15 APRIL

A note from the CEO

Each week seems more extraordinary than the one that preceded it.

More than 600,000 Americans are confirmed COVID-19 cases and over 26,000 Americans have died. The United States leads the world on both of these metrics. New York City has recorded 8,000 COVID-19 related deaths, with almost 800 deaths per day for the past week. Especially deadly among minority populations in the United States, the economic costs of COVID-19 in the US are also appalling, with 6.6 million added to the unemployment rolls this week, bringing the US unemployment rate to 10.6 per cent.

There were two other developments of note that we’re tracking closely at the US Studies Centre.

Firstly, COVID-19 will define Trump’s presidency and re-election chances, leading Trump to play “blame game” politics with all of his characteristic audacity and braggadocio. State governors, the media, the World Health Organization, and the Chinese regime are all targets. Expect plenty more over the weeks and months ahead. The stakes couldn’t be higher, not merely for Trump, his presidency and the judgment of history, but also for the many Americans whose lives and livelihoods are threatened by the pandemic and are relying on the response of their federal and state governments.

Secondly, the world is turning to analysis of how the United States got this so wrong. In Australia -- as evidenced in articles by Nine and ABC -- the media is increasingly turning it's gaze to the United States to better understand what America’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic signals about the trajectory of American power, capability and prestige.

As Australians feel more reassured about the progression of the pandemic here (perhaps prematurely, perhaps not), room is opening up for Australians to turn to the obvious and startling comparisons with the United States. The US Studies Centre has an important leadership role to play as these comparisons — and whatever conclusions will be drawn — become more prominent in the Australian national conversation.

Professor Simon Jackman
CEO, United States Studies Centre

NEWS WRAP

Tipping point or turning point?

Bernie Sanders has backed Joe Biden’s bid for the Democratic nomination after he suspended his 2020 presidential campaign. The endorsement comes after weeks of contention over Sanders remaining in the race, despite a notable drop in support after Super Tuesday in early March. Biden said the endorsement “means a great deal” and called Senator Sanders “the most powerful voice for a fair and more just America”. Non-Resident Fellow Bruce Wolpe says the question will be whether Bernie’s loyal supporters will follow him in backing Biden. This, he argues, “depends in part on how far Biden goes to extending genuine support for Sanders' ideals”. READ MORE HERE
Total authority or total overreach? In response to a question on Monday whether he has “total authority,” President Trump answered, "Enough". However this was swiftly followed by a tirade of denying and distancing that seemed to signal anything but firm control over the situation at hand. In times of war, presidents have perpetually extended the influence of the Executive Branch, often with the social licence to do what needed to be done. After this press conference, though, the public is firmly split again with the left decrying it as a meltdown and the right claiming the President was "on fire". READ MORE HERE
President Trump has announced a funding freeze on the World Health Organization while a review is conducted over their response to COVID-19. President Trump said the review would look into the WHO’s role in “severely mismanaging and covering up the spread of coronavirus”. The US gives between US$400 to US$500 million worth of funding to the WHO annually. "Had the WHO done its job to get medical experts into China to objectively assess the situation on the ground and to call out China's lack of transparency, the outbreak could have been contained at its source with very little death," President Trump said. READ MORE HERE
The US Treasury has reached an agreement with several domestic airlines to provide them with aid amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Air travel demand has reached its lowest levels in decades, causing several companies to ground fleets and thousands of workers to go on voluntary unpaid leave. Delta, American, JetBlue and Southwest have reached deals for portions of US$25 billion in payroll grants, the largest ever government aid package for airlines. Non-Resident Fellow Justin Wastnage recently released a research brief on the future of the airline industry post COVID-19. The pandemic, Mr Wastnage argues, “will destroy the travel and tourism industry” and the “airline industry worldwide has been brought to its knees”. READ MORE HERE
Police report filed by Biden accuser. Former aide to Joe Biden, Tara Reade, filed a police report on Thursday alleging she was sexually assaulted in 1993. While the report cites an unnamed person, in interviews with the Associated Press she alleges she was assaulted by the Democratic presidential nominee. While denying this claim, Biden’s deputy campaign manager emphasised his belief that the voices of women should be heard. Biden’s handling of this claim will be a serious test of his electability with women voters and whether he can win-over any segments of the white women that overwhelmingly supported Trump. READ MORE HERE

When somebody is the president of the United States, the authority is total, and that's the way it's gotta be. It's total.

President Donald Trump
White House coronavirus press briefing
13 April 2020

ANALYSIS

How COVID-19 could factor into Biden's VP nomination

Elliott Brennan
Research Associate

In the final debate of the Democratic presidential primary, Joe Biden declared he would pick a woman to run on his ticket for vice president, saying “there are a number of women in this country who are qualified to be president tomorrow”. Functionally, that is the sole attribute a vice president needs to possess – the ability to take over from an incapacitated president and run the country.

Joe Biden, 77, and Bernie Sanders, 78, stood six feet apart on that stage and engaged in the least controversial snubbed debate handshake in history. The undeniable subtext was COVID-19. In a few painful weeks, it erased centuries of presidential campaigning muscle memory. The coronavirus will, by necessity, affect the decision of which name to etch alongside Biden's on the campaign ticket.

So, of the most-talked about women at the top of the shortlist, how could COVID-19 sway their chances?

First there’s Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar. A dark horse in the Democratic primary, she peaked too late to challenge the nomination, but high enough to put her name in consideration for vice president.

Klobuchar brings with her the prospect of doubling down on taking back the crucial Midwest. Yet in being a moderate like Biden, she doesn’t offer his ticket overwhelming odds of winning-over the ‘Bernie or bust’ wing, nor the younger generation of voters.

More recently, Klobuchar’s husband was admitted to hospital with COVID-19. While he’s now doing well at home, Klobuchar will thus be able to empathise with this American tragedy on a granular level. Yet empathy is not an area in which Joe Biden needs shoring up either, having experienced personal tragedy on a scale almost unmatched in American politics. Biden's best campaigning moments have always been when he’s at his most raw, grappling intimately with loss and the leadership it demands.

California Senator Kamala Harris could be Joe Biden’s political prosecutor in chief. She practically eviscerated him in the July debate on his historic positions on race. The Biden campaign must be asking itself: if Harris could do that to Biden on race, what could she do to President Trump on COVID-19? Moreover, Biden is positioning himself as the healing president, and it would be a sign of healing to pick Harris.

Biden comfortably won the broad black vote in the primary, so having a woman of colour by his side may not help him too much more with older black voters – especially now that the Obamas have been deployed.

There’s also Stacy Abrams. The narrowly defeated black contender for governor of the staunchly conservative state of Georgia and founder of electoral reform organisation ‘Fair Fight’ offers the Biden campaign a lot. Abrams, 46, is nine years younger than Harris and as COVID-19 strangles the operation of American democracy, access to voting issues will rise to unprecedented importance. With Fair Fight, Abrams has made herself a national authority on election reform. Additionally, every Senate seat is crucial for Democrats, Klobuchar’s Minnesota especially so. California is a safe blue state and pulling Harris out wouldn’t seriously risk a Republican coup. Even less impact would be felt with Abrams.

Then there’s Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer. She’s a future superstar in the Democratic Party who delivered this year’s official State of the Union reply. Whitmer won her office in 2018 by 10 points and is seen as exemplifying what it takes for Democrats to win in red states.

Michigan is not only a crucial battleground in the 2020 Senate and presidential races but is one of the nation’s worst-affected states in the COVID-19 battle. Governors have been prominent in the fight against COVID-19 and have been richly rewarded in opinion polls for their toils.

Having a ‘doer’ by his side will help Biden who is currently stranded in his living room studio while this monumental crisis unfolds. But, crucially, as my colleague Bruce Wolpe astutely asks: “can Whitmer really leave her citizens (in a must-win state) in their hour of urgent need because of her ambition to be vice president?”

The choice ultimately remains that of those asked. With a formal police report filed about a strenuously denied sexual assault allegation against Joe Biden, there is a distant world in which the woman his campaign chooses doesn't want to be his vice president.

COVID-19: BY THE NUMBERS

Death rate: US 4 per cent | AUS 1 per cent

As discussed in our recent webinar with Prof. Raina MacIntyre, the US and Australia are on very separate coronavirus trajectories. This is most clear in the death rate. When corrected by population, the current death rate in the US is more than 4 times higher than the death rate in Australia for the same number of cases and 17 times higher per million people.

To follow the latest trends and numbers, visit our COVID-19 tracker HERE.

VIRTUAL EVENT

COVID-19, A TRADE WAR AND STRATEGIC COMPETITION

HOW WASHINGTON'S VIEW OF CHINA HAS SHIFTED

A more robust approach to China is one of the few areas of bipartisanship in a highly polarised Washington, DC. But is China likely to remain bipartisan during and after the 2020 election? How is the Trump administration approaching strategic competition with China amidst a global pandemic? Beyond American politicians, what is the “inside the beltway” view of Beijing?

To discuss these issues, please join us for a webinar event featuring United States Studies Centre CEO Professor Simon Jackman in conversation with Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian, the China reporter for Axios.

WHEN: Friday 17 April, 11:00am

REGISTER NOW

MORE UPCOMING EVENTS

Australians in the United States & COVID-19: A Discussion with Ambassador Sinodinos

Join AAA President and former U.S. Ambassador to Australia John Berry, as he speaks to Australia’s Ambassador to the United States, the Hon. Arthur Sinodinos AO, to discuss the Australian Government’s response to COVID-19 and to hear key messages for Australians in the United States.

When: Thursday, 16 April at 8am AEST
More info & register: HERE