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October 2020
Commander-in-Chief battles COVID-19
In an October surprise like no other, President Trump was diagnosed with COVID-19 on Friday. As United States Studies Centre (USSC) CEO Professor Simon Jackman said to 9 News, "the biggest impact is how Donald Trump campaigns while undergoing isolation." Over the span of the weekend, President Trump announced his diagnosis via Twitter, was admitted to Walter Reed Hospital, went on a brief drive in the motorcade around the hospital and checked out of the hospital.
From the first presidential debate to the passing of US Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the US election continues to evolve and make international headlines. Beyond the horserace, the United States Studies Centre (USSC) continues to bring evidence-based analysis to what the US election and shifts in foreign policy mean for Australia.
Once again, formidable guests have joined the USSC webinar series to provide expert perspectives on the most pressing issues of 2020. On Friday, Senator Jeff Flake joined the US Election Web Series - co-hosted by the Perth USAsia Centre and USSC. This was a stark contrast to his visit in January. US election analyst Charlie Cook warned that the United States is "10x more hyperpartisan" than during the Bush vs Gore 2000 election. Later this month, Distinguished Ambassadorial Fellow Joe Hockey will be joining a VIP guest to give a Washington DC perspective on the pending election.
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ELECTION WATCH
Four weeks to the election
Polling
USSC analysis of recent polling indicates a one in three chance of President Trump being re-elected in November. In May, polling showed a stark contrast in partisan perception of COVID-19 management, nearly six months later the chasm between partisan perceptions of pandemic management in the United
States has widened, while in Australia it remains unified. Given the split along partisan lines, it is clear the pandemic has further entrenched voting intention, rather than swinging the vote from one party to another.
Debate reactions
After watching the first presidential debate last week, USSC experts shared their different reactions to this head-to-head meeting of Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Here's a round-up of some of the clips:
- Simon Jackman on Sky News and Ausbiz
- Bruce Wolpe in The Age, Triple M
- Kim Hoggard on The Signal and 2GB
- Jared Mondschein on The Conversation and Sky News
- David Smith on Yahoo News
- Brendon O'Connor on Ausbiz
Key dates (Australian times)
- 8 October from 12pm - 1:30pm (AEDT) - Vice-presidential debate
- 16 October from 12pm - 1:30pm (AEDT) - Second presidential debate
- 23 October from 12pm - 1:30pm (AEDT) - Third presidential debate
- 4 November - Election day
To get your US 2020 election fix, tune into our upcoming Debate Commentary and Election Watch events.
Managing US-China nuclear risks: A guide for Australia
The US-China nuclear relationship is growing increasingly complex. In recent years, Beijing has continued to modernise and diversify its nuclear arsenal and Washington has made changes to its nuclear policy that could reinforce these trends. While there is still the relatively low risk of the use of nuclear weapons during a conflict between the two, that risk is rising as political tensions increase.
Australia’s interests would be best served by an allied military strategy for balancing China that emphasises conventional capabilities, rather than relying on US nuclear weapons to deter the unlikely prospect of a first-use nuclear attack by China.
To discuss these issues, please join us for the launch of Managing US-China nuclear risks: A guide for Australia, featuring its author, Fiona Cunningham, United States Studies Centre Non-Resident Fellow and Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University; Euan Graham, Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia-Pacific Security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, David Santoro, Vice President and Director for Nuclear Policy Programs at Pacific Forum and Brendan Thomas-Noone, Research Fellow in the Foreign Policy and Defence Program at United States Studies Centre.
DATE & TIME
SYDNEY
Wednesday, 7 Oct, 10am–11am (AEDT)
HONOLULU
Tuesday, 6 Oct, 1pm–2pm (HST)
WASHINGTON DC
Tuesday, 6 Oct, 7pm–8pm (EDT)
COST
Free, but registration required.
Election Watch: Vice-presidential debate debrief
The 2020 campaign continues to break norms and defy expectations. With the bickering and banter from the first debate still resounding, how will Vice President Pence and Senator Harris handle their encounter? Will policy and ideology feature more prominently in the Vice-Presidential debate? Will this presumably less personal, more substantive debate yield insights about the likely policy priorities of either a second Trump administration or a Biden administration? And if so, what are the implications for Australia?
To discuss these issues, please join us for a webinar event with USSC Lecturer in US Politics and Foreign Policy Gorana Grgic, Non-Resident Fellow Jennifer Hunt, and Non-Resident Fellow Kim Hoggard in conversation with Associate Professor in American Politics Brendon O’Connor.
DATE & TIME
SYDNEY
Friday, 9 Oct, 1pm–2pm (AEDT)
COST
Free, but registration required.
CENTRE NEWS
National security expert Dr Jennifer Hunt joins USSC
Australian National University Lecturer in national security Dr Jennifer Hunt has joined the United States Studies Centre (USSC) as a Non-Resident Fellow. Dr Hunt has published on comparative national security policy of cyber and energy issues in the United States, Australia and the Arab Gulf. Her recent report, The COVID-19 Pandemic vs Post-Truth, for the Global Health Security Network examines the impact of disinformation and conspiracy theories during the coronavirus pandemic. This year, she also co-authored the report Shaping the Post-Liberal Order from Within: China's Influence and Interference Operations in Australia and the United States.
To book a briefing with Jennifer Hunt or other USSC experts, please email: us-studies@sydney.edu.au
Duncan Ivison and Chelsey Martin join USSC Board
The USSC is pleased to announce the appointment of Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Research) and Professor of Political Philosophy at the University of Sydney Duncan Ivison and former Australian Consul-General in Los Angeles Chelsey Martin to its board.
Additional changes to the Board include the appointment of Dr Heather Smith PSM and Ian Saines as Deputy Chairs of the Centre and the retirement of Maria Atkinson AM and Stephen Garton AM from the Board.
Australia needs more proactive approach to evolving US-China nuclear relationship
While the risk of a deliberate nuclear exchange is still small between the United States and China, there is a growing risk of inadvertent nuclear use Non-Resident Fellow Dr Fiona Cunningham argues in her new research brief Managing US-China nuclear risks: A guide for Australia.
"The United States and China are not in a nuclear arms race. Nevertheless, efforts by the United States to maintain its current margin of superiority over China’s nuclear forces, or to deter North Korea or Russia, could prompt further growth in China’s arsenal."
This research was covered in The Australian and The Age. Read more analysis from the Foreign Policy and Defence program here.
Polling analysis shows one in three chance of a Trump re-election
Current polling indicates former vice president Joe Biden will win enough swing states to secure a victory, according to new USSC analysis The perils of pre-election polling by CEO Professor Simon Jackman and former Data Visualisation Analyst Zoe Meers. But given the errors of recent polling in the US — and so much that is unique about the 2020 election — even a large poll lead should not be considered a lock on the election result and running the numbers resulted in a Trump victory one in three times.
USSC CEO Professor Simon Jackman discussed these findings on ABC News The World and Sky News. The research was covered by The Australian, AFR and the AAP and you can read his op-eds in The Australian and on The Conversation.
Researchers testify at parliamentary hearing
Following the release of The role of US innovation in securing Australia's economic future, report author Senior Research Fellow Jared Mondschein and Research Associate Elliott Brennan made a submission to the Joint Standing Committee on Trade and Investment Growth. They provided evidence at a parliamentary hearing to make the case for urgent changes to prioritise innovation in Australia's economy to ensure it is not left behind.
Averting crisis in House Armed Services Committee testimony
Further evidence of the seminal impact of 2019's Averting Crisis report, lead author of the 2018 National Defence Strategy and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby cited the report in testimony provided to the House Armed Services Committee on 23 September.
Alumni perspectives | Ariel Castro-Martinez
American Studies alum Ariel Castro-Martinez is living in Buenos Aires during the COVID-19 pandemic. Tune in to this interview with Ariel to find out how his masters plays a role in his current work with Young Australians in International Affairs and how it gave him the opportunity to participate in the Chicago Global Cities Forum.
Watch HERE
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
Webinar replay
The last month of USSC webinars has been saturated with unmissable topics and top calibre experts. If you missed an important event, check out the webinar replays through the USSC Live podcast and on YouTube. Here are some of the greatest hits from recent webinars:
- A conversation with election analyst Charlie Cook ft Charlie Cook, Simon Jackman and Bruce Wolpe
- Law, the courts and free and fair elections ft Ruth Greenwood and Simon Jackman
- When America stopped being great ft Nick Bryant and Simon Jackman
- US Politics Web Series with special guest Mark Textor and host Zoe Daniel ft Mark Textor, Zoe Daniel, Simon Jackman and Gordon Flake
Make sure to SUBSCRIBE to the USSC YouTube channel to get notifications as soon as new videos are uploaded.
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United States Studies Centre
Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006
