The latest USC Dornsife/LA Times poll, overseen by the new Center for the Political Future at USC Dornsife, finds that Democrats have an edge over Republicans in a generic House matchup in the runup to the midterm elections. Democrats also say news coverage of President Trump motivates them to vote. 

Contact: Emily Gersema, (213) 361-6730 or gersema@usc.edu; or Eddie North-Hager (213) 740-9335 or edwardnh@usc.edu

A national USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll finds voters are more likely to back Democrats in their district’s election for the U.S. House of Representatives, giving Democrats an 8-percentage point advantage over Republicans.

The most likely voters nationwide say news about President Donald Trump from their favorite or trusted news sources motivates them to participate in the midterm elections. Likely Democratic voters were 12 percentage points more likely than Republican voters to report feeling motivated by the news.

When hearing news from sources that they distrust, Democratic voters are 9 points more likely than Republicans to be motivated to vote.

Roughly 30 percent overall said such coverage has no bearing on their intention to vote.

The probability-based online poll, conducted from July 16-Aug. 16, asked voters which of these news sources, in random order, they trust: Fox News, MSNBC, CNN, national newspapers such as The New York Times, Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal, as well as local and regional newspapers, National Public Radio, public television (PBS), Trump and his administration and their congressional representative. It also checked the voters’ likelihood of casting a ballot for a U.S. House race in November.

The USC Dornsife/LA Times poll is a collaboration among researchers at two centers in the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences — the Center for Economic and Social Research (CESR), the new Center for the Political Future and the Center for Economic and Social Research — and The Los Angeles Times.

This nationally representative survey of 5,044 adult residents of the United States included 2,459 likely midterm voters and had a sampling error of +/- 2 percentage points for all respondents and for likely voters. For likely Democrat voters, it is +/-3 and for likely Republican voters it is +/-4.  (A full report on the poll, which is part of the Understanding America Study at CESR, is available here.)

[Photo of President Trump by Carolyn Kaster, AP]

Nineteen percent of the public nationwide considers Trump as a source of unbiased and trustworthy information, the poll shows. Half of the people who trust Fox News also trust the president as an unbiased source. Sixty-two percent of those who trust Trump also trust Fox News. 

Trump is trusted by just over half of likely Republican midterm voters (55 percent), and only 2 percent of Democratic voters.

About 19 percent of the public say they trust their local congressional representative. Around a quarter trust Fox, and a similar percentage trust MSNBC. 

So, where are they turning for news? Roughly a third of voters say that they trust other sources: national newspapers, local and regional newspapers, NPR and public television.

CESR survey director Jill Darling, along with USC Dornsife professors Margaret Gatz and Ann Crigler conducted a deeper analysis of the public trust in news sources in a blog post here.

News coverage of the president is affecting people’s moods. More than 4 out of 10 in the poll say they are frequently or always worried, disgusted or outraged by news that they hear about Trump from their favorite or most trusted source, and just over half said they feel disgusted.

People who consider Trump a trustworthy source had the most positive outlook: 4 out of 10 say that they frequently or always feel satisfied, 50 percent are hopeful and 44 percent are pleased. On the other side: 78 percent of likely Democratic midterm voters report feeling worried, 83 percent disgusted and 78 percent outraged. 

Fatigue or annoyance with news coverage is setting in. Across the political spectrum, many say they are tired of partisan coverage. Between 40 to 50 percent of respondents who trust each of the news sources listed in the poll say they always or frequently feel tired of the hyperpartisan coverage.

Among likely voters, the poll also shows:

• 43 percent rate their chance of casting a ballot in a congressional House race this November at less than 80 percent, but 44 percent were 100 percent certain that they will vote.
• Among likely voters, 46 percent say they will vote for a Democrat for the U.S. House while 36 percent said they will vote for a Republican and 16 percent were undecided.
• Among the undecided likely voters, 48 percent lean toward voting Republican, while 34 percent lean toward voting for a Democrat.
• Overall, likely voters back Democrats over Republicans by 8 percentage points (52 percent to 44 percent).
• 57 percent of women voters are backing Democrats, versus 38 percent Republican.

The following experts at USC Dornsife who lead the poll are available for interviews upon request:

• Robert Shrum, director of the Center for the Political Future
• Michael Murphy, co-director of the Center for the Political Future
• Jill Darling, survey director of the Center for Economic and Social Research

To arrange an interview with experts about the poll, please contact Emily Gersema at (213) 361-6730 or gersema@usc.edu

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