7 NOVEMBER

No blue wave, but Dems close to House win

After eight years of Republican control, Democrats will likely win back the US House of Representatives following Tuesday's midterm elections. Democratic challengers have unseated Republicans in at least 17 closely watched House races so far, but hopes of a "blue wave" among Democrats did not eventuate, with Florida among the first states to prove decidedly strong for Republicans. 

After notching a series of Senate victories, Republicans are likely to expand their control over that chamber, flipping the states of Missouri, Indiana and North Dakota. Republican Senator Ted Cruz of Texas held off a surprisingly strong challenge from Democrat Beto O’Rourke.

By late evening in the United States, CNN, Fox News and NBC had all called the House for Democrats and the Senate for Republicans. Democrats are expected to use a majority in the House to launch subpoena-powered investigations into the president’s finances, Russian interference and administration ethics scandals.

NEWS WRAP

Minorities make midterms history

• The first Muslim congresswomen, first openly gay man elected governor, first Native American woman elected to Congress, and youngest woman ever elected to Congress were among those making history on Tuesday night. Axios took a look at the individual races that have opened the door to more diversity in American politics. READ MORE HERE.
   

• In what may prove an impactful decision for future elections, a Florida ballot initiative has restored voting rights to 1.5 million people who were convicted of felonies but have completed their sentences. The initiative was one of several representing the bipartisan criminal justice reform movement. Florida’s lifetime bans on voting and holding office for felons are considered some of the harshest in the country. READ MORE HERE
   

• Partisan gerrymandering — the practice of drawing electoral boundaries that favour one party over another — may yet prove a key factor in tight midterms battles. CEO Simon Jackman wrote an explainer this week detailing how redistricting differs in Australia and the United States, and how it could affect the outcome of the midterms. READ MORE HERE.
   

• On midterms eve a new US ambassador to Australia was announced. President Trump nominated Arthur Culvahouse, Jr., of Tennessee – chair emeritus of international law firm O'Melveny & Myers and a former counsel to President Reagan. Culvahouse was also involved in the vetting of vice presidential candidates Sarah Palin and Mike Pence. Senior fellow Charles Edel spoke to The Sydney Morning Herald about the pick. READ MORE HERE.
   
• The American economy is humming – another quarter-million jobs in October have pushed unemployment down to 3.7 per cent, and, for the first time in a long time, wages are starting to rise. That, however, was not Trump’s closing argument before polls opened Tuesday. Writing for Fairfax Media, honorary associate Nicole Hemmer noted that Trump instead returned to the rhetoric about immigration that launched his presidential campaign more than three years ago. READ MORE HERE.
   
• President Trump last week suggested he would end birthright US citizenship by executive decree. American Studies and History lecturer Thomas Adams wrote for the ABC that the sensible reaction is to ignore his statement. Only an amendment to the constitution approved by two-thirds of both chambers of Congress and three-quarters of all states can do so — utterly unimaginable in today's political environment. READ MORE HERE.
   
• Meanwhile, in China, Foreign Minister Marise Payne's visit to Beijing this week suggests the Chinese government is eager to get its relationship with Australia back on a friendly footing after some diplomatic frostiness and ongoing tension with the United States. Non-resident senior fellow John Lee wrote for The Australian newspaper that a diplomatic thaw and the steady flow of ministerial visits to China is welcome — but not at any price. READ MORE HERE.

The president spent the last week campaigning heavily for Senate candidates and we're seeing the payoff.

White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders
NBC News
6 November 2018

ANALYSIS

Trump's new man in Canberra

Jared Mondschein
Senior Fellow

Donald Trump may be the most unconventional president the United States has seen in generations, but he has just made an overwhelmingly conventional choice to be the next US ambassador to Australia, and one that is likely to help buoy the Australian-American alliance.

Arthur B. Culvahouse Jr., or 'AB' as he is known amongst friends and colleagues, is the sort of person that one would expect almost any other Republican president to nominate for the role. An establishment Republican figure, Culvahouse is probably best known for his vetting of GOP vice presidential candidates, including Mike Pence and, most famously, Sarah Palin. But he has actually been a DC figure since his time as a staffer for Howard Baker, the famed Republican senator for Tennessee from 1967-1985 known for his popularity in both political parties as the “great conciliator”.

As a senior aide to Baker – the ranking Republican on the Senate Watergate committee – Culvahouse supported Baker’s work on a committee that led the investigation into the biggest presidential scandal of the 20th century. And in 1987 – after President Reagan asked Baker to be his chief of staff amid the high likelihood of impeachment due to the Iran-Contra affair – Baker insisted on Culvahouse being White House counsel, who advises the president on all legal issues concerning the presidency and their administration. In surviving Iran-Contra and leaving the White House with an approval rating of more than 60 per cent, Culvahouse would become one of the president’s most trusted aides and cement his role as a trustworthy staffer who could quietly tackle the most difficult of tasks.

While Culvahouse may not be a household name outside of the beltway, his government-related accomplishments, extensive ties across the Hill, and lucrative career leading an elite US law firm working in national security and foreign investment, have earned him respect across the political aisle and in the private sector. By all accounts, Culvahouse could not be further removed from Trump’s personality in that he eschews the limelight and prefers discrete and diligent work over partisan bluster.

But will all this translate into being a good US ambassador to Australia?

Many Australians found the lack of an official ambassador for more than two years to be insulting, with complaints that it appeared the Trump administration wasn’t prioritising one of America’s strongest allies. This was only underscored by how the last nominee for the role, Harry Harris, was quickly removed for consideration at the last minute in order to instead become the ambassador to South Korea.

Ultimately, Culvahouse appears to have the experience, temperament, and intelligence to address the challenges the United States faces in Australia and the region at large. Most importantly, Culvahouse also seems to have two huge advantages for what makes a conventionally good ambassador in that he has the ear of the president and seems capable of navigating the complexities of both US and foreign bureaucracies.

But with the US president facing exceedingly low approval ratings in Australia, Culvahouse will need to be more than conventionally talented at representing a government led by an exceedingly unconventional president.

DIARY

The week ahead

• Friday, 9 November: President Trump is scheduled to travel to Paris to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the end of World War I. He is also expected to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
   

• Friday, 9 November: World Freedom Day, marking the anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall.
   

• 12-15 November: Australian Senate sitting.
   

• 12-18 November: APEC Economic Leaders' Week in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.

EVENT

Planet America LIVE: Midterms special

VIDEO

Simon Jackman joins Marc Fennell to help explain Midterms 2018 for The Feed

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

#midterms

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University of Sydney NSW 2006

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