25 SEPTEMBER

Impeachment 101

After three years and countless calls for her to do so, it wasn't Robert Mueller or the Russia investigation that forced House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to kick off an impeachment investigation into President Trump, as many had expected.

It took an alleged conversation between Trump and the Ukrainian president about former Vice President Joe Biden's son, the possible withholding of military aid, and an intelligence whistleblower to finally encourage Pelosi that the Democratic Party had no other choice.

The president, in New York at the United Nations, issued a defiant response on Twitter: “PRESIDENTIAL HARASSMENT!” 

So, what now?

Senior Advisor Jared Mondschein joined the 2020Vision podcast this morning to discuss the allegations, the next steps for Democrats in the impeachment process, and what finally convinced Speaker Pelosi to pursue a course of action she had resisted for so long. Listen here.

For more on the history, process and prospect of a Trump impeachment, United States Studies Centre CEO Simon Jackman produced a comprehensive guide to impeachment in 2017, available on the USSC website here.

NEWS WRAP

A reassuring visit for US hosts

• Scott Morrison departs Washington with Australia's credentials as an ally and partner of the United States stronger than ever, writes Simon Jackman in his wrap of the PM's visit for The Australian Financial Review. But there are still some big questions confronting the US-Australia relationship that remain unanswered, he notes. READ MORE HERE.
   

• Morrison and Trump subtly changed the economic conversation with ­respect to China during the PM's visit, according to Senior Fellow John Lee. In his column for The Australian, he suggests that the change in emphasis from America as the provocateur to China as the true disrupter is helpful – it is also justified and overdue. READ MORE HERE.
   
• As President Trump dealt with an international focus on climate change at the United Nations this week, his domestic agenda remained fixed on the controversy over his political attack on Democratic rival Joe Biden. Senior Lecturer David Smith joined the ABC's PM program for their story on the latest controversy and why Democrats felt forced into pursing impeachment. LISTEN HERE.
   
• Director of the USSC's Trade and Investment Program Stephen Kirchner has joined The Guardian Australia's new economic panel of experts, alongside Per Capita's Emma Dawson and Grattan's Brendan Coates. In their first outing, they speak to Greg Jericho about how the Australian government and Reserve Bank should respond to the slowing economy, including the use of quantitative easing (QE). Stephen's research on lessons from the use of QE in the United States was released in June. READ MORE HERE.
   
• Robert A. Caro reshaped the concept and reality of political biography. In The Australian Financial Review last week, Senior Fellow Stephen Loosley took a look at the story behind Caro's epic biographical work of the 36th US president Lyndon B. Johnson (or LBJ), as well as his new memoir entitled Working: Researching, Interviewing, Writing. READ MORE HERE.

I'll tell you, I know him well, he’s not going anywhere.

President Trump defends PM Boris Johnson following UK Supreme Court decision
(Joint press conference on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York)
24 September 2019

The impeachment process: at a glance

Simon Jackman
CEO, United States Studies Centre

1. Impeachment is not the same as removing the US president. A majority vote of the House of Representatives is required to impeach a president. But impeachment is only a first step towards removal from office. After impeachment, a trial in the Senate and guilty votes from a super-majority of two-thirds of the Senate is needed to convict and remove a president from office.
    
2. Impeachment is a political process, albeit with legal overtones. Critically, criminal acts are neither necessary nor sufficient for impeachment and conviction of a president.
    
3. No president has been convicted and removed from office. Just two presidents have been impeached by the House. Examination of the Nixon and Clinton impeachment proceedings highlight the intensely political nature of impeachments. Nixon resigned before the House of Representatives voted on impeachment. Clinton is just one of two presidents to be impeached and tried by the Senate; the other was Andrew Johnson (1868), whose trial in the Senate concluded with an acquittal, just one vote short of the two-thirds majority required for conviction. Neither Clinton nor Johnson were convicted. Resignation or death remain the only ways US presidents have left office prior to electoral defeat or term limits.
    
4. Divided government was an essential element of the Nixon and Clinton impeachment proceedings. Nixon, a Republican president, faced impeachment and trial with Democratic majorities in both the House and Senate. Nixon resigned in the face of crumbling support within his own party, making impeachment and conviction all but assured. Conversely, Clinton was impeached with Republican majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate, but with near universal opposition to impeachment among Democratic House members. No Democratic senator voted for Clinton’s conviction in the Senate.
    
5. Public opinion remained firmly behind Clinton through 1998 as the Lewinsky scandal became public, Kenneth Starr completed and published his salacious report on Clinton’s wrongdoing, and the House impeached Clinton. Clinton went into his Senate trial with approval ratings in the high 60s. In contrast, support for Nixon crumbled over 1973 as aides resigned or were fired in an attempt to insulate the president, the Senate held sensational, televised hearings into the Watergate matter and Nixon unsuccessfully attempted to end the Watergate investigation (the “Saturday Night Massacre” of October 1973). Nixon started 1973 with approval ratings in the high 60s and ended the year with the House Judiciary Committee conducting an impeachment investigation, his approval ratings in the 20s — where they would remain until his resignation in August 1974. Clinton could thus stare down impeachment and trial in the Senate. Nixon could not.
    
6. Critically, Trump’s support among Republican partisans remains extremely high, close to Democratic levels of support for Clinton through his impeachment and Senate trial.
    
7. The current configuration of American political institutions — a Republican president and Republican majority in the Senate — suggest it is extremely unlikely that President Trump will be convicted in the Senate, even if the House votes to impeach.

Read Simon Jackman's full Impeachment 101 report here.

DIARY

The week ahead

• Wednesday, 25 September: US House Committee on Energy and Commerce will hold a hearing on the public health threats of e-cigarettes.
   

• Thursday, 26 September: President Trump will return to Washington, DC from the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
   

• Thursday, 26 September: US Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearings to examine the Hong Kong emergency, focusing on "securing freedom, autonomy, and human rights".

EVENT

Campaigns, populism and electoral politics in the West

VIDEO

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announces formal impeachment inquiry

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

#impeachment

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University of Sydney NSW 2006

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