Research Theme I: The low carbon emissions economy
Carbon markets at a tipping point
March 25, 2013. The world’s carbon markets are at a tipping point, finds the Thomson Reuters Point Carbon annual survey of market participants and observers. The report – Carbon 2013
– reveals that the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, the world’s largest carbon market, is deeply challenged by an oversupply of credits that have been causing prices to fall. And while nearly half of all 2000-plus respondents view the EU ETS as the most cost-efficient way to reduce emissions, less than a third see the market as mature. The long-term outlook for the EU ETS, however, is positive. The majority of the survey’s participants believe it is likely that EU politicians will adopt reforms and eventually increase the scope and size of the carbon market. Outside the EU, the outlook for nascent carbon markets is optimistic. The Western Climate Initiative (WCI), a multi-jurisdictional partnership designed to take cooperative actions to address climate change, is stimulating action. In California, 60 percent of respondents who have a compliance obligation under the WCI market
said they have set up trading operations, and 53 percent said they have implemented internal emissions reductions strategies. Over half of the participants consider the price of carbon to be a decisive factor in investment decisions, with the majority of respondents expecting a California Carbon Allowance to be between $10-15/t in 2013.
Of the other WCI partners, Quebec has announced it will be moving ahead with taking the necessary steps to formally link its emissions-trading program with California. Washington State
has just passed a bill to investigate best practices for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, where a carbon market approach will undoubtedly be a consideration. British Columbia’s
Greenhouse Gas Reduction (Cap and Trade) Act, provides the statutory basis for setting up a market-based cap and trade framework to reduce GHG emissions from large emitters operating in the province. British Columbia (BC) has been in discussions for several years with the WCI partners after being the first Canadian province to authorize hard caps on GHGs. BC’s direct participation in the cap and trade component of the WCI was put on hold in early 2012. The Province is currently monitoring the performance of the WCI cap-and-trade program and depending on progress, has reserved the right to join the program in future.
Research Theme II: Sustainable communities
Time to retrofit for climate change
March 25, 2013. A recent report on adaptation from two universities
in the UK points to the need to update public buildings and infrastructure to adjust for a changing climate. The article identifies three “new challenges” posed by climate change: that climate change risk is no longer a constant (referring to weather extremes), that anticipatory rather than reactive actions are needed to deal with the scale and speed of potential impacts, and thirdly that adaptation is difficult when we don’t know the state of the future climate. The report recommends that new infrastructure such as schools, hospitals or roads are built to be “climate proof” and able to withstand extreme events such as flooding or drought for the project’s expected lifespan. Also, retrofitting to improve climatic resilience should be included in the routine maintenance or renovation of existing structures.
Parts of BC are extremely vulnerable to sea level rise and infrastructural development continues in sections of the province that are at, or below sea level. It has been suggested that shoreline or coastal floodplain infrastructural projects with a 40-year lifespan should take into consideration a 0.5 metre rise in sea level. In 2011 the BC Ministry of Environment published land use adaptation guidelines
that aim to help local governments, land-use managers, and government officers account for coastal flooding hazards and sea level rise in their planning and decision-making. Additionally, MEOPAR, a marine environmental observation prediction and response network, is working to connect government, NGOs, and the private sector with current research and discussion around short and long term climate risks. The project will improve communication and collaboration and ultimately better prepare BC for ocean related disasters. Incorporation of flood-risk predictions should now be a prerequisite in planning infrastructural renovations and new capital construction in susceptible regions within the province.
Research Theme III: Resilient ecosystems
US introduces nation-wide Climate Adaptation Strategy - Canada has no counterpart
March 26, 2013. The US Fish and Wildlife Service released a nation-wide conservation framework last week: The National Fish, Wildlife and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy.
The Strategy has a straightforward goal: “to inspire, enable, and increase meaningful action that helps safeguard the nation’s natural resources in a changing climate.” There are nine guiding principles within the Strategy, including collaboration between governments and other organizations, using the best available science, and recognizing that urgent action must be taken in order to reduce the negative effects and capitalize on the potential benefits of climate change. The Strategy outlines seven general steps for implementation by managers and institutions. These goals include conserving and connecting habitat, increasing awareness and motivating action, and reducing non-climate stressors. The Strategy is not a ‘how-to’ guide, but an overarching resource to put multiple governments and agencies on the same track to conservation and adaptation in the
United States.
Canada has no comparable strategy that addresses adaptation to climate change on a nation-wide level, which may be another indication of the apparent contrast between the two countries in development of climate action policies. On a provincial scale, the BC government recently released a less encompassing draft five-year plan
addressing vulnerable species, which shares many of the same underlying messages as the US Strategy. The BC publication advocates taking immediate action and acting in collaboration while managing at landscape scales, but climate change is hardly mentioned at all. The effects of climate change are only considered as part of the ‘scientific information’ used to guide recovery planning, and are regarded as less important than habitat connectivity and conservation. Overall, the draft plan has been criticized
as a “visually dazzling document that is hollow at its centre,” lacking in specifics and clarity. Commenting on the draft plan is open until April 12, less than one month for input after the draft was published.
Research Theme IV: Social mobilization
Do you suffer from opinion bias when it comes to climate change?
March 26th, 2013.
A new study that looks into opinion bias when it comes to the topic of climate change has found that your opinion might not be as common as you think. The study, published in Nature,
examines the ways that people perceive their own opinion in relation to others, and has some interesting findings. The study’s researchers examine two effects, the false consensus effect (or “a tendency to overestimate how common one’s ‘own’ opinion is”) and pluralistic ignorance (instances where “people privately reject an opinion, but assume incorrectly that most others accept it”), and specifically look into how these effects relate to people’s bias around climate change. The study finds that that when it comes to opinions on climate change, people are impacted by a false consensus effect, which causes them to greatly overestimate the number of people who deny the existence of climate change. The study further finds that people experiencing this effect are less likely to change their opinions on the subject.
In British Columbia, it is not clear how common false consensus bias is amongst those who don’t adhere to the scientific community’s findings on climate change. In a December 2012 poll conducted by Environics Institute, 1500 Canadians were asked about their opinions on climate science and only 12% indicated that they believe climate science is “not yet conclusive”. 52% of respondents felt that though climate science is “uncertain”, the country should take strong action in order to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
It would be interesting to conduct a study that examines the opinions of the 12% of Canadians who disagree with climate science, to determine how prevalent they believe their position is amongst the general public. Surprisingly, it appears that it isn’t denial of climate science that is causing the Conservative Government to fail to implement measures that would protect the climate and environment. When confronted during question period
in the House of Commons in February 2012, Joe Oliver, Minister of Natural Resources, answered that, “the science is clear that humans are causing global warming”. Perhaps false consensus bias is causing the federal government to believe that fewer Canadians want strong action on climate change than is actually the case. In the Environics poll discussed above, 59% of Canadians indicated they believe the government must implement standards that will reduce GHG emissions.
Research Theme V: Carbon management in BC forests
Growing zones of BC’s forests set to shift
February 28, 2012. Zones suitable for growing Douglas Fir and spruce forests in British Columbia are set to change dramatically, according
to new research. Scientists from the University of Victoria and the Canadian Forest Service recently completed a climate modeling study looking at how a changing climate can impact tree species suitability. An interdisciplinary team focused on integrating scientific methods with management approaches conducted the research. Integrating nine different global climate models and three different emissions scenarios, the researchers investigated how changes in temperature and precipitation might impact trees. All of their projections indicated that a rapid shift in species range is likely. The latitude and elevation of both Douglas Fir and spruce forests is set to expand, although the extent of expansion is uncertain. They also found that temperature, not precipitation, was more likely to influence tree suitability.
Managing BC’s forests in a changing climate will require robust modeling that encompasses a variety of climate scenarios. It is not enough to recognize that the earth is warming and that weather patterns are shifting – land managers need to know what it is they should do. Knowing that growing zones are shifting, foresters can replant a better mix of species. And knowing that increased temperatures will make new species viable at higher elevations and latitudes can prompt management decisions that future-proof our forests. However determining exactly what ‘viable’ means will remain a challenge. Under the range of feasible scenarios huge swathes of the province shift from being suitable to not suitable. Future proofing becomes an exercise in informed guesswork. But it is nevertheless important, as the lifecycles of forests demand that we plan for a climate beyond 2050
that will almost surely be different.
Also in the news
Department of Energy launches new clean energy manufacturing initiative
Google embraces renewables for energy efficiency
Properly planned roads could help rather than harm the environment, say experts
Chevron, green groups agree set standards for shale gas
TEEB for business releases report on organizational change for natural capital management
Reef-building corals lose out to softer cousins due warming
Comparing the effectiveness of monetary versus moral motives in environmental campaigning
Catchment productivity controls CO2 emissions from lakes
Elevated carbon dioxide in atmosphere trims wheat, sorghum moisture needs
German village offers blueprint for rural green energy
After die-off, forests hold tight to carbon
