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February 17, 2021 - Brief Issue 153

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

U.S. Daily Average of Covid-19 Cases Drops Below 90,000 For First Time Since November (Health & Science)

U.S. Lacks Adequate Genetic Surveillance Needed to Track Covid-19 Variants (Health & Science)

Researchers Identify Seven New Coronavirus Strains in the United States, One in the U.K. (Health & Science)

Scientists Say B.1.1.7 Coronavirus Variant Likely Deadlier (Health & Science)

Physicians Say Severe Covid-19-Induced Inflammatory Reactions in Children on the Rise (Health & Science)

Wealthy U.S. Counties Have Higher Vaccination Rates Than Poorer Counties (Health & Science)

South Africa to Share AstraZeneca Vaccines (Around the World)

India’s Decrease in Coronavirus Cases Stumps Experts (Around the World)

North Korea Has Tried to Hack Vaccine Research, Says South Korean Lawmaker (Around the World)

Tel Aviv Using Free Food to Lure People for Inoculations (Around the World)

Dutch Cases Rise as New Variant Spreads (Around the World)

Biden Extends Foreclosure Moratorium and Mortgage Forbearance Through June (U.S. Government)

D.C. Restaurant and Retail Industry Faces Bleak Prospects Due to Remote Work (U.S. Economy)

Mardis Gras Goes Underground (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 27,756,625 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 488,081 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 333,661,620 tests and distributed 71,657,975 vaccine doses, with 55,220,364 doses administered (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 109,536,502 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 2,420,338 deaths. At least 61,622,562 people have recovered from the virus.

 U.S. Daily Average of Covid-19 Cases Drops Below 90,000 For First Time Since November

As of Sunday, Johns Hopkins reported a seven-day rolling daily average of 87,845 Covid-19 cases – the first time this number has dropped below 90,000 in the U.S. since November (The Hill). The drop may be in part due to rising immunity as more people receive the Covid-19 vaccine. However, Dr. Tom Frieden, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Preventive (CDC), says that the more important factor in the drop in cases is likely mitigation efforts like mask wearing, avoiding crowds and physical distancing (WaPo). Seasonal trends may also be influencing numbers, as similar viral infections tend to spike in early winter and taper off as the winter continues. Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the current CDC director, says that while case numbers are dropping, “they’re coming down from an extraordinarily high place” and mitigation efforts remain important.

U.S. Lacks Adequate Genetic Surveillance Needed to Track Covid-19 Variants

Nearly a year into the Covid-19 pandemic, the U.S. still lacks some vital virus-fighting tools. Contact tracing is still inadequate, some areas lack sufficient tests and, although production of N-95 masks has ramped up, some hospitals are still rationing the essential protective gear (AP). Now, genetic surveillance is falling far short of levels needed to track and contain the new, highly contagious variants currently spreading around the United States (Politico). Experts say the U.S. needs to sequence five to ten percent of all positive Covid-19 samples to track these variants; currently, the sequencing rate is about 0.5%.

U.S. labs have the capacity to sequence coronavirus at much higher rates, but thus far, there has been no coordinated national response to get samples to labs and fund sequencing efforts. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) aims to improve surveillance through their National SARS-CoV-2 Strain Surveillance program (Science). However, some scientists say that these efforts need to ramp up much more quickly to meet the pressing need for more sequencing. Coordination between national, state and local health systems, as well as adequate funding, will be needed to ensure strong genomic surveillance. Bonus Read: “Scientists Are Trying to Spot New Viruses Before They Cause Pandemics,” (NYT).

Researchers Identify Seven New Coronavirus Strains in the United States, One in the U.K.

According to a new study, published Sunday as a pre-print ahead of peer review, researchers have identified seven new coronavirus variants originating in the United States (NYT). The mutations all occurred in the same position in the Spike protein, a protein that helps the virus infect human cells. Because the mutation occurred multiple times in the same place, the researchers suspect that the mutation may give the virus some evolutionary advantage. However, there is no evidence yet that the new variants are more infectious or more deadly than the original strain, or that they will become a major concern.

Another new variant, designated B.1.525, was discovered in the U.K. with mutations similar to strain B.1.351, which was first discovered in South Africa and may be resistant to vaccines in addition to being more contagious (BBC). It is unclear whether the new strain will behave in the same way as the B.1.351 variant. Currently, the strain does not seem to be spreading faster than other strains and is present only at very low levels in the population.

Scientists Say B.1.1.7 Coronavirus Variant Likely Deadlier

According to British scientists, the B.1.1.7 coronavirus variant, which recently became prevalent in the U.K., is associated with a higher risk of death than the original strain (NYT). In a new update on their research findings, British government scientists say it is “likely” that the variant is linked to increased risk of hospitalization and death. It is unclear why the variant is more deadly. Some evidence suggests that the variant is associated with higher viral loads. It is also possible that the more-contagious virus is able to spread more quickly through vulnerable populations like those living in nursing homes. Scientists are urging government officials not to ease up on restrictions on socializing and traveling. The B.1.1.7 variant is present in at least 82 countries, and officials have said it could become the dominant strain in the U.S. by March.

Physicians Say Severe Covid-19-Induced Inflammatory Reactions in Children on the Rise

Some doctors across the U.S. have noticed a recent rise in cases of Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C), a severe inflammatory response to Covid-19 (NYT). Doctors also say that more children are becoming critically ill than in the first wave of Covid-19 in the spring and summer. Dr. Roberta DeBiasi, chief of infectious diseases at Children’s National Hospital in Washington, DC, said that about half of MIS-C patients required treatment in intensive care units during the first wave; now, 80-90% require intensive care.

Though children typically experience less severe Covid-19 symptoms than adults, MIS-C is a rare exception. Doctors aren’t sure exactly why some children experience the intense inflammatory response, and long-term effects remain unknown. Immediate effects can include fever, rash, red eyes and gastrointestinal problems. Some children with MIS-C have later gone on to develop cardiac problems. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, MIS-C remains rare. There have been only 2,060 cases reported as of mid-December, the last date for which complete data exists. However, reported cases have been on the rise since October. Bonus Reads: “What to Do When Your Child Tests Positive For Covid-19,” (WSJ); “Covid Vaccine for Kids Are Coming, but Not for Many Months,” (NYT).

 Wealthy U.S. Counties Have Higher Vaccination Rates Than Poorer Counties

According to a new STAT analysis, richer U.S. counties are outpacing poorer counties in terms of Covid-19 vaccination rates (STAT). In Connecticut, the state with the largest wealth gap, the richest counties have 65 percent more vaccinations than the poorest. California has a similar discrepancy, with people from wealthier counties receiving 56 percent more vaccines than those in poorer counties. In Washington, D.C., residents in wealthy neighborhoods were twice as likely to have received the vaccine as those in lower-income neighborhoods. The disparities are not as prevalent in all states: Texas, Tennessee, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Illinois, despite their high wealth gaps, did not have significant county-level income vaccination disparities. However, the data highlights concerns over equity that have been growing since the start of the pandemic. STAT observes that state policies can help mitigate the vaccine distribution inequalities. Some states are combatting income-based distribution inequality by setting aside portions of the vaccine for more vulnerable communities, ensuring vaccination clinics are available in low-income communities and setting up phone lines to assist those with no Internet.

World Health Organization Approves AstraZeneca/Oxford Vaccine for Emergency Use

On Monday, the World Health Organization (WHO) officially approved the AstraZeneca/Oxford Covid-19 vaccine for emergency use (AP, NBC). The approval paves the way for low- and middle-income countries to begin using the vaccine to immunize their populations. Many of these countries, crowded out of the vaccine market by wealthy nations, have not even been able to begin vaccinating their healthcare workers. Compared to rival vaccines like those from Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna, the AstraZeneca vaccine is cheaper and easier to transport and store, giving it a logistical advantage for lower-income countries. Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebryesus, the WHO director general, said that vaccine production still needs to ramp up in order to rapidly distribute the vaccines. More than 330 million doses of the vaccine are set to be distributed through COVAX, the WHO vaccine distribution program, starting at the end of February.

Israeli Researchers Find that Pfizer/BioNTech Vaccine Has Strong Real-World Efficacy

In clinical trials, the Covid-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech was more than 90% effective at stopping symptomatic Covid-19 infections. However, clinical trials tend to be populated by younger and healthier populations, leading some scientists to wonder how closely the trial results would be mirrored by real-world conditions. A new study from the Clalit Research Institute in Israel seems to confirm the vaccine’s high efficacy in real populations (WSJ, CNN). The study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, analyzed data from approximately 1.2 million people, half of whom had received both doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and half of whom had not taken the vaccine. The researchers found that symptomatic illness fell by 94%, and the rate of serious illness went down by 92%. The findings agree with results from Pfizer’s clinical trial, an important confirmation that the vaccine behaves the same way in real populations as it did in clinical trial participants.

Around the World

Africa

South Africa to Share AstraZeneca Vaccines

South Africa is planning to share its 1 million AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine doses with other African countries as the first shots from rival pharmaceutical company Johnson & Johnson arrive (NYT). The country paused the rollout of AstraZeneca doses earlier this month after a preliminary trial showed they offered minimal protection against mild to moderate illness from the B.1.351 strain of the virus, which has now become the dominant strain in the country. The South African Medical Association said if the first doses of the J&J vaccine arrived on Tuesday as expected then vaccinations could start today. Eighty thousand shots are supposed to arrive in the first shipment, all of which will be used to vaccinate healthcare workers. Anban Pillay, deputy director-general at the Department of Health, said South Africa planned to share the 1 million AstraZeneca doses it received at the start of the month from the Serum Institute of India via the African Union (AU). “The doses are going to be shared with countries on the continent ... via the AU,” Pillay told Reuters.

Asia 

India’s Decrease in Coronavirus Cases Stumps Experts

Coronavirus infections in India have been plummeting since September, with the country now reporting about 11,000 new cases a day compared to the nearly 100,000 cases per day experienced during the peak of the outbreak -- and health experts aren’t sure why. The Indian government is attributing the fall in cases to the widespread adoption of masks, which were made mandatory in public, while other health experts say that some parts of the country could have reached herd immunity. In November, cases crossed 9 million and official figures showed that about 90% of critical care hospital beds in New Delhi were full; on Thursday that number was just 16% (AP). According to the AP, “A nationwide screening for antibodies by Indian health agencies estimated that about 270 million, or one in five Indians, had been infected by the virus before vaccinations started — that’s far below the rate of 70% or higher that experts say might be the threshold for the coronavirus, though even that is not certain.” Whatever the reason for the decline in cases, health experts maintain that vigilance is still needed, as it’s unclear why the cases are falling and reinfection by different variant strains is also possible. 

Bonus Read: “Inflatable ICU: South Korea’s Answer to Potential Covid-19 Bed Shortages,” (WSJ).

North Korea Has Tried to Hack Vaccine Research, Says South Korea Lawmaker

North Korea has attempted to steal Covid-19 vaccine and treatment technology and information by hacking the computer systems of international pharmaceutical companies, including Pfizer, a South Korean lawmaker said on Tuesday (NYT). Ha Tae-keung, a lawmaker affiliated with the opposition People Power Party, told reporters about the North’s hacking efforts following a closed-door briefing with government intelligence officials. He did not provide any further details and the intelligence service declined to comment. North Korea has a decrepit public health system but claims to be free of Covid-19 after sealing its borders early last year. 

Record Box Office Sales in China as People Stuck at Home for the Lunar New Year

Covid-19 travel restrictions over the Lunar New Year drove many people in China to the movies, powering record sales and assuaging some doubts about the future of movie theaters after the pandemic. Usually millions of people travel to be with relatives over the Lunar New Year holiday. Instead, they’re spending money on movies they wouldn’t normally see in theaters. “Detective Chinatown 3,” the latest installment in a long-running buddy cop series, received only tepid reviews but managed to rake in an estimated $397 million over three days, according to Maoyan, which tracks ticket sales in the country (NYT). That set a world record for the largest opening weekend in a single market. By Tuesday, China’s total box office takings for the new year had reached $1.55 billion, according to local box office trackers. By contrast, total ticket sales last year in the United States totaled $2.2 billion.

Middle East

Tel Aviv Using Free Food to Lure People for Inoculations 

In cooperation with local restaurants, Tel Aviv was offering free food at two pop-up vaccination centers in order to entice the public to get inoculated (Reuters). Israel is currently leading the world in its vaccination drive, but health authorities are concerned that younger people who are less prone to dangerous complications from the virus are not getting vaccinated. On Tuesday, free pizza, hummus, and knafeh, a sweet dessert made with filo pastry, was on the menu and dozens of people showed up to take advantage of the offer. On Sunday, Israel is planning on easing restrictions on businesses and allowing hotels and gyms to reopen to those who are fully vaccinated or deemed immune after recovering from a Covid-19 infection. 

Europe

Dutch Cases Rise as New Variant Spreads 

Coronavirus cases in the Netherlands are rising again after weeks of decline as the B.1.1.7 strain of the virus first identified in England becomes more prevalent in the country. The national Institute for Health (RIVM) said on Tuesday there were 25,229 new cases in the last seven days but fewer people were tested due to disruptions from a snowstorm and icy weather (Reuters). The TIVM said that the B.1.1.7 strain now accounts for more than two-thirds of all cases and it expects that number to grow. On Jan. 23 the government imposed the toughest restrictions since the start of the pandemic, including the country’s first curfew since World War II. On Tuesday, a court ruled that that curfew lacked a legal basis, but Prime Minister Mark Rutte called on people to respect it anyway, saying it was necessary to fight the spread of coronavirus (BBC). Later, a higher court ruled that the curfew could stay in place pending an appeal on Friday. There has been rioting in several Dutch cities since the curfew was imposed with those opposed to it saying it violated the right to freedom of movement and limited the right to freedom of assembly.

Europe's Pandemic Debt Keeps Growing

Europe's debts are surging to levels not seen since World War II and outpacing the size of some national economies after European policymakers agreed to break with decades of strict limits on deficits in order to counter economic fallout brought on by the pandemic (NYT). But as the figures continue to grow -- in France alone the national debt will soon exceed 120% of the economy -- some wonder how long it can last. For now, government spending is kept affordable by low interest rates; the European Central Bank is buying large chunks of debt that effective push interest rates even lower. “If there’s no risk of a return of inflation, then the sky’s the limit for debt,” said Nicolas Véron, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. But some economists worry that inflation and interest rates could rise, which would force central banks to increase interest rates and put poorer countries at risk of a debt trap as they struggle to pay down what they owe.

U.S. Government & Politics

Biden Extends Foreclosure Moratorium and Mortgage Forbearance Through June

On Tuesday, the Biden administration announced that it would extend the federal ban on foreclosures and the allowance for delayed mortgage payments through June 30 (Politico, WSJ). Politico writes, “The actions would block home foreclosures and offer delayed mortgage payments until July, as well as offer six months of additional mortgage forbearance for those who enroll on or before June 30.” The CARES Act signed by President Trump provided protection for twelve months which would run out in March. The Wall Street Journal writes, “Some 2.7 million homeowners have active forbearance plans—representing 5% of all mortgage-holders—and more than half of the plans are set to end for good in March, April, May or June, according to mortgage-data firm Black Knight Inc. The White House noted people of color are more likely to have deferred or missed mortgage payments.” Jim Parrott, a former housing advisor during the Obama administration, told the Journal, “What the administration is trying to do here is make sure that you don’t have a wave of FHA borrowers who are going to have to begin to pay their mortgage again before the economy has begun to recover.” The Journal also notes that the changes do not apply to loans guaranteed by the government controlled Freddie and Fannie companies which have already set up a separate system of protections.

Siena Poll: Cuomo Remains Popular Despite Undercounting Nursing Home Deaths

On Tuesday, the Siena College Research Institute released a poll finding that New York’s Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo remains popular despite the state’s Attorney General releasing a report finding that he had undercounted nursing home deaths in the state (Politico). The poll was conducted from February 7 to February 12 while the report was released on January 28. Politico writes, “The poll found 56 percent of respondents said they view Cuomo favorably, compared to 39 percent who view him unfavorably. That’s basically the same as the 57-39 he received in January and 56-39 he received in November.” On Monday, Cuomo called the undercounting a “mistake” and defended his record, stating, “The void we created by not providing information was filled by skepticism and cynicism and conspiracy theories which furthered confusion... you don't provide the information, something will provide the information” (CBS). Bonus Read: “New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo's Covid-19 controversy, explained,” (CNN).

Bonus Read: “Wisconsin Covid-19 Response Is Shaped by Political Divide,” (WSJ).

U.S. Economy

D.C. Restaurant and Retail Industry Faces Bleak Prospects Due to Remote Work

Restaurants and retail businesses in the nation's capital region face bleak prospects if remote work continues to be the norm, the Washington Post reported on Tuesday (WaPo). A report published on Tuesday by the Greater Washington Partnership, a business group, concluded, “The effects of a moderate to substantial shift to remote work in the Capital Region will not be felt evenly across geography, industry or occupation.” The report continued, “public services, smaller businesses, and restaurant and retail workers who historically relied on regular commuters will be required to adapt to a post-pandemic future of work.” According to the report, 49% of the region’s jobs are “remote-capable” for long periods of time. This would make the city the second best performing in that indicator only trailing San Francisco, but still leaves many jobs in the lurch. The report also found that those who are able to work from home over the long term are disproportionately white and highly educated.

U.S. Society

Mardis Gras Goes Underground

Even as New Orleans shut down bars, forbid the sale of to-go cups of alcohol, and closed the French Quarter and Bourbon Street to non-residents due to the pandemic, some New Orleanians continued their celebrations via rogue events (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “It was an unusually quiet weekend here leading up to Mardi Gras Day, or Fat Tuesday, which normally draws thousands to the bacchanalian port for the end of the Carnival season that starts in early January. Still, celebrants managed to look past the lack of tourists during the coronavirus pandemic to stage their own rogue events.” Last year, health officials attributed 50,000 Covid cases to Mardis Gras celebrations. Yet, the Journal writes, “This disaster-resilient city still managed to find a way to celebrate, though, by taking the party to private backyards and front porches. From downtown neighborhoods such as the Bywater and Faubourg Marigny to Uptown’s Irish Channel and the Riverbend, house parties set up kegs and wet bars. Many homes were decorated as parade floats. And, accordingly, their residents tossed plastic-encased beads and other trinkets to passersby from porches and balconies. Several of the parties included live bands and a few hours of dancing in yards and on sidewalks.”

Bonus Reads: “We’ve been cooped up with our families for almost a year. This is the result,” (WaPo); “A coronavirus vaccine entrepreneur held an indoor conference. Now dozens of attendees have the virus” (WaPo).

Analysis & Arguments

The Boston Globe profiles new CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky (Boston Globe).

Valerie Strauss examines the state of the debate over reopening schools (WaPo).

Marc Fisher examines the historical ties between pandemics and extremism (WaPo).

Viet Thanh Nguyen writes on why he actually likes teaching over Zoom (NYT).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Jessica Scott and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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