No images? Click here 30 SEPTEMBERA clear winner? Debatable.Today’s presidential debate saw Joe Biden and Donald Trump go head-to-head for the first time in the campaign. Unsurprisingly, the tension was palpable, but even the extremes from the 2016 debates pale in comparison. Seasoned moderator and Fox News host, Chris Wallace, was unable to reign in the discussion in the swing state of Ohio. The debate wound through some of President Trump's key campaign talking points — covering mail in ballots, law and order and the economy — but the amount of talking over the top of each other led to an
overall incoherence. Rather than seeing whether red or blue wins the day, the debate may test whether respect and decorum can exist in the 2020 campaign. All eyes turn now to next week’s vice-presidential debate. VIDEOA conversation with election analyst Charlie CookDid you miss our recent webinar event with world-renowned election analyst Charlie Cook? Editor and publisher of The Cook Political Report and widely regarded as one of the best non-partisan trackers of Congressional races, Charlie Cook appeared alongside US Studies Centre CEO Professor Simon Jackman and Non-Resident Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe to discuss the state of the race, as 3 November looms on the horizon. Watch the full discussion HERE. Catch this and other recent webinars on the USSC YouTube channel! NEWS WRAPTax time troubles for Trump
These are the political equivalent of ghost stories. This election would have to get a heck of a lot closer for any of those things to even be remotely relevant. Election Analyst Charlie Cook In the 2016 election between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, many conventional analysts — as well as Clinton supporters — said it was clear the former secretary of state had won each one of their debates. Clinton, they posited, provided strong data points and policy analysis that made clear she was more presidential and appropriate for the job. Trump supporters, on the other hand, argued it was undeniable he had, in fact, won the debates because he ridiculed and mocked Clinton in a way that she deserved. The Clinton-Trump debates in 2016 were like Rorschach tests — your perception of them depended on your opinion of the candidates. Four years later, there appears to be more consensus about the clear winner of the first debate between Trump and Biden: chaos. With countless interruptions, personal attacks and name calling, some have already called it the worst debate they’ve ever seen. But the debate, in many ways, mirrors where America is right now: this is perhaps the worst political climate the country has seen in modern history. People are angry and using raised voices while refusing to agree upon a basic set of facts. The ultimate question, however, is whether this will change any opinions of US voters. Nearly 90 per cent of voters came into the debate saying their minds were already made up about who they will be voting for. Many voters have, in fact, already submitted their ballots. But given Trump’s 2016 victory was ultimately reliant on a margin of fewer than 80,000 votes across Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, even the smallest of advantages could prove critical in the election. Initial polling conducted after the debate indicated Biden may have won a slim advantage over Trump. What is much clearer, however, is who lost: US voters. This is an excerpt from a larger article in The Conversation. VIRTUAL EVENTElection Watch: US politics web series
The October episode of Election Watch, the Perth USAsia Centre and United States Studies Centre's monthly US politics web series, will feature special guests Jeff Flake, a Republican who represented Arizona in the US Senate from 2013 to 2019, and Dr Gorana Grgic, Lecturer in US Politics and Foreign Policy at the United States Studies Centre. Flake and Grgic will join USSC CEO Simon Jackman and Perth USAC CEO Gordon Flake for their insights on the top stories in US politics. WHEN: BY THE NUMBERSOhio polling2020 polls: 1% Biden lead | 2016 error: 6.9% toward TrumpToday’s debate was in Ohio. With 18 electoral votes it is the third largest swing state in 2020. The average of current polls show Biden with a 1 per cent lead in the polls. While in 2016, the
final polls tipped Trump to win Ohio by 1.2 per cent, they were 6.9 percentage points shy of the actual result. If the election were held today and polls are as wrong as they were in 2016, it would indicate a Trump victory by 5.9 per cent. Manage your email preferences | Forward this email to a friend United States Studies Centre |