Grasp the pattern, read the trend

No. 33, August/2021, 3

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers, 

Please enjoy your ‘Asia in Review’ (AiR) for a remarkable week that is shaped by the historic fall of Kabul to the Taliban, an event which will affect the geostrategic equation in Asia and is sending signals to many of its Muslim constituencies. 

With special greetings to our readers celebrating this week the national days of Congo, India, Indonesia, Gabon, Afghanistan, and Hungary, the AiR team wishes you all a good read and a very nice day!

With best regards,

Henning Glaser

Editor in Chief

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

Main Sections

• Law and Politics in East Asia

• Law and Politics in South Asia

• Law and Politics in Southeast Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

• Announcements

Law and Politics in East Asia 

China unveils five-year policy map, signals greater economic regulation in coming

(dx/lm) China has released a five-year blueprint calling for greater regulation of strategic sectors including technology, healthcare, market supervision, and environmental protection, suggesting Beijing's unprecedented crackdown on private enterprise could last for some time. [CNN]

The policy map – jointly released on August 11 by the State Council and the Communist Party’s Central Committee – highlighted an “urgent need” for legislation in China to govern the education sector and resolve antitrust issues. It also called for legal frameworks for the digital economy, artificial intelligence, big data and cloud computing. [The State Council of the People’s Republic of China]

The wide-ranging document also included promises to strengthen rules that would clamp down on monopolistic behavior. But it was vague on the specific instructions or measures that authorities want regulators to take. [The Straits Times]

The directive comes during a time of massive upheaval for Chinese industries ranging from tech and financial services to private tutoring. Global investors have been seeking to make sense of a series of regulatory measures unveiled in recent weeks by various Chinese regulators to place limits on numerous sectors and businesses in the name of protecting national security and social stability. [Bloomberg] [Financial Times]

As a case in point, China’s education authorities terminated 286 cooperative programs between Chinese and foreign universities last week as part of a routine assessment of collaborative arrangements with foreign institutions. The move comes less than a month after the State Council issued new sweeping regulations for the private education industry, forcing companies to register as non-profit organizations, banning approvals for new companies, and barring them from accepting foreign investment. [South China Morning Post]

Over the past year Chinese authorities have launched anti-monopoly probes into some of the nation’s largest tech companies such as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. [see AiR No. 52, December/2020, 5], while also mandating cybersecurity reviews for foreign listings.

China: Two activists who posted censored COVID-19 articles to be released

(dx/lm) Two Chinese amateur computer coders swept up in a crackdown against reporting on the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic are set to be released next week after spending more than a year in detention.

In 2018, the two young men launched an archive where they kept hundreds of articles censored on Chinese media outlets and social media platforms. Entries documented China’s early pandemic response after the initial outbreak in the central city of Wuhan. The site had also archived censored articles on China’s #MeToo movement and its crackdown on labor activists. [The Washington Post]

But after only a year of operation, in April of last year, the two activists were detained and charged with “picking quarrels and provoking troubles” – a catch-all offence often used by police to muzzle dissent.

Court proceedings began earlier in May, and on August 13, the court handed down a sentence of one year and three months, to be applied retroactively, after the two activists had pleaded guilty. [South China Morning Post]

China: Hong Kong’s biggest protest group disbands amid police pressure

(dx/lm) In the latest blow to the opposition movement in Hong Kong, the umbrella group behind many of the city’s largest protests has announced it was disbanding, as it faces increasing pressure from police. [Reuters] [The Straits Times]

The Civil Human Rights Front (CHRF) announced its closure on August 15, saying no members were willing to perform secretariat duties after its convener, Figo Chan Ho-wun, was jailed for 18 months in May alongside other high profile Hong Kong activists over their involvement in a protest in October 2019 [see AiR No. 20, May/2021, 3]. The group also said its $205,577 of assets would be donated to other appropriate organizations.

Established in 2002, the CHRF has been a significant presence or organizer of protests in Hong Kong. For successive years it ran the annual July 1 protests, held to observe the 1997 handover of the former British colony to China. But it was the anti-extradition bill protests in June 2019, that propelled the group to another level, breaking the record for Hong Kong's largest ever demonstration with nearly two million participants. The mass marches organized by the CHRF began as peaceful demonstrations – but clashes with police soon tipped the protests into a six-month-long political crisis that often turned violent. [AiR (2/6/2019)]

In an interview published the Ta Kung Pao newspaper on August 13, Hong Kong’s police chief suggested that past rallies organized by the CHRF may have violated the national security law, despite the group obtaining permits and repeated reassurances from authorities that the 13-month-old law is not retroactive. [The Guardian]

Police have been investigating CHRF’s finances since April, and on August 15 the South China Morning Post cited a government-connected source saying police would acknowledged the group’s dissolution but would not absolve the CHRF of any potential criminal liability. [South China Morning Post] [The Straits Times]

CHRF is just the latest in a string of organizations and groups that have chosen to disband or leave Hong Kong in recent months, citing diminishing civil liberties and a shrinking public sphere. Earlier last week, the city’s largest educators’ group, the Professional Teachers’ Union, similarly announced its disbandment amid political pressure, after it was criticized by Chinese state media and Hong Kong authorities. [see entry in this edition]

China: Hong Kong’s biggest teachers’ union announces its disbandment after authorities cut ties

Hong Kong’s biggest teachers’ union on August 10 announced its disbandment, citing “enormous pressure” from the authorities as a factor in a decision that came just days after education authorities formally severed ties with the group and warned that law enforcement could “take appropriate action” against it if necessary. [Nikkei Asia] [South China Morning Post 1]

In an unprecedented step, the city’s Education Bureau (EDB) earlier this month said it would no longer recognize the Professional Teachers’ Union (PTU), which represents more than 90 percent of Hong Kong’s teachers. The EDB’s announcement on July 31 came just hours after two of China’s state-media outlets had called for the union to be “eradicated”, saying it was a “poisonous tumor”. [AiR No. 31, August/2021, 1]

On August 7, then Senior Counsel Ronny Tong Ka-wah emerged as the first pro-establishment heavyweight to insist on the innocence of the PTU. In an interview with the South China Morning Post, the top adviser said that none of the group’s past comments or actions – including the union’s longtime alliance with groups that organized peaceful pro-democracy protests and annual Tiananmen vigils – could be construed as falling foul of the national security law. [South China Morning Post 2]

Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung Yun-hung, however, was more cautious in taking a stance, instead urging teachers to have a “thorough rethink” on their relationship with the PTU. Both remarks came after a pledge by Commissioner of Police Raymond Siu Chak-yee two weeks ago to “definitely investigate” the union for any potential national security violations.

The PTU is the latest group to be targeted by both the Beijing and local governments in a continuing overhaul of Hong Kong’s education sector, citing the need to promote national security in schools and universities.

International Human Rights organizations called the PTU’s disbandment an example for “the level of fear permeating the city’s education sector and wider civil society amid a relentless crackdown on dissent.” [Amnesty International]

China: Record number of uncontested seats for Hong Kong Election Committee polls

(dx/lm) More than 75 percent of the 1,500 seats in Hong Kong’s powerful Election Committee (EC) are set to be filled uncontested after a one-week nomination period for the polls ended last week, reflecting the impact of Beijing’s overhaul of the electoral system.

Elections for the EC mark the first polls to be held under the revamped electoral system imposed by Beijing in March to ensure “expected” results. Previously only tasked with selecting the city’s Chief Executive (CE), the EC has been expanded to 1,500 members under Beijing’s sweeping overhaul of the electoral system, and will for the first time also fill 40 seats in the city’s parliament, the 90-member Legislative Council (LegCo) [see AiR No.13, March/2021, 5].

A one-week nomination period had opened on August 6, and authorities received a total of 1,056 nominations over the course of the seven next days, competing for about 1,000 seats.

Specifically, only thirteen of the 40 subsectors representing the different professions and trades in Hong Kong – each with a different number of seats on the EC – will face competition. A poll for these subsectors, which carry a total of 527 seats, will be held on September 19.

The state of play stands in stark contrast to the polls five years ago when 25 of 38 subsectors faced competition and a total of 246,000 voters – already a mere fraction of the city’s 7.5 million residents — registered to cast ballots. Now, the number has been cut to 7,900, as most individual votes have been by corporate voting.

Consequently, because more than a third of the seats on the EC will either be hand-picked by pro-establishment chambers or groups, or appointed as ex-officio members, at least 1,193 seats in the 1,500-strong EC will go uncontested [AiR No. 32, August/2021, 2]

Analysts also noted the changing of the guard in business-related sectors, with several prominent tycoons – including Li Ka-shing – not throwing their hat into the ring this time. Instead, their children were joining the race, mostly in the real estate and construction subsector — along with a number of mainland China-affiliated businessmen, signaling a new and rising presence on the EC. [South China Morning Post]

China: Hong Kong’s population shrinks by 89,000 in just 12 months

Hong Kong’s population has fallen for the third consecutive six-month period after more than a decade of growth, as people left the city in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and following China’s political crackdown. With an outflow of 89,200 residents, the population of the former British colony now stands at 7.39 million, down 1.2 percent from the same time last year, government data released on August 12 shows. [The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region]

The decline marks the biggest drop in at least six decades for the city. Hong Kong, which swelled in the post-war era amid waves of mass migration from the mainland, has suffered only two bouts of population decline since 1961. Both came amid political unrest and disease, including when the overall population shrank by 0.2 percent amid the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and protests against national security reform in the 2002-03 period. [Bloomberg]

The city’s government explained the territory’s falling population by pointing to pandemic travel restrictions and a 37 per cent decline in the number of people making use of a scheme that allows mainland Chinese to settle in the city. Experts say low fertility rates exacerbated by the pandemic were also contributing to the statistics. [Financial Times]

Last year, the British government opened a pathway to citizenship for as many as 5.4 million Hong Kong residents who hold or are eligible for British National (Overseas) travel documents. In the first quarter of this year, the United Kingdom received more than 34,000 applications and granted 7,200, according to Home Office data. [The Times, $]

In related developments, the latest annual report from the Mandatory Provident Fund Schemes Authority showed the total amount of early fund withdrawals on the grounds of permanent departure from Hong Kong last year reached a record US$850 million, a 27 per cent jump from the previous financial year. [South China Morning Post]

Japan: Cabinet’s approval rate falls to new low

(dx) The approval rating for Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s Cabinet fell 0.3 percentage point from the previous month to 29 percent in August, a Jiji Press opinion survey showed on August 13, as a majority of voters decry the government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. [The Japan Times]

In July, the Cabinet’s approval rate had hit a then all-time low at 30 percent in a nationwide poll, down 4 percentage points from the June’s poll and the lowest figure since the administration was launched in September 2020 [see AiR No. 30, July/2021, 4].

This is the first time a Cabinet’s approval rating has stayed below 30 percent for two consecutive months since the launch of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s second administration in December 2012.   A public support rating below 30 percent is widely regarded as a danger zone for a Cabinet.

What is more, the poor ratings come just days before the 11-member election management committee of Suga’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will decide the date of its next presidential election during a meeting on August 26. [AiR No. 32, August/2021, 2]

Prior to the committee’s inaugural meeting, Prime Minister Suga had announced his intention to seek re-election as President of the party, more than two months before his term expires on September 30 [see AiR No. 31, August/2021, 1].

Some LDP executives favor to hold the party poll ahead of elections for Japan’s House of Representatives, which are scheduled to take place on or before October 22. They prefer to see Suga replaced as party chief, as they believe that the party might not contest the election well under his leadership.

Indeed, the latest survey also showed that support for the Summer Olympics did not translate into a higher improval rating for the prime minister and his Cabinet. It also found that 55.2 percent – down 3.9 points – of voters did not support the government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, criticizing the slow vaccine rollout and blaming the Summer Games for the public’s complacency in the fight against COVID-19. [Asahi Shimbun]

Mongolia: Mandatory Mandarin language in classrooms

(nd) In an effort to what critics and rights groups refer to as “cultural genocide”, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) extends compulsory Mandarin teaching to pre-schoolers in the Northern region of inner Mongolia as of the fall semester 2021, according to a recent directive from the ministry of education. To ensure sufficient staff, the government launched a nationwide "batch training" scheme for kindergarten teachers. According to the directive, the move aims at "enabling pre-school children in ethnic minority and rural areas and rural areas to gradually acquire the ability to communicate at a basic level in Mandarin, and to lay the foundations for the compulsory education phase.”

Critics say it is yet another step in CCP general secretary Xi Jinping's plan to extend the party’s political agenda from cradle to grave, his two pillars being to China from poverty and to unify the nation. For Mongolia, this process was initiated last year with the suppression of opposition voices, when state security policy cracked down on street protesters and boycotters in fall 2020, after announcing to cease teaching Mongolian language at schools. An estimated 8,000 to 10,000 people were arrested.

Similar curricula changes were introduced to Korean-language teaching schools in northeast China, which inhabits about 2.3 million Koreans, to schools in China’s North-western Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR), as well as for Tibetans. 

Rights advocates have emphasized the meaning of language for a national identity as well as history and culture to be transported, not automatically giving rise to separatism. Also, according to the Chinese Constitution as well as the Ethnic Autonomous Region Law, ethnic groups have the right and freedom to preserve and develop their own languages.

The "education for national unity" policy has been rooted to a speech of Xi Jinping in September 2019, asserting: "The Chinese nation is one big family, and we will build the Chinese dream together."

The New York-based Southern Mongolian Human Rights Information Center (SMHRIC) commented that the CCP is implementing "wholesale cultural genocide" in Inner Mongolia and called for an international boycott of the 2022 Olympics in China. [Radio Free Asia] [UCA News]

Still, Mongolia does not take sides amid the recent tensions between the US and China but maintains good relations with both countries and others, as seen recently with a string of diplomatic visits to respectively from the US, China, Japan, and South Korea [See also AiR No. 30, July/2021, 4] While their respective counterpart had strategic visions in mind, the Mongolian side was sure to emphasize the economic and trade part of the high-level talks. [The Diplomat]

North Korea: Propaganda department to activate journalists

(nd) Reportedly, the Central Committee’s Propaganda and Agitation Department has issued an order asking local and “party loyalty” journalists to “take a lead in politically awakening and ideologically educating the people.” According to a source, the order points to the important role officials in the press sector play, criticizing journalists — referring to them as “cultural warriors”— for failing to play their “proper role” as propagandists, in light of their mission to inspire all people and “leading them from the front.”

The order continued to state only journalists “with heads full of loyalty and hearts full of the will to truly obey the party can most accurately penetrate reality”, calling leading media officials for stronger ideological reviews and internal training. As a future vision, journalists shall be recruited “under the concrete guidance and close watch of provincial party branches.” [Daily NK]

North Korea: Absentee workers sent to labour camps

(nd) North Korea has started to crackdown on citizens skipping their government-appointed jobs, sending them to labour camps. In theory, all North Korean men report to government-assigned jobs every day, but their wages are not enough to live on or support a family. It has therefore become common for workers to leave their houses behind and move about in the country to look for a job themselves. Earlier, each company had to report employee attendance to the local police office every day, now they have to report it once in the morning and once in the afternoon. Local police are also heavily monitoring the unemployed, those not living in their official residences, social security beneficiaries who skip neighbourhood watch unit meetings, and students who are not regularly attending classes.

Following international sanctions and the global pandemic, which caused border closures and a halt to trade with China, North Korea’s economy is severely hit. Food prices soared amid stock shortages; factories are empty for a lack of raw materials. In a recent report, UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization estimated that North Korea would have 860,000 tons of food too little this year, about two months of normal demand. In April, the authorities warned citizens to prepare for difficulties as bad as the Arduous March, when between the 1994-1998, North Korean famine killed millions, or as much as 10 percent of the population.

In May, authorities already cracked down on workers in a machinery factory in the Northwest, who skipped their work for the more lucrative fisheries industry. [Radio Free Asia]

North Korea: UNICEF to receive sanctions waiver

(nd) The UN Children's Fund (UNICEF) received an extension of a sanctions exemption until August 5, 2022 to deliver essential items for its health programs, including providing safe water to children and assistance to mothers with complicated deliveries, as well as vaccine-related equipment. Despite its claim to be coronavirus-free, North Korea has imposed movement restrictions and closed borders. The International sanction regime on North Korea does not ban humanitarian activities, but such are subject to sanctions waivers from the UN. [Yonhap]

South Korea: Navy NCO arrested for sexual harassment after victim’s death  

(aml) On Saturday, a Navy Chief petty officer was arrested for sexual harassment after on Tuesday, the alleged victim was found dead at her base. The 32-year-old Chief petty officer had reported a sexual harassment by a senior colleague at a restaurant in late May. According to police investigations, the apparent cause of her death is suicide. [Korea Times 1] [Korea Herald] Defence minister Suh Wook apologized to the victim’s family and announced to form a special investigation team. [Reuters 1]

The arrest warrant was issued after a pre-trial detention hearing at Navy’s general military court in Pyeongtaek. The ministry of national defence and the Navy informed to investigate if there had been secondary damage to the victim, since she had reported the incident immediately but filed a formal request two months later. Text messages between the victim and her family indicate that she was being bullied and isolated from her colleagues after reporting the harassment. [Korea Times 2]

This incident is only one of many in South Koreas recent history, after South Korea’s problem with sexual abuse had become openly discussed due to the global #MeToo movement. Only in May, a female Air Force officer had committed suicide after being sexually abused by a colleague. The woman’s family had accused the Ai Force of bullying her, ignoring her complaints after the incident as well as pressuring her into a settlement. President Moon Jae-in thereupon ordered an investigation of the situation. [Reuters 2]

South Korea: Liberation Day, police block conservative rallies 

(aml) On Sunday, South Korea celebrated its Liberation Day and the 76th anniversary of independence from Japan after being colonized between 1910 and 1945. President Moon Jae-in reaffirmed the importance of establishing and remaining good relations with Japan, despite their current issues and also emphasized that both North and South Korea would benefit from “institutionalizing” peace between the two countries. [Korea Herald 1] [See full speech here]

On Saturday, Liberations Day eve, the police had blocked anti-government street rallies due to concerns they might violate social distancing rules and lead to further spreading of the Covid-19 virus. The three-day protest was led by Jun Kwang-hoon, a politically controversial pastor and was blocked by the police with safety fences, checkpoints and vehicles. On Sunday, instead one-person demonstrations were held, that are allowed under the current restrictions [Korea Times] [Korea Herald 2] [Korea Herald 3 for a comment on dangers of demonstrations].

South Korea: Memorizing victims of Japanese wartime sex slave program

(aml) Saturday marked the 30th anniversary of the first testimony by a Korean victim of Japanese wartime sexual slavery. The Memorial Day is held since 2017, on the day Kim Hak-soon publicly testified about her ordeals as a victim of Japan’s organised military sex slavery program during World War II. During the ceremony, president Moon Jae-in vowed his efforts to research and assistance in uncovering details to inform and teach future generations. He also expressed his gratitude and respect to the victims for “standing up for and proving the human dignity through many hardships and adversity they suffered before, during and after the war”. According to historians, up to 200,000 had been victims of sex slavery in Japanese brothels when both Koreas were a Japanese colony. [Korea Herald] [Korea Times 1] [Korea Times 2]

South Korea: Opposition parties’ merger talks unsuccessful 

(aml) On Monday, Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the minor opposition People’s Party (PP)announced that the negotiations about a possible merge between the PP and the main opposition People Power Party (PPP) failed. The reasons for failing to reach a deal are, among others, the issue whether to change PPP’s name and disagreements on how to pick a presidential candidate. [Yonhap 1][Yonhap 2]

Taiwan accused of illegal fishing in report

(nd) In the "2021 Biennial Report to Congress on Improving International Fisheries Management," released by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Taiwan was listed as being involved in illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing for the first time. It was not notified and asked for an explanation by the US government. According to the report, 13 Taiwan-flagged fishing vessels were involved in violating "conservation measures" in various regional fisheries management organizations in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans, with the Taiwanese government failing to take measures against such activity. Taiwan claimed not to have received any details on the vessels, with NOAA saying the information stems from NGO-conducted interviews with crew members of Taiwan-flagged fishing vessels at the conclusion of their contracts.

NOAA biennially reports to US Congress, the first of which was published in 2009. In 2020, the US Department of Labor listed Taiwan-caught fish in its List of Goods Produced by Child Labor or Forced Labor, accusing authorities to ignore the issue. [Taiwan News]

Law and Politics in South Asia 

Bangladesh: Rights watchdog calls for UN probe, sanctions over enforced disappearances

(lm) United Nations human rights experts should lead an independent international investigation into enforced disappearances by security forces in Bangladesh, Human Rights Watch said in a new report released on August 16. [Al Jazeera]

In its report, the rights watchdog identified 86 political activists, businessmen and student members of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party who went missing over the past decade.

The organization also said disappearances had become a “hallmark” of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s rule since 2009, and called for “targeted sanctions” of members of the Rapid Action Battalion, an elite anti-crime and anti-terrorism unit accused of carrying out many of the disappearances. [Human Rights Watch]

Bangladesh: Ex-President Rahman was involved in assassination of Sheikh Mujibur, law minister claims

(lm) Bangladesh’s Law Minister Anisul Haque on August 12 implicated that former President Ziaur Rahman was involved in the 1975 assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the founding President of Bangladesh and father of incumbent Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Evidence on Rahman’s alleged involvement would be made public through a commission constituted to identify the conspirators behind the assassination, according to the minister. [Dhaka Tribune]

Ziaur Rahman, who was killed in a military coup in 1981, is the founder of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). He was also the husband of Khaleda Zia, an arch-rival of Prime Minister Hasina’s who served two periods as prime minister and is currently on conditional release from jail in two corruption cases [see AiR No. 10, March/2021, 2].

Earlier in February, the National Freedom Fighter Council decided to revoke a gallantry title conferred to Rahman for his contributions to the War of Liberation that transformed East Pakistan into Bangladesh in 1971. The reasons behind the decision had been cited as involvement in the plot for assassinating Sheikh Mujibur, as well as aiding and abetting the group of army officials involved in the killing by appointing them to important government posts during his presidency (1977-81), among others. [AiR No. 7, February/2021, 3]

Crucially, the charges pertaining to the murder of Sheikh Mujibur to date have not been tried in any court.

Condemning Law Minister Haque’s statement, the BNP secretary general on August 14 said the government was “trying to mislead people by distorting history and falsehood only because of political retaliation”.

On August 15 then – the day Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and most of his family were killed as part of a coup d'état in 1975 – the law minister upped the ante, saying that the ruling Awami League would not stop until the death sentences of five absconding killers of Sheikh Mujibur are executed. [The Daily Star]

Bangladesh: Authorities vaccinate Rohingya refugees amid virus surge

(lm) Bangladesh began vaccinating thousands of Muslim Rohingya living in Cox Bazar’s refugee camps on August 10, as part of a national inoculation drive to curb the spread of COVID-19.

The government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina bolstered its effort to get vaccines from other sources – particularly China – after India stopped exporting AstraZeneca vaccines to Bangladesh in April, and launched a new round of vaccinations nationwide earlier this month.

Bangladesh has been battling an alarming surge in infections and deaths in recent weeks, as the highly transmissible delta variant is driving an infection surge across the country. Around 20,000 infections and 200 deaths have been recorded so far in the southern region bordering Myanmar where the sprawling refugee camps are located. [Associated Press] [France24]

The drive is being led by the Bangladesh authorities with technical support from the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), the World Health Organization (WHO) and other humanitarian partners. Over 65,000 of the nearly 900,000 Rohingya refugees will be vaccinated in the first cohort, with community leaders, frontline health care volunteers, and Rohingya aged 55 and above given priority. [UN News]

The vaccinations follow weeks of devastating monsoon rains that have pummeled the district of Cox’s Bazar, killing at least 11 Rohingya refugees and 15 of their Bangladeshi hosts. The flooding has particularly affected large parts of the Kutupalong refugee camp, displacing almost 25,000 refugees while ravaging thousands of facilities, including primary health clinics, distribution points and latrines. [AiR No. 31, August/2021, 1]

Bangladesh: 14th session of Parliament to begin on September 1

(lm) Bangladesh’s President Abdul Hamid has summoned the Parliament for September 1 for the inaugural sitting of its 14th session. The previous session was prorogued on July 3 after 12 sittings. [Dhaka Tribune]

India to launch $1.35 trillion national infrastructure plan to help generate job, Prime Minister Modi says

(lm) India will soon launch a major infrastructure plan to boost economic growth and create jobs, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on August 15, laying out national priorities on the country’s 75th Independence Day. [Associated Press] [The Straits Times]

Addressing the nation from New Delhi’s historic Red Fort, the prime minister renewed a pledge to spend more than $1 trillion on infrastructure to help integrate the country’s varied modes of transport. The Indian leader did not detail a time frame for when the plan – called "Gati Shakti" (momentum) would be rolled out, saying only that it would launch in the "near future." [CNN]

Boosting infrastructure in Asia's third-largest economy is at the heart of Prime Minister Modi's plan to pull back the country from a sharp economic decline worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic. India’s economy contracted by a record 7.3 percent in the last fiscal year that ended in March – its worst recession since independence as coronavirus lockdowns hit economic activity and rendered millions jobless.

In his speech, the prime minister also listed his government’s achievements since 2014 and hailed India’s coronavirus vaccination campaign. India has given more than 500 million doses of vaccines, but its vaccination drive has been marred by its slow pace. About 11 percent of eligible adult Indians have been fully vaccinated so far.

Modi also said his government would invest more in electric mobility, solar energy and “green hydrogen” as part of its goal to wind down India’s energy imports in the next 25 years. [Bloomberg]

India: Twitter suspends, later reinstates accounts of Rahul Gandhi, other opposition leaders

(lm) US microblogging giant Twitter unblocked the accounts of India's main opposition National Congress (INC) party, its leader Rahul Gandhi and other party officials on August 14, days after suspending the accounts over tweets that identified the family of a child who was allegedly raped and murdered. [CNN] [The Straits Times]

Twitter's decision to initially lock the accounts followed a call from India's National Commission for Protection of Child Rights to take action against Gandhi's Twitter handle for posting an image that showed him with the parents of a nine-year-old girl who was allegedly raped and murdered in the capital, Delhi, earlier this month.

The girl was a member of the country’s 200 million-strong Dalit community, the lowest rung of India’s caste system, formerly called the untouchables. The incident triggered protests and outrage in the country. [AiR No. 32, August/2021, 2]

The rights body said that by tweeting a photo of the girl's parents, the INC leader had revealed the identity of a sexual assault victim – which is forbidden under Indian law.

INC officials fired back against Twitter’s decision, accusing the US company of stifling freedom of speech, and claiming that its reasons were "politically coloured, mischievously motivated, and downright malafide". They also accused Twitter of being "completely subservient to the Modi government" – an allegation the company has denied. [BBC]

The accounts were reinstated after Twitter reviewed Gandhi's submission of formal consent from people depicted in the image. But while the tweet is available globally, it is remains being withheld in India.

India: Second senior-most Supreme Court judge retires

(lm) Justice Rohington Fali Nariman, the second most senior judge at India’s Supreme Court retired on August 12, after a nearly seven-year tenure that saw the justice disposing more than 13,500 cases and authoring almost 400 judgements. [The Times of India]

Justice Nariman got elevated a month after the Narendra Modi government came to power in 2014. His name was recommended by the collegium then headed by Chief Justice R.M. Lodha. It was after nine years that a senior lawyer from the Supreme Court bar had got elevated as a judge of the apex court.

In his time at the Supreme Court, Just Nariman delivered several landmark verdicts, including the declaration of privacy as a fundamental right and striking down Section 66A of the 2000 Information Technology Act that empowered police to arrest citizens for their social media posts. He almost single-handedly steered India’s 2016 Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code through its teething years. Of the 164 Supreme Court judgments on the Code, 81 were authored by him.

A list of various judgments delivered by Justice Nariman on arbitration law can be found at [Bar and Bench]

Nepal: Supreme Court refuses to stay Election Commission decision on PSP-N feud

(lm) Factional leader of the People’s Socialist Party, Nepal, (PSP-N), Mahantha Thakur, suffered another political blow on August 16 with the Supreme Court refusing to stay the Election Commission (EC)'s decision to recognize the rivalling Yadav-Bhattarai as the authentic party. [The Himalayan Times]

The PSP-N was formed in April of last year through the merger of the two key Madhesh-based parties in Nepal, the Samajbadi Party, Nepal (SPN) and the Rastriya Janata Party Nepal (RJPN) [see AiR No. 28, July/2020, 2]. The party soon divided into two factions: one lead by former RJPN leaders Mahanta Thakur and Rajendra Mahato; another headed by former SPN key figures Baburam Bhattarai and Upendra Yadav.

The EC on July 26 announced it would recognize the Yadav-Bhattarai faction, saying that 34 members of the PSP-N’s 51-member Executive Committee had supported the faction during the verification process. [AiR No. 30, July/2021, 4]

Thereafter, Thakur challenged the EC's move, arguing that the decision to recognize the Yadav-Bhattarai faction as the authentic party was erroneous, as its application lacked the support of 40 percent Executive Committee members.

Pakistan: Bus attack that killed Chinese workers was a suicide bombing, authorities say

(lm) An attack on a bus in northern Pakistan last month that killed 13, including nine Chinese nationals, was a suicide bombing by Islamist militants, Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi said on August 12, placing the blame for the bombing on the Indian and Afghan intelligence agencies.

The suicide attack on July 14 targeted a two-bus convoy transporting Chinese and Pakistani workers to the World Bank-funded Dasu Hydropower project in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province. Shortly after the attack, China sent criminal investigation specialist to Pakistan and urged Islamabad to ensure the safety of Chinese personnel and projects in the country. [AiR No. 29, July/2021, 3]

The Pakistani top diplomat said that the country’s leading Taliban group Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan – an umbrella movement of militant groups linked to al-Qaeda and Islamic State – carried out the attack. But he also said that his country had data evidence proving that India’s Research and Analysis Wing and Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security were also involved. [Reuters]

The Indian Ministry of External Affairs rejected Pakistan’s allegation and called it an attempt at “peddling lies and propaganda”, saying that Islamabad had made similar accusations repeatedly in the past. [South China Morning Post]

Law and Politics in Southeast Asia 

Cambodia: Last living Khmer Rouge leader to start appeal

(nd) Following his conviction for genocide in 2018, the last surviving senior Khmer Rouge leader will challenge his sentence of life imprisonment in appeal proceedings this week. Khieu Samphan, 90, the former head of state, was convicted alongside "Brother Number 2" Nuon Chea, who died in 2019.  "Brother Number 1" Pol Pot, who led the Khmer Rouge, left about 2 million Cambodians dead from overwork, starvation and mass executions from 1975 to 1979. His goal was to transform Buddhist-majority Cambodia into an agrarian utopia. He died in 1998 before he was tried for his actions.

The competent court was created with UN backing in 2006 to specifically try senior Khmer Rouge leaders, applying a mixture of Cambodian and international law. It has convicted three people. Prime Minister Hun Sen, a former Khmer Rouge cadre, urged the court to cease its work, for it was creating instability for Cambodia. [Channel News Asia]

Indonesia: Criticism for honoring militia leader 

(nd) Human rights groups in Indonesia have criticized President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo for honoring former pro-Jakarta militia leader Eurico Guterres with the country’s second highest medal last week, calling it “a serious betrayal of humanity and morality and ignores justice for the victims.”

Following East Timor’s UN-backed vote for independence in 1999, East Timorean Guterres opted for Indonesian citizenship and led militia group Aitarak, fighting for its continued integration within Indonesia. According to a UN report, between 1,000 and 2,000 civilians died and another 500,000 were uprooted in the violence surrounding the referendum, to which Guterres was linked.

A human rights court set up by Indonesia in 2002 convicted Guterres of crimes against humanity and sentenced him to 10 years in prison, upheld by the Supreme Court in 2006, which acquitted him in 2008 after a subsequent case review request, citing new evidence. A tribunal set up by the National Commission on Human Rights (Komnas HAM) was called a sham by rights groups for senior leaders were not prosecuted, questioning the professionalism and impartiality of the prosecution, also drawing international criticism.

Guterres is a member of Gerindra, a political party founded by Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, the former son-in-law of President Suharto, a retired military officer accused of war atrocities during the occupation of East Timor by rights groups.

When the Portuguese left their late colony in 1975, Indonesia invaded East Timor, which became independent in 2002 as Timor-Leste.

Jokowi, whose chief security minister and member of the presidential advisory team Wiranto was then armed forces chief in East Timor, and Prabowo, commanding general, has been specifically criticized for breaking his earlier pledge to resolve old human rights cases. [Benar News]

Indonesia: Police to arrest 48 suspected Islamic militants 

(nd) During nationwide raids, the Indonesian police arrested 45 suspected Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) and three Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD) militants. JI is affiliated with al-Qaeda, JAD is a domestic network of cells linked with the so-called Islamic State.

JAD was blamed for major terrorist attacks in the country, including suicide bombings that targeted churches in Surabaya in May 2018. JI supported militant networks in Syria by sending recruits and collecting charities during large religious gatherings Indonesia, sending them to Syria. JI was also blamed to be responsible for the 2002 Bali bombings, killing 202 people. While JI was banned in 2008, it was given space and autonomy to engage in social welfare, charitable, educational and religious activities, if the members refrained from violence. This, according to analysts, will pose a long-term threat to Indonesia’s stability, when it manages to establish significant military support. [Benar News]

Laos-China Railway scheduled to open in December

(ct) During the 10th Laos-China Railway Project Construction Committee Meeting in Vientiane Capital, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Planning and Investment, Mr Sonexay Siphandone announced the Laos-China Railway is scheduled to officially open in early December this year. Sonexay said that as of July 25, the construction of the railway was 93.82 per cent complete and will be completed in November. Authorities are resolving several final issues, including compensating individuals who have been affected by the railway project and dealing with areas where the railway crosses highways. Additionally, the Laos-China railway project will bring in locomotives, electric multiple unit (EMU) trains and other equipment to conduct the first trial run of the railway in October. [Laotian Times 1] [Vientiane Times]

The Lao-China railway, which is part of six international economic corridors under China’s China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an integral part of the China Economic Corridor. China remains the largest foreign investor in Laos. [Laotian Times 2] According to a 2018 report of the Washington-based Center for Global Development, Laos was the one Southeast Asian country risking significant debt distress as a result of loans from China, in large part due to large infrastructure project, like hydropower dams and railways. [The Diplomat] [Radio Free Asia]

Laos: State enterprises to be reformed amid immense budget deficit

(ct) Due to incredibly large amount of debts, Laos launched a new program ordering high-ranking state officials to return their luxury vehicles, modernizing the country’s tax collection system, and producing goods for export to build reserve in foreign currencies. Also, state-owned enterprises have to increase their management transparency. Laos has a history of government corruption, and was ranked 130 out of 134 by Transparency International report of 2020. Due to inefficient management, state enterprises further burden the already tight budget, which has been hit by the global pandemic.

In early February, Prime Minister Thongloun Sisoulith has told authorities in charge to reform state investment and ensure spending is effective, as part of measures to strengthen the macro-economy and prevent a crisis in the coming years. [Laotian Times] [The Star] [Radio Free Asia]

Malaysia: PM to resign, remains caretaker until new appointment

(nd) Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin and his cabinet resigned as of Monday, agreeing with the country’s King that he shall fill the position as caretaker until a new prime minister is appointed. For the first time, Muhyiddin admitted he had lost majority support.

Over the weekend, rumours about his resignation grew louder when he met with the King, and his plea for support among the opposition and key allies was denied. [Channel News Asia] [Reuters 1]

After ignoring calls for his resignation and to hold an immediate confidence vote, reportedly even urged to do so by the King, the vote was initially scheduled for September 7. By that time, almost all opposition parties had called on him to resign or call an emergency parliamentary session to hold a confidence vote immediately. 

His 17-month administration, the shortest in independent Malaysia’s history, has been shaky ever since. Last week, at least 8 MPs withdrew their support for the ruling Perikatan Nasional (PN) government, which numerically could not have disposed of a majority anymore. [See also AiR No. 32, August/2021, 2] According to a parliamentary source, the palace had sent a letter to the lower house speaker last week to ask how many MPs still supported Muhyiddin.

While Muhyiddin and the Kind agreed that a general election during a raging pandemic was not ideal, it remains questionable who could be his successor. Since the opposition against Muhyiddin is not unified, however, there is yet no alternative candidate with a majority support. The Pakatan Harapan alliance earlier urged lawmakers opposed to Muhiyddin to back Anwar Ibrahim as the next prime minister. Also, a petition was handed in with the king in an effort to pardon the corruption-convicted ex-Prime Minister Najib Razak. Other possible successors were Umno members Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah and deputy prime minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob. [Reuters 2] [Reuters 3]

While the country’s biggest party United Malays National Organisation (Umno) is likely to play a crucial part in determining a successor, recent weeks showed that the party is not unified in that matter either. One camp supported Muhyiddin, while another faction, allied with Najib, was calling for his resignation. Earlier and in his final parliamentary address, Muhyiddin reiterated that the tension arose due to his refusal to meet demands including the dropping of corruption charges against Umno members. [South China Morning Post 1]

As of Tuesday, politicians from different parties had audiences with the King in an effort to find a successor. [Malay Mail] [Channel News Asia]

Amid the political crisis, more Malaysians are angered by the government’s mismanagement of the current health crisis, resulting both in protests and subtler engagement by younger, grassroots political groups, to be watched for an upcoming election. [Benar News] [Channel News Asia] [South China Morning Post 2]

With the political turmoil in the midst of a pandemic-related economic dip, investors will once again be reluctant to invest in Malaysia. [Jakarta Post]

Malaysia: Muda registration denied again

(nd) In their second try, the Malaysia United Democratic Alliance's (Muda) application to be registered as a political party has been rejected. According to its vice-president (VP), no reasons were given in the email by the Registrar of Societies (RoS). The registration was filed last year September, the appeal was handed in six months ago, urging the VP to criticize the delay in the decision. Muda is a multi-racial and youth-centered political party, formed by Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman in September 2020. [New Straits Times]

Myanmar: UN envoy warns of civil war if no successful talks

(mt/lm) The UN Special Envoy on Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, warned on August 10 of “a full-scale civil war” if the military, supporters of the ousted democracy, ethnic groups and other key parties do not hold an all-inclusive dialogue that also includes discussions of humanitarian assistance, the plight of Myanmar’s Rohingya Muslim minority and “root causes” of the current crisis. [Associated Press] [The Straits Times] [UN News]

Speaking from Switzerland, Schraner Burgener said that over the past two months, she has been holding talks with the military, ethnic armed organizations, and other stakeholders, including the shadow National Unity Government (NUG) formed by exiled lawmakers ousted in the military takeover.

At that time, the 10-member Southeast Asian regional bloc, ASEAN, was yet to appoint a special envoy to Myanmar, and appeared particularly hamstrung by its bedrock policy of non-interference in the domestic affairs of member nations and by its consensus decision making.

Hence, Schraner Burgener decided not to wait but to move ahead with her proposal for an all-inclusive dialogue organized around four “clusters” covering pandemic response, humanitarian assistance, and issues related to the Rohingya community. The final and biggest cluster would address “root causes: of the crisis, such as discussions around the federal system, the constitution, law reforms and the electoral system.

She also proposed establishing an international observer group on Myanmar. Membership would comprise China, India, Japan, Thailand, the United States, the United Kingdom, Norway, and Switzerland, in addition to the UN, the European Union and the ASEAN.

However, in her wide-ranging discussions, she said she realized no stakeholder “will give up and [is] ready to make any compromises.”

Myanmar’s military leader, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, for his part appears determined to solidify his grip on power, Schraner Burgener said, pointing to the recent declaration naming him prime minister, the annulment of November’s election and fears that the National League for Democracy of deposed civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi could soon be disbanded [see AiR No. 31, August/2021, 1].

During her discussions, she said Myanmar’s ethnic armed organizations “were in the majority very positive of this idea” and members of the NGU were “interested in the ideal but clearly would have preconditions to start such a dialogue.”

She also said she had a long conversation with Vice-Senior General and current Deputy Prime Minister Soe Win on July 16 on many issues including the proposal for a dialogue, but “I didn’t receive an answer,” and since then, “[t]here is no positive feedback from the army on this dialogue […].”[The Irrawaddy]

Nonetheless, the UN special envoy added, a dialogue will hopefully start through the ASEAN and its recently appointed special envoy to Myanmar, Brunei’s Second Foreign Minister Erywan Yusof, who plans to visit the country after consulting with all stakeholders [see AiR No. 32, August/2021, 2].

Myanmar: Rohingya minority left out of COVID-19 vaccination roll-out

(mt) Authorities in Myanmar currently have no intention to include members of the Rohingya Muslim minority in the country’s national vaccination effort, as they begin vaccinating priority groups against COVID-19 in Myanmar’s western Rakhine State.

A local administrator from Sittwe, the capital of Rakhine, told Reuters that the vaccine rollout currently only allows for 10,000 doses being administered to members of so-called priority groups, including elderly, healthcare workers, government officials, and Buddhist monks. [Reuters]

About 120,000 Rohingya are currently encamped in settlements, located on the outskirts of Sittwe. Most residents have lived in the camps since 2012 – the year Rakhine became the scene of bloody interethnic violence – despite the fact that they were forcibly relocated by the government on a purportedly temporary basis. Up to half a million more Rohingya remain in villages elsewhere in the state.

Although many of the Rohingyas have long and deep roots in Myanmar, they are officially stateless: Created in 1982 by Myanmar’s then-ruling military junta, the citizenship laws favor the majority Bamar community and others judged to be among the country’s “national races” and excludes others from full citizenship.

Consequently, the Rohingya do not hold any state-issued ID, and thus, cannot get vaccinated as the national vaccination program requires beneficiaries to be ID-holder citizens to receive jabs. [The Irrawaddy]

Myanmar: United States lose contact with American journalist detained by junta

(mt) An American journalist detained in a Myanmar prison has not been in touch with United States officials for several weeks, the State Department said on August 12. [The Detroit News]

Danny Fenster, a managing director for local news publication Frontier Myanmar has been held in detention since May, when he tried to board a flight out of the country [see AiR No. 22, June/2021, 1]. The journalist, who faces charges under Section 505(a) of Myanmar’s Penal Code which purports to address “incitement” and carries up to three years’ imprisonment and/or a fine, appeared virtually for a second time in a special court hearing in mid-July [see AiR No. 29, July/2021, 3].

Inmates inside Insein Prison in Myanmar’s commercial capital of Yangon – where Fenster is being detained –staged a protest last month over what activists said was a major COVID-19 outbreak in the colonial-era facility. [AiR No. 30, July/2021, 4]

Myanmar: Chin State armed forces offers monetary rewards to junta troops to defect

(mt) An anti-junta defense force in Myanmar’s western Chin State announced on August 10 that it will be rewarding soldiers defecting from the military with nearly $3,000 in return for “standing with the people” and surrendering their weapons to the anti-dictatorship resistance.

In a statement, the Chinland Defence Force (CDF) said at least 20 soldiers in Chin State had surrendered to the anti-coup armed resistance in recent weeks, adding that the group wanted to make it easier for soldiers to leave the security forces. [Myanmar Now]

Reuters had reported in March that around 280 policemen entered India’s northeastern state of Mizoram to escape taking orders from the military junta. [AiR No. 10, March/2021, 2]

Armed resistance groups in several Chin State townships have fought back against the military, with particularly intense battles taking place in the north-western town of Mindat, where Myanmar’s military used artillery bombardments and helicopter attacks while battling members of a local anti-junta defense force [see AiR No. 20, May/2021, 3]

Myanmar: Former strongman Than Shwe hospitalized

(mt) The former longtime military ruler of Myanmar, Than Shwe, has been hospitalized with COVID-19, an official said on August 12. [South China Morning Post] [The Washington Post]

Than Shwe and his wife, Kyaing Kyaing, are being treated under tight security at a VIP section of the Thaik Chaung military hospital in the capital of Naypyitaw, according to the official, who did not provide information on the severity of their illness.

During his rule from 1992 until 2011, Than Shwe led a feared junta that brutally crushed dissent and routinely jailed political opponents. When he stepped down, he anointed the current junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing, the new senior general, and handed power to a nominally civilian, pro-military government.

Philippines: Court to dismiss libel case against journalist Maria Ressa

(nd) Last week, one of several lawsuits against Rappler journalist Maria Ressa was dismissed. 

The cyber-libel case was about her report on a college professor allegedly taking money in exchange for good grades. Ressa has been targeted frequently because of her critical reports on President Rodrigo Duterte, published on news outlet Rappler, for which she does the editing. Ressa was named Time Magazine Person of the Year in 2018 for fighting media intimidation, which has raised international concern about the harassment of journalists in the Philippines. In this case and the previous libel case she faced, the complainants withdrew and the cases were dismissed. A conviction for cyber-libel over a 2012 article linking a businessman to illegal activities is pending appeal, facing up to six years in jail.

Duterte has called Rappler a "fake news outlet" sponsored by American spies. Ressa has a dual Filipino-US citizenship. [Channel News Asia]

Philippines: 16 communist guerrillas killed 

(nd) In an air, sea and ground operation against communist guerrillas, government forces killed 16 in the country’s East. The death toll could rise as fighting continues. There were no casualties on government side reported.

The New People’s Army (NPA) is the military wing of the outlawed Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP). NPA has been waging one of Asia’s longest-running insurgencies, which began in 1969. In 2017, Rodrigo Duterte ended peace talks, accusing the rebels of carrying out deadly attacks despite the negotiations. Both CPP and NPA were declared as terrorist organizations last year. CPP’s political wing, the National Democratic Front, was added in June and its bank accounts frozen. [Benar News]

Philippines: Pacquiao possibly to be expelled from PDP-Laban

(nd) The ruling Partido Demokratiko Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan (PDP-Laban) has threatened to expel Sen. Emmanuel "Manny" Pacquiao. Allegedly, Pacquiao plans convert his local party the People's Champ Movement (PCM) into a national party. Evidence for this move comes from minutes to a PCM meeting in December 2020, circulated in social media, showing that the central committee of the PCM led by Pacquiao met to amend the party's constitution and by-laws for it to become a national political party.

PCM was founded by Pacquiao in 2009 as a regional political party, closely affiliated with the PDP-Laban.

Pacquiao's expulsion would be the latest of a string of tensions between him and the faction of Energy Minister Alfonso Cusi. In July, Cusi was elected as PDP-Laban's president after Pacquiao’s ousting. Additionally, the call from party members to urge Rodrigo Duterte to run again was opposed by Pacquiao. [Manila Times]

Thailand: Civil Court dismisses request for injunction against rubber bullet usage 

(pr) The Civil Court dismissed a petition filed by two journalists against the police for compensation and an injunction against the use of rubber bullets in controlling protests pending case deliberation. [Bangkok Post]

The two media personnel were hit with rubber bullets while covering the July 18 protest with visible press identification. On July 18, the police fired water cannons, rubber bullets, and tear gas at protestors to prevent protestors from bringing down barricades. [See, AiR No. 32, August/2021, 2]

Thailand: Immigration Bureau denies involvement with watch-list

(pr) The Immigration Bureau denied that it was involved with a secret government watch-list containing immigration details of opposition lawmakers and anti-government protestors and critics. The Bureau insisted that people can leave the country as long as they do not have arrest warrants issued against them.
The document did not specify which organization issued it, but a first name was provided and it led to the speculation that an officer from the Immigration Bureau updated the list. The origins, authenticity of the document, and whether it is used by the government remains unknown.

The explanation followed an online post by opposition lawmaker of the Move Forward Party (MFP), Rangsiman Rome, about the leaked watch-list classified as top secret. It included the names, date of birth, and immigration status of people who may pose a threat to national security. His name, three other lawmakers from his party, 179 other people, and 19 Facebook users were on the list. He questions whether the government viewed MFP and those critical of the government as their foes. [The Nation]

Protest figures such as Parit "Penguin" Chiwarak and Panusya "Roong" Sitthijirawattanakul, human rights lawyers, journalists, political activists, government and monarchy critics in-exile, and former executives of the dissolved Future Forward Party as the precursor of the MFP such as Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit were also included. [Khaosod, in Thai] [Prachatai, in Thai] 

Thailand: Government faces censure debate in parliament and lawsuits in court

(pr) The opposition led by Pheu Thai Party will submit a motion for a censure debate against Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha and five other ministers to the Parliament President Chuan Leekpai on 16 August.

The no-confidence motion will target Prayuth and Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and focus on the government’s mismanagement of the COVID-19 pandemic, corruption and plight of the public. [The Nation]

The other ministers targeted are Transport Minister, Agriculture and Cooperatives Minister, Labour Minister. Digital Economy and Society Minister. [Bangkok Post 1]
Meanwhile, politicians and associated groups are also preparing to sue Prayut for mishandling the global health crisis. The opposition Move Forward Party brought together around 100 people to file for a class-action lawsuit in the Civil Court for compensation from damage including business closures caused by the government’s failure to handle the pandemic. [Bangkok Post 2]

On another front, the Thai Sang Thai Party led by Sudarat Keyuraphan, also the former chief strategist of Pheu Thai Party, collected 700,000 names to file for criminal action against the Prime Minister and the government. They accuse them of neglect of duty and malfeasance under the criminal code, and the breach of duty to provide public health services and the right to protection from diseases under the Constitution for the mismanagement of the pandemic. [Thai Enquirer]

As of August 16, there have been 948,442 Covid-19 cases to date since the pandemic started early last year. More than 900,000 of the cases came from the third-wave in April 2021. [Bangkok Post 3]

The government had been widely criticized for their slow vaccination roll-out and failure to prpvide risk diversification in vaccine procurement, the import of vaccines with low efficacy, as well as misallocation of medical resources.  

Thailand: Parliament prepares to deliberate on the 2022 budget bill, charter amendment bill

(pr) Parliament President Chuan Leekpai confirmed that Parliament is set to deliberate on the 2022 budget bill from August 18-20 after concerns that it might be postponed due to the pandemic and travel restrictions.

As to the speculation that Prime Minister Prayut would dissolve the House and call for snap elections after the budget has passed, Chuan dismissed the question and said the duty of the House was to finish parliamentary deliberations on the budget bill. Under the constitution, the House of Representatives has to complete deliberations on the budget bill within 105 days. [The Nation] The budget bill passed its first reading back in June. [see, AiR No. 23, June/2021, 2]

Meanwhile, the constitutional amendment bill, which has been scrutinized by a 72-member committee, has been submitted to Mr. Chuan to be included in the agenda for its second and third readings. [Thai PBS World]

It passed the first reading in June. The bill proposed amendments to Sections 83 and 91 to adjust the proportions of lawmakers from currently 350 constituency MPs and 150 party-list MPs to 400 and 100, respectively. It also sought to revert from the current single ballot for constituency and party-list MPs to two separate ballots – a system that is believed to benefit large and well-known parties capable of mounting energetic nation-wide election campaigns. [see, AiR No. 26, June/2021, 5] 

The examination committee also proposed changes to other provisions to maintain textual consistency with the two primary changes. The committee also shortened certain timeframes including the certification of results by the Election Commission from within 60 days from the election date to 30 days, and that the Joint Sitting of Parliament must finalize its deliberation on the Organic Law on the Election of Members of the House of Representatives within 120 days instead of 180 days. [Matichon, in Thai]

The change from the current single-ballot system to two ballots may result in reduction of lawmaker seats for middle-sized parties, such as the MFP, and Bhumjaithai Party and consequently alter the political and landscape, according to observers. Also, since it tends to benefits bigger parties, it might bring a significant change to the political landscape, and consequently may result in a possible alliance between the two largest parties, the ruling Palang Pracharat (PPRP) and Pheu Thai (PTP) of the opposition. However, a Pheu Thai lawmaker denied the alliance forge due to different political standpoints. [Bangkok Post]  

Supporting the speculation of the alliance was the disagreement between PTP and Move Forward Party (MFP) on the transfer of $488 million to central emergency budget. [see, AiR No. 32, August/2021, 2]

Thailand: Protest crackdown intensifies, while tensions escalate over the weekend 

(pr) When protesters returned to the streets over the weekend, police used tear gas, water cannons, and rubber bullets to disperse them. On Saturday, protestors marched to buildings related to cabinet members such as Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha, Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, Deputy Agriculture and Cooperatives Minister Thamanat Prompow to call for their resignations. 

The protests became more violent as protestors threw stones, big firecrackers, and ping pong bombs at the police as they tried to enter barricaded areas. Some protestors vandalized government property. The police arrested more than 60 people and are pressing charges against at least 300 people involved. The protest was led by the United Front of Thammasat and Demonstration, and the Tha Lu Fah Group (Pierce the Sky). [Bangkok Post 1] [Bangkok Post 2] [Bangkok Post 3] 

Nattawut Saikuar, a key protest leader of the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD), referred to as red-shirts that demonstrated in parts in favor of ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, in parts in favor of progressive reforms of the governance system, had warned protestors that violence was likely work in favor of the establishment as it may provide a reason to call in the military which may use more forceful measures against protesters. Violence may also reduce the legitimacy and supporters of the rallies. He vowed to lead a peaceful car protest rally on August 15, which however also clashed with the police violently. [Bangkok Post 5] [Bangkok Post 6] Reportedly, one protester with a bullet in his head in is a coma. Police denied the use of live ammunition. [Reuters]

Still, the support by the protest veterans of the red shirts broadens the basis of pro-democracy protests. According to experts, however, Prayuth is unlikely to give in as long as he pertains the support of Thailand’s core interest groups, the monarchy, the military and big business. [Voice of America]In a related development, key protest leaders are being arrested or have their bail revoked for their recent political activity. [Prachatai English 1] [See, AiR No. 32, August/2021, 2] Royal defamation is an offense under the country’s criminal code with a maximum prison sentence of 15 years. [See, AiR No. No. 32, August/2021, 2] [The Nation]

According to the legal aid group Thai Lawyers for Human Rights, prison officers tried to prevent lawyers from seeing the detained activists for a variety of reasons including COVID-19 prevention measures, and that lawyers broke the rules by publishing a record of a meeting with the activists, which raises concerns for the activists’ well-being. The lawyers said the activists had bruises and other minor injuries. [Prachatai English 2]  

Promptly, escalating tensions have resulted in the police discussing the possibility of requesting the assistance of soldiers to subdue the violence. A source said the armed forces refrained from involvement. A meeting of the armed forces reportedly said the police was responsible for handling the protestors while the soldiers are responsible for the security of the palace and military sites. [Bangkok Post 4] Still, observers fear that the rise of violence could lead to a forceful crackdown, declaration of martial law, or another coup. Prayut could lead a coup d’etat against himself and declare martial law or a separate faction of the military dissatisfied of his leadership may stage a coup against him. At present, the public is becoming more and more anxious due to the government’s inability to resolve the COVID-19 crisis amid months of lockdown, low inoculation rate and slow vaccine procurement. This led to public speculation on former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s return. He was ousted by a military coup in 2006. His sister, Yingluck Shinawatra was ousted in the 2014 coup led by the-then General and current Prime Minister Prayut [South Morning China Post]  Thaksin, currently in exile, has become more active on social media and observers believe he is planning to return to power. [See, AiR No. No. 32, August/2021, 2]

Thailand: Media rights restriction and internet censorship order may constitute charter violation

(pr) Opposition parties and academics question whether Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha violated the constitution by issuing a media gag order, which he subsequently repealed after a court injunction was granted.

The order prohibits the distribution of "fake news" or information causing public fear. It also empowered Internet Service Providers to check on IP addresses and suspend services. Its ambiguous wording left open the possibility that even sharing correct information could be a violation.

Therefore, the opposition camp petitioned the National Anti-Corruption Commission to investigate whether the prime minster abused his power. The opposition camp also prepared to forward the case to the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions for the prime minister’s impeachment. [Nikkei Asia]

The Civil Court granted an injunction against enforcement of the order after media outlets petitioned to the court reasoning that the order threatened press freedom and was unnecessary as other less restrictive means to block internet content is available under other laws.  [see, AiR No. 32, August/2021, 2]

Vietnam: PM orders law revision to solve difficulties in investment, business

(ct) Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has sent a dispatch to several ministers, ordering a revision of laws to address difficulties in investment and business amid the complex developments of the COVID-19 pandemic. The PM asked to speed up the process of amending and supplementing legal regulations that are causing challenges for investment, production and business activities in the fields specified in 29 laws related to State management of 10 ministries. In addition, for the remaining local recommendations on the amendment and supplementation of regulations, the Government Office should be assigned to send them to ministries and ministerial-level agencies for further review. [Việt Nam News]

UN Vietnam coordinator to leave office

(ct) On August 12, during the meeting with outgoing UN Resident Coordinator Kamal Malhotra, President Phuc reaffirmed that Vietnam attaches great importance to multilateralism and international law and supports the United Nations’ (UN) central role in promoting international solidarity and cooperation to address global challenges, maintain peace and security, and achieve world prosperity. Vietnam will continue to be an active member of the international community and the UN, actively and responsibly contribute to the UN Security Council, and participate in UN peacekeeping missions, while promoting the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals, said Phuc. He added the country will run for a seat in the UN Human Rights Council for the 2023 – 2025 tenure. In reply, Malhotra thanked Vietnamese public agencies and sectors for their assistance for UN organizations. Malhotra affirmed Vietnam has an increasingly important role and voice in the UN thanks to its active and responsible participation in and contribution to common affairs of the international community and the UN. He added that the highest priority of UN organizations now is to support Viet Nam’s COVID-19 response, especially in accessing vaccines through the COVAX Facility and in the transfer of vaccine production technologies so that Viet Nam can be self-sufficient in vaccine. [Việt Nam News]

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

Geopolitical Shifts: Eurasia´s Sino-Russian axis, the fall of Kabul, and the “Summit of Democracies” 

(hg) Events over recent days are indicating that the Eurasian equation of power is shifting further away from the West. Instead, large parts of Eurasia could soon emerge as an increasingly coherent power structure opposing Western interests and aspirations. The Sino-Russian strategic partnership at the heart of this structure has just fully revealed its character as a de-facto or proto- alliance by the major joint military exercises Russia and China concluded in Northeast China last Friday only two days before the fall of Kabul to the Taliban. With it, the emerging Russian-Chinese axis has gained substantially including chances of future advancements on the Eurasian chessboard. 

Both, deepening relations between Beijing and Moscow and the implementation of an Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan with friendly relations to the two leading Eurasian powers, deserve great attention. 

The Sino-Russian military drills, whose start has been reported in the last AiR issue, have been hailed with full right after their conclusion by both participating powers as a milestone event. 

With joint command centers not only at the tactical but the strategic level at the two forces´ highest echelons of command, the exercises displayed an unprecedented level of cooperation and coordination between the two countries´ forces almost on an alliance-like level. Critically was the objective to familiarize the participating forces with each other´s key weapons to achieve interoperability and to coordinate both country´s armed forces at a strategic level. A noteworthy detail is the familiarization with technical features and tactical concepts of key weapon systems that included also particularly sensitive technology such as China´s 5th generation stealth fighter jet J-20 proving a considerable degree of mutual trust among the de-facto allies whose declared major adversary is the US. 

According to China`s Global Times “The drills displayed not only on a strategic level, but also on tactical and technical levels that China and Russia are no allies but better than allies, and are capable of jointly tackling regional security issues including terrorism as well as global challenges brought up by countries like the US [Global Times, see also Asia Nikkei, Defense News]” 

Essentially, the Sino-Russian strategic partnership lacks, however, not only a treaty that is legally stipulating a binding commitment in case of a military aggression against one of the treaty parties but also lacks any institutional structure that would even remotely remind of those integrating the thirty NATO member states. Such a joint structure could, for instance, include a governance body, a headquarter, and differentiated command structure which all is far away from materializing between Russia and China at the moment yet.  

Still, the Sino-Russian advancement develops as a significant advancement and at a critical juncture with regard of the geostrategic implications of the Taliban take-over in Afghanistan. 

If the Taliban leadership is able to avoid the megalomaniac autism many warriors of faith have developed before them and if it is able and willing to be a reliable partner in exchange for foreign support and diplomatic reinforcement, China and, albeit to a lesser degree, Russia could turn out to be the major winner of another round of the Great Game lost this time by the West.   

It remains to be seen though if the Taliban leadership is strong enough to integrate and discipline not only the various factions and groups of its own quite heterogeneous organization but also the country´s numerous multi-ethnic armed groups beside the Pashtuns that dominate the Taliban. If the constructive talks the Taliban leadership had in recent months and weeks especially with Moscow and Beijing will be duly followed up by the Taliban´s Islamic Emirates leadership, Afghanistan might, however, align with the Sino-Russian alliance. It could then firmly integrate itself in the Eurasian institutional set-up dominated by Russia and China with the Eurasian Economic Union and – in particular - the Belt and Road Initiative as its two most important elements. 

To not be mistaken, neither Russia and China nor Afghanistan and its new Eurasian friends might be easy partners for each other. Partly diverging interests, difficulties in cooperation and risks emerging out of cooperation have, however, always characterized alliances and never prevented allies and partners to stand and fight together as long as the alternative was even worse. A case in point is Pakistan that supported the Taliban operating in Afghanistan while fighting their brothers in arms in Pakistan itself, which has its own Taliban movement that uses to fiercely attack the Pakistani forces that lends support to the Afghan Taliban. NATO is for instance experiencing its own problems with diverging interests, difficulties and risks attached to its cooperation with NATO member state Turkey under President Erdogan. 

Experiences of such contradictory and yet maintained cooperation projects should be kept in mind when the emerging Eurasian partnerships get counted by observers from the beginning. [see for instance a Foreign Affairs´piece on Russia and China, and a CNN article on China´s opportunities and risks in Afghanistan]

Contrary to the more sceptic outlooks, the best case scenario for China would be the full integration of a mineral rich and geostrategic important Afghanistan in its BRI network with a route connecting China and Iran through Afghanistan.

Noteworthy, Iran´s President Ebrahim Raisi has been sworn in earlier this month as a hardliner who is seen to be in favor of an entrenchment of Sino-Iranian relations.[Xinhua]

Now, on Monday this week, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and the Chinese Special Envoy for Afghan Affairs held a meeting in Tehran to talk about the latest developments in Afghanistan. [Tasnim News, For a skeptical voice on the outlooks of Sino – Iranian relations see Eurasia net].

Would both Iran and Afghanistan develop significantly increasing ties with China and its partner Russia, this could change the geopolitical equation of the Middle East to the core. Given Iran´s heft as a regional power and the patron state of the region’s Shiite countries which are forming a crescent from Iran over Iraq, Syria and Lebanon to Yemen, Chinese – Syrian advances last month are gaining further weight with the fall of Kabul.   

When Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Damascus last month, both countries not only pledged to deepen cooperation in the BRI framework but Wang Yi also stressed that China opposes any attempt to seek regime change in Syria “reaffirming China's strong support for Syria in safeguarding national sovereignty, territorial integrity and national dignity”, and supporting Syria in opposing unilateral sanctions. [Global china Daily]

If these dynamics of a Eurasian integration under Sino-Russian signs consolidate, while India is deepening ties with partners on the Arabic peninsula, the Sino-Russian advancement and the disastrous Western experience in Afghanistan offer an interesting opportunity to grasp a possible geostrategic future that would lead to increasing pressure and volatility on the global system in its entirety. 

For Europe, the looming possibility of a deepening Eurasian integration under Sino-Russian signs are relevant also concerning its own borders. If this integration would consolidate, China would get more than Russia, increasing its influence in Central Asia and the Middle East way more than its partner. While this would increase tensions over territories forming the rather the Russian than the Chinese backyard, these disadvantages would likely not be enough to leave the de-facto alliance but support a redirection of Moscow’s geostrategic focus to its European borders and interests.  

In any case, it is likely that the fall of Afghanistan will overshadow US President Biden`s “Summit of Democracies” in December which is badly needed to restate the Western vision and commitment to global order. What still will be remembered then are three things. First, Western military power appeared far less impressive than it has been around twenty years ago when Kabul was taken. Second, Western nation building efforts with their intrinsic normative code have failed badly in Iraq and now also in Afghanistan despite all the money, blood, and knowledge that has been invested over a period of two decades. One of the reasons for this failure are, however, not necessarily these normative aspirations but their comprising by bad alliances, double standards, and hypocrisy. Third, instead of lamenting a battle lost in the war for freedom and acknowledging those who paid, who pay and who will pay the price, the US President blamed exactly those who trusted their Western partners and are likely to suffer for having done so in the coming days and weeks. Arguably one of the most challenging subject of a Summit of Democracies in our times and against this background is the problem to maintain the West´s normative identity and proactive diplomacy with regard of the temptations of a hypocrisy that undermines both its integrity and its attractiveness for others to partner up with it. [For the summit of democracies see “Summit of Democracies” The White House, Forbes, for the consequences of also inviting Taiwan see South China Morning Post] 

China, Pakistan, and Russia set to increase Afghanistan influence

(lm) Regional powers will see their influence increase dramatically in Afghanistan as the United States executes a hasty, haphazard withdrawal and the Taliban seize control over the country two decades after being toppled from power by Washington. [Associated Press]

Russia, Pakistan and China have all signaled a readiness to transition smoothly into engaging with Taliban authorities with varying levels of enthusiasm. But the insurgents’ return has also stoked fears in those countries that Afghanistan will once again become a base of operations for modern Islamist terrorist organizations that could carry out attacks on their own soil. [The Guardian]

Pakistan

Of all its regional neighbors, Pakistan – long accused of being a major force behind the Taliban – appeared the most exuberant in welcoming the Islamist militants’ return to power.

Prime Minister Imran Khan said the Taliban had “broken the chains of slavery”. The prime minister was not alone in portraying the Taliban’s victory as a triumph: Siraj ul Haq, the chief of Jamaat-e-Islami, an Islamic political party, said in a speech it was a “historic win over a superpower” and would create “an exemplary Islamic government in Afghanistan”. [Al Jazeera 1]

The strategic calculus for Islamabad is that it would enjoy more influence and leverage in Kabul under Taliban rule, giving it a strong regional ally aligned with its Islamic values. However, many fear the strength of the Taliban’s resurgence will further embolden Pakistan’s leading Taliban group, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, thereby deepening insecurity, especially in the tribal areas along its conflict-prone western border [see AiR No. 27, July/2021, 1].

Russia

Despite naming the Taliban a terrorist group, Russia appears ready to engage if it can ensure security for its own diplomats and prevent Islamist extremism from spilling over the borders into central Asian allies such as Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. [Al Jazeera 2]

The Russian Presidential envoy to Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, even dangled the possibility that Moscow would recognize the Taliban government based “on the behaviour of the new authorities”, a major prize for the insurgents that would also indicate Russia sees itself as a potential intermediary as the West completes its troop withdrawal.

For now, the Russians are staying put. Taliban forces have “taken the external perimeter of the Russian embassy under protection”, Kabulov said on August 16, adding that Russia was among a number of countries to receive assurances from the Taliban that their embassies would be safe. [The Moscow Times]

Moscow last week moved tanks to the Tajikistan-Afghanistan frontier for military drills, and conducted separate exercises with China, which were aimed at “demonstrating the determination and ability of Russia and China to fight terrorism” [see AiR No. 32, August/2021, 2]. The timing, as the Taliban raced to victory, was no coincidence.

China

For China, in turn, the Taliban's takeover opens a strategic door laden with both risk and opportunity. [Bloomberg]

Last month, the group said it welcomes Beijing as a “friend” to Afghanistan and expressed their hope to quickly engage in talks with China about investing in reconstruction work. [AiR No. 28, July/2021, 2]

On July 28 then, Foreign Minister Wang Yi welcomed a nine-member Taliban delegation to the northeastern city of Tianjin as the group made gains against the administration of President Ashraf Ghani. Wang’s endorsement of the Taliban’s important role in the process of peaceful reconciliation and reconstruction” of Afghanistan significantly raised the international stature of a group that has long been a global pariah due to its support of terrorism and the repression of women. [AiR No. 31, August/2021, 1]

Perhaps no issue is as pressing for Beijing as ensuring that Afghanistan does not become a staging point for minority Uyghur separatists in the sensitive border region of its Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Foreign Minister Wang pressed Taliban negotiator and co-founder of the group Mullah Baradar Akhund during their meeting to make a “clean break” with the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, a Muslim separatist group founded by militant Uighurs in Xinjiang.

China is also showing its pragmatism in its approach. “What China could do is participate in the postwar reconstruction and provide investment to help the country’s future development,” the Global Times quoted a senior Chinese government expert as saying on August 15. [Global Times]

And on August 16, China’s Foreign Ministry said it was ready to develop "friendly and cooperative" relations with Afghanistan, but also noted Taliban promises that Afghanistan would not serve as a staging ground for “acts detrimental to China”. [ABC News]

United States reaches out to China and Russia on Afghanistan

(lm) US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on August 15 spoke with his counterparts in China and Russia about the security situation in Afghanistan. [France24] [The Hill]

The calls come as both Beijing and Moscow have signaled an openness to recognizing and working with the Taliban, which over the weekend swiftly ousted the Western-backed government in the Afghan capital, Kabul. [see entry in this edition]

In a flurry of diplomatic phone calls, the US top diplomat also spoke with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, the European Union’s High Representative Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, as well as his counterparts from Pakistan, the United Kingdom and Turkey.

In their discussion on how their countries could work together to achieve a “soft landing” for Afghanistan, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Blinken that the hasty pullout of United States troops from the country had a "serious negative impact". He also said that the facts on the ground proved that a foreign model could not be arbitrarily applied to a country with different cultural and historical conditions, according to China's state broadcaster CCTV. [Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China 1] [The Straits Times]

The Chinese top diplomat pledged to work with the United States to help prevent a new civil war or humanitarian disaster in Afghanistan, but warned that Washington should not count on Beijing’s cooperation while it was deliberately working to contain the country and hurts its interests. [South China Morning Post 1]

Wang also urged Blinken to reverse the Trump administration’s decision to remove the East Turkestan Islamic Movement – a Muslim separatist group founded by militant Uighurs in China’s Xinjiang region – from its list of designated terrorist organizations.

Prior to his phone call with US Secretary of State Blinken, Wang had spoken to his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov, with both sides agreeing that Beijing and Moscow should step up their communication and coordination over Afghanistan, according to a readout from the Chinese Foreign Ministry. [Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China 2]

Similarly, in his phone call with the Russian foreign minister, Blinken discussed US efforts to bring American citizens and vulnerable Afghans to safety. [TASS]

The abrupt fall of Kabul saw Chinese official media play up the rhetoric about the US’ decaying global hegemony, with daily tabloid newspaper Global Times calling the chaos in Afghanistan “a lesson that Taiwan needs to learn”. [Global Times] [South China Morning Post]

Afghan government sought air support from India, report says

(lm) A week before the Taliban fighters entered Kabul on August 15, the Afghan government sought “robust air support” from India to help push back the advancing insurgents, The Print has reported, citing sources from the administration of now-departed President Ashraf Ghani. [The Print]

The Delhi-based outlet wrote that Afghan foreign Minister Mohammed Haneef Atmar and his Indian counterpart, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, discussed Indian Air Force (IAF) assistance in a phone conversation. But New Delhi reportedly turned down the request.

The Kabul administration’s “aggressive” push for IAF support as the militants were taking over most of Afghanistan in a matter of days. It also came after General Kenneth McKenzie, Chief of the United States Central Command (CENTCOM), had made clear that Washington would not continue airstrikes after the withdrawal of US and other international forces from the country on August 31.

China, Korea hit out at Japan over ministers’ visit to controversial shrine on war-end anniversary

(lm) China and South Korea have called on Japan to face up to its wartime past to build trust with its neighbors, after a series of visits by Japanese cabinet members to a shrine that remains a potent symbol of its Tokyo’s wartime legacy in East Asia and a flashpoint for regional tension.

Established in 1869, Yasukuni Shrine is a Japanese Shinto to war dead who served the Emperor of Japan during wars from 1867 to 1951. Since 1978 those honored have included 14 World War II leaders convicted as "Class A" war criminals by the International Military Tribunal for the Far East in 1948, among them the wartime prime minister, Hideki Tōjō. China, South Korea and North Korea consider the shrine a microcosm of a revisionist and unapologetic approach to Japanese crimes of World War II. [Reuters 1]

Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi visited Yasukuni Shrine on August 13 – the first visit by a defense minister since 2016 – two days prior to the anniversary of Japan's surrender in World War II. [Reuters 2]

Later the same, the South Korean Foreign Ministry summoned the deputy chief of mission at the Japanese Embassy in Seoul to lodge a protest over protest Kishi’s visit, which it called "beyond deplorable." China, in turn, urged Japan to “seriously reflect on its history of aggression, keep in mind the historical lessons, correct its mistakes and gain the trust of its Asian neighbors and the international community through concrete actions.” [The Japan Times] [The Korea Times]

On August 15, however, at least three more Japanese Cabinet members, including Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi and Education Minister Koichi Hagiuda; as well as former prime minister Shinzo Abe, paid what they said were personal respects at the shrine. Abe – the older brother of Defense Minister Kishi – had visited Yasukuni Shrine as prime minister in 2013, sparking outrage from Beijing and Seoul and an expression of “disappointment” from the United States. He did not go again in official capacity, thereafter, sending ritual offerings instead [see AiR No. 16, April/2020, 3].

Later the same day, China’s Foreign Ministry expressed “strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition” over what it called “the desecration of historical justice” by the Japanese officials. [South China Morning Post]

South Korean President Moon Jae-in, in turn, said his government remained open for dialogue with Japan to step up cooperation, while seeking to resolve historical rows that had long frayed bilateral ties. Moon, in his Liberation Day speech marking the anniversary of the peninsula’s independence from Japan’s colonial rule, said the two countries should work together to “surmount difficulties” and foster cooperation based on shared values of democracy and market economy. [Al Jazeera] [Bloomberg]

Moon’s speech came weeks after he scrapped a plan to visit Tokyo for the Olympics and hold his first summit with Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga. The South Korean leader called the meeting off after what his office called unacceptable remarks by a Seoul-based Japanese diplomat. [AiR No. 29, July/2021, 3]

Meanwhile in Tokyo the same day, Japanese Prime Minister Suga pledged that his country would not wage war again. But he did not offer an apology to the Asian victims of Japanese aggression across the region in the first half of the 20th century – a precedent set by his predecessor Shinzo Abe, who was frequently accused of trying to whitewash his country’s past. His comments were echoed by Emperor Naruhito who expressed “deep remorse” for Japan’s wartime past, as he has previously done. [The Straits Times]

Ties between South Korea and Japan are at their lowest point in decades in recent years, following a string of diplomatic, historic, and economic issues, including disagreement over the handling of wartime forced labor, the planned disposal of Fukushima wastewater into the Pacific Ocean, and Japanese export curbs on materials vital for South Korea’s semiconductor industry. [AiR No. 28, July/2021, 2]

Chinese court sentences Canadian Michael Spavor to 11 years for spying

(lm) A Chinese court sentenced businessmen Michael Spavor to 11 years in prison on espionage charges in the first of two national-security cases involving Canadian citizens that sit at the center of a fierce standoff with both Canada and the United States. [France24] [The Wall Street Journal, $]

On August 11, the Dandong Intermediate People’s Court in northeastern Liaoning province announced Spavor had been found guilty of “probing into and illegally providing state secrets” to foreign actors. In addition to his jail term, he was also sentenced to confiscation of personal assets, and fined 50,000 yuan ($7,715). The court said Spavor would also be deported, without specifying whether it was before or after he served his prison sentence. [BBC]

The Canadian will have ten days to appeal the court’s decision.

Authorities in China have yet to announce a date for the verdict or sentencing of the other detained Canadian, Michael Kovrig. A former Canadian diplomat who worked for the International Crisis Group (ICG), Kovrig is accused of "stealing sensitive information and intelligence through contacts in China since 2017."

Both men have spent 975 days in detention and were tried separately in secret in March. Canadian diplomats were denied access.

The Spavor verdict comes a day after a Chinese court rejected the appeal of a third Canadian, Robert Schellenberg, on a drug smuggling conviction. Schellenberg's initial 15-year jail term was changed to a death sentence at a retrial in December 2018 after the prosecution said it had uncovered new evidence. [AiR No. 32, August/2021, 2]

All three cases are suspected to be linked to the ongoing extradition hearing in Canada of Meng Wanzhou, chief financial officer of Chinese tech giant Huawei. For the detention of Spavor and Kovrig came just days after the arrest in Vancouver of Meng over allegations the company violated United States sanctions on Iran, drawing accusations by critics of “hostage diplomacy”. [The Guardian]

Meng, whose extradition hearing is now in its final stages, has been held under house arrest in Vancouver since 2018. Her hearings are due to end on August 20, but no decision is expected for several months. Moreover, while the final decision on whether to surrender Meng to the US rests with Canada’s Justice Minister David Lametti, legal experts expect the ruling will be appealed, potentially dragging out the case for years. [South China Morning Post]

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has repeatedly refused to consider any trade of Spavor and Kovrig for Meng, whose detention has seen relations plunge between the two countries hit rock bottom, with Beijing also accusing Ottawa of politicizing legal cases. [CNN]

Japan to revise 5-year defense plan ahead of schedule; Defense Ministry seeks ‘drastic’ increase in budget

(lm) Japan plans to revise its five-year defense budget plan – two years earlier than originally scheduled –as Tokyo looks to boost military spending to counter China’s growing assertiveness in surrounding waters and prepare for contingencies in the Taiwan Strait, Kyodo News reported, citing people familiar with the discussions. [South China Morning Post]

Approved in 2018 by the Cabinet of then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the Mid-Term Defense Program (MTDP) is a five-year plan formulated in recognition of the latest National Defense Program Guidelines adopted the same year, which placed greater emphasis on the development of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) conventional capabilities and the deterrence of high-intensity conflict. [AiR (2/1/2018)]

The MTDP set aside about $250 billion with a stipulation that the plan could be reviewed after three years taking into consideration the security situation at that time. Thus, the program could be updated within the year, with Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and Defence Minister Nobuo Kishi having agreed earlier this month that some changes are warranted.

The revision would seek to fulfil Prime Minister Suga’s promise to US President Joe Biden during their meeting in Washington in April to bolster Japan’s defense capabilities to strengthen the alliance between their countries and maintain security in the Indo-Pacific region. [AiR No. 16, April/2021, 3]

News about the imminent revision of the MTDP follow on the heels of the Ministry of Defense in July releasing its annual “Defense of Japan” white paper, outlining the current state of Japan’s defense, security policies and regional and global threats. To analysts, the paper gave some indication Japan was willing to meet a long-standing US desire for a more assertive security partner, as Tokyo for the time directly linked Taiwan’s security with its own and with regional stability more widely. [AiR No. 28, July/2021, 2]

In related news, the Defense Ministry is seeking a significant increase in its budget request to fall in line with the revision. The budget request, which the ministry is expected to compile by the end of August, will far exceed $48.4 billion included in the fiscal 2021 budget. [The Asahi Shimbun]

Prime Minister Suga told Newsweek magazine last week that his country was not constrained to keep defense spending within 1 percent of the GDP, signaling a willingness to go beyond a long-standing ceiling to cope with a demanding security environment. Suga’s remarks reinforced comments from Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi in May, which had first indicated a looming shift in the country’s defense spending [see AiR No. 21, May/2021, 4]. [Nikkei Asia]

Back then, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) got behind the Defense Ministry when its National Defense Division issued a recommendation the same month asking for a “drastic” increase. LDP lawmakers are calling for a 6-percent increase over last year and said that the minimum amount for the budget request was $49.2 billion. The figure nears the level of the defense spending increase by China, whose defense budget for fiscal 2021 was a 6.8-percent increase over the previous year.

Japan will not join nuclear weapons ban treaty, Prime Minister Suga says

(dx/lm) Addressing two separate events marking the 76th anniversary of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga last week stressed that the country would not sign or ratify a United Nations treaty banning nuclear weapons.

Speaking at the annual memorial ceremony, Nagasaki Mayor Tomihisa Taue urged the government to immediately sign and ratify the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) and join the first meeting of states parties, which is scheduled to take place in Vienna in January next year. In his address, the mayor also asked nuclear powers to join discussions to help maximize the treaty's effectiveness, and said Japan should explore the possibility of creating a nuclear-weapon-free zone in northeast Asia. [Nikkei Asia]

Taue's call on Japan to join the TPNW followed a similar appeal made by Hiroshima Mayor Kazumi Matsui three days ago, when the city, also devastated by an atomic bomb during World War II, observed its annual ceremony. [Jiji, in Japanese]

Prime Minister Suga, however, did not mention the treaty when he addressed the crowd at the respective ceremony. [Mainichi Shimbun 1] [Mainichi Shimbun 2]

It was only during a press conference following the ceremony in Hiroshima that Suga said he had no intention of signing the TPNW. Citing the increasingly severe security environment" surrounding Japan, he lamented that the TPNW was lacking the support from nuclear armed states and non-nuclear states alike, adding that the treaty’s observer states should be extremely cautious in making decisions. [Asahi Shimbun, in Japanese] [Mainichi Shimbun 3]

The TPNW, the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination, went into force this January. The only country to have suffered the wartime use of nuclear weapons, Japan has maintained its three principles of not producing, possessing or allowing nuclear arms on its territory.

But Tokyo supports the retention and potential use of US nuclear weapons on its behalf, as it sits under the United States’ nuclear umbrella and hosts its military facilities under a decades-old bilateral security accord. [International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons]

China fires back at ‘shameless’ United States over Xinjiang human rights abuse claims

(dx/lm) China promised to expose the United States’ “ugly intentions” over claims of human rights abuses in its western region of Xinjiang, accusing the US of hypocrisy as it went on the offensive on August 12. 

In its latest campaign against Washington, the regional government of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region shifted focus away from arguing against allegations of forced labor and mass detention of Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities in the region. Instead, it put emphasis on the US’ own human rights issues such as racial discrimination and mass surveillance. [Global Times] [South China Morning Post]

The remarks come against the larger backdrop of Western countries increasing scrutiny of forced labor of Uyghur and other Muslim minorities in Xinjiang, the world’s leading producer of cotton and raw materials used in solar panels. [AiR No. 25, June/2021, 4]

In the United States in particular, lawmakers and Biden administration officials are stepping up pressure on American businesses to stop imports from the region. Imports of cotton and tomato products have already been effectively banned since January, and penalties on purchases of some solar materials were implemented in June.

But tougher restrictions are afoot: Last month, the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act was passed unanimously by the US Senate. It now moves to the House, where it is expected to pass easily. The legislation seeks to prohibit imports of all products from Xinjiang unless the importer can prove their items are free of forced labor — a high bar. [The Wall Street Journal, $]

In related news, China’s State Council Information Office (SCIO) last week issued a white paper on the country’s human rights record, hailing achievements in reaching “all-around moderate prosperity”, or "xiaokang". Titled "Moderate Prosperity in All Respects: Another Milestone Achieved in China's Human Rights", it was the second white paper released by the State Council Information Office in 2021 [see AiR No.26, June/2021, 5]. [State Council Information Office]

PLA’s advanced fighters, transport aircraft ready for Russian debut in sign of growing mutual trust

(lm) Three of China’s most advanced military aircraft will make their debut at the Russian-run International Army Games next week, in the latest sign of growing military trust and cooperation between Beijing and Moscow.

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA)’s Air Force has dispatched 11 aircrafts, as well as a team of airborne troops to Russia to participate in the military sports event, China’s official state-run press agency, Xinhua News Agency, reported on August 13. Significantly, the Chengdu J-10 and Shenyang J-16 multirole fighters, as well as the Xi'an Y-20 military transport aircraft will be making their debuts in the competition. [Global Times] [Xinhua News Agency]

This year’s iteration of the International Army Games follows a major, five-day joint military exercise by Chinese and Russian forces in China’s Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, closely watched by the world as a sign of the two countries’ expanding military ties with an eye on their common rival – the United States. [AiR No. 32, August/2021, 2]

Analysts say the debut of the three advanced military aircraft also reflects a shift in China’s military publicity strategy, to one that is more open-minded, confident and transparent. [South China Morning Post]

South China Sea: China ends fishing moratorium in disputed waters

(lm) Thousands of Chinese trawlers headed out into the South China Sea on August 16, as the 3.5-months long fishing memorandum in waters hotly contested by Beijing and its neighbors ended. [Global Times] [South China Morning Post]

China on April 27 had announced an annual fishing moratorium in the waters it claims in the South China Sea, which constitute a vital fishing area crucial for the country’s food security. Imposed since 1999, Beijing claims the restrictions a part of the country’s efforts to promote sustainable marine fishery development and improve marine ecology.

This year’s moratorium, which came into effect on May 1, was considered the toughest ever, with a number of new technologies such as satellite positioning, video surveillance and big data management used for maritime law enforcement.

The trawlers will be competing for catches with fleets from the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam and Taiwan, which also lay claims to the South China Sea.

Other countries have accused China of mobilizing fishermen and their boats as part of a “gray-zone” strategy — coercive force short of war — to occupy reefs in the disputed waterway – claims that Beijing denies. Analysts say China maintains the sea’s most obvious maritime militia, although it had in recent years reduced the involvement of civilians in its maritime disputes, in favor of enhancing its coastguard and other official law enforcement forces [see also AiR No. 20, May/2021, 3].

Taiwan: Vessels deployed to Kinmen

(nd) The latest vessel to be stationed by the Coast Guard Administration’s (CGA) was positioned in Kinmen to help with maritime law enforcement, inter alia. Possibly in the future, larger frigates can be deployed to support fishery protection and patrol missions. The deployment comes amid the Chinese government lifting its seasonal fishing ban on August 1. [Taiwan News 1] [See article above]

Meanwhile, the latest intrusion into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) and fifth this month happen on Monday, another one occurred Thursday, with four Chinese fighter jets and two surveillance aircrafts, according to the Ministry of National Defense (MND). Taiwan's Air Force drove away the planes, sent radio warnings and tracked them with land-based anti-aircraft missiles. [Taiwan News 2] Earlier intrusions were carried out by slow-moving turboprops, with the last fighter jet intrusion happening on June 17. The largest intrusion of 28 warfare planes happened on June 15.  [Taiwan News 3]

Additionally, CGA confirmed that a French warship had anchored off the coast of western Taiwan. France's de facto embassy in Taiwan, the French Office in Taipei, has not yet responded to requests for comment. [Taiwan News 4]

China’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) said they opposed any form of military ties between the two countries, saying the Taiwanese Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities will suffer the consequences of “playing with fire”. The Taiwanese government denied such joint patrols even happened. They did however debate illegal fishing with the US during their inaugural virtual coast guard cooperation meeting, agreeing to hold more regular meetings. [Taiwan News 5]

China announced drills off Taiwan

(nd) Accusing the US and Taiwan of “collusion” and “provocations” targeting “Chinese sovereignty”, China’s People's Liberation Army (PLA) has dispatched warships, anti-submarine aircraft and fighter jets to conduct drills southwest and southeast of Taiwan. Since last year, China has been sending its airplanes into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ) in an effort to intimidate Taiwan and pressure it to accept Chinese sovereignty. Additional to seeking air supremacy, PLA is also conducting frequent electronic reconnaissance and electronic interference operations, for what Taiwan believes to gather electronic signals from U.S. and Japanese aircraft in order to paralyse such reinforcing aircraft.

China referred to its drills as necessary to balance the tensions created in the Taiwan Strait by the US and Taiwan. While no location was given in the PLA’s statement, China often exercises near the Taiwan-controlled Pratas Islands at the top part of the South China Sea, and around the Bashi Channel off southern Taiwan.

Last week, the US approved an artillery system sale valued at up to $750 million to Taiwan. [AiR No. 32, August/2021, 2]

Amid recent threats and looming use of force to bring Taiwan under Chinese control, the US has said their commitment to Taiwan was "rock solid", prompting Chinese Global Times to compare Taiwan to Afghanistan, referring to empty promises by the US. [Taiwan News] [Nikkei Asia] [Bloomberg]

Japan developing AI, satellite system to track foreign ships in its waters

(lm) Japan is developing a maritime surveillance system that will use artificial intelligence and advanced satellite technologies to locate and identify foreign ships operating suspiciously close to its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) or that intrude into its territorial waters.

Japan’s EEZ is the eighth largest in the world covering more than 1.47 million square kilometers of the Pacific. At a time when the challenges to Japan’s sovereignty are increasing, Tokyo is finding it difficult to keep track of vessels that enter its vast ocean territories but do not turn on their automatic identifier signal, according to analysts. [South China Morning Post] 

Thus, the aim is to create a monitoring system that covers a vast area and facilitates a prompt response to incidents such as Chinese ships entering Japanese territorial waters near the Senkaku Islands in Okinawa Prefecture that Beijing claims and refers to as the Diaoyu Islands [see AiR No. 25, June/2021, 4]. Japan is also likely to use the system to monitor North Korean and other vessels carrying out at-sea transshipments of items that are banned under United Nations sanctions on Pyongyang, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Efforts to counter illegal operations by foreign fishing vessels are also expected to benefit from the new monitoring system. For there has been a sharp increase in the number of North Korean and Chinese boats identified on the Yamato Bank, a rich fishing ground within Japan’s EEZ. Tokyo has issued exclusion orders to 80 Chinese fishing vessels suspected of illegally operating in Japanese waters in the first four months of this year, with the annual total expected to top the 138 orders issued last year.

The government is earmarking an initial $4.1 million for the new monitoring system under the third supplementary budget for fiscal 2020, with technology companies being invited to submit proposals for the system. The plan is for the system to be deployed as early as fiscal 2024, The Yomiuri Shimbun reported. [The Yomiuri Shimbun]

Laos, Russia to start joint military exercise 

(ct) The press office of Russia’s Eastern Military District reported on Wednesday that troops of Russia and Laos kicked off joint drills in the Primorsky Region in the Russian Far East. The “Laros-2021” drills foresees firings by tank crews and tactical episodes with a live-fire exercise and will last through August 19. Moreover, a cultural and recreational program and sports competitions are also scheduled for the personnel of the two countries participating in the joint manoeuvres. In total, about 500 servicemen of the two countries are involved in the exercise, about 100 units of military equipment, including Su-25 attack aircraft and Ka-52 air defence attack helicopters. The Laotian servicemen will use the Russian armoured vehicles provided to them. [Laotian Times]

South Korea displays ability to develop nuclear-powered submarine

(aml) On Friday, the South Korean Navy has received its first 3,000 tone submarine capable of launching ballistic missiles firing capabilities (SLBMs). The new submarine that is named Dosan Ahn Chang-ho, after a freedom fighter, enables South Korea to hit North Korea and missile bases in China. South Korea however, neither is nuclear-powered nor allowed to deploy nuclear weapons. [Korea Times] [SCMP]

Lithuania to reiterate decision to open representative office named “Taiwan”

(nd) Following diplomatic reactions from both sides after Lithuania announced to have a representative office named “Taiwan” in Lithuania, [See also AiR No. 32, August/2021, 2] Lithuania President Gitanas Nauseda said they were independent and able to decide which countries to develop a relationship with. He added that the “one China” policy was implemented after Lithuania established diplomatic relations with China in 1991. In the document signed for the establishment of diplomatic relations with China, however, Lithuania agreed not to establish or encourage any official relationship with Taiwan. [Taiwan News 1] The Taiwanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) supported the Baltic nation for its "resolute will" to defend its national dignity and freedom and stand up to China. [Taiwan News 2]

US State Department spokesman Ned Price condemned China’s reaction towards Lithuania and reassured that the US stands in solidarity with Lithuania. [Nikkei Asia] During a call, US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman reiterated the US’s support to Lithuania's foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, referring to China's "coercive behaviour". [Reuters]

French conservative newspaper Le Figaro commented, Taiwan may be viewed as a province by China, but it is a state for everybody else. The opening of this de-facto embassy in a European capital would be the first in 18 years.  [Taiwan News 3] 

On Monday, non-profit US Council of State Governments passed a resolution on Monday encouraging each state to establish representative offices in Taiwan to strengthen bilateral trade and economic relations and to enter driver's license reciprocity agreements to ensure mobility. The latter exists already with 35 US states since 2013. The resolution also reiterated support for Taiwan's participation in international organizations, like the World Health Organization (WHO), the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the International Criminal Police Organization (INTERPOL). [Focus Taiwan]

United States, China stress importance of dialogue and communication to resolve issues

(lm) Meeting with US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, China’s newly appointed Ambassador to Washington, Qin Gang, said on August 12 that he is committed to promoting a "rational, stable, manageable and constructive" Beijing-Washington relationship. [The Straits Times]

Qin Gang – a diplomat whose record of vigorously contesting Western criticism suggests that Beijing is bracing for a period of extended tensions with Washington –struck an optimistic tone as he arrived in the US in late July to take up his post, saying “the door of US-China relations, which is already open, cannot and should not be closed”. [AiR No. 31, August/2021, 1]

Two days prior to Qin’s arrival in Washington, Sherman held high-level talks in China, meeting with her Chinese counterpart Xie Feng and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in the city of Tianjin for talks that ended with both sides signaling that the other must make concessions for ties to improve. [AiR No. 30, July/2021, 4]

During last week’s meeting, Qin said the bilateral relationship was at a new crossroads, and he would follow the spirit of the telephone conversation between President Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden on February 11 to enhance communication and dialogue with the US side and work to promote that relationship [see AiR No. 7, February/2021, 3].

Details of the meeting were not immediately available. The only issue to be directly mentioned in reporting by China’s official state-run press agency, Xinhua News Agency, was Chinese-claimed Taiwan, which the Chinese diplomat described as “the most important and sensitive issue in Sino-U.S. relations”. [CNBC]

Sri Lanka, India, Maldives to cooperate on maritime safety and security

(lm) As strategic rivalries in the Indian Ocean Region continue to intensify, a multilateral grouping comprising of India, Sri Lanka and the Maldives last week hold a virtual gathering that brought together the top security officials of the three countries. [South China Morning Post]

The Colombo Security Conclave on August 4 hosted its second meeting in eight months, during which the neighbors emphasized “four pillars” of cooperation, including maritime security, counterterrorism, human trafficking and cybersecurity. [The Hindu]

The Deputy National Security Adviser-level meeting was hosted online by Sri Lanka, and chaired by General Shavendra Silva, the Acting Chief of Defence Staff and Commander of the Sri Lankan Army. The Indian deputy National Security Adviser and his Maldivian counterpart participated.

The group was formed in 2011 and revived in November last year after a six-year hiatus. It is now poised to expand its full-time membership to Bangladesh, Seychelles and Mauritius, which currently hold observer status.

The virtual gathering came nine months after India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval concluded a three-day visit to Sri Lanka – his second visit to the country in 2020. Besides meeting with President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Doval also participated in the 4th National Security Adviser-level meeting of the Maritime Security Cooperation, a trilateral forum with defense ministers from the Maldives and Sri Lanka, with officials from Mauritius and Seychelles attending virtually. [AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1]

Earlier this year then, the navies of the three countries participated in the virtual trilateral tabletop exercise “TTX-2021”, which New Delhi said was symbolic of “the deep trilateral engagement” in the maritime domain between members of the trilateral.

Japan resumes meeting with five Mekong countries

(lm) Japan held a virtual foreign ministerial meeting on August 13 with five Southeast Asian countries along the Mekong River, to reiterate its commitment to the subregion and to reinforce its foreign policy objective of pushing back against Chinese attempts to widen its sphere of influence. [South China Morning Post]

Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi met virtually with his counterparts from Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam under the 14th Mekong – Japan Foreign Ministers’ Meeting.

While this Japan-Mekong meeting takes place annually, it was postponed from its original March date as Tokyo feared that holding it would be seen as recognizing the Myanmar’s military junta which seized power from an elected government. But Japan decided to go ahead after China hosted a meeting with the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) – including Myanmar – in June [see AiR No. 23, June/2021, 2], and the United States also met virtually with the bloc’s foreign ministers on July 14 [see AiR No. 29, July/2021, 3]. [Kyodo News 1]

Last week’s virtual encounter saw Japan pledging additional medical support for the five Mekong River countries – all of which are battling with COVID-19 surges due to the highly contagious Delta variant – on top of around 5.6 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine and $68 million worth of medical equipment including oxygen concentrators.

Foreign Minister Motegi expressed full support for the appointment of Brunei Second Foreign Minister Erywan Yusof as ASEAN special envoy to Myanmar to mediate between the military and pro-democracy protesters [see AiR No. 32, August/2021, 2]. Further, conveying concerns about the military's nullification of the country's November general election, the Japanese top diplomat called for a dialogue among all parties concerned and "expressed his strong expectations for a constructive response from Myanmar”. [Kyodo News 2]

India’s maritime diplomacy in full swing, as Navy participates in number of exercises with Gulf countries

(lm) In a sign of growing defense ties between the two countries, the Navies of India and Saudi Arabia started their first-ever joint exercise – Al-Mohed Al-Hindi 2021 – on August 9, which comprised several shore and sea-based exercises.

Prior to the exercise, the INS Kochi – a flagship destroyer for the Indian Western Naval Fleet –arrived in Saudi Arabia on August 7 after carrying out a similar naval exercise with the UAE Navy off the coast of Abu Dhabi. [Arab News] [The Indian Express]

On August 12, INS Shivalik, a multirole stealth frigate, and anti-submarine warfare corvette INS Kadmatt conducted a Passage Exercise (PASSEX) with the Royal Brunei Navy. The two ships had arrived in Muara on August 9. [Royal Brunei Navy]

Two days thereafter, the Indian Navy and Qatar Emiri Naval Force concluded the second edition of their joint naval exercise “Zair-Al-Bahr”, which comprised of a three-day harbor phase followed by a two-day sea phase. [India Today]

China to fund development projects in Myanmar

(mt/lm) China will transfer more than $6 million to Myanmar's military junta to fund development projects, in a sign of cooperation resuming under the military junta that overthrew the elected government earlier in February. [The Diplomat] [The Straits Times]

According to China’s official state-run press agency, Xinhua News Agency, the agreement was signed by Myanmar’s Foreign Minister Wunna Maung Lwin and Beijing’s Ambassador to Myanmar Chen Hai on August 9. The funds will finance 21 projects under China’s Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC) framework, an interstate cooperation initiative comprising of the six countries located along the Mekong River. [LMC China] [Xinhua News Agency]

Unlike Western countries that have condemned Myanmar’s military junta for cutting short democracy and the killing and imprisonment of its opponents, China has embraced a softer approach, with the opening of oil and gas pipelines that cross the country, in addition to plans for economic zones and a major port development.

Myanmar’s military junta earlier this month invited bids to provide legal services to two crucial infrastructure projects under the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), a 1,700-kilometer infrastructure route that promises to connect the Indian Ocean oil trade to China’s remote and underdeveloped Yunnan Province. [AiR No. 32, August/2021, 2]

The Chinese aid dispersal came just a day before the United States announced on August 10 it was giving Myanmar more than $50 million in aid to support relief groups dealing with a worsening humanitarian crisis in the Southeast Asian country. [U.S. Department of State]

Indo-Pacific forces from 21 partner nations kick off SEACAT

(lm) Maritime forces from Indo-Pacific partner nations on August 10 began the 20th iteration of the Southeast Asia Cooperation and Training (SEACAT) naval exercise in Singapore and virtually. [Al Jazeera] [NavyTimes]

Signifying the largest iteration to date, this year’s exercise involves ten ships and more than 400 personnel. 21 nations participate, including Australia, Bangladesh, Brunei, Canada, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Maldives, New Zealand, Philippines, South Korea, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Timor-Leste, United Kingdom, United States, and Vietnam.

This year’s also presents a new element by incorporating international organizations and nongovernmental organizations, whose objective is to create an even more realistic scenario to “enhance understanding and adherence to accepted rules, laws, and norms,” the US Navy said in a statement. Participants include United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime (UNODC), EU Critical Maritime Route Wider Indian Ocean (CRIMARIO), and International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). [Commander, U.S. Pacific Fleet]

The SEACAT exercises commenced just a day after more than 10,000 troops from China and Russia began a major exercise, West-Interaction 2021, in China’s Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. [AiR No. 32, August/2021, 2]

Last year, the event was conducted as part of a virtual symposium amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

North Korea to leave telephone unanswered

(nd) In what appeared to be a protest against the decision to hold joint US-South Korean drills last week, North Korea refused to answer South Korea’s phone calls through a pair of recently reconnected inter-Korean hotlines. Analysts refer to North Korea’s latest lashes against Washington and Seoul as the “old playbook” of threats and the prospect of talks to pressure their counterpart.

Although the reestablishment of a telephone connection between the two Koreas was seen as a big step forward, North Korean state media never published domestically an article referring to the hotline as “big stride” towards mutual trust, indicating the commitment was not fully. Rather, they were watching closely the decision on the annual joint drills, which have always been a point of tension. This year, President Moon is in his final year and under pressure for achieve his aims: Further his inter-Korean relationship and enable the transfer of wartime operational control of the South Korean military back from the US’ control, to which holding the joint drills are necessary.

With respect to the North’s reaction, experts said North Korea could soon test a submarine-launched ballistic missile, others say a less risky provocation, like dissolving North Korean government organizations tasked with inter-Korean cooperation, was more likely. North Korea itself is under pressure due to its dire economic situation and therefore in desperate need of sanction relief.

Technically, the two Koreas are at war, for a conflict between the two sides ended in 1953 with an armistice, not a peace treaty. After a failed peace summit, in 2020 North Korea cut the two hotlines, through which they used to communicate twice a day. Last month, the lines were restored. The annual joint exercises have been scaled back in recent year to give way for diplomatic negotiations on North Korea’s nuclear program. [Voice of America 1]  [Voice of America 2] [BBC]

Indonesia to apologize to Nigeria for incident with diplomat 

(nd) Following the mishandling of a Nigerian diplomat, Indonesia's Foreign Ministry apologised last week and announced to launch a formal investigation. Nigeria recalled its ambassador to Indonesia and summoned Indonesia's ambassador after a video on social media showed three Indonesian immigration officials pinning the diplomat into the back seat of a moving vehicle, while the diplomat screams “I can't breathe” and “my neck, my neck". The Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs commented to regret the incident, which it emphasized was in no way related to the commitment of the Indonesian government “as host country or in accordance with the Vienna convention on diplomatic relations.”

According to Indonesian authorities, immigration officers went to the diplomat’s apartment building after receiving a tip about expired residence permits by a group of foreign nationals. He was uncooperative and refused to hand over his documents. According to the immigration officials, he attacked them in the car and was therefore held down. He produces his documents only while he was questioned at the local immigration office. [Channel News Asia] [BBC] [Voice of America]

South Korea, US on trade and multilateralism 

(aml) On Friday, newly appointed trade minister Yeo Han-koo and his US counterpart Katherine Tai held a virtual meeting and agreed on joining forces in reinforcing multilateralism and resolving other pending global trade issues. The two promised to restore the multilateral trade regime by normalizing the function of the WTO, that had been disturbed by growing protectionism and especially after the Trump administration had failed to name new members to the appellate body for the dispute-settlement function. They also agreed to work closely on climate change and digital trade and plan to hold a face-to-face trade meeting soon. [Korea Herald]

South Korea: Kazakh president to visit

(aml) On Monday, Kazakh president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev arrived in South Korea for a two-day stay that includes summit talks with South Korean president Moon Jae-in. Tokayev is the first Kazakh president to visit South Korea in five years and he and Moon plan on discussing ways to further a substantive cooperation in transportation, infrastructure, constructions, ICT, health care and environment. [Korea Herald] [Yonhap]

In the course of the visit, the remains of Korean independence fighter Hong Beom-do were returned from Kazakhstan, 78 years after his death in 1943 in the Central Asian nation. Hong served as the general commander of the Korean independence army and is a historic figure in the nation’s fight for liberation. On Saturday, Moon welcomed the special delegation that brought the remains home and observed the ceremony, stating “it represents a very meaningful return for us”. [Korea Times 1] [Korea Times 2]

India, Nepal hold 9th round of joint Oversight Mechanism meeting

(lm) The Ninth Meeting of Nepal-India Oversight Mechanism was held in Kathmandu on August 16 under the co-chairmanship of Nepal’s foreign secretary and India’s ambassador to Nepal. The meeting reviewed the progress of the projects being implemented under bilateral economic and development cooperation. [Government of Nepal]

The Mechanism was set up in September 2016 to oversee the implementation of bilateral projects and take necessary steps for their completion in time. At the time, several areas of mutual interest were identified ranging from hydropower, rail and road connectivity, petroleum products pipeline, to multipurpose projects and agriculture.

Taiwan plans to join US summit for democracy

(nd) The Taiwanese Foreign Ministry announced its plan to attend the "Summit for Democracy” announced by US president Joe Biden. The summit shall bring together virtually leaders of the world's democracies by early December. Topics will be the defence against authoritarianism, fight against corruption and the promotion of respect for human rights.

[Nikkei Asia] The list of invitees has not been released yet, but US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has pledged he would invite Taiwan to participate, emphasizing its strong democratic system, and its status as technology hub. [Taiwan News]

Announcements

Upcoming Online Events 

18 August 2021 03:00 p.m. (GMT +2), Centre for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi

Military Applications of 5G

This webinar will host a variety of speakers to discuss the military application of 5G.

Please see [CLAWS] for more information. 

19 August 2021 @ 08:30 a.m. (GMT +2), Center for New American Security, Wahington D.C.

Against the clock: Saving America’s Afghan Partners

This online event will host a timely discussion on the status of U.S. efforts to relocate Afghan visa applicants, lessons learned from similar evacuations in the past, and what must be done next after the departure of U.S. forces from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s rapid military gains. 

For more Information, please see [CNAS].

19 August 2021 @ 02:00 p.m. (GMT +2), Berggruen Institute, Los Angeles

Global Thinkers Series: In Conversation with Wang Gungwu: Understanding the Sinic Civilization in World History

I this online event, Professor Wang Gungwu will present his theory on the Eurasian Core and his insights on the rise and fall of continental and maritime powers in the past several millennia hold tremendous explanatory power for understanding the evolution and dynamic forces which have shaped and given character to the Chinese and Western civilizations. The event will focus on the questions how we can define “civilization”, what is the Eurasian core, how emigrants shaped the patterns of expansion of Chinese civilization and how the civilizations have nurtured each other. 

For more information, please see [Berggruen].

19 August 2021 @ 00:00 a.m. (GMT +2), Sasakawa Peace Foundation, Tokyo

Anti-Asian American Hate Crimes and U.S. Society

In this webinar three experts from both Japan and the U.S. will discuss the origins and historical backgrounds of the U.S. as an immigrant nation and multi-ethnic society, and the current situation of hate crimes in the U.S. having the complex issues of the society in the backgrounds.

For more information, please see [SPF].

19 August 2021 @ 12:00-12:45 p.m. (GMT-4), The Heritage Foundation, USA

Do We Really Need a President?

Should twenty-first-century presidents be “the most powerful person in the world?” How should the next generation hold the office accountable? 

This webinar will tackle these questions along with an expert panel, continuing the healthy debate on the role and scope of the presidency.

For further information, see [Heritage].

19 August 2021 @ 3:00-4:00 p.m. (GMT-4), Center for Strategic & International Studies, USA

The Deeper Consequences of the War on Terror

This event will discuss how the war on terror may have resulted in unseen effects on democratic norms, and how those democratic norms have evolved over time

Visit [CSIS ] to learn more about the event.

19 August 2021 @ 5:00-6:15 p.m. (GMT+2), The South African Institute of International Affairs, South Africa

Africa’s Traditional Kingdoms: What role today?

This event is based on a study of the status of traditional kingdoms in Africa under modern constitutions and their role in holding the centre to account. 

Find out more at [SAIIA].

19 August 2021 @ 6:00-7:30 p.m. (GMT+10), Australian Institute of International Affairs, Australia

An Enduring Contribution? Australia on the United Nations Security Council

This online event is a discussion with Michael Bliss to celebrate the launch of his recent book “An Enduring Contribution? Australia’s Term on the United Nations Security Council (2013 – 2014)”.

For more information on the book discussion, please visit [AIIA].

19 August 2021 @ 5:00-6:30 a.m. (GMT-7), Berggruen Institute, USA

Global Thinkers Series: In Conversation with Wang Gungwu: Understanding the Sinic Civilization in World History

This webinar will provide Professor Wang Gungwu’s theory on the Eurasian Core and his insights on the rise and fall of continental and maritime powers in the past several millennia hold tremendous explanatory power for understanding the evolution and dynamic forces which have shaped and given character to the Chinese and Western civilizations. 

For further event information, see [Berggruen].

19 August 2021 @ 7:30-9:00 p.m. (GMT+8), Institute of Policy Studies, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, Singapore

IPS Corporate Associates Dinner with Mr Albert Chua

This webinar will discuss the intersection between economy and environment, and the role that organisations can play in safeguarding Singapore’s future.

If you are interested in joining, please see [IPS].

19 August 2021 @ 12:00-12:45 p.m. (GMT-7), Pacific Council on International Policy, USA

Congresswoman Barbara Lee: Speaking Truth to Power 

A conversation with the Honorable Barbara Lee, Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from California and Ms. Abby Ginzberg, Documentary Filmmaker, as part of the Pacific Council x World Affairs Global Leaders Series.  

If you are interested in this event, please see [Pacific Council] for more information and registration. 

20 August 2021 @ 10:00-11:30 1.m. (GMT+8), ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore

China’s Vaccine Diplomacy in Malaysia: Problems and Prospects

This webinar seeks to throw some light on such problems and prospects of China’s vaccine diplomacy in Malaysia and how despite setbacks, China’s vaccine diplomacy may have two redeeming features. 

If you are interested in joining, you can register at [ISEAS].

20 August 2021 @ 10:30 a.m. - 12:00 p.m. (GMT+8), S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore

Security Studies Versus Strategic Studies: Relevance in the 21st Century

This debate, between two thought leaders from the two subjects, seeks to examine the following question: which subject provides policy makers and strategic planners with the better intellectual tools with which to comprehend, and subsequently address, the 21st Century security challenges facing states like Singapore.

More event details are provided at [RSIS].

20 August 2021 @ 3:30-5:00 p.m. (GMT+8), East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore 

Impacts of a minimum subsistence allowance programme on incentives to work in China

In this seminar, the speaker re-examines this contradiction between theory and practice by evaluating one of the largest cash transfer programmes in the world – China’s minimum subsistence allowance programme (Dibao). 

For more information, please see [EAI].

20 August 2021 @ 09:30 a.m. (GMT +2), National University of Singapore, Singapore

Impacts of a minimum subsistence allowance programme on incentives to work in China

This webinar will deal with the longstanding theoretical prediction of cash transfer programmes is that they would disincentivise labour supply. However, empirical evidence from actual programmes is often mixed, and when impacts are found, they are often smaller than theoretical predictions. The speaker will re-examine this contradiction between theory and practice by evaluating one of the largest cash transfer programmes in the world – China’s minimum subsistence allowance programme (Dibao).

For more information, please see [NUS].

23 August 2021 @ 09:00 a.m. (GMT +2), Center for South Asian Studies University of Michigan, Michigan

The MIRS Advantage – Masters in International and Regional Studies

This webinar informs about the Masters in International and Regional Studies Program, which combines three experts from both Japan and the U.S. will discuss the origins and historical backgrounds of the U.S. as an immigrant nation and multi-ethnic society, and the current situation of hate crimes in the U.S. having the complex issues of the society in the backgrounds. The webinar will present on topics related to the program structure, admissions requirements, funding and financial aid, specialization tracks, and dual-degree opportunities for students interested in applying for the Fall 2022 term.

For more information, please see [University of Michigan].

23 August 2021 @ 10:30 a.m. - 12:00 p.m. (GMT-4), Middle East Institute, USA

Afghanistan’s Collapse & the Implications for Global Jihadism and Counterterrorism

In this event, experts will discuss the evolving situation in Afghanistan and how it is likely to impact terrorism, both within the country and beyond. 

More information about the event is provided at [MEI].

23 August 2021 @ 10:00-11:15 p.m. (GMT+8), ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore

A New Battle is Coming in Thailand: Can Prayut Hold onto the Premiership?

This webinar will examine these developments and the policies that the PPRP has developed in an effort to ensure its victory in Thailand’s next national elections — including vaccination for COVID-19, the adoption of a new electoral system, and a slate of populist measures to be implemented before Thais head to the polls. 

If you want to know more about the event, go to [ISEAS]. 

24 August 2021 @ 3:00-4:30 p.m. (GMT+8), ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore

Nikkei – ISEAS Forum Part 1: Exploring Digital Trade and Initiatives in Southeast Asia

This webinar will examine digital trade by exploring the conceptual framework for measuring digital trade and characterizing the impact of digital technologies on cross-border trade. 

For more information on the webinar series, click [ISEAS].

24 August 2021 @ 11:00 a.m. - 12:30 p.m. (GMT-4), Middle East Institute, USA

Syria and the West: The Efficacy of Economic Sanctions

This seminar will discuss the utility and impact of sanctions against the Syrian regime.

More information is accessible via [MEI].

24 August 2021 @ 3:00-4:00 p.m. (GMT-4), Foreign Policy Research Institute, USA

Irregular Soldiers and Rebellious States

In this online event, speakers will discuss how U.S. advisors and forces will still operate on a small-scale basis either by working with a foreign government to help defend it from threats of subversion and insurgency or by assisting insurgents and guerrilla forces in countering a hostile regime.

Please see [FPRI] for more information.

24 August 2021 @ 3:00-5:00 p.m. (GMT+9), Asian Development Bank Institute, Japan

Virtual Policy Dialogue on Rethinking the Role of Cities and Urban Function

This virtual policy dialogue will focus on urban development and function in Asia in the post-COVID-19 era. It will feature remarks from urban development expert Tsuyoshi Hashimoto, who will describe keys to building equitable, accommodating, and resilient post-COVID-19 cities. It will set the stage for a panel discussion on related development models for the region.

If you want to attend the event, find out how to register at [ADB].

24 August 2021 @ 10:00-11:00 a.m. (GMT-4), The Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program, USA

How veterans can protect American democracy

This online discussion is about the state of American democracy and the role veterans can play to protect American democracy.   

Further event details are available at [Brookings].

24 August 2021 @ 6:00-7:00 p.m. (GMT+10), Australian Institute of International Affairs, Australia

The Quest for Peace in a World in Flames

This talk identifies conditions of world peace, how they are shaping contemporary world politics, and what can be done about it. 

If you want to attend the event, find out how to register at [AIIA].

24 August 2021 @ 6:30-7:30 p.m. (GMT+10), Australian Institute of International Affairs, Australia

China in 2021: key issues and their significance for Australia

This webinar will highlight key issues of China in 2021 and their significance for Australia

For more information, please visit  [AIIA].

25 August 2021 @ 02:30 p.m. (GMT +2), Centre for International Governance Innovation, Waterloo

Canada and the Digitalization of Money

This online event will deal with the respective roles of the public and private sectors, how the design and implementation of a central bank digital currency could drive and accelerate the policy and business response to other elements of digitalization (e.g., payments system modernization) as building blocks of a sound and competitive financial system; and the governance necessary to establish and implement an integrated agenda for Canada.

Please see [CIGI] for more information. 

25 August 2021 @ 10:00-11:15 a.m. (GMT+8), ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore

Malaysian Political Dynamics: The Making and Remaking of Political Alignments and Social Cohesion

At the webinar, the speaker will discuss these developments, comparing the fissures and alignments within the Malaysian body politic with previous episodes in Malaysia’s history, and drawing out the distinctive features of the present in light of the past. 

More event details are provided at [ISEAS].

25 August 2021 @ 6:00-7:00 p.m. (GMT+10), Strategic Policy Studies at the Strategic & Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University, Australia

Not your parents' Cold War: Why this time is different... and more dangerous

This lecture will offer a different view of the similarities and differences which suggest that optimism about this new Cold War is misplaced.

For more information, please see [SDSC].

25 August 2021 @ 2:50-6:30 p.m. (GMT+9), Asian Development Bank Institute, Japan

ADBI Annual Forum on Expanding Women’s Participation in the Asian Economy: Securing Livelihoods for an Inclusive Recovery

This online seminar will present research on women in the Asian economy, recent household data on the effects of COVID-19 on women, and prospects for addressing employment disruptions. Moreover, it will discuss barriers to women-owned businesses in the COVID-19 era and the importance of enhancing women’s participation in the online marketplace for a gender-balanced recovery.

More information about the event is provided at [ADB].

25 August 2021 @ 9:00-10:30 a.m. (GMT-4), Atlantic Council, USA

Bloody fatwa: Iran’s new president and the 1988 prison massacre

Join a discussion with a distinguished panel of speakers with firsthand expertise and knowledge of the legal, historical, and political ramifications of the events of July 1988.

If you want to know more about the event, go to [Atlantic Council].

25-27 August 2021 @ 2:50-6:30 p.m. (GMT+9), Asian Development Bank Institute, Japan

ADBI Virtual Workshop on Effective Greenhouse Gas Emission Control Policies

This ADBI virtual workshop will present new research and country-level case studies on the effectiveness of policies to reduce fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in Asia and the Pacific. It will also examine ways to improve the design and implementation of such measures in the region’s developing economies.

Visit [ADB] to find out more about the event.

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