18 JULY

Damage control

In a rare reversal, President Donald Trump has corrected comments he made during Monday's Helsinki press conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin, amid rising rebuke by Republicans and Democrats. Trump claims he now misspoke when he said he saw no reason why Russia would interfere in the 2016 US presidential election.

"I accept our intelligence community's conclusion that Russia's meddling in the 2016 election took place," Trump said in a White House press conference Tuesday. But in a sign he still doubted those findings, added: "It could be other people also. A lot of people out there. There was no collusion at all."

Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said he wasn't buying Trump's correction. "President Trump tried to squirm away from what he said yesterday. It's 24-hours late and in the wrong place," he said. "If the president can't say directly to President Putin that he is wrong and we are right and our intelligence agencies are right, it's ineffective and, worse, another sign of weakness."

The day before Trump's Helsinki comments, he had blamed the United States for sour relations with Russia and criticised the FBI, Democrats, Hillary Clinton and the special counsel's Russia investigation.

NEWS WRAP

A 'disgraceful' performance

• There was an assumption President Trump would be forced to confront the allegations that Russia meddled in the 2016 election during the Helsinki Summit press conference, but few thought it would play out quite like this. US foreign policy lecturer Gorana Grgic joined ABC's RN podcast 'Russia, if you're listening' on Tuesday to give her thoughts on the astonishing press conference. LISTEN HERE.
   

• Ailing Republican Senator John McCain called it “one of the most disgraceful performances by an American president in memory” and other GOP congressmen issued widespread denunciations of Trump's comments in Helsinki, but will it move votes in the American electorate? Research fellow Dougal Robinson writes in today's Sydney Morning Herald that it probably won't. READ MORE HERE.
   
• Trump's regard for authoritarian leaders is consistent with his systematic downgrading of the promotion of human rights and democracy, according to non-resident senior fellow Elsina Wainwright. Writing for The Strategist, she says Trump's Helsinki press conference is yet another major departure from previous US presidents, both Republican and Democrat. READ MORE HERE.
   
• Former US President Barack Obama mounted a passionate defence of democracy and warned against the rise of "strongman politics" in a speech in South Africa a day after Trump's Helsinki comments made headlines. In an address Tuesday in honour of the late Nelson Mandela ahead of the 100th anniversary of his birth, Obama criticised populist movements toward authoritarianism around the world and ridiculed the "utter loss of shame among political leaders" who lie. READ MORE HERE.
   
• Trump is unpicking America's position in Asia and there's not much that Defense Secretary Jim Mattis or the remaining "adults in the room" can do about it, according to the director of the Centre's Foreign Policy and Defence Program Ashley Townshend. He wrote for The Australian Financial Review last week on why he believes Trump is ripping up the Pacific status quo. READ MORE HERE.
   
• Washington is shifting its attention to strategic technology competition with Beijing – and expanding beyond the defence and military domains – according to research fellow Brendan Thomas-Noone. Writing for The Strategist this week, he notes that while long pushed in the Pentagon, other government branches like Congress, federal departments and even lobbyists are now advocating and investing in new technologies like quantum science and machine learning. READ MORE HERE.
   
• Senator John McCain's new memoir The Restless Wave, written by a staffer from his Senate ­office, covers much of his recent career and is compelling reading – at times deeply moving – according to non-resident fellow Stephen Loosley. He reviewed the book for The Weekend Australian. READ MORE HERE.

The role of the Intelligence Community is to provide the best information and facts-based assessments possible for the President and policymakers. We have been clear in our assessments of Russian meddling in the 2016 election and their ongoing, pervasive efforts to undermine our democracy, and we will continue to provide unvarnished and objective intelligence in support of our national security.

US Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats
(Statement)
16 July 2018

ANALYSIS

The road to Helsinki is paved with deriding allies

Gorana Grgic
Lecturer in US politics and foreign policy

As President Trump concluded his whirlwind visit to Europe, the dominant themes in the commentary of his trip include disbelief, outrage and concern. The president has yet again demonstrated that his foreign policy credo sees alliances as burdensome, long-standing special relationships with like-minded states as a relic of the past, and authoritarian regimes as legitimate and worthy of special summits.

No one was under any illusion that the 2018 NATO Summit would be a love fest after last year's failure by the president to declare his commitment to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, and particularly not after the way the most recent G7 summit ended. Yet, it was probably worse than most expected. Before even departing for Europe, the president signalled he was most looking forward to the last leg of the trip – his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom he deemed to be easier to deal with than European allies.

This statement perfectly foreshadowed what his week in Europe would look like. Shortly after landing in Brussels, the president went after the majority of NATO allies who have not been meeting the target of 2 per cent of GDP on defence spending, as was agreed at the 2014 NATO Summit in Wales. The meeting of NATO leaders proceeded with a sense of crisis in transatlantic relations, only to find resolution with President Trump’s announcement that they have all agreed to the new defence spending commitments and proclaiming great victory (which to date remains uncorroborated by the NATO allies).

President Trump’s criticism of Germany stood out the most, as he accused it of being “totally controlled by” and “a captive of Russia”. A lot has already been said about this being a somewhat failed attempt to deflect from the ongoing Russia probe. However, the substance of his verbal attack against Germany is indicative of the changing US policy in Europe.

Namely, President Trump is known to look at security alliances through the prism of trade balance. In that vein, Germany is ‘guilty’ of not spending more on defence and at the same time running a sizeable trade surplus with the United States. Playing into this is the issue of Germany’s energy imports and the ongoing (and controversial) Nord Stream 2 project that is meant to bring Russian gas to its shores via the pipelines laid in the Baltic Sea.

The Trump administration has been adamant about making Europe, particularly the east of the continent, the prime market for the US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. During last year’s trip to Europe, Trump told the leaders of the 12 Central and Eastern European states in Warsaw: “We are sitting on massive energy and we are now exporters of energy. So, if one of you need energy, just give us a call.” His remarks came after the first ever shipment of the US LNG to Eastern Europe and as the projects for building new LNG terminals in Southeast Europe are underway.

Since 2014, the Obama administration strongly argued for diversification of energy sources and LNG exports as a geopolitical instrument to offset Russia’s influence on the continent that is still highly dependent on Russian gas. On the other hand, the Trump administration sees energy exports mostly as a trade instrument that is conducive to the ‘America First’ agenda of trade deficit reduction and job creation at home. It is telling that the president did not mention some of the usual geopolitical concerns regarding the Nord Stream 2, which revolve around isolating Ukraine, as well as a number of Central and Eastern European states. The message this sends to allies and partners is unequivocal: you are safe as long as it fits the US bottom line.

DIARY

The week ahead

• Wednesday 17 July: Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs Senator Penny Wong will address the United States Studies Centre on 'America in Asia: An Australian perspective', at the University of Sydney from 5.30pm.
   

• Thursday, 18 July: An interview with President Trump will air on CBS Evening News.
   

• June 23-24: Australia-US Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN) at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University in Palo Alto, California.
   

• Tuesday, 24 July: Former White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer will release his memoir, 'The Briefing'.

EVENT

Advanced film screening of BlacKkKlansman

VIDEO

President Trump takes tea with the queen

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

#Helsinki

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