NEWS WRAP

Senate Democratic hopefuls forced off the campaign trail 

• The impeachment trial has one undesirable cost for the Democrats as four contenders' campaigns for the party's presidential nomination have been essentially grounded by their Senate obligations. Senators Bennet, Klobuchar, Sanders and Warren will have to sit in the Senate chambers during most of the proceedings without access to their electronic devices. The four candidates will rely on charter flights and surrogates in the lead up to the crucial Iowa caucuses on February 3. Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe spoke to ABC News about how the Senate trial will work. READ MORE HERE
   

• Martin Luther King Jr Day led to a stay in the simmering tension between Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Democratic presidential hopefuls, including Sanders and Warren, linked arms during a march in South Carolina commemorating the progress made by black Americans while also acknowledging the persistence of racial inequality in America. The march follows a tense debate in Iowa last week where the senators accused each other of lying about a 2018 meeting during which it is alleged Sanders said a woman couldn't beat Donald Trump. Non-resident Fellow James Brown spoke to Sky News about the division in the Democratic Party. WATCH HERE
   

• The 2018 hacking of Amazon founder and CEO Jeff Bezos’ phone, which lead to the revelation his extramarital affair and then his divorce, reportedly occurred after he received a WhatsApp message from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The Guardian reported that the message itself contained malware. Bezos is also the owner of The Washington Post, the publication that employed columnist Jamal Khashoggi and fiercely criticised the Saudi government after the columnist’s murder in a Saudi consulate in 2018. READ MORE HERE
   

• More than 20,000 gun-rights activists flocked to the Virginia State Capitol Monday to protest the state’s Democratic governor’s pledge to enact stricter gun laws passed by the state legislature. The event attracted attendees from across the country and even garnered support from President Trump. Protesters were angered by proposed legislation that would impose universal background checks, limit the purchase of handguns and allow localities to ban firearms in public spaces. READ MORE HERE
   

• The sexual assault trial of Hollywood producer Harvey Weinstein is set to begin Wednesday after a protracted jury selection process. A third of the potential jurors were eliminated for openly admitting their inability to be impartial. Despite complaints on both sides, a jury of seven men and five women has now been selected to move forward with the trial. Weinstein's defence attorneys have openly flagged a strategy where they will seek to destroy the credibility of his accusers and secure his acquittal. READ MORE HERE

ANALYSIS

Impeachment and the split-screen presidency​

Bruce Wolpe
Non-resident senior fellow

Get ready for the split-screen presidency: televised proceedings in Congress to remove Trump from office occurring with near-simultaneous video of Trump exercising the powers of the presidency.

The first hint of what is to come was on December 18, when the vote in the House of Representatives to impeach Trump for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress was concluded just as Trump took the stage in Michigan to rally his base and denounce the radical conspiracy, the hoax, the witch hunt, that was reaching a new zenith under the Capitol dome that night.

President Trump is now in Davos, Switzerland for the World Economic Forum, meeting with the most powerful world leaders, corporate titans, and civil society guardians – while the Senate is hearing opening arguments from the House prosecutors.

This playing field is larger than the Senate floor and wherever Trump is. As Democratic candidates debated in Iowa last week, Trump was on stage at a political rally in Wisconsin.

This is his nature. President Trump does not believe in defence; he knows only offence. The level of presidential hyperactivity will go up until the trial is concluded. On January 28, Trump is holding a rally in New Jersey, in the district of the congressman who defected from the Democrats and became a Republican just before the House impeachment votes. On January 28, five days before Iowa, Trump will hold a rally in the state just to send a message to the Iowans who voted their state for Trump in 2016, and to reinforce the China trade deal benefits of the new wave of agriculture sales to China awaiting them.

For the Democrats running for their party’s nomination, there will be near-constant noise to compete with. It is likely the Senate impeachment trial will still be underway February 3, when Iowa Democrats will send their smoke signal from their caucuses as to who they believe should be entrusted with the Democratic nomination to defeat Trump in November.

The next day, February 4, Trump is to deliver the State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who drove his impeachment, sitting behind Trump’s left shoulder. Vice President Mike Pence, who assumes the presidency if Trump is convicted and removed from office, will sit behind Trump’s right shoulder. And the 100 senators sitting in judgment of the man addressing them, together with the Supreme Court Chief Justice, will be arrayed before Trump on the House chamber floor.

And on February 11, the Democrats of New Hampshire will hold their presidential primary, with a most significant political moment in their hands: if the winner of Iowa also wins New Hampshire, that person will more likely than not be the Democratic nominee.

We have seen emanations of this split-screen presidency before: when President Trump attacked via Twitter witnesses in the House impeachment hearings as they were testifying, and when he commented in real-time on the debate unfolding on the House floor before the votes to impeach.

Trump will use the split-screen presidency to counter, if not nullify, the hard narrative of presidential abuse of power and contempt for norms of governance that will echo throughout the Senate chamber, and onto screens around the world.

This is not the new normal in American politics, because impeachment is abnormal. But this is how we will absorb and ultimately comprehend the astonishing things we will witness – and make judgments about them, and the future course of America’s Republic, if Americans can keep it.

EVENT

2020 Vision: What to expect from the United States this year

One year from this month, a newly elected president will take office in Washington, DC. The long and intense competition leading to that day begins on 3 February 2020, with the Iowa Caucuses, the first nominating contest in the Democratic Party’s primaries for the 2020 presidential election.

What are Trump’s chances of re-election? Which Democratic challenger is likely to be Trump’s opponent in November? What impact will renewed tensions in the Middle East have on the election, and what are the implications for Australia? And what will be the trajectory of rivalry between China and the United States in this election year?

To hear more on these issues, please join us for the first in a series of public events on the 2020 US presidential election by the US Studies Centre.

The panel will feature analysis by USSC experts:

• Simon Jackman, CEO and Professor of Political Science
• Kim Hoggard, Non-Resident Fellow and former staffer for President Ronald Reagan and President George H.W. Bush 
• Brendon O’Connor, Associate Professor in American Politics and author of Anti-Americanism and American Exceptionalism
• Ashley Townshend, Director of Foreign Policy and Defence at the United States Studies Centre 

DATE & TIME
30 January 2020
6.00pm–8.00pm

LOCATION
Harbourside Room,
Level 6, Museum of Contemporary Art,
The Rocks

COST
$25 General Admission

VIDEO

New York Times editorial board breaks with convention and endorses two candidates​

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

#ClintonSanders2016