Thank you for your feedback on the Market Lab newsletter. In response to your reactions, we've added more data to this newsletter. Please keep your feedback coming as we work to improve this newsletter by filling out a short survey. DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ % change from the Highs and Lows of the Year: The DJIA on 8/17 was 25669.32. This is down 3.56% from the high of the year, which was 26616.71 on 1/26 and up 9.08% from the low of the year, which was 23533.20 on 3/23. The S&P on 8/17 was 2850.13. This is down 0.79% from the high of the year, which was 2872.87 on 1/26 and up 10.43% from the low of the year, which was 2581.00 on 2/8. The NASDAQ on 8/17 was 7816.33. This is down 1.46% from the high of the year, which was 7,932.24 on 7/25 and up 15.33% from the low of the year, which was 6777.16 on 2/8. Index P/Es DJIA close: 25669.32 P/E: 23.18 S&P 500 close: 2850.13 P/E: 24.69 2017 | 2016 DJIA Book Value: 6201.99 | 5818.74 DJTA Book Value: 3217.98 | 2561.22 DJUA Book Value: 360.31 | 344.79 Trading Diary QCHA% | QACH% | QCHAQ% Monday: –.66 | –.66 | –.53 Tuesday: +.52 | +.09 | +.30 Wednesday: –.97 | –1.77 | –1.13 Thursday: +.59 | +.44 | +.94 Friday: +.43 | +.31 | +.17 Weekly Advance/Decline Totals NYSE | NASDAQ Total Issues: 3,132 | 3,281 Advances: 1,723 | 1,537 Declines: 1,361 | 1,667 Unchanged: 48 | 77 New Highs: 201 | 263 New Lows: 245 | 342 Arms Index NYSE | NYSE Amer | NASDAQ Monday: 1.85 | 1.25 | 0.85 Tuesday: 0.98 | 1.69 | 1.21 Wednesday: 1.63 | 1.79 | 1.42 Thursday: 1.02 | 0.79 | 1.82 Friday: 0.64 | 0.37 | 1.18
Insider Transaction Ratio Top 5 Companies by Insiders Buying in 2018: SYM: # of insiders | # of Shrs. | $ Val. AVEO: 47 | 15,427,027 | $33,797,920 YORW: 42 | 2,168 | $66,022 FFBC: 31 | 7,507 | $224,304 DNBF: 20 | 3,667 | $126,480 GFN: 19 | 2,947,228 | $33,947,220 Box Score 8/17 | 2 Wks | 3 Wks Market Vane T-Bds: 46% | 43% | 44% Market Vane Euro$: 37% | 35% | 34% Consensus T-Bds: 37% | 36% | 35% Consensus Euro$: 25% | 24% | 23% Consensus Euro fx: 25% | 25% | 26% Investor Sentiment Readings 8/17 | 2 Wks | 3 Wks Consensus Bull: 60% | 59% | 57% AAII Bullish: 36.2% | 36.4% | 29.1% AAII Bearish: 29.1% | 31.0% | 32.1% AAII Neutral: 34.8% | 32.6% | 38.8% Market Vane Bull: 61% | 62% | 61% TIM Group: 42.1% | 47.9% | 44.1% Delta Market Sentiment Indicator Current Sentiment: 8/17 | 2 Wks | 3 Wks BULLISH 60.6%| 62.9%| 63.4% Current Market Exposure: 100% Equities, 0% Bonds, 0% Cash The panic/euphoria model is a gauge of investor sentiment. It identifies "Panic" and "Euphoria" levels which are statistically driven buy and sell signals for the broader market. Historically, a reading below panic supports a better than 95% likelihood that stock prices will be higher one year later, while euphoria levels generate a better than 70% probability of stock prices being lower one year later. Barron's Bond Indexes Confidence Index: 79.7 Best Grade Bonds: 3.83 Interm-Grade Bonds: 4.80 Stock/Bond Yield Gap: -1.70 Barron's Gold Mining Index 8/16 | 8/9 | Yr Ago Index: 390.17 | 440.01 | 496.12 Sources & Definitions QCHA % = the average stock advances or declines by the %. i.e. .25 means the average stock was up 0.25 %. Arms Index = a number derived by dividing one quotient into another quotient. The numerator in the index is the composite volume of advancing stocks divided by the composite volume of declining stocks. A figure Greater than 1 means more action is in declining stocks. Less than 1 more action is in rising stocks. P/E = is the ratio of the price relative to its annual per-share earnings. Consensus Bullish = CONSENSUS identifies the 75 percent level as the overbought level and 25 percent as oversold, these points should be interpreted not as absolute reversal points, but rather as approximate levels of potential market shifts. It is also important to note the trends in the data to get a fuller sense of possible market directions indicated. AAII Numbers = data represents what direction AAII members feel the market will take over the next six months. Market Vane Bullish = the degree of bullish sentiment for the S&P 500. For example: a Bullish Consensus of 65% for the S&P 500 implies that 65% of the traders are bullish and expect the S&P 500 to rise. Conversely, 35% of the traders are bearish and expect the index to decline. TIM Group Market Sentiment = the Market Sentiment score ranges from 0 (most bearish) to 100 (most bullish) and represents a completely objective, real-time view into the advice that sell-side firms are providing their buy-side clients. Delta Market Sentiment Indicator = measures the position of ~1,600 stocks relative to an intermediate-term moving average crossover (MAC) point. When greater than 50% of the stocks followed are above this MAC point, the market is bullish. When the indicator is below 50%, risk is elevated and stock exposures should be reduced. Manger uses discretion on asset allocation when MSI is at 50% +/- 3%. Market Sentiment = When the chart goes negative it states that a year from now the market should trade higher. Confidence Index = high-grade index divided by intermediate-grade index; decline in latter vs. former generally indicates rising confidence, pointing to higher stocks. Best Grade Bonds = Barron's index of 10 high-grade corporate bonds. Interm-Grade Bonds = Barron's index of 10 medium-grade corporate bonds. Stock/Bond Yield Gap = Difference between yield on highest-grade corporate bonds and yield on stocks on the DJIA Box Score Sources: consensus-inc.com, Historic Data available at 816-373-3700 or editor@consensus-inc.com & Market Vane Delta Market Sentiment Indicator Source: Delta Investment Management, www.deltaim.com, (415) 249-6337 Insider Transactions Source: Thomson Reuters Investor Sentiment Readings Sources: consensus-inc.com, Historic Data available at 816-373-3700 or editor@consensus-inc.com, American Association of Individual Investors, Market Vane & TIM Group Panic/Euphoria Model Source: Citigroup Investment Research - US Equity Strategy You are currently subscribed as [email address suppressed]
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