3 OCTOBER

One year on, what's changed since the deadliest shooting in modern US history?

Monday marked one year since 58 people were killed and 869 country music concertgoers were injured by a gunman on the 32nd floor of the Mandalay Bay resort in Las Vegas. The US Congress has not enacted significant gun control measures since the shooting, with survivors and activists instead shifting focus to state legislatures.

The gunman in the shooting was armed with 23 AR-style weapons, 14 of them fitted with “bump stocks” that allowed them to mimic fully automatic fire. President Donald Trump expressed support for banning the devices and directed the Justice Department to rewrite the federal regulations. 

The US Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives earlier this year sought public comment on a proposal to reclassify bump stocks, but no action has since been taken by Congress. Ten states and three cities have enacted bans on the devices. California made bump stock-style devices illegal there decades ago. Gun dealers said very few of the devices were sold before the Las Vegas shooting, but demand soared afterward amid concern they might be banned.

A detailed explainer on why the United States has not enacted Australian-style gun control is available on our website, here.

NEWS WRAP

Kavanaugh investigation could wrap today

• The FBI is expected to wrap up its time-limited probe of the sexual misconduct allegations against President Trump's Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh as soon as Wednesday (US time). Christine Blasey Ford's attorneys on Tuesday implored the FBI to interview her and act on investigative leads they provided for its inquiry. "It is inconceivable that the FBI could conduct a thorough investigation of Dr Ford’s allegations without interviewing her, Judge Kavanaugh, or the witnesses we have identified in our letters to you," they wrote to FBI officials. READ MORE HERE.
   

• The Trump administration began denying visas to same-sex partners of foreign diplomats and United Nations employees on Monday, and requiring those already in the United States to get married by the end of the year or leave the country. Critics says the new policy will impose undue hardships on foreign couples from countries that criminalise same-sex marriages. READ MORE HERE.
   
• A New York Times investigation published overnight alleges President Trump participated in dubious tax schemes during the 1990s, including instances of outright fraud, that greatly increased the fortune he received from his parents. Trump won the presidency proclaiming himself a self-made billionaire, and has long insisted that his father – legendary New York City builder Fred C. Trump – provided almost no financial help. READ MORE HERE.
   
• Canadians awoke on Monday to the news of a new trade deal with the United States and a reprieve from the threat of crippling auto tariffs that President Trump had been holding over the country for months. However, the agreement does not eliminate the steep tariffs on steel and aluminium that Trump imposed earlier this year. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his country would continue to negotiate for their removal. READ MORE HERE.
   
• As the United States and China escalate their trade war, the costs of rising tariff protection loom increasingly large for the world economy. But these costs are just the start of the economic fallout, according to USSC Trade and Investment program director Stephen Kirchner. He wrote for The Australian Financial Review on how economic uncertainty generated by an open-ended trade war is also weighing on cross-border investment. READ MORE HERE.
   

• Were Russian trolls behind Star Wars: The Last Jedi's negative buzz? An academic paper from the University of Southern California has found evidence of "deliberate, organised political influence measures disguised as fan arguments" about last year's Star Wars film. According to the researcher: “The likely objective of these measures is increasing media coverage of the fandom conflict, thereby adding to and further propagating a narrative of widespread discord and dysfunction in American society." READ MORE HERE.

I’m done hiding this from myself and from the world... When I wrote in my book that I was lucky to not have PTSD, I was just trying to convince myself. And I wasn’t sharing the full picture. I still have nightmares. I am depressed.

Former Army intelligence officer and Democratic Party rising star Jason Kander announces he's pulling out of the race for mayor of Kansas City in a letter posted online.
2 October 2018

ANALYSIS

Republicans' Supreme goal within reach

Bruce Wolpe
Visiting fellow

A week in politics can feel like a lifetime – and last week was no exception. The fierce urgency of Dr Christine Blasey Ford’s testimony to the Senate; the vehemence of Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s denials; the issues of sexual violence, recognition and acknowledgment, justice, and #MeToo. 

Can Kavanagh get to 51 votes in a Senate with precisely 51 Republicans? There are two Republican women – not on the Senate Judiciary Committee – whose votes are not declared: Murkowski of Alaska and Collins of Maine. There are reports of intense constituency pressures on both senators from voters at home, and not only on issues like Roe v. Wade. Together with Senator Jeff Flake they had complete leverage on whether Kavanaugh would get to a final vote this week – no matter what Trump and McConnell wanted. So, it was either do the FBI investigation, or face a defeat. That power of two will hold until a final vote is taken.

The objective of cementing a conservative majority on the Supreme Court – a bedrock Republican goal for more than 40 years – is, with Kavanaugh, both within reach and further away than when he was nominated by Trump. On a day of the rawest, ugliest partisan divisiveness, what came through loud and clear was Kavanaugh’s blistering attack on the Democrats: "This whole two-week effort has been a calculated and orchestrated political hit, fuelled with apparent pent-up anger about President Trump and the 2016 election, fear that has been unfairly stoked about my judicial record, revenge on behalf of the Clintons and millions of dollars in money from outside left-wing opposition groups.” 

Longtime Supreme Court observers have never seen such a partisan posture before in a nominee. Notwithstanding Kavanaugh’s vaunted legal experience – which certainly qualifies him to sit on the Court – issues of temperament and character are now in the forefront of weighing whether the Senate should consent to this nomination, and they are no less important to reaching a final judgement.

What kind of Republican is Kavanaugh? His pedigree is George W. Bush. Team Bush extended the warmest accolades when he was nominated. But it is now clear that Kavanaugh, like most of the Republican Party, has devolved into becoming a Trump Republican, and has embraced the Trump playbook on character issues. From Bob Woodward’s FEAR: Inside The Trump White House, from a source quoting Trump’s words: “You’ve got to deny, deny, deny, and push back on these women. If you admit to anything, and any culpability – you’re dead… You’ve got to deny anything that’s said about you. Never admit.” 

The White House was reportedly in despair after Dr Ford’s testimony in the committee, and feared Kavanaugh would have to be withdrawn. But Trump could not have been happier after Kavanaugh’s wielding the sword of the Trump doctrine of denial, and what it did to resurrect his nomination.

As a cautionary tale: be careful of who you endorse for the Senate. In Alabama, Trump was not satisfied with Luther Strange, who was appointed to the Senate seat vacated by Jeff Sessions, when Sessions became Attorney General. In the 2017 special election to properly fill the seat, Strange was challenged by Roy Moore, a Trump firebrand. Trump went with Moore over the incumbent Strange. As the campaign progressed, Moore was accused of intimacies with teenage girls – serious charges that irreparably damaged his campaign. 

In ruby-red Alabama, Moore was beaten by Democrat Doug Jones – an astonishing result. And that meant that Trump lost the chance to maintain a 52-48 Republican majority; it slipped to 51-49. This meant he lost the chance to win the vote on Kavanaugh – even if Collins and Murkowski voted “No”. That was a high price to pay for Trumpian loyalty.

Read Bruce Wolpe's weekly MidtermMatters blog every Monday morning at ussc.edu.au

DIARY

The week ahead

• 3-7 October: First Lady Melania Trump is on her first solo international trip, visiting Ghana, Kenya, Malawi and Egypt.
   

• Friday, 5 October: Nobel Peace Prize winner announced.
   

• 5-7 October: Final Senate vote expected on Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the US Supreme Court.
   

• Sunday, 7 October: US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is scheduled to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at a second summit focusing on next steps in denuclearisation.
   

• Sunday, 7 October: Brazil’s presidential elections.
   

• Monday, 8 October: Columbus Day national holiday in the United States.

EVENT

Australian AgTech: Opportunities and challenges as seen from a US venture capital perspective

VIDEO

President Trump to female reporter: You are not thinking, you never do

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

#KanyeWest

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