon, which in 2017 attempted a takeover of Ukraine’s military aircraft engine maker Motor Sich in 2017, raising concerns that advanced aerospace technology would end up being used for military purposes. [South China Morning Post]
The US Customs and Border Protection, meanwhile, announced to block imports of cotton products and tomatoes originating from China's Xinjiang region, citing “information that reasonably indicates the use of detainee or prison labor and situations of forced labor," including debt bondage, restriction of movement, isolation, intimidation and threats, withholding of wages, as well as inhumane working and living conditions.
The import blockage is the latest, yet most sweeping, in a series of moves of the Trump administration to pressure China over its treatment of the Muslim Uyghur population in Xinjiang where it accuses Beijing of systematic human rights violations against the ethnic group, especially of holding more than 1 million Uyghur in internment camps for political re-education. In November Washington blocked of goods from one Xinjiang-based company that controls about a third of cotton production in the region and about 6% of all cotton globally. In July the US imposed against Chinese officials held responsible for human rights violations against the Muslim minority in Xinjiang. [CNN] [Channel News Asia] [AiR No. 28, July/2020, 2]
Xinjiang produces 85% of China’s cotton, much of which is exported to other countries for processing. In 2020, the US imported cotton goods from China worth about 9 billion USD while 10 million USD in tomato products entered the US from China. According to estimates of human rights organizations one in five cotton garments around the globe contain cotton from Xinjiang. [Politico]
In a related development, the UK announced that it will introduce new rules for companies in a bid to prevent goods linked to forced labor in Xinjiang from entering the supply chain. The new rules will allow for a more robust guidance for due diligence on sourcing, a toughening of the Modern Slavery Act to ban from government the contracts of any companies that do not comply to procurement rules, and the launch of a Xinjiang-specific review of export controls. [VoA]
In a further move, US Secretary of State Pompeo announced sanctions against six Hong Kong or Chinese officials over their roles in implementing the Hong Kong national security law in the wake of the recent arrest of more than 50 pro-democracy activists under the legislation. [RT] [AiR No. 2, January/2021, 2]
In response, China Foreign Ministry announced that China will retaliate with sanctions on "U.S. officials, members of Congress, personnel at non-governmental organisations and their family members over their 'nasty behaviour' on the Hong Kong issue. [Reuters 2]
Japan to join US satellite constellation initiative
(dql) Japan’s government has announced that it will consider joining the US "satellite constellation" initiative and contributing to it through the production and launch of some of the satellites used in the system. Japan’s plan to join the initiative is an attempt to respond to the increasing sophistication of new types of missiles in China, Russia and North Korea which are difficult to be intercepted with existing missile defense systems including Chinese and Russian hypersonic missiles and Pyongyang’s missiles which are capable of following irregular trajectories at a low altitude.
In its budget of fiscal year 2021, Tokyo has allocated 1.63 million USD for related surveys and research including on optimal altitudes to detect and track hypersonic glide weapons with the satellite constellation system, along with another 11.5 million USD for the technological development of high-sensitive, small and lightweight infrared ray sensors.
Washington plans to first launch 20 satellites by 2022 and increase the number to 250 by 2025, with the ultimate goal to deploy more than 1.000 satellites for the detection and tracking of missiles, reconnaissance and monitoring of the ground, and getting a grasp of space debris. [Mainichi]
Japan-South Korea relations: Diplomatic feud over comfort women ruling heats up
(dql) In a recent ruling a South Korean court ordered the Japanese government to pay damages to 12 South Korean “comfort women”. [AiR No. 2, January/2021, 2] Recent official related statements in both countries indicate a further worsening of already highly strained relations.
On the one side, Japan appears not willing to accept the ruling. Japan’s Foreign Ministry called it a “violation of international law,” and demanded that South Korea “take appropriate action to correct,” the court’s decision, adding that it was the responsibility of Seoul to “bring wisdom together” and suggest a solution. Lawmakers of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party urge the government to take decisive action, suggesting to take South Korea to the International Court of Justice or to delay sending it’s the new ambassador to South Korea. [Kyodo News]
On the other side, South Korea’s Foreign Ministry declared that it respects the court’s decision, and requested Japan to avoid ‘excessive responses’ to the court’s ruling, while South Korean President Moon Jae-in urged Japan to “swiftly work toward ‘future-oriented’ bilateral relations,” and to continue dialogue in spite of pending issues between the two nations. [Korea Times] [Yonhap]
Video talks between both countries’ diplomats held on Friday to discuss the issue ended inconclusive. The press release of the South Korean Foreign Ministry summarized the outcome, stating that both sides agreed on the importance of “continu[ing] communication and dialogue to resolve pending issues,” as well as “close consultations going forward.” [Korea Herald]
North Korea: Kim Jong-un vows to step up efforts to boost military capabilities and nuclear deterrence
(dql) On last Thursday, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un concluded the 8th Workers’ Party Congress last week with a call for increased military power and greater nuclear war deterrence of the country, adding that need to have the military “thoroughly prepared to play their role against any form of threats or unexpected situations.” [Korea Herald]
This echoes his remarks at the congress’ opening session in which he called the US the country’ “foremost principal enemy,” and the “fundamental obstacle to the development of our revolution.” declared that Pyongyang would "approach the U.S. on the principle of answering force with toughness."
Furthermore, he pledged to develop more sophisticated nuclear weapons, including a nuclear-powered submarine, tactical nuclear weapons and advanced warheads designed to penetrate missile defense systems. Meanwhile, the military parade following the closure of the congress showcased the country’s submarine-launched ballistic missile, along with a new short-range ballistic missile, resembling Russia’s Iskander with an operational range of up to 400-500 kilometers. [Yonhap] [AiR No. 2, January/2021, 2] [CNN]
The statements and the parade come shortly before US President-elect Joe Biden assumes office this week and signal Kim’s continued strategy to press the US to resume talks on his own terms.
Taiwan-US relations: Declassified strategy document shows support for Taiwan
(nm) The recently declassified and published “US Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific” – a 10-page report approved for implementation by President Trump in 2018, that had been stamped secret and not for release to foreign nationals until 2043 – contains US affirmations towards Taiwan.
Under the assumption that “China will take increasingly assertive steps to compel unification with Taiwan,” the framework stipulates “defending the first-island-chain nations, including Taiwan,” as part of a defense strategy against China, while seeking to “[e]nable Taiwan to develop an effective asymmetric defense strategy and capabilities that will help ensure its security, freedom from coercion, resilience, and ability to engage China on its own terms.” [White House, USA]
In response, China’s Foreign Ministry s urged the US “to turn away from an erroneous and dangerous path that could jeopardize peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, and harm China-US relations.”
The Taiwanese government, meanwhile, confirmed that the reference to asymmetrical warfare in the framework is in line with Taiwanese military’s focus in crafting an innovative and asymmetric fighting force in the next few years. [Bloomberg] [Taipei Times 1] [Taipei Times 2][news.com.au]
Meanwhile, the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), a US think tank, has recently released its Preventive Priorities Survey in which it has listed a possible conflict between the US and China over Taiwan as a tier-1 concern, which might lead “to a severe crisis with the United States.”. An armed confrontation in the South China Sea involving US and Chinese forces – in 2020 a top-tier concern – is judged as tier-2 concern for this year.
The annual report identifies potential violent overseas conflicts where US troops might be deployed in the year ahead, and ranks them in a three-tiered system according to their possibility. [CFR][Focus Taiwan 1]
The release also comes after a week of dynamic US-Taiwan relations. On Tuesday of last week, a highly anticipated visit to Taiwan by US ambassador to the UN Kelly Craft was cancelled as the US State Department had cancelled all visits ahead of the inauguration of incoming President Joe Biden in order to carry out transition duties. Instead of an in-person meeting, Craft and President Tsai Ing-wen held a video conference during which Craft affirmed the close relation between the US and Taiwan, stating the US “stands shoulder to shoulder with Taiwan as pillars of democracy.” They also discussed Taiwan’s international participation, bilateral cooperation, and shared democratic values. [Taiwan News] [Focus Taiwan 2]
Furthermore, US and Taiwan representatives to Switzerland and the Netherlands met after the US unilaterally ended its restrictions on official contacts between Taiwan and the US on January 9. [Focus Taiwan 3]
Taiwan-Denmark relations: Danish parliament considers supporting Taiwan’s WHA bid
(nm) Denmark’s parliament is considering passing a resolution supporting Taiwan’s efforts to rejoin the World Health Organization (WHO), despite opposition from China. According to a Facebook post by Taiwan’s office in Denmark, six out of ten political parties represented in the Danish parliament are supporting the resolution which asks the WHO to invite Taiwan to the World Health Assembly (WHA) as an observer. The WHA is the WHO’s decision-making body.
The resolution has now passed a first reading and is currently being reviewed by the Foreign Affairs Committee.
Taiwan has been expelled from the WHO since the People’s Republic of China took its seat in 1972, and has not been able to participate in the WHA, except from a period between 2009-2016, when the Kuomintang party (KMT) was ruling. Taiwan has been praised internationally for its successful handling of the COVID-19 outbreak. The European Parliament also recently passed two resolutions supporting Taiwan’s bid to participate in the WHO. [Focus Taiwan] [Taipei Times]
Mongolia: NATO concludes project boosting Mongolian cyber defense capacity
(dql) On Monday NATO celebrated the successful completion of a project that ran between 2017 and 2020 and is designed to strengthen Mongolia’s cyber defence capacity. Supported by NATO’s Science for Peace and Security (SPS) Programme, it includes the set up of a Cyber Security Centre for the Mongolian Armed Forces and specialized training and equipment as well as technical support from the NATO Communications and Information Agency. [NATO]
China, Pakistan pose potential threat, says Indian Army Chief Naravane
(lm) Indian Army Chief General Naravane said on January 12 that Pakistan and China continue to pose threats to the northern and eastern borders of India, adding that India was facing the possibility of a two-front conflict due to increased cooperation between the two countries. While addressing the media on the eve of India’s Army Day, Naravane also commented on the ongoing border stand-off with China in the Himalayan region of Ladakh, saying that Indian troops deployed along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) were prepared to “hold our ground as long as it takes”. [The New Indian Express]
While initially confirming the recent re-deployment of some 10,000 Chinese soldiers from some training areas on the adjacent Tibetan plateau [see AiR No. 2, January/2021, 2], the army chief also dampened expectations by adding that no change of posture had occurred on friction points along the LAC, where both sides had entered a winter deployment situation. [Anadolu Agency]
Talks between the two countries have all but been deadlocked since military officials last met in December – after more than 40 days without any dialogue – with both sides reinforcing their positions and digging their heels in, since then. [AiR No. 52, December/2020, 5]. Observers of the months-long stand-off suggest the current pause in talks might be a strategic maneuver by Beijing as it casts an eye on Washington to get a better sense of what US President-elect Joe Biden’s policy toward China will entail. [South China Morning Post]
In this context, two recent events assume added significance, as they may be shaping Beijing’s considerations of US policy. To begin with, the outgoing US ambassador to India confirmed earlier this month that Washington and New Delhi had been working in “close coordination”, to help India counter what he referred to as “sustained […] aggressive Chinese activity on its border”. While the ambassador declined to provide further details, there is a good case to believe that New Delhi is relying on Washington for sharing geospatial data from airborne and satellite sensor [see AiR No. 44, November/2020, 1], as well as emergency purchases of cold-weather equipment for its personnel in the Himalayas [see AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3].
A case in point, photographs recently published by a US-based imaging company suggest that China continues construction work along the borer areas with India. [The Times of India]
What is more, a 2018 US document on its Indo-Pacific strategy was declassified on January 11, laying bare Washington’s view that India was “pre-eminent in South Asia” and that a “strong India” would “act as counterbalance to China”. [The Wire] [U.S. Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific]
Bangladesh, China, Myanmar to hold tripartite meeting on Rohingya repatriation on January 19
(lm) A secretary-level meeting between Bangladesh and Myanmar will be held on January 19 in Dhaka to discuss the repatriation of Rohingya refugees. China will join the meeting as mediator. The last tripartite meeting on Rohingya repatriation was held in January last year. While Myanmar has shown little cooperation since then, Bangladesh is hopeful some headway will made at the upcoming meeting, according to Bangladesh’s foreign minister. [South Asia Monitor] [Radio Free Asia]
Bangladesh and Myanmar first signed a repatriation deal in November 2017, followed by a physical agreement in January 2018, to facilitate the return of Rohingyas to Rakhine State in Myanmar. The countries had set two dates to begin the repatriation – November 2018 and August 2019 – but refugees were reluctant to return to what they said was a hostile environment in Rakhine. Authorities in Bangladesh more recently then started relocating Rohingya refugees from crammed camps near the Myanmar border to a settlement on what the UN and rights groups worry is a dangerous low-lying island prone to cyclones and floods [see AiR No. 52, December/2020, 5].
The upcoming meeting assumes added significance, because recent developments may spur China to pressure Myanmar on the issue: In a 134-9 vote with 28 abstentions the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) on December 31 approved a resolution strongly condemning rights abuses against Rohingya Muslims and other minority groups in Myanmar, including arbitrary arrests, torture, rape, and deaths in detention [see AiR No. 1, January/2021, 1].
Sri Lanka: President Gotabaya Rajapaksa announces revival of tripartite East Container Terminal (ECT)
(lm) While meeting with trade unions, Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa announced on January 13 the revival of the East Container Terminal (ECT) investment project to develop a deep-sea terminal in Colombo harbor. Further elaborating, the president said the terminal will be developed with 51 percent ownership by Sri Lanka’s government and the remaining 49 percent as an investment by Indian multinational conglomerate Adani Group and other stakeholders, including Japan. [Al Jazeera]
In the run-up to the general election, Colombo last year had suspended the tri-nation project, which India, Japan, and Sri Lanka were to jointly implement [see AiR No. 28, July/2020, 2]. New Delhi and Tokyo consider their presence in the Colombo Port a strategic necessity in the face of China’s presence in the adjacent Colombo International Container Terminal, a flagship $1.4 billion project in Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) [see AiR No. 40, October/2020, 1]. Considering that approval came after Colombo had reviewed its “regional geopolitical concerns”, the recent visit of Indian Minister of External Affairs, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, assumes added significance [see AiR No. 1, January/2021, 1].
In December 2017, Sri Lanka had handed over another deep seaport located in the south of the island after the port, after the port was operating at a loss and couldn’t generate enough revenue to repay the loan the country had received to build it [see AiR December/2017, 3]. The $1.12 billion deal, first announced in July 2016, allowed a Chinese state company to take over the port in Hambantota, which straddles the world’s busiest east-west shipping route, on a 99-year lease.
Dhaka-Washington ties will remain strong under new US administration, says US envoy
(lm) The United States ambassador to Bangladesh has said that the bilateral relations between Washington and Dhaka will only get stronger, with no major changes under President-elect Joe Biden. Further elaborating, the ambassador also ensured that Biden‘s administration will continue to make the Indo-Pacific, and South Asia in particular, a significant priority. [United News of Bangladesh]
The remarks come after months of coordinated effort by the United States to entice Bangladesh into closer embrace as a key Indo-Pacific partner in South Asia, at a time when China has increased engagement with countries in the region through its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) [see AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3, AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3].
They also come just days after Bangladesh on January 13 strongly condemned remarks by United States’ Secretary of State Mike Pompeo implicating the South Asian nation as a possible location for operations of Islamist terrorist group al-Qaeda. [Al Jazeera] [Anadolu Agency]
Sri Lankan Tamil parties call on UN to probe war crimes during Sri Lankan Civil War
(lm) In an unprecedented show of unity, Sri Lanka’s major Tamil political parties have signed a joint statement, calling on members states of the UN Human Rights Council (UN HRC) to declare that Colombo has failed to establish a judicial mechanism to assess violations of humanitarian international law committed during its Civil War. Noting that there is “no scope” for a domestic accountability mechanism, the signatories also call for the establishment of an International Independent Investigatory Mechanism (IIIM). [Economy Next] [The Hindu] [Tamil Guardian]
Context and timing of the announcement are noteworthy: For a start, the UN HRC is scheduled to hold its 46thRegular Session from 22 February to 19 March later this year. It also comes just a week after authorities announced they would rebuild a war memorial commemorating the Mullivaikkal massacre, just two days after they had ordered its demolition [see AiR No. 2, January/2021, 2].
Last January, the government of Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa withdrew its co-sponsorship from the UNCHRC’s landmark resolution 30/1, which sought to promote reconciliation, accountability, and human rights in Sri Lanka [see AiR No. 8, February/2020, 4, AiR (3/3/2019)], instead promising to pursue a national effort to achieve “sustainable peace” through an “inclusive, domestically designed and executed reconciliation and accountability process”. However, to this date, Sri Lanka has not delivered on the commitment it made to ensure justice is served for the Tamil community. What is more, successive leaders have steadfastly refused to investigate allegations of war crimes or prosecute their perpetrators, even promoting some of them to top positions within civilian and military institutions [see e.g., AiR No. 7, February/2020, 3].
Pakistan, Turkey, Azerbaijan issue joint “Islamabad Declaration”
(lm) Turkey, Pakistan, and Azerbaijan have agreed to formulate a joint strategy in which they agreed to support each other on various international forums on matters pertaining to territorial conflicts. The agreement was reached on January 13 at the Second Trilateral Meeting between the three countries, attended by Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, and his Pakistani and Azerbaijani counterparts, Shah Mehmood Qureshi and Jeyhun Bayramov. [Anadolu Agency] [Hurriyet Daily News]
For a start, successive Pakistani governments have backed Ankara’s position on the Cyprus dispute, an ethnic dispute between Turkish and Greek Cypriot communities. Moreover, Islamabad and Ankara already have a substantive defense and security cooperation, which was initially boosted with significant defense deals in 2018, elevating Turkey to become Pakistan’s second-biggest arms supplier after China [see AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4, AiR No. 46, November/2019, 2]. Ankara is currently building four MILGEM-class war ships for the Pakistan Navy, inter alia, while it also has purchased 52 Mashahk training aircraft from Islamabad.
Located at the crossroads of Eastern Europe and Western Asia, Azerbaijan has had close ties with both Pakistan and Turkey since becoming an independent state in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union. More recently, Turkish-made unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) gave Baku the upper hand in the military escalation with Armenia, which relied on tanks, artillery, and missiles. [TRT World]
While Ankara already has a strong strategic military partnership with Baku, Islamabad is also looking to strengthen bilateral military ties. Just earlier this month, the air chiefs of Azerbaijan and Pakistan met and discussed joint pilot training and military exercises. [Daily Pakistan]
Pakistani security forces launch offensive in Balochistan province
(lm) Following the killing of 11 coalminers belonging to the Shi’ite Hazara community [see AiR No. 1, January/2021, 1], Pakistan has launched a large-scale offensive in the province of Balochistan province, the providence’s home minister announced on January 11. Coming in the wake of the death of Karima Baloch, a Pakistani Baloch human rights activist and dissident, the announcement has raised concerns that the operation is also aimed at dealing a long-lasting blow to the struggle for independence of Balochistan. [Daiji World]
Analysts believe the brutal killing of the coalminers by Islamic State militants to be the latest in a series of attacks targeting projects under the China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor (CPEC), the $50 billion Pakistan component of China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The city of Bostan, which is set to become one of a total of nine Special Economic Zones under the second phase of CPEC, is located just 100 kilometers north of the village where the coalminers were killed. Hence, the deadly attacks have put Pakistan in a tight spot, given that Beijing has long been pressing Islamabad to crack down on both ethnic separatist groups as well as IS militants to protect projects linked to the CPEC [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]. [Nikkei Asia]
Nepal to establish Economic Zones along borders with India, China
(lm) Nepal is planning to establish four cross-border economic zones, two each along the borders with India and China – as part of efforts by Kathmandu to boost trade and investment with its two neighboring countries. [The Kathmandu Post]
Among the country's trade partners, India accounts for the largest share of exports and imports. In the last fiscal year, more than 60 percent of Nepal's total foreign trade was done with India. China, in turn, is Kathmandu’s second largest trading partner, accounting for little more than 15 percent of Nepal's imports but only a small portion of its export trade.
Kathmandu last year started construction on a dry port in its far western province of Dodhara-Chandani, which provides the shortest route to the sea. The first business gateway to India from Nepal’s Far-Western Development Region, the inland terminal will provide access to India’s largest seaport, Jawaharlal Nehru Port in Mumbai, and facilitate Nepal's foreign trade and lower costs.
At UN, Pakistan calls for outlawing violent nationalist groups
(lm) Laying out an “action plan” before the 15-member United Nations Security Council (UNSC), Pakistan has urged the principal organ to designate “violent nationalist groups”, including India’s right-wing, Hindu nationalist organization Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), as proscribed outfits, saying they would pose “a clear […] danger to regional and international peace and security”. [The Express Tribune] [Anadolu Agency]
RSS is the progenitor and leader of a large body of organizations called the “Sangh Parivar” (Family of the RSS) that also includes the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
India Army showcases drone technology during Army Day parade
(lm) During the Army Day parade held in New Delhi on January 15, the Indian Army for the first time demonstrated its intend to deploy unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAV) for future offensive military operations, including Kamikaze strikes and supplying troops closest to the area of conflict with equipment. [New Indian Express]
Taking place against the larger backdrop of the Sino-Indian border stand-off, the demonstration lends further credence to theories highlighting the emergence of a new kind of air warfare. While drones are vulnerable to anti-aircraft weapons, so the argument goes, in localized smaller military engagements – the one along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) being a case in point – they do play a vital role. Lending further credence to these analyses, the army last week also signed a contract to buy undisclosed quantities of high-altitude drones from ideaForce, India's largest manufacturer of unmanned air vehicles for defense, homeland security and industrial applications, for $20 million. [The Economic Times]
Indian Navy holds pan-India coastal defense exercise
(lm) The Indian Navy on January 13 concluded its two-day biennial coastal defense exercise “Sea Vigil 2021” to review its coastal security preparedness. First conducted in 2019, the exercise covers India’s entire coastline, involving 13 coastal states and union territories along with other maritime stakeholders, including fishing and coastal communities. [The Hindu] [The Times of India]
The “Sea Vigil” coastal defense exercise is also considered a build-up towards the major Theatre-level Readiness Operational Exercise (TROPEX), an inter-service military exercise involving the participation of the Indian Army, Air Force, Navy, and the Coast Guard. The exercise generally commences at the beginning of each year and lasts a month. [South Asia Monitor]
Pakistan Navy successfully test-fires anti-ship missiles, torpedoes
(lm) Pakistan’s Navy sank a retired ship on January 12 using missiles and torpedoes launched from submarines in the Arabian Sea. [Anadolu Agency]
The exercise came after the navy last month assumed command of the Combined Task Force 151 (CTF-151), a multinational naval task force conducting counter-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden and off the eastern coast of Somalia. The command of CTF-151 was previously held by the Turkish Navy.
European Union provides EUR 35.75 million in grant to Sri Lanka
The European Union (EU) announced the signing of three grants worth EUR 35.75 million which will support Sri Lanka’s justice sector, help improve food safety, and strengthen efforts to mitigate climate change. The grants were signed on behalf of the Government of Sri Lanka by Secretary to the Treasury and were presented by the Ambassador of the Delegation of the European Union to Sri Lanka. [ColomboPage]
United Kingdom keen to boost trade with Pakistan
(lm) During a visit to the Islamabad Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ICCI), the British Deputy High Commissioner in Karachi has conveyed London’s interest in increasing bilateral trade with Pakistan. The two countries identified four areas for close cooperation, namely healthcare, education, green energy, and infrastructure. [The Express Tribune]
Since the transition period for Brexit ended on December 31, the United Kingdom is free to negotiate its own trade deals with other countries, like the United States. To reduce the adverse effects of the economic disruption, London has been looking for trading opportunities elsewhere. In mid-November Prime Minister Johnson announced a major addition to the UK government’s ability to attract foreign investment, in the form of a newly established Office for Investment.
Shortly thereafter, India and the UK held ministerial talks to review their progress towards a bilateral post-Brexit Enhanced Trade Partnership, which could lead to a free trade agreement in the future. London has also proposed establishment of a UK-Bangladesh Trade and Investment Dialogue aimed at deepening the trading relationship between the two countries. A government to government (G2G) trade meeting is set to be held in later this month. [AiR No. 49, December/2020, 2]
Chinese envoy meets Maldives Foreign Minister Abdullah Sahid
China’s ambassador to the Maldives has met with Maldivian Foreign Minister Abdullah Sahid to discuss ways for enhanced and closer corporation between two countries in 2021. [South Asia Monitor]
As the country has so far been unable to offset the impact of the drastic reduction in tourism activity caused by the coronavirus pandemic, Malé is currently seeking a loan restructuring from Beijing. Beijing has already reduced last year’s loan repayment to $75 million from the scheduled $100 million under the G20 ‘Debt Service Suspension Initiative’, and agreed to partially suspend debt repayment applicable to $600 million in loans for a period of approximately four years [see AiR No. 44, November/2020, 1]. Earlier last month, China then agreed to defer repayment for loans which were secured via state-owned companies [see AiR No. 49, December/2020, 2].
China’s vaccine diplomacy in Southeast Asia
(nd) After Chinese company Sinovac announced a 78% efficacy rate during its trials of CoronaVac, Brazilian scientists reported a significantly lower rate of 50,4 %, casting doubt on China’s so-called “vaccine diplomacy” in Southeast Asia. The World Health Organization’s (WHO) threshold for advised use is 50%. Indonesia’s own trials found an efficacy of 63,3%, with Indonesia’s food and drug agency to be the first in the world to approve use of the Sinovac vaccinations. Despite the high numbers and the prominent vaccination of President Joko Widodo, the Indonesian population is rather reluctant to receive a shot due to concerns over safety and efficacy. [Asia Times]
Thailand and the Philippines have also already purchased doses of CoronaVac, with Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte criticizing Western vaccination makers for their unscrupulous prices. Vaccinations produced by Moderna and Pfizer-Biontech have shown efficacy rates of about 95%, but are more expensive and have to be transported and stored in costly freezers. Besides the price and its availability, buying Chinese vaccinations will potentially bring more general benefits, with China having already announced it will look kindly on purchasers of its products. [Asia Times]
Despite China being the country’s closest ally and economic patron, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen announced last year to only purchase WHO-approved vaccines, which to date doesn’t include any of the at least four vaccinations produced by China, which prompted observers to state that it will take the country until at least mid-2022 to be able to vaccinate more than 60% of its population. The Chinese government and state media downplayed the efficacy results, but they still raised already existing public doubt over the reliability of Chinese vaccinations, and the more general notion of unsafe and hasty production of vaccinations against Covid-19 generally. Yet, early this week Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen accepted a donation of one million Sinopharm vaccine doses from China, contradicting previous pledges. Hun Sen argued amid a Thai Covid-19 case surge, he cannot afford to wait, and referred to the rollout of the vaccine in China, Indonesia, Egypt and Brazil. [Nikkei Asia]
During his visit to the Philippines, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi promised half a million doses of Covid-19 vaccines, US$1.34 billion in loan pledges for infrastructure projects and US$77 million (500 million yuan) in grants. Philippine Foreign Minister Locsin, however, also made reference to the South China Sea dispute. According to observers, in light of the incoming Biden administration, the donation and investment in infrastructure was an effort to present itself as a partner to revive heavy-hit economies in the regions. [South China Morning Post]
Myanmar, China to further push for implementation of BRI projects
(nd) Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his visit to Myanmar, brought donations of COVID-19 medical supplies, voiced support for the government’s peace talks with ethnic armed groups and urged a quicker project progress of Chinese-led infrastructure projects, which form a part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Special reference was made to the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) as the flagship project under the BRI, including a railway and gas and oil pipelines. China has a vital strategic interest in stable access to the Indian Ocean from its southwestern provinces, which is why it is also getting involved in furthering peace talks. In Rakhine state, Myanmar’s military and the rebel Arakan Army (AA) have been fighting for two years, which resulted in the killing of about 300 civilians, and displacing of about 230,000 people. The temporary ceasefire has been in place since November 8.
While the economic benefits of the infrastructure projects for Myanmar have been doubted by observers, rights groups urge the government to be more transparent to the public and listen to the locals with respect to existing land issues. [Radio Free Asia]
Myanmar ends concession to Thai-led construction consortium
(nd) A consortium which was led by Thai construction company Italian-Thai Development Public Co. Ltd. (ITD) and was to build the Dawei Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in Southern Myanmar to transform the region into Southeast Asia’s largest industrial complex was notified by the Burmese government of the termination of their involvement due to its failure to comply with the concession agreement and substantial delays. The project site is adjacent to the Andaman Sea and near the Gulf of Thailand, connecting the Indian and Pacific Oceans and linking the broader regions with each other, and includes a deep seaport to avoid the crowded Malacca strait for the transportation of goods. It is backed by the Thai government and a priority for the National League for Democracy-led government.
The initial agreement with the Italian-Thai Development Public Co. Ltd. (ITD) dates back to 2008 and was scheduled to be completed in 2015, with Japan being involved at a later stage. Following renegotiations between 2016 and 2018, it was agreed upon that ITD received a concession to develop the initial phase, with Japan becoming a third stakeholder. [Irrawaddy] [Asia Times]
Thailand arrests Thai police officers accused of smuggling Burmese migrant workers
(nd) Thailand’s deputy national police chief confirmed that at least 33 Thai police officer were involved in human trafficking on the Thai-Myanmar border. They are now facing criminal prosecution.
He added that another eight civilians who are part of the smuggling gang, which transported the migrants to work in a seafood center in Samut Sakhon, the epicenter of a recent outbreak of Covid-19 outbreak. Samut Sakhon hosts many factories employing migrant workers, especially from Myanmar. [Irrawaddy]
Indonesia: Chinese survey ship driven off Natuna Islands
(nd) The Indonesian Maritime Security Agency (Bakamla) intercepted a Chinese survey ship sailing near its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) off the Natuna Islands with a switched off automatic identification system (AIS). The United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) entail provisions that require all ships transiting archipelagic states to have functioning AIS.
The incident comes shortly after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to Jakarta and amid already heightened concerns over China’s increased militarization of the contested South China Sea.
Earlier this month, the Bakamla was armed by the Indonesian coast guard with 20 submachine guns for 10 of its patrol boats and also permitted to acquire military-grade weapons themselves, with the rationale that they are still heavily underequipped in comparison to the Chinese coast guard. In November, the announcement to move the headquarters from Jakarta to the Natuna Islands in light of Chinese and Vietnamese fishing boats encroaching in their EEZ, signals the need to respond faster and more determined in order to protect maritime sovereignty. [Radio Free Asia] [Asia Times]
Indonesia, Malaysia to cooperate on palm oil promotion
(nd) In light of international criticism against palm oil and the circumstances of its production, the world’s largest producers, Indonesia and Malaysia, are planning to join forces to run an advocacy campaign in Europe. Therefore, they have engaged through the Council of Palm Oil Producing Countries (CPOPC), in a request to hire an advocacy firm to change the negative perception of the product.
Producers are accused of destroying biodiversity rich rainforest and mistreatment of migrant workers. In the EU, the discussions around the European Green Deal could result in restrictions for the use of palm oil, a commodity used in various products ranging from lipstick and pizza to biodiesel. In 2019 the EU decided to phase out palm oil by 2030 due to deforestation concerns, with companies having launched “palm oil-free” products. While the exports to India and China are much higher, the sentiment in Europe is important for the global reputation of the commodity.
This is the first time the two countries are working together against the threats to their good. [Reuters]
Announcements
Upcoming Online Events
19 January 2021 @ 5:30 pm IST, Centre for Policy Research, India
Flies without borders: Lessons from Chennai for improving the organisation of municipal public health services in India
This workshop considers India’s public health situation and proposes different measures the central government could take to improve public health outcomes, not only in response to Covid but also on a more routine basis. To this end, it looks at Tamil Nadu’s health system which illustrates how to use public funds more effectively for protecting people’s health.
For more information, please visit [CPR].
19 January 2021 @ 4:00 pm CET, European Council on Foreign Relations, France
The impact of European policy on the migration crisis
This online seminar is part of a partnership between the H2020 project MAGYC and ECFR Paris, entitled “Crises, migration and European cooperation”. Three researchers and a correspondent will take a closer look at European cooperation and the migration crisis. Registration is required.
If you are interested in joining this webinar, please visit [ECFR].
19 January 2021 @ 3:00 pm CET, The Swedish Institute of International Affairs, Sweden
Washington’s Old “Japan Problem” and the Current “China Threat”
This webinar asks: Do the economic ‘China threat’ today and the ‘Japan problem’ of the 1980s in US discourse point to a problem closer to home? In her new book, From 'Japan Problem' to 'China Threat'? Rising Powers in US Economic Discourse, Nicola Nymalm shows that the ‘new era’ in US-Chinese relations, that scholars and policymakers have been announcing since the beginning of the Trump presidency, was long in the making. It rests on longstanding discourses on the USA’s main economic competitor.
For more information, please visit [UI].
19 January 2021 @ 11:00 am CET, European Council on Foreign Relations, France
The crisis of American power: How Europeans see Biden’s America
As the new US administration is about to enter into office, this webinar will launch an exciting new report based on public opinion polling of more than 15,000 people in 11 countries on European attitudes towards the US. Its main findings are that Europeans are rejoiced about Biden’s victory but they do not believe that he will bring back America as a global reader, but rather that China will be more powerful than the US in a decade and that Europe can no longer rely on the US for their defence. The panel will also consider what geopolitical consequences European leaders should draw from these results.
For more details and information on how to register, please visit [ECFR].
20 January 2021 @ 3:00 pm JST, Sasakawa Peace Foundation, Japan
SPF NUS-ISAS Joint Webinar Part 2 – Institutionalising the Quad: Can it Seize the Moment for the Future?
This seminar co-organized by the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, National University of Singapore, and the Institute of South Asian Studies (NUS-ISAS) will discuss future trajectories of the Quadrilateral Security Initiative – between Japan, Singapore, Australia, and India – and its influence in the region, especially in consideration of China’s growing influence. It also asks: How willing are the Quad members in coordinating their security policies and agreeing on explicit military and diplomatic commitments?
Information and registration details are accessible under [SPF].
20 January 2021 @ 7:00 pm IST, Centre for Policy Research, India
Budget 2021: The Macroeconomic Battles Ahead
As the global health crisis has crippled the already-strained Indian economy, this discussion will address the macroeconomic challenges India faces and how the Finance Minister can deliver "a budget like never before", that puts India on the path to recovery and that ensures growth and boosts demand.
For more information, please visit [CPR].
20 January 2021 @ 8:30 am CET, European Council on Foreign Relations, France
Europe & Japan relations after the US election
After the US election the new Biden administration’s handling of international relations is faced with high expectations, considering the unpredictability that has marked the past four years. This webinar therefore asks: How will the new administration impact US Indo-Pacific strategy and China policy? What will this mean for key allies such as Europe and Japan?
For more information and access to the livestream, please visit [ECFR].
21 January 2021 @ 4:00-5.15 pm GMT+2, Finnish Institute of International Affairs, Finland
After hedging: The implications of the Biden administration for EU strategic autonomy
This event will discuss crucial questions pertaining to the EU strategic autonomy in the wake of incoming US President Joe Biden who announced “America is back at the table” and pledged to work closely with transatlantic allies and through multilateral settings.
More details in the webinar at [FIIA].
21 January 2021 @ 11:00 am IST, Association for Democratic Reforms, India
Voting facilities for the Migrant Workers
This online event featuring officials of the Election Commission of India and scholars will look at voting facilities for migrant workers.
Please visit [ADR] for details and information on how to join the webinar.
21-22 January 2021 @ 11:00 am GMT, German Institute for Global and Area Studies, Germany
Non-Western Actors in Africa: Interests, Conflicts and Agency
This workshop brings together seven contributions of scholars from different parts of the world who seek to explore recent cases of non-western actors reviving and/or expanding their engagement in Africa. The AEGIS CRG group is also looking for new members and two new convenors - please attend the workshop if you are interested.
If you are interested in this two-day webinar, please follow [GIGA] for details and registration.
21 January 2021 @ 3:00 pm CET, Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance, Switzerland
Climate Change, Gender-based Violence: Implications for the Security Sector
In this panel, experts from Latin America and the Caribbean, the Pacific, Europe and West Africa will discuss the intersections between gender-based violence and climate security as well as the ways through which the security sector can contribute to minimizing GBV related to climate change.
Please follow [DCAF] for more information and pre-registration.
22 January 2021 @ 10:00 am ET, Queen’s University, Canada
Tech for Good: WHO WATCHES THE WATCHMEN: Evidence of the Effect of Body-Worn Cameras on New York City Policing
This seminar will present a multi-year study of the precinct rollout of BWCs in the New York City Police Department (NYPD), the largest metropolitan police force in the United States. It estimates the effect of BWC deployment on precinct volumes of citizen stops, arrests, complaints against officers and use-of-force incidents.
For information and registration details, please follow [QU].
22 January 2021 @ 3:00 pm MST, Universiti Malaya Asia-Europe Institute, Malaysia
Vaccine Allocation Strategies in Malaysia: Ethics and Social Justice
This zoom webinar will try to gain a deeper understanding of how vaccine allocation strategies can and should meet the needs of society by considering the views of experts from different fields, including medicine and ethics.
You can access more information and the invitation link at [AEI].
22 January 2021 @ 12:00 pm EST, Hudson Institute, United States
The Republican Party after 2020: A Conversation with Michael Barone
Michael Barone is an expert on American politics and elections, a senior political analyst at the Washington Examiner and an Emeritus Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. The conversation is part of a series entitles, “The Future of the Middle Class” by Hudson Institute’s Center for the Future of Liberal Society.
For information and the livestream, please access [Hudson Institute].
22 January 2021 @ 10:00 am IST, Centre for Land Warfare Studies, India
Northern Boundary of India – Legacy and Prospects
In this webinar Mr. Claude Arpi, who has worked extensively on the Indian frontiers, Tibet, Sino-Indian relations, the Indo-Tibet boundary, defence issues and Indo-French relations, will discuss the northern boundary of India, its legacy and prospects. The event also features a Q&A session.
If you are interested in joining this event, please visit [CLAWS] for more information.
26 January 2021 @ 10:00 am CET, Bruegel, Belgium
Conversation with President Jin Liqun (AIIB) on key Infrastructure trends that could shape the recovery
President Jin Liqun of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and Bruegel Director Guntram Wolff will discuss how infrastructure financing is expected to shift in response to a post-COVID world. As the pandemic has exposed vulnerabilities and structural weaknesses in the global economy, but simultaneously presented an opportunity to imagine, plan, and build the infrastructure for tomorrow, an analysis of infrastructure financing trends seems timely.
You can access more information and the livestream under [Bruegel].
26 January 2021 @ 8:00 am ET, Asia Society Policy Institute, United States
Building Blocks: A Sectoral Approach to Asia-Pacific Trade
Against the backdrop of the establishment of the CPTPP and the RCEP – the two comprehensive trade deals in the Indo-Pacific – this webinar will take a closer look at the potential of narrower sectoral deals, exploring the following questions: What are the pros and cons of narrower trade agreements and how can the challenges they present be overcome? In which substantive areas are regional sectoral trade agreements the most relevant and timely? Which countries might join a regional agreement? What are the prospects of a limited trade negotiation serving as a building block to a larger comprehensive agreement down the road?
If you are interested in this webcast, please visit [Asia Society] for more information.
26 January, 2021 @ 1:00 pm ET, Berggruen Institute, USA
How Payment Became Social Media by Lana Swartz
This online book talk will discuss the social politics of financial technology and what’s at stake when we pay in times of new forms of money creating new forms of identity, new forms of community, and new forms of power.
For more details, see [Berggruen].
26-28 January 2021 @ 5:00 pm IST, The Institute for National Security Studies, Israel
The 14th Annual International Conference | New World Disorder – Redefining National Security
Over three days, the INSS 14th Annual International Conference compromises a wide array of online formats, including panel discussions, lectures, simulations, Q&As, and interviews, considering contemporary questions of national security such as the world between Trump and Biden, the war in the Middle East, and future perspectives for Israel.
For details and information on how to join the conference, please access [INSS].
27 January 2021 @ 4:00 pm CET, Bruegel, Belgium
In search of a fitting monetary policy: the ECB’s strategy review
As the European Central Bank is in the middle of reviewing its monetary policy strategy, this webinar seeks to discuss the following questions: What are the issues that it needs to address? Are there quick gains to be had? And what are the big issues that it must consider? Importantly, how is the role of macroeconomic management changing in the era of the digital transformation?
If you are interested in this event, please follow [Bruegel] for more information.
27 January 2021 @ 9:00 am EDT, Hudson Institute, United States
The Future of US-Nigeria Relations: A Conversation with Ambassador John Campbell
James Barnett and John Campbell – former US Ambassador to Nigeria and Senior Fellow for Africa Policy Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations – will discuss contemporary Nigerian politics, the challenges of post-colonial state-building, and the future of US-Africa relations. Campbell is also author of the new book, Nigeria and the Nation State: Rethinking Diplomacy with the Postcolonial World, urging US officials to stop projecting their own image of the nation-state onto Africa and embrace a more decentralized approach to diplomacy.
Please follow [Hudson Institute] for more information.
27 January 2021 @ 9:30 am CET, European Council on Foreign Relations, France
The EU and Belarus in 2021
Against the backdrop of ongoing and unprecedent protests in Belarus triggered by rigged election results, this webinar, which is co-organized with the embassy of Lithania, the embassy of Poland, and the embassy of Romania in France, will discuss the chances of a regime change in Belarus, the role Europe might play in this, as well as Russia’s strategy towards Belarus. Registration is required.
If you wish to join this virtual event, details and registration are available under [ECFR].
28 January 2021 @ 3:00 pm CET, German Institute for Global and Area Studies, Germany
Digital Development Dialogue (3D) 2021
This online seminar is a monthly forum for policy and research exchange featuring one researcher and one practitioner to touch upon key topics in development policy. This month’s seminar will consider: Aid Effectiveness for the Next Decade: How Will the Debate on Aid Effectiveness Evolve in the Upcoming Years?
Please visit [GIGA] for more information.
28 January 2021 @ 2:00 pm PHST, Philippine Institute for Development Studies, Philippines
Virtual Book Launch: Revitalizing Philippine Irrigation: A Systems and Governance Assessment for the 21st Century
The book that is launched in this event is a compilation of various studies about the country’s irrigation system by esteemed authors from various organizations. Particularly, the book evaluated the government’s irrigation development program, covering both national and communal systems, as well as various program considerations. Essentially, it offers a set of recommendations from this assessment to help the government pursue reforms toward cost-effective irrigation sector development.
For more information and access details, please visit [PIDS].
29 January 2021 @ 10:00 am CET, Egmont Institute, Belgium
The future of European Defence and the priorities of the Portuguese Presidency: African partnerships, Maritime Security and Resilience
This event will allow the Portuguese Minister of Defence to present the key priorities of the Portuguese presidency of the Council of the EU regarding the Common Security and Defence Policy. There will be initial statements as well as an open Q&A with the audience. Particular emphasis will be on transatlantic relations and the EU NATO cooperation, European security partnerships and missions in Africa, Maritime Security, and the role of the Armed Froces in response to complex emergencies.
If you wish to join this event, please access [Egmont] for more information. Please register by 27 January at noon.
2 February 2021 @ 10:00 -11:00 am ETC, Center for strategic & International Studies, USA
Maritime Security Dialogue - USN: Setting the Theater in the Arctic
The online event in the Maritime Security Dialogue series features Admiral Robert P. Burke, Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Europe / Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Africa and Commander, Allied Joint Forces Command Naples.
Please register here: [CSIS]
17 February 2021 @ 11:00 - 11:45 am ET, The Heritage Foundation, USA
Building an Army Ready for Great Power Competition
This online event will explore the question how the US Army is aggressively preparing for Great Power Competition by moving beyond incremental improvements and making transformational changes across the entire force.
More information about the event are available at [Heritage].
Recent book releases
Gloria J. Brarshall, She took Justice: The Black Woman, Law, and Power – 1619 to 1969, Routledge, 308 pages, 30 November, 2020, with short reviews in [Routlegde].
Rebecca Lissner, and Mira Rapp-Hooper, An Open World: How America Can Win the Contest for Twenty-First-Century Order, Yale University Press, 208 pages, September 15, 2020, briefly reviewed in [Kirkus].
Philip H. Gordon, Losing the Long Game: The False Promise of Regime Change in the Middle East, St. Martin's Press, 368 pages, October 6, 2020, with a review in [Lowy Institute].
Calls
The research blog CoronAsur, launched by the Religion and Globalisation Cluster at the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore in 2020, invites to submit contribution to a blog-based book publication at the interface of the COVID-19 pandemic and the life of religious communities and ritual practices that focus on ethnographic contexts in Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos. The submission deadline is before 15 February, 2021. For more information, see [H- Announce]
The Fourteenth International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts & Responses, to be held on 7 and 8 April 2022 in Vancouver, Canada, invites to submit paper proposal until 7 March 2022. More details available at [On-Climate].
Historical Yearbook, a scientific journal published by the “N. Iorga ” History Institute in Bucharest, of the Romanian Academy and the Faculty of History and Political Science, “Ovidius” University of Constanta, invites to submit contributions for its annual issue 2021. Closing date for submission is 15 September 2021. Please find more information at [Historical Yearbook].
Jobs & positions
The Max Planck Institute for the Study of Crime, Security and Law is offering a position of Postdoc or Senior Researcher in the Department of Criminal Law. Closing date for application is 31 January, 2021. For more information, see [Max Planck Institute].
The Faculty of Law and the Research Unit for Economic Law of KU Leuven is offering a full-time position of Researcher to be member of Academic Staff in the field of Tax Law. Applications can be submitted until 1 March, 2021. Further details available at [Ku-leuven].
The Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department of the Asian Development Bank is hiring a Senior Regional Maritime Specialist. Deadline for applications is 22 January 2021. More at [ADB].
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