No Images? Click here
3 JULY
Tanks roll out for Trump's July 4th
President Trump has asked the Pentagon to marshal a broadening array of military hardware, including tanks and fighter jets, to showcase his planned Fourth of July address to the nation in Washington, DC this week. Trump has wanted a military parade of tanks and other equipment after he witnessed a similar parade on Bastille Day in Paris in 2017.
The small number of M1 Abrams tanks and other armoured vehicles likely to take part on Thursday will not parade down Pennsylvania Avenue, however, due to the need to protect roads and bridges. "I'm going to be here and I'm going to say a few words and we're going to have planes going overhead, the best fighter jets in the world and other planes too and we're gonna have some tanks stationed outside," Trump said Monday.
The use of massive military hardware for Thursday’s celebration sparked sharp criticism from DC officials, Democratic lawmakers and advocates of the Park Service, who noted the agency already faces a maintenance backlog of more than US$11 billion.
NEWS WRAP
Democrats debate their future
The first Democratic presidential debates took place in Miami, Florida last week, with immigration, healthcare and race dominating discussions among the 20 candidates. Who came out on top and who suffered some serious body blows to their campaign? Senior Lecturer in American politics David Smith joined the 2020Vision podcast to share his thoughts on their performances and discuss some of the big surprises. LISTEN HERE.
- With two dozen candidates still in the race for the Democratic nomination, are we any closer to learning who has a chance at beating Trump in 2020? Associate Professor in American politics Brendon O'Connor and research assistant Dan Dixon looked at the crowded field and their electoral chances for The Conversation. READ MORE HERE.
- World leaders gathered in Japan for the G20 summit last week, with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison dining with the US president and some of his most trusted advisers for a discussion about America's ongoing trade war with China. Charles Edel, senior fellow at the USSC, was interviewed by Fran Kelly on RN Breakfast about the meeting. LISTEN HERE.
- Australia will be forced to wait and see what Trump includes on his China trade shopping list before assessing the potential damage from Beijing's agreement to buy a "tremendous amount" of American agricultural products. Stephen Kirchner, director of the USSC's Trade and Investment Program told The Australian Financial Review that the Trump administration's push for market access would lead to market diversion, rather than changing economic fundamentals. READ MORE HERE.
- Iran-US tensions expose the risks of Australia's short-term thinking, according to Alliance 21 Fellow Bryden Spurling. Writing for the ABC this week, he warns the government shouldn't need another reminder of the danger of being dependent on energy from a region so volatile as the Middle East. READ MORE HERE.
The US Census Bureau will not include a question about citizenship in the printed questionnaire for the 2020 census, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross confirmed Tuesday. The decision represents a major defeat for the Trump administration five days after the Supreme Court refused to allow the question to be added without further explanation from Census officials. READ MORE HERE.
Defendants have now—for what the Committee believes is the first time ever— denied a Section 6103(f) request in order to shield President Trump’s tax return information from Congressional scrutiny. In refusing to comply with the statute, Defendants have mounted an extraordinary attack on the authority of Congress to obtain information needed to conduct oversight of Treasury, the IRS, and the tax laws on behalf of the American people who participate in the Nation’s voluntary tax system.
A section of the legal
complaint filed by the Democratic-led House Ways and Means Committee, which is seeking access to President Trump’s tax returns.
2 July 2019
ANALYSIS
Democrats test the climate
Dr Jim Orchard
Energy analyst
Come what may, the next Democratic presidential contender will be committed to a sharp reduction in carbon emissions. While this is encouraging for climate advocates, the recent televised debates spent just 15 of 240 minutes of airtime on the subject.
With most candidates trying to differentiate themselves by focusing on a signature issue or two, the climate discussion comprised more motherhood statements than clear policy objectives. The exception was Washington Governor Jay Inslee who has an established record as a climate champion with a developed set of policies. Inslee is an unlikely nominee, so what elements of climate and energy policy are likely to separate the candidates once they get deeper into the primaries?
Support for the Paris Accord is a given but it means accepting that the United States needs to achieve net zero CO2 emissions somewhere between 2050 and 2075. Progressive candidates such as Warren and Sanders will likely opt for the 2050 target. Former Vice President Joe Biden did the same with his recent US$1.7 trillion climate plan. Candidates wanting to take a centrist position could adopt a 2075 schedule citing concern for jobs and the economy.
Support for the Green New Deal (GND) will be important – the GND endorses the 2050 target and includes ambitious social policies such as guaranteed employment, housing and healthcare. The GND has split the union movement and it is likely to do the same for the candidate pool. Hickenlooper, a supporter of regulated fracking in Colorado, has already come out against it.
The GND has many nominal supporters including congressional cosponsors Harris, Warren, Booker, Gillibrand, Klobuchar and Sanders but this grouping could easily split into those who regard the goals as aspirational versus those who regard them as more concrete.
One question that marries the climate and generational debates in the nomination race is: who will GND co-author Alexandria Ocasio Cortez endorse? Her endorsement could give a climate-friendly Democrat the star-power to win over the party in the primaries but could also open them up to attacks down the line from Republican groups in the presidential campaign.
In future campaigning, candidates will seek to find a climate angle for their signature topics – an easier task for some candidates than others. Senators Sanders and Warren, both strong on reducing the influence of big business, will likely create a climate narrative around stopping fossil fuel corporations from using money and influence to block emission reductions. Similarly, Rep. Tim Ryan’s goal to revitalise US industry works well with investment in energy transformation.
Questions on the funding for emission reductions and how any proposals will get through Congress are going to be tough to answer. A tax on carbon has been liberal orthodoxy and has support among the candidates. Sen. Booker proposes that carbon tax revenue is returned as a “progressive dividend” in line with his environmental justice goals. There is, however, an emerging view that other funding schemes will be necessary. Inslee could not get a carbon tax passed in liberal Washington and has now shifted his position. This discussion may sort out those touting standard orthodoxy from those with fresh ideas.
As the primary campaign rolls on, expect more questions on emissions reduction timetables, costings and funding schemes as well as providing support for communities impacted by climate change and an exit from fossil fuels.
There is broad consensus in the party on climate change as an issue but the intense spotlight of the next few months of campaigning will start to lay bare the fundamental differences between those vying to wrest the White House from its current climate sceptic resident in chief.
DIARY
The week ahead
3-4 July: Australian Parliament sitting.
Thursday, 4 July: President Trump is scheduled to deliver Independence Day remarks at the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, DC.
Tuesday, 9 July: US Senate Armed Services Committee hearings to examine implementation of the National Defense Strategy in the US Southern Command area of responsibility.
VIDEO
President Trump's historic meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in the DMZ
THE WEEK IN TWEETS
#DemsAtTheBorder
Manage your email preferences | Forward this email to a friend
United States Studies Centre
Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006
