Bernie Sanders has won a plurality victory in the New Hampshire Democratic Primary.

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The 45th
 

12 FEBRUARY

New Hampshire feels a warm Bern

Bernie Sanders has declared victory in the New Hampshire Democratic Primary. With the vast majority of votes counted, Sanders currently sits at 26 per cent, two percentage points ahead of former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg. After the chaos of the Iowa caucuses, the first-in-the-nation primary has delivered Sanders the first clear win of the race. In his victory speech, Sanders, who won the state decisively in 2016, said "this victory here is the beginning of the end for Donald Trump".

Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, who currently has 20 per cent of the votes in New Hampshire, (despite polling 4.4 per cent nationally), has been the stand-out performer of the night. The third-place finish will give her campaign a much-needed lift ahead of a difficult run of states. Klobuchar has low levels of support among minorities, who will figure prominently in the Nevada caucuses and the South Carolina primary. 

The New Hampshire results have been devastating for Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and former Vice President Joe Biden, who look set to place fourth and fifth respectively. Neither of them will win any pledged delegates from the state.

READ MORE HERE

 

NEWS WRAP

DOJ stonewalls its own

  • Four US federal prosecutors have withdrawn from the sentencing of former Trump campaign associate Roger Stone after more-senior Justice Department officials intervened in the case. The prosecutors had recommended that Stone be sentenced to seven to nine years in prison on the charges of lying to Congress and witness tampering. President Trump labelled the recommendation a "horrible situation" and a "miscarriage of justice" on Twitter. Following the president's tweet, Senior Justice Department officials sought a more lenient sentence in an official court filing. READ MORE HERE
     

  • The Trump administration has proposed a US$4.8 trillion government budget, outlining an increased spend on NASA and the military and slashes to spending on social safety net programs. Under the plan, national security and military spending would be bolstered to US$720 billion, while NASA would see a 12 per cent increase to fund a mission to Mars. While White House officials claim the budget would close the national deficit (projected to reach $1.02 trillion this year) by 2035. The budget is just an outline and still needs to pass Congress where it is likely to face stiff opposition. READ MORE HERE
     

  • Leaked audio from 2015 shows Democratic hopeful Michael Bloomberg categorically defended the controversial 'stop and frisk' policy from his time as the mayor of New York. In the audio, the billionaire can be heard saying that criminals “fit one M.O. You could just take the description, Xerox it and pass it out to all the cops. They are male, minorities, 15 to 25". In a since-deleted tweet, President Trump responded to the tape by labelling Bloomberg a "total racist", despite publicly supporting stop and frisk at the time. Bloomberg apologised for the policy in November 2019 just before announcing his presidential campaign.READ MORE HERE
     
  • Andrew Yang and Senator Michael Bennet have dropped out of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. The two candidates made the announcements as it became clear that neither would reach the delegate threshold in the New Hampshire primary. Yang, a tech-entrepreneur, has been one of the stand-out surprises of the campaign, developing a dedicated base and running on a platform centered around a universal basic income. Bennet, a Senator from Colorado was unable to cut through in the crowded moderate lane with Biden, Klobuchar and Buttigieg. READ MORE HERE 
     
  • South Korean film Parasite has become the first non-English language film to take home the Oscar for best picture. The dark comedy thriller dominated the 92nd Academy Awards, winning four of the six categories it received nominations in. The film came away with victories in the best international feature film and best original screenplay categories, while Bong Joon-ho took out the best director. READ MORE HERE
 

"Enough is enough. In light of the problems that have emerged in the implementation of the delegate selection plan and in order to assure public confidence in the results, I am calling on the Iowa Democratic Party to immediately begin a recanvas."

Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez
Responding to issues in the Iowa caucuses
7 February 2020

 

ANALYSIS

Democrats teetering on self-destruction after Iowa 

Stephen Loosley, AM
Non-resident Senior Fellow

The Iowa Democratic Party achieved the most astonishing transmission failure since the Dallas police endeavoured to transport Lee Harvey Oswald out of their basement garage.

A fiasco has eclipsed what was an elementary exercise in participatory democracy at 1,700 polling stations. This is not the first time in which politics in Iowa has been subject to delay bordering on debacle. But last time it was on the other side of the aisle.

The loss of momentum denies a successful candidate the ability to be recognised as serious and, therefore, worthy of support in the next contests along with a greater capacity to raise money.

Given that Iowa occupies first place in candidate selection for the presidency, Des Moines becomes the centre of the known political universe for a time every four years.

Donald Trump came to Des Moines before the caucus to talk to a rally at Drake University. It was his usual mixture of bombast and bluster, delivered with a bravado not seen since Andrew Johnson occupied the White House. Trump’s stock speech is to maintain that a Democratic victory in November means the end of civilisation as we know it. What is surprising is how many Americans accept and applaud this.

However, the reaction to Trump is never in doubt. His base idolises him. His critics will never accept him as legitimate. During a week in Iowa, this became clear beyond doubt. One Democratic caucus-goer observed: “I would rather vote for a potato than Donald Trump.” This was met by cheers.

Overwhelmingly, the issue that mattered to voters was healthcare, which is why Democratic senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders were tied in such knots over the expansion of Medicare.

The middle ground was represented by former vice-president Joe Biden and former mayor of South Bend, Indiana Pete Buttigieg, who are for an expansion of health insurance. Biden argues that across a decade Warren’s healthcare proposals would cost $US35 trillion ($51.8 trillion).

Buttigieg has broken new ground and his preparedness to tackle issues such as poverty reflects well on his candidacy and has been rewarded by the voters.

Buttigieg is both personable and thoughtful, and he stands his ground.

One attendee at the University of Iowa meeting challenged him on the Middle East. Buttigieg stood by his position in support of Israel, while being critical of certain policies of the Trump administration and the Netanyahu government.

Biden is measured in his approach. He understands that to win in November, by “beating Trump like a drum”, the Democrats must recover the middle ground, particularly among working-class constituents in the Midwest and the upper Midwest. He understands instinctively that the core of the Democratic Party simply wants to beat Trump. This is his focus.

However, Biden has failed to impress. He is now on the edge of viability.

For now Sanders is front and centre among candidates.

Let’s be frank. Sanders is a longshot to win the presidency. It’s difficult to disagree with Senator Lindsey Graham, who cheekily observed that Sanders had gone off to holiday in the Soviet Union and had never come back.

The main problem with Sanders’s campaign is that at the margins his supporters are trolls who trash other Democratic candidates. In 2016, he stayed in the race far longer than reasonable, thus denying Hillary Clinton valuable time and money. Now the “Bernie Bros” snipe at every other Democrat in the field. This is an exercise in self-destruction.

The American economy motors on, which favours the incumbent President heavily, as reflected in his State of the Union address. If the Democratic Party cannot unify around a single nominee, then Trump is certain to win a second term and the Trump era continues, dominant in the Republican Party and the country at large.

This is an abridged version of a piece that originally ran in The Australian

 

Learn@Lunch (evening edition): Political satire

In an age where late night TV hosts dominate YouTube, the US Consulate General Sydney and the Australian American Fulbright Commission are hosting a panel discussion on why political satire matters in Australia and the US and what impact it has.

Featuring:

  • Dr Rodney Taveira, lecturer (US Studies Centre)
  • Dan Ilic, comedian (A Rational Fear podcast, Obama Foundation Young Leader),
  • Victoria Zerbst, comedian (SBS The Feed, US Consulate Sydney Youth Advisory Council) 

The panel will be moderated by Flip Prior from the ABC News Investigations team. 

DATE & TIME
12 February 2020
6.00pm - 8.00pm

LOCATION
The Beresford Hotel
354 Bourke St
Surry Hills NSW 2010

COST
Free, but registration required.

BOOK NOW
 

VIDEO

Director Bong Joon-Ho accepts the first Oscar for a South Korean film

 

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

#YangGone

 

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University of Sydney NSW 2006

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The United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney is a university-based research centre, dedicated to the rigorous analysis of American foreign policy, economics, politics and culture. The Centre is a national resource, that builds Australia’s awareness of the dynamics shaping America — and critically — their implications for Australia.

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