VIDEO

The Quad: Will it ever work?

Were you unable to make it to our special online panel event The Quad: Will it ever work?, featuring former White House National Security Advisor Lt General H.R. McMaster?

You can now watch the full webinar on our YouTube channel!

NEWS WRAP

Team Trump to tackle cyber attacks​

• Australia recruits former Trump aide to build cyber security strategy
  Prime Minister Scott Morrison has recruited Kirstjen Nielsen, the former US Secretary of Homeland Security in the Trump administration, to prepare Australia’s cyber security strategy. It comes amid rising tensions with China and in the wake of recent large-scale cyber attacks targeting Australian governments and companies. READ MORE HERE
   
• US, Australia should 'name and shame' state-backed cyber attackers
  Ashley Townshend, USSC Director of Foreign Policy and Defence, has urged the United States and Australia to consider ‘naming and shaming’ state-backed actors, including those from China, during the COVID-19 pandemic in cases where medical research becomes the target of cyber attacks. Speaking to the Sydney Morning Herald, Mr Townshend says that doing so could help to dissuade “nefarious” actions in areas that should be considered “off-limits for geopolitical rivalry”. READ MORE HERE
   
• US-China 'Cold War' leaves Australia in precarious position
  There is growing consensus in Washington that the era of US-China engagement is now at an end. USSC Non-Resident Senior Fellow Professor James Curran says this new ‘Cold War’ shows the US’ tendency to take Australia for granted, demanding positions on China which Australia “simply cannot afford to deliver”. READ MORE HERE
   
• US Foreign investment legislation could cripple some Australian university researchers
  The global research and development landscape is becoming increasingly competitive and volatile and Australia needs to become its own “agent of innovation”, according to USSC Research Fellow Brendan Thomas-Noone. Australian universities engaging in research projects with US and Chinese government backers could be put in a difficult situation if foreign investment legislation being revisited by US Congress gets passed. READ MORE HERE
   

• EU considers banning US travellers over COVID-19
  As coronavirus restrictions begin to ease, European Union member states are discussing barring visitors from several countries, including the United States. EU officials say the decision will be based on how travellers' countries of origin are progressing in managing the pandemic. READ MORE HERE

ANALYSIS

Strengthening trilateral cooperation in the Indo-Pacific

Matilda Steward
Research Associate, Foreign Policy and Defence Program

At the upcoming Australia-United States Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN), Australia and the United States should discuss working with Japan to recommit to and significantly expand their trilateral development agenda for the Indo-Pacific.

Strengthening the United States-Australia-Japan trilateral dialogue has been a key focus of previous AUSMIN meetings, but is needed now more than ever to support a sustainable regional recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Further coordination between the three countries provides an opportunity to capitalise on existing bilateral initiatives and better operationalise nascent trilateral cooperation into concrete outcomes.

But additional resources and better alignment of competencies from all parties is required to achieve this goal. In recent years, the United States, Australia and Japan have taken important steps to reform their development financing capabilities and establish a positive vision for high quality infrastructure investment in the region, most notably through the 2018 Trilateral Partnership for Infrastructure Investment in the Indo-Pacific and the 2019 Blue Dot Network (BDN). However, momentum on these initiatives has so far been disappointing.

The most visible progress on the trilateral agenda has been the Papua New Guinea Electrification Partnership which is still in the early stages of implementation despite being announced in late 2018. Planned projects in the energy, digital and transportation sectors also remain in the scoping phase, while the BDN – which is intended to certify infrastructure projects that meet certain quality standards – has yet to clarify what standards will underpin its certifications and what incentives will be provided to countries to engage in the process.

While infrastructure only forms part of the trilateral development agenda for the Indo-Pacific, taking concrete steps to deliver existing projects is crucial to the region’s economic recovery in the context of COVID-19. In Southeast Asia alone, growth is forecast to drop to 1 per cent in 2020 as a result of the pandemic. Even before the crisis, the Asian Development Bank estimated the region would need approximately US $210 billion per year in infrastructure investment.

To date, trilateral efforts have predominantly focused on incentivising private sector-led financing of high quality infrastructure in the region. But attracting significant private capital in such projects has long posed a challenge for development finance: the World Bank estimates private funds represented only 13 per cent of total annual investment in infrastructure in developing countries over the past decade. While Japan’s financial contribution to Southeast Asian infrastructure still outpaces China – with projects totalling US $367 billion to US $255 billion respectively – American and Australian contributions are almost negligible.

An early commitment at AUSMIN of new public funds from the United States and Australia to deliver pending infrastructure projects as part of the COVID-19 response is vital for communicating the value of the alliance to the region’s economic recovery.

Greater effort should also be made to align the unique competencies of each country in this regard. US firms have traditionally been at the forefront of global infrastructure development by employing the latest technologies, engineering and business practices. Japan has demonstrated a capacity and willingness to invest significant capital, and has developed relationships across the region to promote quality infrastructure, while Australia has close diplomatic and developmental ties across the Indo-Pacific, providing an avenue for greater trilateral coordination. Better leveraging US companies, Japanese capital and Australia’s regional connections to generate high-quality infrastructure projects in the wake of COVID-19 would go a long way towards signalling our combined commitment to bolstering regional resilience.

COVID-19: BY THE NUMBERS

Pennsylvania in focus

COVID-19 cases 82,696 | 2016 election margin 44,292

President Trump won Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes in the 2016 election – a mere 0.72 per cent. Today, Pennsylvania is the closest swing state in the polls and has had 82,696 cases of COVID-19 to date.

Aside from the logistical impact the pandemic may have on election day, the real test will be whether it changes the minds of voters by either pushing them toward a different party or disengaging them to a point where they do not vote at all.

VIRTUAL EVENT

Election Watch: The Trump campaign playbook​

By almost any measure, Americans across the country, and observers around the world, believe this is one of the most consequential and important US presidential elections in living memory. At the present time, President Trump is trailing Joe Biden, in head-to-head national polling and in critical swing states, including Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona. The United States is struggling under the crisis of racial justice, the immense human toll inflicted by the coronavirus, and the devastating economic impact on the economy. Together, they may be driving a profound shift in voter sentiment and outlook.

Which factors will make the biggest difference? What is the candid view from inside the White House? Can Joe Biden sustain his favourable standing over the next four months?

To discuss these issues, please join us for a webinar event featuring Jonathan Swan, National Political Reporter at Axios in conversation with USSC Non-Resident Fellow Bruce Wolpe and CEO Professor Simon Jackman.

WHEN:
Thursday 25 June 2020, 10am AEST

COST: 
Free, but registration is essential

MORE UPCOMING EVENTS

• American Australia Association: In Conversation with Robert Thomson, News Corp Chief Executive - Friday, 26 June 8am AEST 
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• United States Studies Centre: A conversation with author David Kilcullen - Tuesday, 30 June 11am AEST
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• United States Studies Centre: A new Cold War? China, America and the geopolitics of COVID-19 - Thursday, 16 July 11am AEST
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THE WEEK IN TWEETS

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