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July 21, 2021 - Brief Issue 231

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

CDC: Delta Variant Accounts for 83% of New U.S. Cases; Surge Among Unvaccinated (Health & Science)

U.S. Pediatric Group Calls for In-Person Schooling with Mask Wearing in Schools, Going Further Than CDC (Health & Science)

Scientists Try to Speed Up Trials (Health & Science)

Lambda Variant Spreading in South America (Health & Science)

India’s Covid Deaths Likely Surpass 3 Million (Around the World)

Canada to Reopen Border with U.S. (Around the World)

Belarus Cracks Down on Medical Workers (Around the World)

Twitter Temporarily Suspends Marjorie Taylor Greene Over Covid Misinformation (U.S. Government & Politics)

Pelosi Aide, White House Official Test Positive for Covid (U.S. Government & Politics)

Delta Variant Threatens U.S. Economic Recovery, Raising White House Concern (U.S. Economy)

Insurance Companies Have to Pay Out as People Return to the Highways (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 34,177,406 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 609,536 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 338,491,374 vaccine doses, with 56.2% of all Americans having received their first vaccine dose and 48.7% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 68.3% have received at least one dose, and 59.6% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 191,549,981 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 4,121,042 deaths.

CDC: Delta Variant Accounts for 83% of New U.S. Cases; Surge Among Unvaccinated

On Tuesday, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky stated that the more contagious Delta variant now accounts for 83% of new U.S. cases (CNN). Speaking before a Senate hearing, she noted, “This is a dramatic increase, up from 50% for the week of July 3.” The comments come as concern over the variant and the slowing of vaccination progress grows.

Just over half of the U.S. population remains unvaccinated and the easing of restrictions over the summer months as people travel and gather with friends and family is creating a surge in cases among the unprotected population. According to the Washington Post, if case numbers are adjusted to take into account the unvaccinated population, the virus is raging in areas with low vaccination rates. Among susceptible, unvaccinated people, the rate of coronavirus infections is 91% higher than the unadjusted case rates reported on official websites and state tracking systems. The Post writes, “The adjusted rates in several states show the pandemic is spreading as fast among the unvaccinated as it did during the winter surge. Florida, Arkansas, Missouri, Nevada and Louisiana all have coronavirus case spikes among the unvaccinated, with adjusted rates double or triple the adjusted national rate. The adjusted rates of Utah, Kansas, Alabama and Alaska are slightly lower than those states.”

“With the arrival of delta, we will have two very different epidemics — one a mild cold in vaccinated individuals, and then we continue to have deadly infections in unvaccinated individuals,” said William Powderly, an infectious-disease specialist and director of the Institute for Public Health at Washington University in St. Louis. “The people who need to come to hospital, who end up in the intensive care unit, and the people who die are almost exclusively unvaccinated individuals,” he said, noting that his hospital has three times the covid-19 patients it had in late June.

U.S. Pediatric Group Calls for In-Person Schooling with Mask Wearing in Schools, Going Further Than CDC

On Monday, the American Academy of Pediatrics, the country’s leading pediatrician association, called for the resumption of in-person schooling with students wearing masks (WaPo). The association described masking as part of a “layered approach to make school safe for all students, teachers and staff.” Sonja O’Leary, chair of the association’s Council on School Health, stated, “We need to prioritize getting children back into schools alongside their friends and their teachers — and we all play a role in making sure it happens safely,” adding, “Combining layers of protection that include vaccinations, masking and clean hands hygiene will make in-person learning safe and possible for everyone.” As we covered in prior briefs, the CDC relaxed its guidance this month, allowing vaccinated students to go maskless in school. The American Academy of Pediatrics guidelines go further.

Scientists Try to Speed Up Trials

Scientists are developing a benchmark for Covid-19 vaccine efficacy that would allow drugmakers to conduct smaller, speedier human trials in order to get more vaccines to market faster (Reuters). To do this, researchers must determine what level of Covid-19 antibodies a vaccine must produce in order to protect against illness. These benchmarks, known as correlates of protection, are also used to evaluate flu vaccines without requiring large and drawn-out clinical trials. "You could use it to predict efficacy from a vaccine, which will be more important as we are less able to conduct placebo-controlled trials," said Stanley Plotkin, inventor of the Rubella vaccine and an expert on correlates of protection. "The information is flowing in," he said. "By the end of this year, I think there will be enough data to convince everyone." Once the benchmark is established, drugmakers could conduct trials in just a few thousand people, about one-tenth the size that is needed for authorization for the currently used shots. Researchers at Oxford University proposed a potential correlate in late June based on antibodies found in people who had received the AstraZeneca vaccine but their work hasn’t been peer reviewed yet. U.S. researchers wrote a paper based on a study of Moderna’s vaccine that should be published in a medical journal later this summer. 

Lambda Variant Spreading in South America

The coronavirus variant known as Lambda has been spreading under the radar for the past nine months but is now the source of almost all new infections in some areas. In Peru, where the variant was first discovered in August 2020, it accounts for the vast majority -- over 90% -- of infections (NatGeo). The variant has now spread to 29 countries, many in Latin America. In Chile, Lambda accounts for 31% of sequenced cases in the last 60 days, even though 58.6% of Chile’s population is fully vaccinated. In Chile’s case, the poor efficacy of the vaccine used, the Chinese CoronaVac, could be to blame. “Why Chile is getting such high infection rates is perplexing, and it’s likely due to several factors. Because of their high vaccination coverage, the restrictions were relaxed a little too soon, and that could have led to [a] rise in cases,” says Pablo Tsukayama, a microbiologist at Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia in Lima, Peru. It was Tsukayama who first spotted the Lambda variant after routinely sequencing the samples deposited between January and March 2021. “But it is also possible that the main variants in circulation, Gamma and Lambda, have some immune escape properties that lead to reduced protection from vaccines.”

Bonus Read: “Americans’ Medical Debts Are Bigger Than Was Known, Totaling $140 Billion,” (NYT).

Around the World

India’s Covid Deaths Likely Surpass 3 Million

On Tuesday, the Center for Global Development, a Washington-based think tank, published a report that places India’s Covid excess death toll at over 3 million people, which is ten times the official count of people who died from Covid in the country (NYT). The authors, who include a former chief economic adviser to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, wrote, “True deaths are likely to be in the several millions, not hundreds of thousands, making this arguably India’s worst human tragedy.” The New York Times writes, “The study released on Tuesday estimated that between 3.4 and 4.7 million more people than would normally be expected died between January 2020 and June 2021, and includes an estimate suggesting that deaths from Covid-19 alone may have reached four million.” The death toll in India has been a subject of dispute with many experts assuming the country’s official death count is a major undercount.

Canada to Reopen Border with U.S.

Beginning on Aug. 9, U.S. citizens and permanent residents will be allowed to enter Canada as long as they have been fully vaccinated for at least 14 days before travel, U.S. federal officials said on Monday. Canada hopes to allow visitors from other countries as soon as September 7, though that date could change depending on conditions (NYT). The U.S. and Canada have renewed the border closure on a month-by-month basis since the border closed to nonessential travel on March 21,2020. Commercial traffic was never halted. Canada has finally made progress in vaccinating its population following months of delays and now has a higher vaccination rate than the U.S., with 50% of its population fully vaccinated and 75% received at least one dose. Representative Pete Stauber, Republican of Minnesota, said on Twitter that the news was “long overdue. Our border communities have suffered for over a year.” The U.S. could still continue with travel restrictions, according to the White House. Jen Psaki, White House Press Secretary, said on Monday that “Any decisions about reopening travel will be guided by our public health and medical experts. We take this incredibly seriously, but we look and are guided by our own medical experts,” Ms. Psaki said. “I wouldn’t look at it through a reciprocal intention.”

Belarus Cracks Down on Medical Workers

Even as the pandemic rages on, Belarus is detaining health care workers who have spoken out against the authoritarian government. More than 250 Belarusian doctors have been detained or fined, some of them even endured beatings by the security service (Politico). Some of the medical workers have publicly criticized the government’s handling of the pandemic; others are citizens who took part in last year’s anti-government protests. Bruce Millar, Amnesty International’s Deputy Director of Campaigns for Eastern Europe and Central Asia Regional Office, says recent events speak to a pattern of suppression against medical staff. "Doctors and nurses are among those who have paid an incredible human price for their professionalism and for showing human compassion," he said in a statement in June. The crackdown on medical staff is worsening the crisis that the healthcare system is facing due to the coronavirus. There are no public institutions or trusted doctors that residents can turn to for information on the vaccines, and as a result, vaccine uptake is far lower than elsewhere in Europe. The country has relied heavily on Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine but has manufactured it at Belarusian facilities. 

Bonus Read: “Tokyo’s Drinkers Drown Frustrations Over Virus Limits, Games,” (AP).

U.S. Government & Politics

Twitter Temporarily Suspends Marjorie Taylor Greene Over Covid Misinformation

On Monday, a Twitter spokesperson confirmed that the social media company had temporarily suspended Republican Georgia Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene for violating its policy on Covid misinformation (WaPo, CNN). Twitter put the account on a twelve hour read-only suspension, which the Washington Post writes, “is the shortest of Twitter’s read-only penalties, which its website says can range from 12 hours to seven days, ‘depending on the nature of the violation.’” According to Twitter, Greene had violated the company’s policies multiple times, but the key tweet in question asserted falsely that Covid is “not dangerous for non-obese people and those under 65.” Twitter also placed warnings on other tweets. The Post writes, “She also made claims about vaccine-related deaths and side effects, calling the coronavirus vaccines ‘controversial.’ In another tweet, Greene falsely claimed “defeating obesity” would protect people from covid-19 complications and death. Twitter added a warning to both tweets, labeling them as ‘misleading.’” The action comes as the administration has taken a more aggressive line towards social media companies and what it alleges is their role in allowing Covid misinformation to spread.

Pelosi Aide, White House Official Test Positive for Covid

In the wake of meeting with Democrats from Texas’ state legislature last week, an aide to Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi tested positive for Covid, and a White House official has also tested positive (Politico). Over the weekend, five Texas legislators tested positive, and a sixth tested positive on Monday. The aide to Pelosi had helped show visiting legislators around D.C. Politico reports, “The speaker's spokesperson was fully vaccinated against Covid-19 and had no contact with Pelosi since being exposed to the virus, according to the speaker’s office.” On Tuesday, White House Spokesperson Jen Psaki confirmed that the White House official who tested positive was also fully vaccinated, saying that the official “remains off-campus as they wait for a confirmatory PCR test.” Psaki added that there have been other breakthrough cases at the White House but that they weren’t publicly reported as they involved people who were not commissioned officers. Politico writes, “Commissioned officers hold a high-level position where they work for the president, rather than working for another White House official.” The recent official who tested positive is also not a commissioned officer.

Bonus Read: “Scarred by Covid-19, These Survivors and Victims’ Families Aim to Become a Political Force,” (NYT).

U.S. Economy

Delta Variant Threatens U.S. Economic Recovery, Raising White House Concern

The spread of the Delta variant is threatening the U.S. economy and raising concerns in the White House regarding the administration’s ability to fulfill its promises of economic recovery (WaPo). The Washington Post reports, “A resurgence in coronavirus cases is threatening the Biden administration’s promises of a swift economic recovery, with Wall Street getting battered on Monday and some leading forecasters beginning to rethink their extremely rosy projections. The administration is closely monitoring the economic risks associated with the delta variant, and senior U.S. officials have in recent days suggested that local restrictions may have to be reimposed in response to the pandemic.” On Monday, President Biden stated, “This virus doesn’t have to hold you back any longer. It doesn’t have to hold our economy back any longer. But the only way we put it behind us is if more Americans get vaccinated.” Despite rapid economic growth in recent months, concerns are rising that the spreading Delta variant could reduce consumer spending and further disrupt supply chains, an issue that the administration has already pointed to as fueling rising prices and fear of prolonged inflation. On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a 726 point decline, the worst one day fall this year. That along with steep falls in the Nasdaq and S&P suggest growing concern among investors. On Tuesday, stocks rebounded after Monday’s fall (WSJ).

Bonus Read: “Temporary or Not, Inflation is Rattling Restaurants and Broader Economy,” (WaPo).

U.S. Society

Insurance Companies Have to Pay Out as People Return to the Highways

During the pandemic, car insurance companies reaped a windfall as people traveled less, but the Wall Street Journal reports that car owners are now returning to the highways and that this boom in travel will spell greater payouts that will be visible in second quarter earnings reports (WSJ). The Journal writes, “Car insurers’ second-quarter results will face tough comparisons with the year before, when carriers benefited from an unprecedented drop in miles and a steep decline in accident volume. Many Americans hunkered down in their homes in the second quarter 2020 as the nation weathered the early stages of the Covid-19 crisis. However, the waning pandemic should lift year-over-year performance for the broader property-casualty insurance industry, analysts said.” Travelers Co. provided an example of these trends of increased income and higher payouts on Tuesday when per the Journal, “It swung to $934 million in net income, up from a $40 million net loss in the year-earlier second quarter. The strong improvement came even as its personal car-insurance operations paid out more in claims compared with a pandemic-related low level of losses in the prior-year quarter.” Meanwhile Progressive saw a 47% second quarter increase in accident volume compared to the prior year. 

Bonus Read: “Montana Boomtown Jumps to No. 1 on WSJ/Realtor.com Housing Market Index,” (WSJ).

Analysis & Arguments

Michelle Goldberg writes on the dangers arising from loneliness in the U.S., which pre-existed but which also has been exacerbated by the pandemic (NYT).

Kara Swisher and Dick Pound, a member of the International Olympic Committee, discuss what happens if there’s a Covid outbreak at the Olympics (NYT).

Daniel Engber writes that the only path forward for vaccination, as vaccination progress slows, may be to go through another deadly surge in cases (Atlantic).

Rachel Calcott reports on El Paso’s provision of extra vaccine doses to Mexican truckers crossing the border (Texas Monthly).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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