No images? Click here 6 OctoberTaiwan challenges Biden, but Congress is the immediate threatThe Biden presidency entered a new, critical phase this week, but perhaps not for the reasons you think. International media focussed on China’s incursions into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone – reaching new levels of scale and frequency. The official US response was swift and stern, but below the level of attribution to any senior official; the Pentagon said the United States is "concerned" by China's "provocative military activity" around Taiwan, which "is destabilizing, risks miscalculations, and undermines regional peace and stability." Taiwan's foreign minister, in turn, highlighted hopes for further engagement with "like-minded partners, Australia included". Yet, the abundance of domestic political trials poses a bigger and more immediate challenge for the Biden presidency. His landmark infrastructure proposals have stalled in Congress for months, reflecting both Republican opposition and division within the razor-thin Democratic majority in the House of Representatives and the “zero vote” Democratic majority in the Senate. Congress recently returned from summer recess, but plans to push these bills forward remain halted. Any compromise needs the votes of all 50 Democratic senators, with Senator Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia) insisting on a maximum price tag of US$1.5 trillion over 10 years (progressives want US$3.5 trillion). Should no compromise be found or if the package falls far short of expectations, Biden’s authority and prestige as president will be savaged and his “Build Back Better” campaign aspirations destroyed. Furthermore, the balance of his presidency will likely be one of meekly “muddling through” rather than “transformational”, and the Democrats will be politically hobbled heading into the 2022 midterms. President Biden is on the road this week, campaigning around the country to unite his party, pressure Democratic moderates and temper the pent-up ambitions of progressives. Quite simply, steering these next few weeks are the biggest political test of Biden’s presidency and Biden’s long political career. Professor Simon Jackman WEBINAR | 7 OctoberThe future of US politics: A conversation with the Brookings Institution's Sarah Binder and Thomas MannDuring the 2020 presidential campaign, then-candidate Joe Biden famously predicted that a loss by President Trump in the November 2020 election would force Republicans to have an “epiphany” and turn away from Trump. But has the Democrat-projected epiphany occurred? Can Biden’s track record for bipartisanship change the course of polarisation? What are the implications for Australia if the US political divide worsens? To discuss these issues, please join the United States Studies Centre (USSC) for a webinar featuring Sarah Binder and Thomas Mann, Senior Fellows in Governance Studies at The Brookings Institution in conversation with USSC Non-Resident Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe. WHEN: COST: You can also subscribe to have event invitations and reminders sent straight to your inbox, so you never have to miss an event! NEWS WRAPHave Democrats burned bridges?
It is increasingly clear that China’s plans do not include meaningful reforms to address the concerns that have been shared by the U.S. and many other countries. The United States Trade Representative (USTR) develops and coordinates US international trade policy, oversees the enforcement of trade agreements, and is the national spokesperson on trade issues, including commodity and direct investment policy. What has she done?
This is an excerpt from a USSC brief published earlier this year, Key players in the Biden administration. BY THE NUMBERSTragic milestone: 700,000 COVID-19 deaths Sarah Hamilton The United States reached yet another sombre milestone - surpassing 700,000 COVID-19 deaths this week. With ample vaccines available for most of the year, the 100,000 deaths since June 2021 are lamented by one epidemiologist as "tragic and completely avoidable". One in 35 Americans over the age of 85 have died of COVID, accounting for 28 per cent of the total number of US deaths. Twenty seven per cent of COVID deaths have been among people 75-84 and 22.5 per cent were of people aged between 65 to 74. While the virus has proved far deadlier for the elderly, 1,743 of those aged between 0 to 24 years old and 6,197 of those aged 25 to 34 have died. THE ALLIANCE AT 70 | TOGETHER FOR ANOTHER 70The following is an excerpt from the contribution by His Excellency the Honourable Arthur Sinodinos AO for the soon-to-be-released USSC book: The Alliance at 70 There are those in Australia and abroad who criticise our Alliance with the United States as needlessly exposing us to risks or overseas interventions. It would have been tempting for Australia to eschew formal commitments in the expectation that the United States would always come to our aid in extremis. But that is not the Australian way. We take our fair share of responsibility for our defence and security but recognise that we are stronger together in pursuit of shared values and interests. The ability to share information, operate interchangeably and coordinate activities provides security benefits that we could not hope to replicate on our own. With the United States, we also embraced erstwhile adversaries in this endeavour. Notwithstanding lingering anti-Japanese sentiment on the part of some Australians, the Australian Government entered into the Agreement on Commerce with Japan in 1957. That took political courage but paved the way for a partnership between Australia and Japan that continues to grow in strategic value for both countries and the region. The network of American alliances in Europe and Asia is a unique advantage that further enhances the value of ANZUS to Australia. The 9/11 attacks in 2001 ushered in the global War on Terror. Australia’s Prime Minister, John Howard, famously invoked the Treaty in response to those attacks. We were not alone; NATO and the Organization of the American States also invoked their treaty obligations in support of the United States. John Howard was in Washington DC when the attacks occurred. He saw up close the impact on the American people. He understood that this was an attack on all of us, an attack on the open society and secular, democratic norms. Today the number one geopolitical issue is the rise of China. That rise is good news for the world. A strong and prosperous China that has lifted so many of its citizens out of poverty is in everyone’s interest. China has benefited from rules that promote international trade and investment, including the World Trade Organization. As China has grown, it has become more assertive in prosecuting its national aspirations and testing the global rules-based order. As Allies, we seek to persuade China that its interest is better served by playing a constructive role in that order. It is a strong near-peer competitor to the United States in economics and trade, critical and emerging technologies, and defence and security. There are areas of cooperation including climate change, nuclear matters and the pandemic. But human rights abuses in Xinjiang and the treatment of Hong Kong and Taiwan are being called out. President Biden speaks of the struggle between democracy and autocracy to shape the world order over the next decade. The ANZUS Treaty is more relevant than ever. Australia and the United States have enduring values and interests that bind us ever closer together. Here’s to the next 70 years. VIDEOSky News Interview: Infrastructure bill ‘single biggest moment’ for Biden’s presidencyUnited States Studies Centre CEO Simon Jackman spoke to Sky News on Monday to discuss Biden's infrastructure ambitions. The infrastructure bill, Simon said, would be the "single biggest moment for Biden's presidency." Catch more analysis on the United States on the USSC YouTube channel. Manage your email preferences | Forward this email to a friend United States Studies Centre |