VIRTUAL EVENT

Thanksgiving with Ambassadors Culvahouse and Sinodinos​

In a year when so much has changed, it is important to step back and search for silver linings. This is the spirit of the American Thanksgiving tradition, and it is with this noble practice in mind that the United States Studies Centre would like to invite you to a gathering of friends for a Thanksgiving webinar featuring US Ambassador to Australia Arthur B. Culvahouse Jr. and Australian Ambassador to the United States Arthur Sinodinos in conversation with USSC CEO Professor Simon Jackman.

WHEN:
Thursday, 26 November 2020, 11am AEDT (Sydney) 8am AWST (Perth)
Wednesday, 25 November 2020, 7pm EST (Washington, DC)

COST:
Free, but registration is essential

VIDEO

China's Belt and Road Initiative

Did you miss our recent China's Belt and Road Initiative webinar? Providing a US-Australian assessment of the contentious policy, the event featured CSIS Director of the Reconnecting Asia Project Jonathan E. Hillman in conversation with The Australian Financial Review’s Lisa Murray. Watch the full discussion HERE.

Catch this and other recent webinars on the USSC YouTube channel!

NEWS WRAP

Election defence GoFundMe

• Changing of the guard | Donald Trump announced via Twitter he has given the green light to his staff to begin "initial protocols" for the transition to the Biden-Harris administration, though he reaffirmed that he would not concede the election. In an interview with ABC's Patricia Karvelas, USSC's Dr Jennifer Hunt said a formal concession would put a halt to all fundraising activities, which President Trump has continued to aggressively pursue for his controversial "Election Defense Fund". TUNE IN HERE
   
• Thanksgiving travel warnings | Some Americans are flouting warnings to avoid travel for Thanksgiving family gatherings, with US airports recording their busiest day since the pandemic began. Hospitals and testing centres are preparing for a post-Thanksgiving COVID-19 spike in what Dr Anthony Fauci says will likely result in a "surge superimposed on a surge." READ MORE HERE
   
• Vaccine on the horizon | A COVID-19 vaccine could be available as soon as 11 December according to Dr Moncef Slaoui, the head of the White House's Operation Warp Speed. Dr Slaoui told NBC Americans could receive the vaccine as soon as 24 hours after the FDA grants approval. The FDA is set to meet on 10 December to discuss authorisation of the Pfizer/BioNTech developed vaccine for emergency use. READ MORE HERE
   
• An anti-China alliance? | Senior Trump administration officials are pushing to create an informal alliance of Western nations to retaliate against China's use of economic coercion, according to administration officials. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has since declared the Australian Government would not be "forced into a binary choice" between Washington and Beijing. READ MORE HERE

ANALYSIS

Biden's appointments: Climate for change

Dr Jim Orchard
Energy Analyst

After the tension of a very close election and dealing with the last gasps of the Trump era, work on climate action starts when Joe Biden and his team start making key appointments to his new administration. The Biden transition team will need to fill around 4,000 roles, of which 1,200 will require confirmation from a potentially hostile Senate. These appointments will have impacts across a range of contentious policy issues requiring not just the identification of qualified personnel but also meeting broader criteria such as balancing progressive and moderate ambitions, blending experience with new blood and achieving an appropriate gender and racial diversity.

FACTIONAL TENSIONS

Climate activists, who supported Biden during the campaign, are expecting an ambitious agenda that delivers much more than just a post-Trump reset. They are demanding both significant carbon reductions and action on environmental justice from the new administration. This means who Biden appoints and doesn’t appoint, as well as what new climate focussed roles are created will be closely scrutinised. Climate will be an early touchpoint, potentially vital to maintaining the nascent détente between progressives and moderates.
 

A factor supportive of continued party cooperation is that the Biden transition team is comprised of prominent progressive and centrist players, including chair and former Senator and Biden chief of Staff Ted Kaufman as well as Warren advisor Julie Siegel and Gautam Raghavan, chief of staff to Congresswoman and Congressional Progressive Caucus co-chair Pramila Jayapal.

Counting against this, however, is the angry response from climate activists to Biden’s recent appointment of Louisiana Congressman and historic beneficiary of fossil fuel funding Cedric Richmond to an important Department of Labor position. Progressives, who want a strict fossil-fuel-free purity test for all appointees, are angry that Biden has ignored their wishes with his first major selection. Varshini Prakash who is the director of the Sunrise Movement and a progressive representative on the climate unity team, set up to guide the Biden campaign, called the appointment “a betrayal”.

KEY CLIMATE APPOINTMENTS

The two highest-profile, climate-centric cabinet appointments, both of which require Senate confirmation, are the Energy Secretary and EPA Administrator. The timing and outcome of the two Georgia Senate races could play a part in who Biden selects, but if Republicans (or West Virginian moderate Joe Manchin) control the Senate this should favour moderates. There will also be a dozen or more senior climate critical roles in Justice, Transportation and Agriculture. The former critical if a Green New Deal environmental justice agenda is on the table and the latter if the administration wants to broaden the decarbonisation to include farm-based emissions.

Climate advocates, however, want more — calling for the creation of a new cabinet-level Office of Climate Mobilization as well as new senior roles specifically dedicated to environmental justice. The creation of a new cabinet-level position with full departmental authorities requires congressional approval so seems highly unlikely. Expect instead to see the appointments that bypass the Senate such as a senior climate “co-ordinator” tasked with managing an inter-departmental climate response as well as climate roles within the Executive Office of the President. The structure of the overall climate team and who is tasked to run these new functions will be closely watched.

This is an excerpt from Dr Jim Orchard's USSC publication.
Click below to read the full article.

BY THE NUMBERS

Pre-pandemic population growth

US 0.5% | Aus 1.4%

Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States was experiencing its weakest population growth in a century, a product of record-low fertility and a more restrictive approach to immigration. US population growth was running at an annual rate of just 0.5 per cent. Australia’s pre-pandemic population growth rate was running around three times faster than the United States at 1.4 per cent but was on a declining trajectory. 

Without immigration, Australia will experience a permanent loss of population and productive potential, but a move to link immigration and pandemic recovery may offer an opportunity to mitigate the economic impacts of 2020 and leverage successful pandemic management for ongoing growth. 

For more, read the full report by Dr Stephen Kirchner, USSC Director of Trade and Investment: Avoiding US-style demographic stagnation: The role of immigration and population growth in Australia’s post-pandemic recovery or download HERE. 

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

#DoneBidenTime