24 JULY

Mueller testifies 

Appearing before Congress on Wednesday, former special counsel Robert Mueller will for the first time publicly detail what his investigation found regarding ties between Donald Trump's presidential election campaign and Russia, as well as potential efforts by the president to obstruct justice in the investigation. The highly anticipated appearance is expected to reinvigorate heated debate among Democrats over whether President Trump should be impeached. 

Mueller will appear before the House Judiciary Committee and the House Intelligence Committee. He made a brief statement at the Department of Justice in May, reiterating his team's consensus that Trump could not be exonerated, but also could not be charged with committing a crime. 

NEWS WRAP

Will voters care?

• It's unlikely the testimony will achieve a lot for Democrats unless a significant amount of new information comes to light. Senior Lecturer David Smith told News.com.au that the testimony probably will not have as great an impact on American voters as the Democrats would like. "Half the country doesn't really think he's legit and believes he's guilty of serious crimes, and another big section think he's the victim of an attempted coup hatched by the deep state." READ MORE HERE.
   

• Prime Minister Scott Morrison jets off to Washington, DC in September to join President Trump at what will be the first state dinner for an Australian leader in the United States since George W. Bush hosted John Howard. Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe notes in The Age newspaper that Morrison will not enjoy the automatic political benefit that such visits normally confer because Trump is so unpopular in Australia. READ MORE HERE.
   

• CNN's two-night Democratic primary debate next week will offer a rematch of former Vice President Joe Biden and California Senator Kamala Harris, whose clash over race became the most closely watched moment of the first round of debates. The debates will take place in Detroit and will also, for the first time, offer a match-up between Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. READ MORE HERE.
   

• China has signed a secret agreement allowing its armed forces to use a Cambodian navy base, according to US and allied officials familiar with the matter, as Beijing works to boost its ability to project military power around the globe. The Wall Street Journal interviewed Senior Fellow Charles Edel on combining Cambodian facilities with China's military outposts in the South China Sea. READ MORE HERE.
   

• China set to surpass the United States as Australia’s main academic collaborator, according to a new report. Research Fellow Brendan Thomas-Noone spoke to The South China Morning Post about the change and the need for Australia to be more aware, morally and strategically, of research collaborations we are undertaking with China. READ MORE HERE.

There’s a small window where he’s able to focus and pay attention and not fall asleep... Because he tends to fall asleep in meetings, they try not to put him in a position where that could happen, so they’re very careful and conscious about how they schedule certain meetings.

A former advisor spills details on US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross' sleeping habits
Politico
22 July 2019

ANALYSIS

I’ll have a Bloody Mueller, please​

Bruce Wolpe
Non-Resident Senior Fellow

You know it’s a prominent hearing in Washington when the bars open early for a mass viewing of the star witness before the congressional committees. It last occurred with James Comey, the fired former director of the FBI who outlined issues of presidential interference of the Russia investigation, and the good publicans of Washington are happy to bring happy hour forward by half a day when the House committee hearings with Robert Mueller get underway at 10.30 pm AEST tonight.

As there were two parts to the Mueller report – Russia’s criminal interference in the 2016 presidential election, and whether President Trump illegally obstructed the FBI and Special Counsel investigations of Russia’s attack on the US election – the hearings are in two parts. The House Judiciary Committee will address obstruction issues and the House Intelligence Committee will focus on Russia.

This highly charged day could either be explosive or anticlimactic in the extreme; a nothingburger to go with flat beer after five hours of testimony. As Mueller could not establish, and therefore could not prosecute, a criminal conspiracy between the Trump campaign and the Russians, the lion’s share of media attention is on the Judiciary Committee because of Mueller’s conclusion that he could not prosecute a sitting president for obstruction, but could not exonerate him either.

In his report, Mueller effectively told Congress to take further steps as it sees fit. Judiciary will likely go through the 10 instances of possible obstruction of justice outlined in forensic detail in the report, leading to the question that is at the centre of the committee’s deliberations on whether an impeachment proceeding against Trump should begin.

There was a test vote on impeachment sentiment last week, when Rep Al Green (D-Texas) sought to bring up a resolution to initiate impeachment proceedings. Only 95 of 235 Democrats supported the resolution. The American people do not support impeachment. If the House impeaches, the Senate will never convict. The political blowback could cripple the Democrats in 2020.

But the reason impeachment is not dead is that there is a growing frustration with Trump’s stonewalling of inquiries by House committees into the White House and Executive Branch. The denial of testimony and documents, the lawsuits against congressional subpoenas, and the White House efforts to de-legitimise congressional oversight are obstructing the ability of the House of Representatives to discharge its Article I powers under the Constitution.

The tipping point on impeachment, therefore, is whether Mueller’s appearances tonight leave the overwhelming majority of Democrats with the judgment that Trump has obstructed justice to such an extent that the House of Representatives must take the action authorised under the Constitution to bring to account a president who, in their eyes, is guilty of high crimes and misdemeanors.

There has been discussion among House Democrats about considering a resolution of censure against Trump that would capture all the activities that have impeded the effective work of Congress, and that addresses a litany of corrupt activity. This would take last week’s resolution of condemnation for Trump’s attacks on four congresswomen an order-of-magnitude step further, allowing the House to express its damning judgement on Trump, but without the consequences of impeachment.

The considered judgement of the House leadership is, however, that if a decisive majority of House Democrats believe that impeachment is required by the record of its committees’ investigations of Trump, then impeach. If not, don’t. That is the lens through which we should look at Mueller’s testimony.

What should not be lost is the session Mueller will likely enjoy far more: his discussion with the Intelligence Committee of what Russia did, and how the United States must take further action to prevent the foreign corruption of the 2020 elections. On this, Mueller will shine, and will be heard. 

DIARY

The week ahead

• Wednesday, 24 July: Former special counsel Robert Mueller will testify in front of the House Judiciary and Intelligence Committees on the findings of his investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election. 
   

• Monday, 29 July: The last week the US House is in session before breaking for August recess. 
   

• Monday, 29 July: Senior fellows Charles Edel and John Lee will give a Parliament House briefing in Canberra on their new report into the future of the US-Australia alliance. They'll be joined by Secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Frances Adamson.
   

• Tuesday, 30 July: The US Senate will vote to extend the 9/11 victim fund. 

EVENT

Creating an innovation-rich environment: Lessons from the US, Australia and Asia-Pacific

VIDEO

 Trump supporters chant 'send her back' at rally

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

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