10 APRIL 

Homeland security shake up

US Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen resigned on Sunday. Her letter of departure read that the United States deserves, “to have all the tools and resources they need to execute the mission entrusted in them”. The abrupt departure came after Nielsen met with President Donald Trump, who recently decided to drop border official Ron Vitiello’s nomination to lead US Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

It's the latest signal that the president plans to take the department in a new direction. The White House is reportedly discussing new steps to slow the flow of migrants, including bringing back a version of separating migrant families at the border. Another option on the table: ramping up deportations of immigrants already living in the United States illegally who have an outstanding order of removal.

Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday, Trump said he is not looking to reinstate the controversial family separation policy he suspended last year, but then implied it was an effective means of stemming unauthorised border crossings.

NEWS WRAP

Red is the new black

• Socialism is back – or at least the "s" word is certainly being thrown around the United States with increasing fervour with politicians like Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on the scene. But are there generational differences in how socialism is interpreted and does this influence the way people answer questions about the topic? To understand what Americans and Australians think of socialism, the United States Studies Centre and YouGov surveyed respondents in the United States and Australia – with surprising results. READ MORE HERE.
   

• How are social media platforms going to impact the 2020 campaign for US president? Director of the USSC's Innovation and Entrepreneurship program Claire McFarland joined the 2020Vision podcast this week to discuss accountability for technology companies, election advertising online and the future of traditional media post-Trump. LISTEN HERE.
   

• EU and Chinese officials meeting in Brussels on Tuesday proclaimed their summit as a win-win, including on some of the EU's major trade disagreements like a joint pledge to back tough World Trade Organization rules on industrial subsidies. Their success highlighted some of the missed opportunities for the Trump administration in teaming up with the Europeans to press China for a swifter opening of its markets to the West. USSC foreign policy lecturer Gorana Grgic spoke to Bloomberg about the Brussels meeting this week. WATCH HERE.
   

• Europe might seem far away, but its strategic predicament offers important lessons for Australia, according to senior fellow Charles Edel. He wrote for The Australian this week on the address by Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg to a​ joint session of the US congress commemorating NATO’s 70th anniversary, and how NATO points the way for the Pacific. READ MORE HERE.
   

• As Americans worry about the potential end of a 10-year economic expansion, is it worth them studying us Aussies, with a winning streak about to turn 28? The USSC hosted The New York Times Neil Irwin last month for discussions with staff and students about the Australian and US economies. You can read some of his takeaways from that meeting in his latest column. READ MORE HERE.

 Please do not instruct me as to how I am to conduct this committee.

Democrat Maxine Waters spars with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in a House Financial Services Committee hearing.
9 April 2019

ANALYSIS

Why does Trump attack – and then retreat? 

Bruce Wolpe
Non-Resident Senior Fellow

It’s happened twice in the past two weeks: President Trump has laid out bold positions on immigration (closing the border with Mexico) and health (repealing Obamacare), but then retreated on both. 

This is a man who never concedes weakness or admits a mistake. So, what's really going on? Trump believes deeply in what he has put forward. Immigration has been his #1 issue throughout his campaign and presidency, from the Muslim immigration ban, to the wall with Mexico, to the government shutdown, to the declaration of a national emergency on the southern border, to the threat to close the border altogether. And now he has forced his Secretary of Homeland Security Kirstjen Nielsen to resign because she is not tough enough.

Repealing Obamacare has been issue #2, from the multiple votes in Congress to the posthumous attacks on Senator John McCain and his thumbs-down in the Senate on repealing the Affordable Care Act.

Trump has failed on both because he has not been able to build a consensus in Congress to act on either. Why? Trump does not come from the political world – he comes from the business world. There are different rules of the game. In the C-suites, the CEO issues orders, and they get executed. 

In the political world, the president needs to build coalitions to get the votes in Congress.  What is now abundantly clear is that Trump simply does not know how to do real legislative work, and he pays a huge political price. 

Trump declaims regularly on the issues, but there are no deals on immigration or health or infrastructure. To solve those issues, what is needed are real bipartisan summits – not show meetings before television cameras at the cabinet table or in the Oval – that are structured to reach agreement. In her resignation letter, Homeland Secretary Kirsten Nielsen could not have been clearer in stating what the real impediment to immigration policy is:

“I hope that the next Secretary will have the support of Congress and the courts in fixing the laws which have impeded our ability to fully secure America’s borders and which have contributed to discord in our nation’s discourse.”

Trump is incapable of proceeding like this. He simply says: Congress should get this done! But there is no follow-through, except for firing his cabinet officers when he gets frustrated that nothing is changing.

Where Trump has in fact succeeded – his landmark tax cuts, and consistent Senate approval for conservative judges throughout the court system, and conservative justices on the Supreme Court – is where Republicans were united and Trump had the votes in the Senate and House in his first two years to get those done. There was no cross-party dealing on tax or the Supreme Court, just the steamroller of Republican votes on the floor of the Senate and House.  

Throughout, Trump has not had just the 'Bully Pulpit' of speeches and campaigning –made famous by Theodore Roosevelt – to rev up his base. He has also had the Trump Bully Tweet Pulpit, which he uses to hurl thunderbolts and change the agenda in an instant. He may not be able to execute on his pronouncements, but he defines the contours of debate, and everyone has to react when he does.

On the foreign policy front – particularly trade – Trump has had more success, because in foreign policy and as commander-in-chief he can act like a CEO, and issue orders that get carried out. Impose tariffs on China. Withdraw from Syria. Threaten and then open up negotiations with North Korea. Recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and accept Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. Impose sanctions and squeeze Maduro in Venezuela.

What is missing for Trump is that he is spurning what could be breakthrough legislative successes, especially on immigration. When Trump retreats, it is not to concede a point and drive a compromise deal. Trump would rather own the issue and feed his base rather than forge compromise and consensus and expand his political reach.

Trump builds no political capital from compromising – and winning –  on Capitol Hill, and this makes even him more vulnerable to the political attacks that will not stop. He demands action on his issues all the time. He will continue to do so. But he can’t get his issues done.

DIARY

The week ahead

• 10-12 April: Australian Senate Budget Estimates.
   

• Wednesday, 10 April: US Senate Judiciary hearing to examine the nomination of Jeffrey A. Rosen to be Deputy Attorney General, Department of Justice.
   

• Thursday, 11 April: President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump are scheduled to meet with South Korean President Moon Jae-in and First Lady Kim Jung-sook. 
   

• Thursday, 11 April: US Senate Armed Services Committee hearing to examine the proposal to establish a United States Space Force.

EVENT

The Lessons of Tragedy: Book launch and discussion

VIDEO

 Joe Biden: 'I will be more respectful of people’s personal space'

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

#Immigration

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Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006

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