14 NOVEMBER 2018

Blue tide rising

The midterms may have been a week ago today, but three key results remain in play - depending on who you ask.

Recounts have begun in the Florida senate and governor races after late swings to the Democrats narrowed the projected Republican margins and saw Andrew Gillum, the Democratic gubernatorial hopeful, withdraw his concession. In Georgia, a federal judge has ordered that the governor race between Brian Kemp (R) and Stacey Abrams (D) not be called until at least Friday. Another tight race, for the Arizona senate seat, flipped on its election night result in favour of the Democrats.

It now appears the Democrats will win at least 35 seats in the House of Representatives, much more than the 27 projected on election night, and lose one or two fewer Senate seats than predicted. In response to the changing face of the results, CNN even aired an 'Election Night in America Continued' special in the United States on Tuesday. 

The president's reaction to the late swing, which is typical in US elections, has been to accuse Democrats of malfeasance and voter fraud. Trump took to Twitter to say that the Florida ballots were being pulled from the "wilderness" and had been "massively infected". He urged that the result "must go with Election Night" in favour of Republicans. Regarding Arizona, the president claimed that signatures did not match postal ballots and questioned whether it called for another election. Fact checkers have found no basis to these allegations. 

Despite an historic turnout for a midterm election cycle, accusations of voter fraud on the left and voter suppression on the right have led to competing claims that both sides of politics are responsible for eroding the American democratic tradition.

NEWS WRAP

Make Europe Great Again

• President Trump has been angered by the suggestion of a "true European army" to reduce the continent's reliance on the United States for security. France's president Emmanuel Macron made the suggestion while world leaders were gathered in the country to commemorate the centenary of the end of the First World War. In a Twitter barrage, President Trump took aim at President Macron's approval rating, his country’s employment rate, its trade policies on wine and even its performance in WWI. READ MORE HERE
   

• President Macron also issued a stunning rebuke of nationalism, seemingly aimed at Donald Trump. The US president has unashamedly adopted the term 'nationalist' at several political rallies. The rise of nationalism and populist politics such as those that led to the election of Donald Trump are often cited as a reaction to globalism. A new report by USSC's Trade and Investment Program Director Stephen Kirchner, however, suggests it is a lack of economic dynamism, and not rampant globalisation, that is the key driver. Dr Kirchner wrote about his findings in an essay for The Australian Financial Review. READ MORE HERE
   
• California is in the grips of its worst-ever wildfires as at least 42 have died and hundreds more remain unaccounted for. The most severe blaze has destroyed more than 7,600 structures and decimated the town of Paradise. President Trump approved a disaster declaration but accused Californian authorities of poor forest management, rejecting claims that climate change accounted for the unprecedented severity of these fires. READ MORE HERE.
   
• President Trump has not joined world leaders who are meeting in Southeast Asia over the coming week. Vice President Mike Pence will instead take the president's seat at the East Asia Forum in Singapore and the APEC Summit in Papua New Guinea. This comes at a critical time when the United States is considering its response to China's massive Belt and Road Initiative. While there are some good markers of US commitment to the Indo-Pacific, USSC Senior Fellow Charles Edel wrote for Foreign Affairs that more should be done. Edel suggests a doubling down on US commitment to the region and the appointment of an Indo-Pacific Ambassador-at-large. READ MORE HERE.
   
• Chuck Schumer says he will tie must-pass legislation to the independence of Robert Mueller. The Senate Democratic Leader additionally called for the new acting attorney general Matt Whittaker to recuse himself from the ongoing Russia probe as he has previously demonstrated animosity towards the investigation. Charles Edel and USSC lecturer in foreign policy Gorana Grgic both discussed the implications of former AG Jeff Sessions' forced resignation on the inaugural episode of USSC's podcast Vision2020. LISTEN TO THE PODCAST. 
   
• The shakeup of the White House looks set to continue, with two key security officials reportedly set to be fired. Remarkably, the First Lady issued a media release publicly calling for the removal of senior national security adviser Mira Ricardel. The Washington Post also reports that the White House is poised to fire Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen. Visiting fellow Bruce Wolpe predicted this latter move in his dissection of the elections for his Midterm Matters blog. READ MORE HERE.  

“I am replacing my words of concession with an uncompromised and unapologetic call that we count every single vote.”

Andrew Gillum
Democratic gubernatorial candidate for Florida
10 November 2018

ANALYSIS

Foolish to rule out a Trump 2020 victory

Simon Jackman
United States Studies Centre CEO

Above all, these midterm elections were a reaffirmation of American democracy. A signal contrary to much commentary, that neither Trump — nor the Russians, the Chinese, nor the Internet nor Fox News — are destroying American democratic institutions. To be sure, American election administration is an embarrassment, a deplorable cacophony of state and local variation in professional, incompetence, resourcing and partisan chicanery. The Florida recount promises to be spectacularly unedifying.

But candidates came out of the woodwork, especially for Democrats and especially women. Voters followed, despite the many barriers in their way. No matter one's politics, a surge in the number and diversity of candidates — and winners — ought to be celebrated, signalling a polity whose citizens are engaged and passionate about its democratic institutions.

Turnout was always going to be high, but it surpassed most prior guesses. About 104 million votes for House candidates have been counted thus far, about 77 per cent of the 135 million votes cast for presidential candidates in 2016. In contrast, turnout in the 2010 midterms — when Republicans took the House at Obama's first midterm — was 66 per cent of 2008 turnout and 2014 turnout was only 58 per cent of 2012 turnout.

The turnout surge — or the smaller, midterm turnout slump — was not all due to Democrats. The Kavanagh Supreme Court confirmation was the change point, seized upon by Trump and the party. Trump injected himself into the campaign in the closing weeks — drawing on the fact he enjoys a near 90 per cent approval rating among Republican identifiers — talking up immigration and border security, going so far as to mobilise the US military to defend the Mexican border. It all worked. Republican voters reported being as enthusiastic and engaged as Democrats by the end of the campaign.

America returns to divided government. Like Bill Clinton in 1994 and Obama in 2010, Trump now has a hostile House of Representatives. Legislating the Trump agenda is essentially no more. Executive action — always a more comfortable route for Trump — becomes all the more important.

Compromises with the Democrats seem fantastic to contemplate, but trading Democratic support for continued large defence budgets for an infrastructure package — and surrender on repealing Obamacare — might be one place to look. Democratic-controlled House committees will rain subpoenas on the White House, and a live question is whether Democratic leader Pelosi (or her successor) can hold off calls from her caucus for impeachment proceedings. Democrats will likely support Trump's toughness with respect to China, with concerns over human rights added to trade, IP and security issues.

Trump's "ownership" of the Republican Party – his ability to mobilise the Republican base – is one of the big takeaways. Absent some devastating revelation from the Mueller investigation, or an abrupt downturn in the economy, Trump will almost surely be renominated by his party in 2020, should he seek a second term.

Democrats performed well in several states that Trump won in 2016: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas returned state-wide majorities for Democrats in either House votes, Senate votes, governor's races, or all three. Yet two large, swing states — Ohio and Florida — appear, for now, to have withstood the blue tide. The 2020 implications are elusive – much will depend on who the Democrats nominate – but it would be foolish to point at these results and Trump's approval rating and predict he won't or can't win in 2020.

This is an excerpt of an essay originally published in The Australian Financial Review. 

DIARY

The week ahead

• 14 - 15 November: The ASEAN Summit continues in Singapore.
   

• 14 - 15 November: Singapore to host the annual East Asia Summit. 
   

• 17 - 18 November: The APEC Summit will be held in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.

EVENT

US and Australian strategy in the Indo-Pacific

VIDEO

Trump stares down the King of Morocco as he sleeps

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

#CaliforniaFires

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