27 FEBRUARY

The Trump and Kim Show

US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will today embark on their second summit, this time in Hanoi, Vietnam. Singapore hosted the first Trump-Kim summit in June 2018 where the leaders signed an agreement that committed the two countries to continue working toward denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula. There were no explicit obligations by North Korea to actually disarm.

Former Pentagon official and advisor to the Obama White House on North Korea, Dr Van Jackson, was interviewed in the latest 2020Vision podcast. He previewed the second summit and detailed how close the United States came to nuclear war in 2017. LISTEN HERE.

NEWS WRAP

New polling on Russia investigation

• Nearly half of Americans believe there was cooperation between the Trump campaign and Russia. Of these, 94 per cent believe Trump will not get a second term. That's according to a new USSC-YouGov poll which looked at US and Australian public opinion on whether the Trump campaign had worked with agents of the Russian government to gain an advantage during the presidential election and the expected length of Trump's term as president. READ MORE HERE.
   
• The US military reportedly launched a cyberattack on a Russian troll factory during the 2018 midterm elections. The Washington Post reported Tuesday that the Department of the Defense's Cyber Command attempted to interrupt the Internet Research Agency's (IRA) attempts to meddle in the midterms by disrupting its internet access and crippling its online operations. The IRA is a notorious Kremlin-linked Russian troll farm. READ MORE HERE.
   
• The Democratic Party is attracting a huge field for the 2020 race, with at least 10 major candidates already declared and undoubtedly more to enter in the coming months. Honorary associate Nicole Hemmer, writing for The Age this week, suggests that despite the diverse slate of candidates, they are relatively united in their vision for the future: one in which the US federal government plays a much larger role in the economy. READ MORE HERE.
   
• Republican Senator Thom Tillis says he will vote in favour of a resolution against President Trump's national emergency declaration. The North Carolinian wrote Monday in a Washington Post op-ed that he supports Trump’s vision on border security, but would vote against the emergency because he cannot justify providing the executive with more ways to bypass Congress. The Democratic-controlled House passed legislation Tuesday to block the declaration, 245-182 (including 13 Republicans), with Democrats voting unanimously to send the measure to the GOP-led Senate. READ MORE HERE. 
   
• President Trump's convicted former lawyer Michael Cohen begins his testimony to Congress today, where he is expected to accuse the president of criminal conduct while in office. The Wall Street Journal reports that the accusations relate to hush-money paid to an adult film star. Cohen was convicted last year by New York federal prosecutors of campaign finance violations and tax evasion, and by Special Counsel Robert Mueller of lying to Congress about Trump Organization plans in Moscow. READ MORE HERE.
   
• Australia is not alone in experiencing subdued wages growth in recent years. There has been a long-running debate in the United States about the relationship between wages and productivity growth that pre-dates the 2008 financial crisis and is linked to debates over income inequality that have informed populist politics on both the left and the right. In a column for the Australian Financial Review today, director of the Centre's Trade and Investment Program Stephen Kirchner notes that US research points to a number of considerations that have been missing from the Australian debate and which offer explanations for the local wages "puzzle". READ MORE HERE.

I don’t want this to be a fool’s errand. I want to make sure if we do this — and we’re getting very close to getting to a decision — that I am fully prepared to do it.

Former US Vice President Joe Biden on whether he'll run for president in 2020
(University of Delaware Q&A)
26 February 2019

ANALYSIS

USSC experts weigh in on the second Trump-Kim summit

Dr Charles Edel, Senior Fellow: "Just as with their first meeting in Singapore last June, this meeting will likely be long on optics and short on specifics. Both Kim and Trump are likely to claim credit for a successful meeting regardless of what the meeting did or did not actually produce. The success or failure of such a meeting, however, depends on more than just these two heads of state. China and South Korea will play a large role in shaping the diplomatic process, and Japan is likely to endure significant strategic consequences as the result of any outcome. Focusing too closely on the spectacle of another Trump-Kim summit also obscures larger questions about America’s future on the Korean Peninsula and, more broadly, the stability of Northeast Asia. For Australia, these are the larger issues at stake."

Dr Gorana Grgic, Lecturer in US Politics and Foreign Policy: "It appears the DPRK benefits more from these talks — both in terms of the legitimacy it’s given, as well as tangible concessions. In that vein, the reports that we might be in for a surprise with the announcement of a formal end to the Korean War is a bargaining chip that should not be offered lightly. Moreover, the issue of how each side understands denuclearisation has not gone away since the United States speaks only in terms of elimination of the North Korean nuclear program, while the DPRK wants to see the United States withdraw its nuclear umbrella from the region. As with the first summit and given the fickleness of these negotiations, we should have managed expectations."

Dr John Lee, Non-Resident Senior Fellow: "The current state of play is as follows: North Korea has not taken any meaningful steps towards denuclearisation and continues to maintain and develop its nuclear-capable missile facilities. Pyongyang refuses to do any different until the United States declares the formal end of hostilities in the form of a peace treaty with North Korea. Pyongyang also wants the United States to relax United Nations Security Council and unilateral sanctions as the beginning point to meaningful concessions. For the United States, the sequencing must be the reverse of what Pyongyang is demanding. The Vietnam Summit is largely about whether the two sides can agree on sequencing. It is also an opportunity for Trump to ascertain the extent to which economic development matters to Kim, and whether the carrot of economic assistance can force Kim to compromise on sequencing."

Brendan Thomas-Noone, Research Fellow: "The summit could lead to an historic announcement of an official end to the Korean War. A peace deal would deliver a long sought after goal for the North Koreans and provide a big political win for President Trump; particularly as a message he can sell to his base back home. But there is a looming danger: a diminished US military presence in the region might be the outcome of talks. North Korea has attained its ultimate security blanket in the form of a triple threat: a nuclear-tipped ICBM that threatens the US homeland; a US president who may be willing to trade concessions for headlines; and a progressive regime in South Korea that is naturally sceptical of the US alliance and seeks ever closer economic engagement with Pyongyang. One thing is looking increasingly certain, a nuclear North Korea is here to stay."

Ashley Townshend, Foreign Policy and Defence Program Director: "Both sides have made it abundantly clear that the space for real negotiations is wafer thin. Kim Jong-un – while refraining from nuclear and missile testing, and partially dismantling elements of his nuclear program – still wants major sanctions relief, a drawdown of US forces in South Korea, and an end to the US nuclear umbrella on the Korean Peninsula in return for denuclearisation. Donald Trump seems willing to grant some concessions. These would ideally include a halt to fissile material or weapons production, and a partial closure of the Yongbyon nuclear facility. But many in his administration appear fixated on unilateral disarmament as the focus of negotiations. This won’t work. If there’s any chance of progress, both leaders will need to build trust and make real concessions. Trump has several bargaining chips, such as the conditional lifting of some sanctions, and a declaration to formally end the Korean War. If US negotiators can use these to edge along verifiable progress on limiting and containing North Korea’s arsenal, minor breakthroughs might be possible. This requires Washington to accept Pyongyang’s hard-won nuclear status, but it would be in the interest of stability for the entire region."

DIARY

The week ahead

• Wednesday, 27 February: President Trump’s former personal attorney Michael Cohen will appear before the House Oversight Committee for a public hearing.
   

• 27-28 February: President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un hold second summit, this time in Hanoi, Vietnam.
   

• Thursday, 28 February: US Senate Armed Services Committee hearing to examine nuclear policy and posture. 
   

• Thursday, 28 February: US House Energy and Commerce Committee hearing on climate change inaction and Paris Agreement.

EVENT

Income inequality: How to tackle wage woes in Australia and the United States

VIDEO

Trump says he doesn't know about his administration's push to decriminalise homosexuality globally

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

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