9 SEPTEMBER

The resonance of tragedy

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Nineteen years ago this week, a series of attacks shook the United States and the world. The September 11 attacks claimed the lives of almost three thousand people from more than 90 countries, including 12 Australians. The following day as fires still burned in the rubble of the Twin Towers and the Pentagon, then Australian prime minister John Howard sat in the public gallery as a mark of support while the United States legislature discussed the steps it would take to repair and respond to the national tragedy. Eventually, those steps would include a foreign policy that viewed terrorism as a pre-eminent national threat and subsequent protracted wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. America largely united behind President Bush and those servicemembers who were sent to fight in the Middle East.

In 2020, the United States is still tied down in the Middle East and is witnessing historic levels of division at home. While coronavirus and protests persist, President Trump has spent the best part of the past week denying a widely corroborated report in The Atlantic that he has referred to servicemembers as “suckers” and “losers”.

Both President Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden will mark the anniversary of 9/11 in Shanksville, Pennsylvania which is the destination where a fourth plane, intended for the White House, was brought down after a struggle between its passengers and the hijackers. Pennsylvania is also a crucial battleground state, a mark of just how entwined national tragedy and the 2020 election have become.

VIDEO

The future of America's alliances

Did you miss our webinar featuring Dr Mira Rapp-Hooper on the future of America's alliances? Watch the full discussion with USSC Senior Fellow Dr Charles Edel and Non-Resident Senior Fellow Dr John Lee HERE.

Catch this and other recent webinars on the USSC YouTube channel!

NEWS WRAP

The war of the words

Sparks fly over claims Trump called US veterans "losers" and "suckers"
An article in The Atlantic ignited controversy claiming President Trump asked a senior staffer why he should attend a scheduled visit to the Aisne-Marne American Cemetery in France in 2018, saying it was "filled with losers". On the same trip, Trump allegedly referred to US troops who had lost their lives as "suckers" for getting killed. The president vehemently denied making the comments but the issue has put his relationship with the military and veterans in the spotlight. READ MORE HERE
Trump and Biden to visit rural Pennsylvania for 9/11 anniversary
Both President Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden will be commemorating the 19th anniversary of the September 11 attacks in Shanksville, Pennsylvania. While it's unclear whether their schedules will overlap, the pair are set to visit the Flight 93 National Memorial, which marks the spot where the hijacked United Airlines flight crashed, killing all 40 people onboard. READ MORE HERE
Trump launches attack on US military leadership
President Trump sparked further backlash with comments he made regarding the leaders of the US military. Addressing the allegations from The Atlantic, the president told media the top people in the Pentagon probably weren't "in love" with him, claiming they want to "do nothing but fight wars" to profit from defence contracts. READ MORE HERE
US refuses to join WHO-led COVID-19 vaccine effort
The Trump administration says the US will not take part in the global push to find a COVID-19 vaccine being led by the "corrupt" World Health Organization (WHO). More than 170 countries are in talks with the WHO to join the COVID-19 Vaccine Global Access Facility (COVAX). Non-Resident Senior Fellow Associate Professor Adam Kamradt-Scott says by opting out, the US is "weakening the collective aims of the COVAX initiative by buying up vaccine stock" and engaging in "vaccine nationalism". READ MORE HERE

I’m not saying the military is in love with me; the soldiers are.
The top people in the Pentagon probably aren’t because they want to do nothing but fight wars so that all of those wonderful companies that make the bombs and make the planes and make everything else stay happy.
But we're getting out of the endless wars[...]

President Donald Trump
Remarks in press conference
7 September 2020

ANALYSIS

Biden vs Trump: US civilian-military relations

Dr Jim Golby
Non-Resident Senior Fellow

What would a potential Biden administration mean for US civilian-military relations?

President Biden would face the daunting task of re-establishing authority over America’s most-respected institution, the US military. Since September 11, 2001, the American public has consistently expressed more support for its military than for any other federal government organisation — and the military has, often subtly, used its prestige to consolidate substantial influence over military processes.

Although many prominent pundits have argued removing Trump would solve the central problem in American civil-military relations, a President Biden would nevertheless find significant challenges persist. The combination of deep political polarisation and high public confidence in the military has been drawing the American military into domestic politics in unhealthy ways for decades.

Although Trump has reportedly received mixed reviews from senior military officers, uniformed leaders will likely bristle when a familiar cast of civilian national security experts who served during the Obama administration again enter positions of power in the White House and the Pentagon. The military’s power relative to civilian bureaucrats has been growing for years, but the hollowing out of the Pentagon bureaucracy during the entire Trump administration further cemented imbalances in military capacity and autonomy relative to its civilian overseers.

VIRTUAL EVENT

When America stopped being great

A conversation with author Nick Bryant

BBC New York Correspondent Nick Bryant has studied US elections for decades and saw the election of President Trump in 2016 as inevitable, rather than a fluke. Growing executive overreach, shifting economic and cultural power, and ubiquitous distrust of media and government paved the way for a disruptor with promises of “greatness.” As a Brit in the United States, his observations translate the American experience through a lens Australian’s can understand.

Who are the power-brokers and pawns in the 2020 election? Will Americans double down or divert away from MAGA? Is the history of President Trump’s rise also a history of America’s fall?

To discuss these issues, please join us for a webinar event featuring Nick Bryant, author of When America Stopped Being Great: A history of the present, in conversation with United States Studies Centre CEO Professor Simon Jackman.

WHEN:
Tuesday, 15 September 2020 10am AEST
Monday, 14 September, 2020 8pm EDT (Washington, DC)

COST:
Free, but registration is essential

REGISTER NOW

BY THE NUMBERS

Pennsylvania polling: What is Biden's lead?

Current polling lead for Biden = 6.2% |
His advantage minus 2016's polling error = 1.8%

Like many swing states in 2016, Pennsylvania was forecast to go to Hillary Clinton, but went to Trump in the end. The difference between September 2016 polling and the actual results was 4.4 per cent. As of 1 September 2020, Biden has a projected lead of 6.2 per cent over President Trump. Yet even when subtracting the difference in the 2016 results, Biden still holds a 1.8 per cent lead in the polls though it is a much tighter margin than the polling itself shows.

In an upcoming brief, CEO Professor Simon Jackman and former Research Assistant and Data Visualisation Analyst Zoe Meers compare and contrast the 2016 and 2020 polling to give a more accurate interpretation of what to expect in November. Register here to receive a notification when it is published.