Hopes for a last-minute deal to avoid a government shutdown are fading, raising the prospect of delays to key economic data as the Federal Reserve considers its next rate move. The jobs report for September is due Friday but the Bureau of Labor Statistics has confirmed it won't issue any economic reports during a shutdown. A prolonged shutdown could also delay the release of the consumer-price index due in mid-October. Meanwhile, several regional Fed presidents cautioned on Monday that policymakers shouldn’t move too quickly to ease policy, even as investors and Wall Street analysts bet on more cuts. Overseas, the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates on hold Tuesday, citing the need for continuing caution amid simmering inflation and a still-tight job market.

The federal government will begin shutting down at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday unless Democrats and Republicans can reach a deal on a short-term spending plan.

Shutdowns can squeeze the economy in different ways, from missed paychecks for hundreds of thousands of federal employees to the delayed release of crucial economic indicators. But duration matters. The longer the closure lasts, the greater the hit to economic growth and the work of businesses that rely on the federal government’s daily functioning.

• No Deal Reached in Talks to Avoid Shutdown
• No Jobs Report Friday if Government Shuts Down
• Democrats Stare Down the Political Risks of a Government Shutdown

Federal Reserve officials are pushing back on the idea that another rate cut is inevitable next month. Markets aren’t buying it, based on trading of federal-funds futures. The widening gap between policymakers and investors could indicate a possible market reckoning come October, Barron's reports. At the center of the tension are rising prices. While inflation has slowed from its pandemic highs, it remains above the Fed’s 2% target.

• Speaking at Washington University, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said, “I’m open minded to future potential reductions in interest rates,” but added that “I do believe we need to tread cautiously because the room between now and the point where policy could become overly accommodative is limited.”
   
• Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack expressed similar thoughts Monday morning. Speaking at the European Central Bank, she said, “I want to be open-minded about where things may head from here,” but added that “we need to maintain a restrictive stance of policy to ensure that we can bring inflation back to target.”
   
• Other officials have been similarly cautious. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said last week that “My view is that inflation remains too high while the labor market, though cooling, still remains largely in balance,” but added that “I view the current stance of policy as only slightly restrictive, which I think is the right place to be.”

Charlie Javice was sentenced to more than seven years in prison for defrauding JPMorgan Chase when she sold her startup to the megabank for $175 million and provided bogus evidence that her company had millions of customers that didn’t actually exist. Prosecutors had recommended she spend 12 years in jail for the fraud, which captured Wall Street’s attention for tricking the nation’s biggest bank, famed for its dealmaking acumen.

9 a.m.: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
9:45 a.m.: Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
7 p.m.: Economic Club of New York event with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer
7 p.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams visits Syracuse
7:15 p.m.: FRB Dallas President Lorie Logan speaks at Dallas Fed Survey Participants' Appreciation Reception

8:15 a.m.: ADP National Employment Report
9:45 a.m.: US Manufacturing PMI
10 a.m.: ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI
10 a.m.: Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
11 a.m.: Global Manufacturing PMI
7 p.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks at the University of North Carolina
7 p.m.: U.S. tariffs on pharmaceuticals, kitchen cabinets, and trucks takes effect

Corporate balance sheets appear stronger than government balance sheets from a sentiment perspective, says AXA Investment Managers in a note. Investors are comfortable with outright yield levels, especially with central banks still easing policy, and with underlying corporate fundamentals, the fund manager says. "Total returns, year to date, have rewarded investor confidence in the asset class." The main risk to a continued good performance for credit assets remains a slowdown in earnings growth, although investors are also watching the upturn in M&A activity, it says. — Emese Bartha

• Asia’s economies grew at a solid pace in the first half of the year, but that momentum will slow as tariffs take effect, the Asian Development Bank said as it cut growth forecasts for the region.
• Japan’s industrial output and retail sales both fell in August, further complicating the central bank’s mission to balance growth and inflation.
• China’s factory activity showed signs of improvement in September, according to both official and private surveys, while service activity eased following a summer travel boom.
• U.K. shop prices continued to rise in September, with food prices holding steady but a lengthy run of deflation in non-food categories slowing sharply. Price inflation at U.K. stores rose to 1.4% on year in September from 0.9% in August, above the three-month average rate of 1%, a report by NielsenIQ and the British Retail Consortium showed. (Dow Jones Newswires)
• France's inflation picked up pace at the end of the summer, despite a political stalemate holding back economic activity, as the European Central Bank looks likely to keep interest rates untouched.

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.