21 NOVEMBER

But her emails...

President Donald Trump has rejected claims of hypocrisy after revelations that his daughter Ivanka Trump used a personal email server to send hundreds of emails relating to government business. The emails were reportedly sent to White House aides, Cabinet officials and her assistants. The president famously called for his 2016 campaign opponent Hillary Clinton to be 'locked up' after her use of a personal email account was revealed.

"They weren’t classified like Hillary Clinton. They weren’t deleted like Hillary Clinton, who deleted 33,000. She wasn’t doing anything to hide her emails," Trump told reporters Tuesday.

Senior Democrats were quick to call for a Congressional investigation into the matter and with Republicans losing control of the House in January 2019, the Trump administration has little recourse to stop it from going ahead.

These developments come as the New York Times reports that earlier in the year, the president told the White House Counsel that he wanted the Department of Justice to prosecute both Hillary Clinton and former FBI director James Comey before being warned it could lead to impeachment.

NEWS WRAP

Dear Mr Mueller

Donald Trump has submitted written answers to questions from Special Counsel Robert Mueller. The questions relate to possible links between the president's campaign aides and Russian interference in the 2016 election. Trump's lawyers insist that with these answers in hand, Robert Mueller should conclude the inquiry. READ MORE HERE
For the first time in its history, there was no APEC joint statement issued by participating countries. The failure to reach a consensus on a statement on trade underscores what was a tense Southeast Asian summit season which was largely consumed by US-China competition. Non-resident senior fellow John Lee wrote for CNN that China was not prepared for the "concerted and coordinated pushback by the US and its allies" at the summit while Charles Edel has taken a look at the broader trends and prospects of US-China competition in a two-part series for The National Interest with Siddharth Mohandas. READ MORE HERE
The United States cannot afford to stay ahead of China's military on its current trajectory. A new report by former senior Pentagon official David Ochmanek, published by the United States Studies Centre, has found that budget deficits and recent tax reforms will likely preclude US curtailment of China's increasing military edge in the Indo-Pacific.The report titled 'Wisdom and Will? American military strategy in the Indo-Pacific' found that the United States has the capacity to change course, but perhaps not the will. The Sydney Morning Herald took an in-depth look at the report. R EAD MORE HERE
The death toll from the California wildfires continues to rise. Seventy-nine people are confirmed dead while over 700 remain listed as missing. Smoke from the catastrophic fire has reached as far as New York. Heavy rains forecast for California will ease the fire conditions, but raise the prospect of serious flooding and mudslides in already-affected areas. READ MORE HERE
There has been a marked decrease in foreign investment flows in Australia. This downtick in a marker of globalisation is at odds with the notion that the recent success of populist political movements is driven by a reaction to rampant globalisation. The director of USSC's Trade and Investment Program Stephen Kirchner noted in a recent report that the success of campaigns like Brexit and the election of Donald Trump came well after this broader slowing of economic dynamism began. The Australian looked at his findings in the context of trade tensions with China. READ MORE HERE
The Pentagon has costed the deployment of troops to the US-Mexico border at US$72 million. This comes as the president has signed a memorandum expanding the authorities granted to the military forces allowing them to protect customs officials. Previously, US troops did not have the legal authority to conduct law enforcement within the national borders. Over 5,900 troops were deployed to the border to respond to a caravan of South American migrants shortly before the midterm elections. Some of these troops are expected to return to their home bases before the end of the year. READ MORE HERE

The world is a very dangerous place!

President Donald J. Trump
White House statement defending the relationship with Saudi Arabia after Jamal Khashoggi's murder
20 November 2018

ANALYSIS

Why is Trump offering to help Nancy Pelosi become speaker?

Bruce Wolpe
Visiting Fellow at the United States Studies Centre

It’s stumping even the experts on Twitter: what is Donald Trump doing praising Nancy Pelosi and offering to help her get the votes she needs to become speaker of the House in January?

Twice since the midterms, Trump has offered to use his proclaimed power to deliver votes from House Republicans to Pelosi.

Trump on Twitter: “I can get Nancy Pelosi as many votes as she wants in order for her to be speaker of the House. She deserves this victory, she has earned it but there are those in her party who are trying to take it away. She will win!” This followed a tweet the day after the election: “If they (Democrats) give her a hard time, perhaps we will add some Republican votes.”

To understand what Trump is really doing, a little context is required.

For all his boasting about being a great deal maker, the fact is that Trump has failed miserably to cut any significant deals in Congress during his presidency. Trump failed to repeal and replace Obamacare. He failed to pass an infrastructure bill. He has failed to fully fund The Wall. His major legislative achievement – the tax cuts – was passed over the objections of the Democratic leadership, and with no Democratic votes for final passage.

When crises erupted in two major policy areas – how to resolve the “Dreamers” and granting them permanent immigration status and whether to take any significant steps on gun control, particularly in the wake of the mass shooting at Parkland High School in Florida – Trump began what looked like some serious work with Democrats to actually get something done. On both immigration and guns, there were live televised sessions from the Cabinet room, elbow-to-elbow with Democrats, with Trump engaging in significant give-and-take debate on possible legislative options.

What stunned Washington was that Trump seemed to entertain significant departure from orthodox Republican positions on immigration and guns.

But in both instances, Trump was pulled back in the days that followed by his staff, especially on immigration and by special interests such as the National Rifle Association on gun control.

No bipartisan compromise legislation on these issues has ever been reached, and certainly not passed into law.

With Democrats, Trump’s art is that of the no deal.

So what’s up with his superficially generous and magnanimous offer to Nancy Pelosi to help ensure she becomes speaker in January?

It’s all about Trump.

Trump is making a crude power play. If he delivers the votes to ensure that Nancy Pelosi becomes speaker, Trump will be able to say that the only reason Pelosi is speaker is because he made her speaker. Trump lost control of the House in the midterms. If his influence helps make Pelosi speaker, then he will claim a measure of control over the Democratic House of Representatives.

Out of defeat, a Trump triumph.

Nancy Pelosi is nobody’s fool. She will neither need, nor accept, any votes directed by Trump when she wins the vote on the House floor to become speaker. She has been clear: “I intend to win the speakership with Democratic votes.” Her spokesman affirmed: "Leader Pelosi will win the speakership with Democratic votes."

It is a quaint custom in Washington that former high officials retain the last title they held as they go about life without the trappings of power. Newt Gingrich, John Boehner, Paul Ryan – all “Mr Speaker” with whomever they encounter in Washington.

Since 2006, for Nancy Pelosi, it has been “Madam Speaker.”

And it will be so again on January 3, 2019. And she will not owe the 45th president a damn thing.

DIARY

The week ahead

Thursday, 22 November: Thanksgiving.
Saturday 24 November: Victorian state election is held.
Monday 26 November: Australian House of Representatives and Senate begin their penultimate sitting week for 2018.
Monday 26 November: The G20 Summit gets under way in Buenos Aires, Argentina with the leader's summit scheduled for 30 November.
Monday 26 November: Donald Trump will hold two political rallies in Mississippi.
Tuesday 27 November: Mississippi holds Senate runoff election.

EVENT

US and Australian strategy in the Indo-Pacific

Australia’s Shadow Minister for Defence, the Hon Richard Marles MP, will deliver a public address on the role of the US-Australia alliance in an increasingly complex Indo-Pacific region.

He will explore the enduring significance of the ANZUS alliance and bilateral defence relationship, as well as the implications of Washington’s National Defense Strategy and National Security Strategy for Australia’s own backyard and strategic policy choices.

The minister will elaborate on his analysis, 'The Nuclear Weapons Prohibition Treaty, National Security and ANZUS' during his public speech.

DATE & TIME
Thursday 22 November 2018
5.30pm–6.30pm

LOCATION
Corrs Chambers Westgarth

COST
$10 - $20

Register