VIDEO

Media and the 2020 election

Did you miss our recent webinar on Media and the 2020 election? For this instalment of our Election Watch series, the USSC hosted an all-media panel featuring The Australian's Cameron Stewart, The Australian Financial Review's Jacob Greber, Matthew Knott from The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald and host Zoe Daniel. Watch the full discussion HERE.

Catch this and other recent webinars on the USSC YouTube channel!

NEWS WRAP

Polling's moment of truth

• Australians favour Biden | Recent polling shows 49 per cent of Australians support Joe Biden, compared to 23 per cent for Donald Trump. Men and Coalition voters are more likely to support Trump, but a majority still support Biden. READ MORE HERE
   

• COVID-19 cases | The undeniable story of the election has not paused for the final day of voting, with the United States recording 82,895 new cases and 476 deaths. The virus has been one of the catalysts for record levels of early voting. More than 67 per cent of the total number of citizens who voted in the 2016 election cast a vote before election day. READ MORE HERE
   

• Businesses boarded up, nation on edge | Business owners have joined the White House in preparing for protests ahead of results from the US election. Pictures of businesses boarded up in Washington and New York have been shared widely online, while a “non-scalable fence has been erected outside the White House where President Trump and Vice President Pence are watching election returns. READ MORE HERE
   

• Social media warning political candidates | Twitter will place warning labels on tweets from US political candidates who claim victory before official results are declared, the company announced this week. Beginning in May 2020, Twitter has flagged and limited the sharing of a number of President Trump’s tweets due to issues that included calling himself immune from the coronavirus and castigating mail-in ballots as fraudulent. READ MORE HERE
   

• Rampant political polarisation | Only 31 per cent of Democrats would accept a Trump re-election while only 45 per cent of Republicans would accept a Biden win, according to polling released this week by the United States Studies Centre. The polling also found that only 16 per cent of Trump voters said Democrats would accept their candidate if he won, while 26 per cent of Biden supporters said Republicans would accept their nominee. READ MORE HERE

ANALYSIS

Free and fair? American attitudes towards electoral integrity and legitimacy

Professor Simon Jackman
Chief Executive Officer

Dr Shaun Ratcliff
Lecturer in Political Science

How fair do Americans believe their elections are? Do they think votes are counted properly, or that fraudulent mail-in ballots are cast? Will Americans accept the election outcome if their candidate loses?

There are some concerning signs that many US citizens have reservations about electoral integrity and no longer accept the legitimacy of candidates other than their own.

Since the 1970s, ideological polarisation has increased, widening the gap between the policy preferences of Republicans and Democrats.

Since the winner can pass legislation, appoint judges to federal courts, and make executive orders as polarisation increases, the consequences of winning or losing a presidential election are significant. This was highlighted by the blocking of Barack Obama’s Supreme Court nomination, moderate liberal Merrick Garland, by the Republican Senate majority nine months before the 2016 presidential election, and the appointment and confirmation of conservative Amy Coney Barrett by Republican President Donald Trump and the Republican Senate majority a week before the 2020 election.

Polarisation makes it difficult for Democrats and Republicans to negotiate, undermining governance through gridlock and lower quality legislation and limiting the ability of the executive and judicial branches to properly function. Affective polarisation (the tendency of Republicans and Democrats to view supporters of the other party negatively, and co-partisans positively) is also increasing. This impacts on voters' willingness to accept the legitimacy of the other side and elections won by their opponents.

Perceptions of poor electoral integrity and disputes about the legitimacy of the winner could create significant issues after the election. Law enforcement officials are bracing for problems after the election, with some groups ready for violence if the results do not go their way; although some research suggests widespread outbreaks of violence are unlikely.

To better understand Americans beliefs about how free and fair their electoral process is, and how the results of the 2020 presidential election will be received, the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney surveyed 1,500 Americans in early October 2020.

This is an excerpt from the Centre's latest State of the United States polling

BY THE NUMBERS

Acceptance of opposition win

Rep 45% | Dem 31%

USSC polling experts Professor Simon Jackman and Dr Shaun Ratcliff conducted a poll between 13-19 October. The poll asked respondents who were voting for Donald Trump to agree or disagree with the following statement: ‘If the Democratic candidate Joe Biden wins the presidential election in November, all Americans should accept him as the president.’ Only 45 per cent agreed or strongly agreed with the proposition. The poll asked supporters of Joe Biden to agree or disagree with the following statement: ‘If the Republican candidate Donald Trump wins the presidential election in November, all Americans should accept him as the president’. Even fewer, 31 per cent, agreed or strongly agreed. We asked all other respondents: ‘No matter who wins the presidential election in November, all Americans should accept him as the president.’ A slim majority, 58 per cent, agreed or strongly agreed.

To read more results from the State of the United States Poll, click HERE.

VIRTUAL EVENT

US POLITICS WEB SERIES

With special guests former US Ambassador to Australia Jeff Bleich and former Australian Consul-General Chelsey Martin

The Perth USAsia Centre and United States Studies Centre host a monthly web series in which our CEOs review the latest in US politics with a focus on the US election and US-Indo-Pacific relations.

This month's distinguished guests are Jeff Bleich, former US Ambassador to Australia and Chelsey Martin, former Australian Consul-General in Los Angeles who will discuss the US election results with USSC CEO Simon Jackman and Perth USAC CEO Gordon Flake.

WHEN:
Friday, 6 November, 1pm AEDT (Sydney) 10am AWST (Perth)
Thursday, 5 November, 9pm EST (Washington, DC)

COST: 
Free, but registration is essential

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

#VOTE!