VIDEO

Thanksgiving with Ambassadors Culvahouse and Sinodinos

Did you miss our Thanksgiving webinar featuring US Ambassador to Australia Arthur B. Culvahouse Jr. and Australian Ambassador to the United States Arthur Sinodinos in conversation with USSC CEO Professor Simon Jackman? Watch the full discussion HERE.

Catch this and other recent webinars on the USSC YouTube channel!

NEWS WRAP

Dashing through December

• Formula 1 for vaccines | As the United States is gripped by the continuing surge of COVID-19 cases, Moderna will file for FDA clearance on Monday. This marks a tight race between Moderna, Pfizer and BioNTech for the US vaccines, with possible emergency use from mid to late December. READ MORE HERE
   
• Wolf warrior double down | The Wall Street Journal writes that the shocking fake tweet from China on Sunday may have been because the Australian wine tariffs announced on Friday did not provoke a strong enough reaction. The article quotes USSC's The future of the US-Australia alliance report by Charles Edel and John Lee to explain why the United States has a vested interest in Australia. READ MORE HERE
   
• Iran nuclear assassination | Top Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was assassinated this week and the timing is believed to be forced by the pending US presidential transition. A Biden administration is expected to pivot to revive the Iran Nuclear Deal and a more collaborative approach to the region. This assassination rounds out a year of covert attacks on Iran, including the US assassination of General Soleimani. READ MORE HERE
   
• To the victor go the polls | In the last six presidential elections, the election winner has received a favourability bump, including in 2020. New polling from Gallup shows Biden's ratings increased by six points to 55 per cent after the election and Trump's ratings declined by three to 42 per cent as Trump continues his legal challenges and as the deadline for the Electoral College looms. READ MORE HERE
   
• Pardon play | The US Department of Justice is investigating a potential cash-for-pardons scheme involving the White House. Un-redacted sections of documents unsealed in a DC District Court do not directly implicate the president. The news comes as the New York Times reports that President Trump has considered pre-emptively pardoning members of his family and his legal team. READ MORE HERE

VIRTUAL EVENT

US Politics Web Series this Friday

Please join the USSC and Perth USAsia Centre for the final edition of our 2020 monthly web series reviewing the latest in US politics with a focus on the recent US election and what this means for Australia.

This episode will be shortly before the Electoral College meets to officially elect the next president of the United States. In a year of turmoil and transition, there is a lot to discuss as we reflect on 2020 and turn our eyes to the year ahead.

WHEN:
Friday, 4 December 2020, 1pm AEDT (Sydney)
Friday, 4 December 2020, 10am AWST (Perth)
Thursday, 3 December 2020, 9pm EST (Washington DC)

COST:
Free, but registration is essential

ANALYSIS

Donald Trump won't go gently into that good night

USSC CEO Professor Simon Jackman and Lecturer in Political Science Dr Shaun Ratcliff

Donald Trump is refusing to go quietly into the night.

While he has finally accepted the start of a transition process to the new administration, he has not conceded the election to Democratic candidate Joe Biden and is continuing his legal challenges to the results in some states.

Trump's insistence that the election was stolen from him is widely understood as baseless and an attack on the legitimacy of Biden's win and of American democratic institutions.

Given the facts about the election are so clear, why have so few Republicans acknowledged that Biden will be the next president of the United States? Why is it that only a handful of Republicans have called upon Trump — now a lame-duck president — to accede to the conventions of a presidential transition, and cease his baseless attacks on the legitimacy of America's democratic institutions?

The answer is because of Trump's deep connection to the Republican base, still fervently in his corner.

Survey research by the United States Studies Centre, collected in the weeks before the election, found that Americans were deeply divided about the integrity of the 2020 election and accepting its outcome even before the count, with supporters of President Trump much more likely to report concerns about election fraud than Biden supporters.

We asked our sample of 1500 American respondents how often they thought mail-in ballots would be cast fraudulently, how often voters would be threatened with violence at the polls and how often they thought votes would be counted fairly.

Seventy-one per cent of Trump voters said they believed mail-in ballot fraud happened very or fairly often, and 30 per cent said votes would not be counted fairly. Just 13 per cent of respondents voting for Joe Biden thought mail-in ballot fraud happened often, and the same number thought they would not be counted fairly.

Pre-election, the Republican base had already accepted Trump's assessment that his loss would constitute evidence of election fraud. Safe for some quickly corrected rhetorical missteps, Trump hews to this line. With few Republicans challenging Trump's view, rank-and-file Republicans have little reason to think differently.

That Trump can sustain this argument, with little or no public opposition from Republicans, speaks volumes about his power.

This is an excerpt from Professor Simon Jackman and Dr Shaun Ratcliff's recent op-ed in the Canberra Times.
Click below to read the full article.

BY THE NUMBERS

Concern about Chinese influence

US 56% | Aus 65%

At the end of 2019, the USSC conducted a poll comparing the United States and Australia on a wide range of issues. In recent years, concern about foreign influence and interference was growing in both countries, but it was more prominent in Australia where 65 per cent of those surveyed said they were concerned about Chinese influence compared to 56 per cent in the United States. A mere 21 per cent of Australians said they were not concerned.

One year on, in the wake of a global pandemic originating in China, an increase in tariffs imposed by China and overt anti-Australia disinformation from China, these tensions have only escalated.

For more, read the full report from the USSC: Public opinion in the age of Trump: The United States and Australia compared or download HERE. 

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

#WineTime