22 AUGUST

Cohen implicates Trump, Manafort convicted

President Donald Trump's former personal attorney, Michael Cohen, pleaded guilty to eight criminal counts in a Manhattan federal court Tuesday. Cohen admitted that "in coordination and at the direction of a candidate of federal office" he acted to keep information that would be harmful to the candidate and the campaign from becoming public during the 2016 presidential election.

Cohen said he arranged payments to two women at Trump's behest to secure their silence about affairs they said they had with him. He also pleaded guilty to multiple counts of tax evasion and bank fraud. Trump counsel Rudy Giuliani said in a statement that "there is no allegation of any wrongdoing against the president in the government’s charges against Mr Cohen... Mr Cohen’s actions reflect a pattern of lies and dishonesty over a significant period of time.”

The plea came shortly before another blow to the president, with his former campaign manager, Paul Manafort, convicted of eight of the 18 charges in his financial fraud trial in Virginia. Special Counsel Robert Mueller had built a case that Manafort hid millions of dollars in foreign accounts to evade taxes and lied to banks to obtain US$20 million in loans.

NEWS WRAP

Polls and polarisation on immigration

Republicans and Democrats are more polarised on immigration than parties in the United Kingdom or Australia, according to new polling commissioned by the USSC. Political science lecturer Shaun Ratcliff provided his analysis of the polling results for The Washington Post last week. He points to both Trump’s embrace of anti-immigration policies – which has prompted Democratic voters to move left on the issue – and the differences in the three countries’ party systems to help explain the polarisation. READ MORE HERE.
Australia’s high turnover in prime ministers and US political battles over the budget and debt ceiling have resulted in episodes of increased economic policy uncertainty. New research by Stephen Kirchner released by the USSC this week measures the impact of that uncertainty on international trade and investment, with a particular focus on Australia and the United States. READ MORE HERE.
The erosion of US federal climate policy has made action from individual states far more important. As Australia grapples with yet another failure to implement a national emissions policy, what can we learn from the United States? Honorary associate Sarah Graham took a look for The Conversation, based on her USSC research brief earlier this month. READ MORE HERE.
"Revoke my security clearance, too, Mr President." That's the request from Retired Navy Admiral William H. McRaven who oversaw the 2011 Navy SEAL raid that killed Osama bin Laden. He wrote an op-ed for the Washington Post on Thursday calling former CIA director John Brennan – whose security clearance Trump announced he was revoking last week – "one of the finest public servants" he knows. McRaven directly warned President Trump: "If you think for a moment that your McCarthy-era tactics will suppress the voices of criticism, you are sadly mistaken." READ MORE HERE.
Washington has long considered Cambodia a strategic lost cause. Yet the country’s Chinese turn should serve as a warning of what China’s growing economic presence, especially in authoritarian countries, will mean for Southeast Asia and Eurasia more broadly, writes senior fellow Charles Edel in Foreign Affairs. READ MORE HERE.
More than 400 US news organisations have taken action to educate the public on the importance of free media, publishing editorials on the subject across the country at a time when critics of the press and President Trump are labelling the media an 'enemy of the people'. CEO Simon Jackman spoke to the ABC's AM program about the move. L ISTEN HERE.

Truth isn't truth.

President Trump's lawyer Rudy Giuliani on the Russia probe
Meet the Press
19 August 2018

ANALYSIS

Tackling incarceration rates in Australia and the United States

Kimberly Monarrez
Research intern

The United States tops the worldwide rank of incarceration. Its criminal justice system holds approximately 0.65 per cent of the US population in state and federal prisons, juvenile correctional facilities and local jails. Even China, which has a population more than four times larger than the United States, has nearly half a million fewer people in jail, with an incarceration rate of only 0.12 per cent

While Australia’s incarcerated population is significantly smaller than that of the United States, its incarceration rate — currently at 0.17 per cent — remains 18 per cent higher than the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development average.

Contributing to the incarceration rates in Australia and the United States is the persistent challenge of recidivism. Almost half of US federal offenders released in 2005 were arrested again by 2013. In Australia, a total of 44.8 per cent of prisoners released in 2014-2015 returned to corrective services within two years. In comparison, fellow OECD countries Norway and Denmark have overall recidivism rates of, respectively, 20 per cent and 24 per cent within a two-year period. The high level of recidivism in both the United States and Australia suggests a failure in the criminal justice systems to improve the behaviour of those who enter them.

In the United States, White House adviser Jared Kushner is pushing a bill aiming to establish training programs, expand access to education and vocational training, and allow “well-behaved” offenders to serve out their final sentenced years in rehabilitation centres. This is a departure from current practices as it would allow USD$50 million of annual funding for prison programming and change the way good-behaviour sentencing is calculated, resulting in the release of 4,000 inmates. Studies show academic and vocational programs reduce recidivism by 40 per cent and better prepare inmates for integration into society. Studies have also shown that employment after release is 13 per cent higher for inmates who participated in academic and vocational programs than those who did not, with those who participated being 28 per cent more likely to be employed after release over those who did not.

While this initiative is a step towards reform, rehabilitation programs that address underlying emotional factors for all inmates — instead of only the “well-behaved” — have not been considered. Research shows a significant reduction in reoffending if an inmate undertakes a relevant treatment program (i.e. anger management). Prison SMART, a behavioural and counselling rehabilitation program run by a US non-profit organisation, is one such program that could have a positive impact if it were available to all inmates. SMART has assisted 700,000 inmates across 60 countries, resulting in 71 per cent of offenders reporting that they could better control their temper, 62 per cent of offenders saying they were less easily irritated, and 79 per cent feeling more able to cope with challenges.

In Australia, the government’s anti-recidivism efforts have routinely focused on correctional rehabilitation, including programs that tackle motivation, cognitive abilities, sexual offences, and violence. While such programs are effective in addressing many of the offenders’ core challenges, they lack in an area the United States shows a strength. An Australian government 2015 report found that work opportunities for former prisoners had declined by 10 per cent since 2011, despite the increased population of those incarcerated and the fact that there is a correlation between employment and a reduced chance of reoffending. Unfortunately, efforts to address this challenge appear at a standstill as Australian Parliament has not proposed any substantial judicial reforms since 2015.

There are lessons to be learned from both jurisdictions. The United States could consider implementing more behavioural and counselling programs for all inmates, while Australia could revisit reforms that would introduce more educational and vocational programs within its system. Both nations face an opportunity to address the current missteps and pursue policies that will advance effective and efficient criminal justice systems.

DIARY

The week ahead

Wednesday, 22 August: President Trump will bestow the Medal of Honor to an Air Force sergeant credited with saving the lives of service members on a mountain in Afghanistan in 2002.
Thursday, 23 August: Vice President Mike Pence will visit the Johnson Space Center in Houston to discuss the future of human space exploration.
Thursday, 23 August: Last sitting day of Australian Parliament until September 10.
Friday, 24 August: President Trump is scheduled to attend a fundraiser and speak at a political dinner in Columbus, Ohio.

EVENT

After AUSMIN: Foreign Minister Julie Bishop on future Indo-Pacific strategy

July's AUSMIN meeting in California saw a renewed US commitment to the Indo-Pacific and was followed by an infrastructure investment announcement in the region. What will be Australia's role in these initiatives? How do they complement Australia's own regional strategy? Specifically, how will US and Australian policies help ensure Australia and the region remain prosperous and secure?

The United States Studies Centre will host an address by the Minister for Foreign Affairs Julie Bishop. Minister Bishop will speak to the challenges and opportunities Australia faces in our region, its future Indo-Pacific strategy, and the role of the US-Australia relationship in addressing those challenges.

She will be joined in conversation after the address by the United States Studies Centre's CEO, Professor Simon Jackman.

DATE & TIME
Wednesday, 29 August 2018
5.15pm–7pm

LOCATION
Level 6, Museum of Contemporary Art, 140 George Street, The Rocks.

COST
$25-50

Register