28 MARCH

Stormy season

A salacious 60 Minutes interview on Sunday has kept President Trump's Stormy Daniels distraction front and centre in the US media. The adult film actress (whose real name is Stephanie Clifford) alleges that she had an affair with Trump. A week-and-a-half before the 2016 election, she was paid to keep quiet about the alleged relationship by Trump's personal attorney, Michael Cohen.

She used her interview with Anderson Cooper to speak out about her ongoing legal battle with Cohen, as well as claims that she was threatened with physical violence after she first attempted to go public with the story in 2011.

The interview attracted 22 million viewers – 60 Minutes’ highest ratings in a decade.

Speaking from the podium of the White House press briefing room on Monday afternoon, administration spokesman Raj Shah said: “With respect to that interview, I will say the president strongly, clearly has consistently denied these underlying claims. The only person who’s been inconsistent is the one making the claims.”

NEWS WRAP

The fight of their lives

• Hundreds of thousands of young people marched in Washington DC for gun control at the weekend, joined by thousands more in Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis and Seattle. The 'March for Our Lives' was inspired by the 17 students and teachers shot dead at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida last month. Senior lecturer David Smith spoke to Triple J's Hack program about the significance of the new gun control movement. LISTEN HERE.
   

• Australia's foreign policy interests and ties with leading US politicians are likely to face significant disruption from the upcoming Midterm elections, according to a new research brief from the Centre, with major Democratic victories likely to see Washington and Trump's White House reach new levels of political dysfunction. The Australian Financial Review took a look at the brief's findings. READ MORE HERE.
   
• North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has made a surprise trip to Beijing. Chinese state media confirmed the visit Wednesday and said the North Korean leader would be willing to give up his nuclear weapons and hold a summit with the United States. President Xi Jinping said that China continues to push for denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula and made four proposals during their meeting to improve relations with North Korea, including maintaining frequent contact with Kim. READ MORE HERE.
   

• The Trump administration will impose tariffs on as much as US$60 billion in Chinese imports it announced last week, in an attempt to address intellectual property theft by China and a steep and persistent trade deficit. Foreign policy lecturer Gorana Grgic helped provide some background to the announcement for Channel 7's Sunrise program, as well as discuss last week's departure of Trump national security advisor H.R. McMaster. WATCH HERE.
   

• John Bolton will replace H.R. McMaster as Trump's national security advisor. A foreign policy hawk, the Washington veteran has called for military force against Iran and North Korea, and has taken a hard line against Russia. A vocal advocate of the Iraq war, the former US ambassador to the United Nations also helped build the case to invade the country in 2003. Research fellow Brendan Thomas-Noone spoke to London's Telegraph about the new appointment. READ MORE HERE.
   
• The United States will expel 60 Russian diplomats, joining governments across Europe in punishing the Kremlin for a nerve agent attack on a former Russian spy in Britain. British Prime Minister Theresa May, welcoming the show of solidarity, said 18 countries had announced plans to expel Russian officials. Australia has confirmed it will expel two Russian diplomats identified as undeclared intelligence officers. READ MORE HERE.
   
• Marvel's Black Panther was finally knocked off the top of the US box office on Sunday after five weekends in the #1 position and more than US$1.237 billion in worldwide ticket sales. The Centre's visiting fellow Stephen Loosley wrote for The Australian last week about the movie's success and its significance for a new generation of African-American actors and filmmakers  READ MORE HERE.

We're only getting started

Stormy Daniels' attorney, Michael Avenatti
(CBS This Morning program)
26 March 2018

ANALYSIS

The midterms cometh

Dougal Robinson & Matilda Steward
Foreign Policy and Defence program

This year’s midterm elections will aggravate America’s partisan warfare and polarisation. The Democratic Party is currently narrowly favoured to retake the House of Representatives on 6 November. With that, a new cohort of Democrats would come to Congress in 2019, powered by the hard-line anti-Trump views of their base, motivated to derail Trump’s legislative agenda and presidency. 

A Democratic House majority would face considerable pressure from their base to immediately vote to impeach President Trump. Impeachment does not equal removal from office – a trial and guilty vote from a super-majority of two-thirds of the Senate is required for the latter, which remains highly unlikely because almost 20 Republican senators would have to vote to end the Trump presidency. Nonetheless, impeachment proceedings would set a tone of full-throated Democratic opposition to the president, create constant media distraction, and likely accentuate Trump’s erratic decision-making style.

Despite the Republican Party’s razor thin majority in the US Senate – 51 seats to 49 – the GOP is expected to retain the upper chamber. Senators up for re-election this year hold seats won in 2012, in an election cycle that comfortably re-elected Barack Obama and elevated several new Democratic senators in competitive and traditionally Republican states. This year’s highly uneven Senate map favours Republicans, who are defending just nine mostly safe seats and targeting 26 Democrats, 10 of whom represent states won by President Trump in 2016. In the event that Republicans hold the Senate and the House, they will continue to pursue core policy priorities, but remain internally divided between establishment and nationalist wings.

Campaign season will exacerbate America’s splintered politics. The Democrats are moving to the left, adopting many of the progressive priorities that helped Bernie Sanders win 43 per cent of votes in the 2016 primary against Clinton. Some progressive Democrats will launch primary challenges against incumbents in the coming months who, if elected to Congress, will continue to pull the party leftwards on other issues including the minimum wage, reproductive rights and military spending.

Meanwhile, the Republican Party is being remade in President Trump’s image. Since the 2016 election, few congressional Republicans have been prepared to enunciate the benefits of multilateral free trade or immigration. Whereas Republicans were vocal in their criticism of the ballooning national debt under Obama, the Republican majority in the 115th Congress has voted for multiple bills that would push up the debt by over a trillion dollars.

House leaders Paul Ryan and Nancy Pelosi already face a difficult task achieving compromises acceptable to their caucuses. As recent special elections in Alabama and Pennsylvania have illustrated, Republican and Democratic candidates are willing to run not just against the opposing candidate, but also against their own party leadership.

Consequently, Congress has limited capacity to reach bipartisan consensus and execute its most basic functions. It has not passed a defence budget on time since 2009, under presidents and congresses of varying partisan compositions. The US military has been operating on a series of Continuing Resolutions that give senior leaders no certainty over funding, leaving them hamstrung in their ability to make long-term strategic decisions. And there is little indication that Congress has the political will to re-enter the Trans-Pacific Partnership, leaving the Trump administration’s ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ concept without an economic plank.

The midterms will all but guarantee that Washington remains dysfunctional and distracted through the remainder of Trump’s first term. 

You can read Dougal Robinson and Matilda Steward's full research brief, Australia and the 2018 Midterm Elections: A primer, here.

DIARY

The week ahead

• Wednesday, 28 March: US Commerce Department releases final estimate of 4th quarter GDP.
   

• Wednesday, 28 March: Last sitting day of the Australian House of Representatives and Senate before the 2018 Budget.
   

• Thursday, 29 March: The 2018 Major League Baseball season begins.
   

• Monday, 2 April: Annual White House Easter Egg Roll.

EVENT

Violent crime in the United States: Focus, prevention and legitimacy

VIDEO

Parkland shooting survivor Emma Gonzalez's March for Our Lives speech

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

#OmnibusSpendingBill

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University of Sydney NSW 2006

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