22 APRIL

Politics of the pandemic: The China issue

The United States’ struggles to contain COVID-19 has sparked debate over whether the pandemic is compromising its capacity as a global leader. With China appearing to be through the worst of the pandemic, is this moment an opportunity to outshine or even displace the US?

Kurt Campbell, Obama administration Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, recently issued a warning this could be a “Suez moment” for the US, as the 1956 Suez Canal crisis marked the end of the United Kingdom’s reign as a global power. In his latest article for The Australian, USSC Non-Resident Fellow Dr John Lee says the Suez comparison is an "ill-fitting analogy", pointing to indicators of China’s enduring economic health which has been declining since Xi Jinping came into power.

"Beyond the immediate economic hit," Dr Lee says, "the pandemic is already leading to domestic discussions about how better to protect and enhance the US’s already powerful knowledge, industrial and economic base."

"This will be the mission whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden is the president in 2021.”

Dr Lee says there is no doubt China is “trying to use the pandemic to enhance its global standing”, but insists it isn’t underlying US weakness which will determine whether Beijing succeeds. Instead, it will be “distraction, complacency or else losing its nerve” that strikes the definitive blow to the United States in the struggle for global dominance.

READ MORE HERE

NEWS WRAP

#BeijingBiden

Attack ads foreshadow Biden-Trump war on China.
New political attack ads have hit out at Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden’s views on China before the Coronavirus outbreak. Pro-Trump political action committee America First Action PAC poured US$10 million into the “Beijing Biden” ads being rolled out in the key states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. The ads include clips of Biden in 2011 saying a “rise in China is a positive development”, and warn viewers to “stop China, you have to stop Joe Biden”. Biden’s campaign hit back with a series of ads which argue the “uncomfortable truth” is that President Trump “left America vulnerable and exposed to the pandemic”. As the election campaign heats up, the ads cement China as a key issue ahead of the November poll. READ MORE HERE
US class action suit for coronavirus compensation.
The litigious tendency of Americans to seek compensation and vindication through lawsuits has crossed a new threshold. Thousands of Americans have signed on to a class action lawsuit against China to seek billions in damages and compensation. In addition to pointing to China as the impetus of the pandemic, the lawsuit points the finger at the Chinese Government as directly culpable. Whether this is merely a publicity stunt for catharsis or if these lawsuits will turn on the US Government in the future is yet to be seen. READ MORE HERE
China warned to stop “bullying behaviour”.
The US State Department issued a statement calling on China to "cease its bullying behaviour" in the South China Sea amid concerns over reports China was taking “repeated proactive actions” targeting offshore oil and gas developments in disputed waters. A recent article for War on the Rocks, co-authored by USSC Senior Fellow Dr Charles Edel, points to a substantial increase in the number of incidents between China and its neighbours as the coronavirus pandemic unfolds in the fore. “Washington would be deluding itself if it were to trust that China will not take advantage of the current situation,” Dr Edel warns, arguing China's recent "opportunism and assertiveness" aren't new development. READ MORE HERE
US ignored warning signs.
In an ironic twist of the China-US supply chain tussle, the US significantly increased its face mask and ventilator exports to China in January and February of this year. While pursuing the opportunity to win the supply battle with Made in America equipment, they did so at the expense of the health care workers and lives of those living in the United States. Now struggling with an unprecedented shortage, the political reckoning of this short-sighted decision is only just beginning. READ MORE HERE

If it was a mistake, a mistake is a mistake. But if they were knowingly responsible, yeah, then there should be consequences.

President Donald Trump
On China and the Coronavirus outbreak
White House coronavirus press briefing
19 April 2020

ANALYSIS

Great powers play a diplomatic blame game

Ashley Townshend
Director, Foreign Policy and Defence

Matilda Steward
Research Associate, Foreign Policy and Defence

When Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne called for an independent inquiry into the COVID-19 pandemic on ABC Insiders last Sunday, she would have expected a rebuke from Beijing.

But she and the other Australian leaders who have since put their name to this request – including Shadow Foreign Minister Penny Wong – probably didn’t count on being caught up in China’s war of words with the United States over the pandemic.

This is the regrettable place where we and other middle powers find ourselves today.

Rather than coming together as an international community to respond to and learn from the worst global health crisis in living memory, the world is witnessing an intensification of US-China rivalry for influence at a time when neither can claim to have been sufficiently prepared.

China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang was sharp with his words, calling Payne’s doubts about Chinese “transparency” with regards to the pandemic “disrespectful” and “inconsistent with the facts.” But he went further to deliberately discredit Canberra’s call for an inquiry by hinting that Washington was behind it – declaring, inaccurately, that Australia was “dancing to the tune of a certain country to hype up the situation.”

This couldn’t be further from the truth.

Beijing’s opposition to a no-holds-barred examination of the origins and trajectory of the pandemic may well derail our calls for a genuinely independent international review. But it doesn’t make it an invalid or disingenuous request.

Instead of forging greater international cooperation, we are in the midst of a diplomatic blame game between China and the United States which hurts all parties by curtailing opportunities for effective collective responses.

In an attempt to deflect widespread criticism of his own performance, Trump announced last week that his administration would halt funding to the World Health Organization pending a review into its early handling of the pandemic.

Notwithstanding prior praise of Beijing’s response, Trump accused the organisation of unwarranted deference that “willingly took China’s assurances to face value” and “pushed [its] misinformation.”

The United States is by far the biggest donor to the WHO, comprising 15 per cent of total voluntary contributions and dwarfing China’s annual input by a factor of 10. The administration’s decision has faced worldwide condemnation and risks upending the organisation’s efforts to curb the spread of COVID-19, particularly in low-income countries.

The announcement also follows sustained efforts by President Trump and senior administration officials to label COVID-19 as the “Wuhan” or “Chinese” virus, rejecting international conventions whilst stoking xenophobia.

Chinese Foreign Ministry officials have matched these efforts in-kind, circulating wholly unfounded conspiracy theories that the coronavirus originated in America and was spread by the US Army.

While US-China tensions did not begin with coronavirus, their effects are now being keenly felt.

Crucial collaboration between the public health agencies of both countries has declined in recent years due, in part, to the deterioration in bilateral ties. In 2017, China introduced legislative restrictions on the work of foreign-based researchers that required the monitoring of their activities by local security agencies, focusing some in the global health business to pack up shop.

In the context of an escalating trade war and deteriorating relations between the two great powers, the number of staff working at US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention operations inside of China has fallen from 47 to 14 since Trump took office in 2017.

None of these are good outcomes for the world. Infectious disease outbreaks have historically generated opportunities for international cooperation. Failures by both sides to adequately to prepare for the pandemic, coupled with a spiralling contest for influence between Beijing and Washington, suggests that history, this time, is not on our side.

Read more from the authors on this topic in their recent article for ABC News, "Coronavirus crisis shows both China and the US aren't equipped to lead the world".

COVID-19: BY THE NUMBERS

New case increase: US 4 per cent | AU 1 per cent

Most notably this week, we can see a distinct deceleration in new confirmed COVID-19 cases each day. While it is slowing in both countries, it has slowed almost completely in Australia, with some days even having fewer new cases than the day before. In the United States, there seems to be a bit of a plateau, indicating that further deceleration may require more stringent measures than what are currently in place.

To track the latest trends and numbers, visit our COVID-19 tracker HERE.

VIRTUAL EVENT

COVID-19: The Big Questions

Who is winning the politics of the pandemic in the United States?

Tragically, the United States has the world’s highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and fatalities. Compounding matters is the impending presidential election in November, putting President Trump’s leadership of the crisis under intense pressure and scrutiny, set against a background of deep division between Republicans and Democrats.

Democrats attack Trump as “weak”, while Trump and his supporters point to China, the World Health Organization and state governments as bearing responsibility. Who is winning the politics of the pandemic in the United States, how, and what are the consequences for the upcoming presidential election?

To discuss these issues as part of the latest piece in our series "COVID-19: The Big Questions", please join us for a webinar discussion featuring Cameron Stewart, Washington Correspondent for The Australian, in a conversation moderated by United States Studies Centre CEO Simon Jackman. Mr Stewart will pick up the issues addressed in his article from 20 April, “Coronavirus: Donald Trump attacked as US deaths pass 40,000” and talk about what’s next as the issue plays out.

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UPCOMING PUBLICATIONS

US-China economic distancing in the era of great power rivalry and COVID-19

Already on full display in the friction over excluding Huawei from the 5G roll out, the power play between China and the US has only gotten more complex in light of COVID-19. Non-resident fellow, Dr John Lee, examines how “a gradually awakening Chinese economy is occurring when America and much of the world is shutting down” in an upcoming report.

If anything, the movement toward decoupling, disentangling and diversification away from China has been accelerated as the dependencies between the United States and decisions of the Communist Party have transformed from hypothetical to reality. This report explores the scenarios we’ll see if the United States manages supply chain risks by fully splitting, loosening ties or hedging bets with the Chinese elements. These scenarios paint the best picture of what economic changes to expect and how businesses can best plan and prepare to be one step ahead.

To receive a direct notification when it is published, please sign up for our research alerts HERE.

To book a media or corporate briefing, please contact us at: +61 2 9114 2622

VIDEO

The coronavirus and the future of America's China policy

Did you miss our webinar event with guest speaker Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian, China reporter at Axios, discussing the future of the US-China relations in the age of COVID-19?

You can now watch Bethany's talk on our YouTube Channel!