NEWS WRAP

Bernie's back for the next debate

• Senator Bernie Sanders plans to participate in the next debate, his campaign said. The announcement is a strong indication that Sanders intends to continue to compete against front-runner Joe Biden for the Democratic nomination and for the chance to face off against President Trump in November. One of Sanders' top campaign officials assured voters "Senator Sanders is still running for president" and said if there is a debate in April, Sanders "plans to be there”. The Democratic National Committee has yet to schedule a debate for April and with the coronavirus pandemic, there is still no guarantee the debate will take place. READ MORE HERE
   
• Americans are rallying, just not for their president. War, natural disasters and pandemics thrust attention onto incumbent politicians, those charged with responding to catastrophes with the command of the resources of the state. Amidst the COVID-19 crisis, however, the United States is different. Professor Simon Jackman explores partisanship in the US and how Joe Biden is “capitalising on being seen as a safe pair of hands in the midst of crisis”. The rally here, Professor Jackman asserts, “is not for the incumbent, but for the challenger”. READ MORE HERE
   
• The RBA should have followed the Federal Reserve's lead, says the USSC's director of Trade and investment, Dr Stephen Kirchner. The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered the cash rate target to an unprecedented 0.25 per cent. The reduction was accompanied with a commitment by RBA Governor Philip Lowe that the target would not be raised “until progress is being made towards full employment” and inflation returning to within a sustainable target range. While the RBA has indicated a willingness to do more, Dr Kirchner argues its actions to date have “fallen short of what will likely be required to stabilise an economy facing one of the worst shocks in its history”. READ MORE HERE
   
• Colorado has abolished the death penalty, joining a growing number of states moving away from capital punishment. In what was the sixth attempt by lawmakers in recent years to repeal the death sentence, Governor Jared Polis signed it into law after it cleared state legislature, making Colorado the 22nd US state to put an end to the practice. Though reinstated in the mid-1970s, the law was seldom used; the only execution to take place after the law was reinstated was in 1997. After the repeal went through, Governor Polis also commuted the sentences of three men on death row to life imprisonment without parole. READ MORE HERE
   
• How will the coronavirus affect voting in the US presidential election? The 2020 election is plagued with uncertainty as the coronavirus pandemic quickly sweeps across the country. As states place various limits and bans on gatherings, and after President Trump warded against meetings of more than 10 people, voting practices, rallies and campaigning in the lead up to November have been thrown into disarray. From how the candidates are responding to how it will impact voting, USSC Research Assistant Zoe Meers discusses what role the virus could play in the election. READ MORE HERE
   
• Partisanship and mistrust will only make COVID-19 more deadly, says Non-Resident Senior Fellow Mia Love. The media and political climate in the United States is divided, and now more than ever people need to trust their leaders and the information being given to them. But after years of partisan fighting and biased media coverage, Love says Americans are jaded and distrustful of the credibility of their politicians, making citizens question the seriousness of the coronavirus pandemic. In her latest article, Love writes the "challenges ahead could not be graver". READ MORE HERE

ANALYSIS

Trump vs. Governors: A war on Capitol "ill"?

Bruce Wolpe
Non-Resident Senior Fellow

The hyper-partisan warriors on Capitol Hill began laying down their arms on Tuesday in Washington, with agreement in reach on a US$2 trillion economic relief and stimulus package to combat the brutal pain that is being inflicted on the United States from the Coronavirus pandemic.

As reported in the Washington Post Wednesday morning here in Australia:

“The Senate bill would direct payments of $1,200 to most American adults and $500 to most children, create a $500 billion lending program for companies, states, and cities, and extend an additional $367 billion to help small companies deal with payroll problems. It would bolster the unemployment insurance system and pump $150 billion into US hospitals.” Key industries such as the airlines would receive special relief.

While there are still issues to be worked out on providing further assistance to working Americans, agreement is near and a vote is expected in the Senate late Wednesday, with concurrence by the House of Representatives shortly thereafter.

Although there is fierce urgency to cope with a shutdown of the American economy that would be deeper than the Great Recession over a decade ago, the political road to this agreement was more difficult than in previous crises. In September 2008, as the GFC commenced, the House of Representatives rejected a Wall Street bailout bill, and the Dow crashed 777 points. That shock led all parties to redouble efforts and pass the legislation. This week, it took two failed votes in the Senate, and a fall of 1,500 points – capping a 35 per cent decline just in March from record highs – for common sense and compromise to finally prevail.

This shows hyper-partisan dysfunction in Washington is increasing even in the face of the most profound threats to the country’s welfare.

The rescue program will become law. Whether it is enough for the economy to be in decent shape to aid Trump’s re-election in November is the huge political question of the year.

As the Senate worked its will, Trump held a “town hall” on Fox News, stating that he wanted to have the economy re-opened by Easter, only three weeks away. These remarks came as several states tightened restrictions on movement and economic activity – just as is being done daily here in Australia.

If Trump persists in this goal, he may provoke a war with several key governors on the front lines – Andrew Cuomo of New York, Gavin Newsome of California, Jay Inslee of Washington, Michael DeWine of Ohio – who have acted aggressively to control the spread of the virus in their states.

It is not at all clear that Trump’s authority as president can in fact override the executive power of these governors over the activities of the citizens of their states. It is also unclear, with California’ share of US GDP of 14.5 per cent, and New York’s at 8.2 per cent, how significant economic recovery can be if those two states remain in lockdown.

Trump knows the economy has been his strongest asset politically, and that he risks being seen to “own” economic catastrophe if the country is in recession, or worse, with unemployment well over 10 per cent, on election day. The governors know they are being rewarded politically by their voters for their decisive, science-based, fact-based, no-nonsense aggressive actions to protect the public health of their citizens from the pandemic.

President Trump is pushing to shove the virus aside to get the economy moving again. But if he really goes down that path, will it come at a cost of thousands of more deaths between now and November?

BLOG

The latest COVID-19 analysis

As COVID-19 sweeps the world, the United States Studies Centre remains committed to our mission of analysis of America to deliver insights for Australia.

This blog is the dedicated space for the centre’s analysis of the pandemic’s impact in the spheres of foreign policy, economics, innovation, public health and general wellbeing as this crisis continues.

The USSC is dedicated to making discoveries and drawing insights with tangible value for our audiences, and with the uncertainty of this crisis, our mission and expertise have never been more important.

VIDEO

Dr Gorana Grgic on the coronavirus pandemic and US-China ties

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