31 JULY

Round two for 2020 Democrats

Democratic presidential hopefuls have kicked off the second round of debates, this time hosted by CNN in Detroit, Michigan. The first 10 candidates on Tuesday showcased differing views on proposals to eliminate private health insurance, reshape the US economy and confront powerful American corporations.

Qualification rules remain the same as the first debates, but Californian congressman Eric Swalwell has dropped out of the race and Montana Governor Steve Bullock has now qualified. That means the debate stage is still crowded, with 10 candidates on camera per night. All eyes will be on another showdown between Senator Kamala Harris and former Vice President Joe Biden on night two.

NEWS WRAP

"I believe the comments were racist"

As the first black Republican woman elected to Congress, USSC Senior Fellow Mia Love has a unique perspective on President Trump's recent attacks on black members of the US Congress – the latest directed at Maryland Democrat Elijah Cummings and civil rights leader Al Sharpton. Writing for ABC News this week, Love says she believes the comments were racist and do not reflect the views of the majority of the Republican Party. READ MORE HERE.
Democrats did not achieve what they were hoping for during former special counsel Robert Mueller's testimony to Congress last week: a dramatic day that would change opinion among their colleagues on impeachment proceedings and, more importantly, change opinion among the American people. Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe outlined the six takeaways from Mueller's testimony. READ MORE HERE.
The so-called "Squad" of Democratic congresswomen continue to capture the attention of the media and the public several weeks after President Trump launched attacks on them. Lecturer in US politics and foreign policy Gorana Grgic – recently returned from a six-month stint at Harvard University's Center for European Studies – joined the 2020Vision podcast to chart their rise and also look at the future of transatlantic relations under President Trump and new British PM Boris Johnson. LISTEN HERE.
President Trump has announced that Dan Coats will step down as the director of national intelligence and that Rep. John Ratcliffe will take over the country's network of spy agencies. Coats has clashed with Trump over Russia and other issues during his time as director of national intelligence while Ratcliffe will offer a starkly different perspective, more in line with Trump's thinking. READ MORE HERE.
This week marks the 75th anniversary of the Bretton Woods conference that laid the foundations for the post-World War II international monetary system. Writing for The Australian Financial Review, director of the USSC's Trade and Investment Program Stephen Kirchner noted that the anniversary has occasioned nostalgia for a system of international co-operation that is increasingly under challenge, but he says that nostalgia is misplaced. R EAD MORE HERE.

If you think any of this wonkiness is going to deal with this dark psychic force of the collectivised hatred that this president is bringing up in this country, then I'm afraid that the Democrats are going to see some very dark days.

Presidential hopeful and self-help guru Marianne Williamson
Democratic primary debate in Detroit, Michigan
(31 July 2019)

ANALYSIS

Mueller doesn't produce smoking gun, but raises issues that are far from resolved

Brendon O'Connor
Associate Professor in American Politics

According to much of the early commentary, Robert Mueller’s testimony last Wednesday before two US congressional committees was a disappointment.

Democrats are frustrated the special counsel did not make a clear-cut case for impeaching President Donald Trump. Mueller answered questions as laconically as possible, often suggesting congresspersons simply read his report on the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.

Democrats wanted Mueller to testify in the hope the American public would start paying more attention to his findings on how Trump obstructed justice. It turned out that Mueller’s testimony was more sophistic than animating. But it did again highlight damning things about the president’s behaviour.

Democrats may initiate impeachment proceedings in the House of Representatives, but the trial ultimately occurs in the Senate, where the Republicans have a 53-47 majority. As a result of these numbers and the need for a two-thirds majority vote to dismiss a president, removing Trump from office via impeachment proceedings is very unlikely.

Republicans are showing no signs of abandoning Trump. It is worth remembering that no president has ever been removed from office by the Senate, although two – Bill Clinton and Andrew Johnson – have been impeached by the House of Representatives.

Given these political rather than legal realities, will Democrats continue to push for Trump’s unlikely impeachment? The answer is yes. Although Democratic house leaders led by Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the house, are urging caution, the fresh wave of Democratic congresspersons elected in 2018 who rode a strong wave of anti-Trump sentiment in their congressional districts will continue to push hard for impeachment.

However, this divide can be overstated. As Pelosi’s comments following Mueller’s testimony demonstrate, the fact that Republicans control the Senate and are unlikely to convict the president may not factor into future considerations among the house leadership. Pelosi wants a strong case, not an act of political theatre. As she put it:

The stronger our case is, the worse the Senate will look for just letting the president off the hook

Pelosi knows that the case against Trump continues to build. Democrats are pursuing the president in federal courts for a number of alleged financial improprieties, and the House Judiciary Committee is preparing to enforce a subpoena against Don McGahn – the former White House Counsel allegedly directed by Trump to fire Mueller during his investigation.

In his testimony on Wednesday, Mueller confirmed that Trump pressured McGahn in yet another attempt to obstruct justice. Those who have read the Mueller report would know that there were many such attempts. These include Michael Flynn’s lies to the FBI about his conversations with Russians during the transition, the pressuring and eventual firing of FBI director James Comey, and the attempted cover-up of Don junior’s meeting with a Russian lawyer at Trump Tower in June 2016 to get whatever dirt he could on Hillary Clinton.

The challenge for Democrats, if they go ahead with impeachment in the House of Representatives, is to articulate a clear case about why such drastic action is justified. In legal terms, the case that Trump obstructed justice is strong, whereas the case for collusion with Russia is weaker.

It is easy to impute guilt by association with Trump and the Russians. First, there are Trump’s business dealings with Trump Soho and the push to have a Trump Moscow hotel. Then there is Paul Manafort’s close associations with Viktor Yanukovych. Finally, there is Steve Bannon’s appreciation of Putin’s support for ultra right-wing populists across Europe.

However, the Mueller report and his testimony produced no smoking gun. Mueller rightly warned that the Russians have an ongoing campaign to undermine the faith of Americans in democracy. Given the existing levels of frustration and apathy about politics in America, Mueller’s alarm on this issue should be taken seriously. This was one of the few issues that the reluctant witness became more animated and forceful about.

There is also a simpler reality to keep in sight. That is that during the Trump presidency, the truth has been more politicised than ever. Increasingly, the truth is presented as a lie and a lie as the truth.

DIARY

The week ahead

Wednesday, 31 July: President Trump is scheduled to meet President Battulga Khaltmaa of Mongolia.
Thursday, 1 August: Second night of the second Democratic presidential debates in Detroit, Michigan.
Thursday, 1 August: Last sitting day of Australian Parliament until 9 September.
5-8 August: National Conference of State Legislatures Legislative Summit in Nashville, Tennessee

EVENT

US allies and the future of the Indo-Pacific

There is a growing consensus among American allies and partners that an open, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific is in the interests of all nations and must be preserved. Beyond this broad vision for regional order, however, are a range of differences in national priorities, security and economic interests, and views about rules, norms and values. As the Indo-Pacific strategic landscape becomes more challenging, creating a demand for greater cooperation between the United States and its regional partners, these differences need to be better understood.

To what extent are the aims of Indo-Pacific countries aligned on issues of security, geoeconomics and regional diplomacy? What are their common strategic goals? And how can Australia work with like-minded partners to strengthen a collective approach to the region’s future?

Please join us for a public panel discussion with five US, Australian and regional experts to learn more about these important strategic trends and the future of the Indo-Pacific.

DATE & TIME
Tuesday, 13 August 2019, 6pm-7:30pm

LOCATION
The Mint 10 Macquarie St, Sydney NSW 2000

COST
Free, but registration required.

Register