VIDEO

US foreign policy, Iran and the United States after the 2020 election

Amid a global pandemic severely afflicting both public health and the global economy, US tensions with Iran have not abated. In May, USSC hosted a webinar discussion featuring Ambassador Wendy Sherman, the lead negotiator of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action between the P5+1, known as the Iran Deal, in a conversation with USSC Non-Resident Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe and USSC CEO Professor Simon Jackman.

You can now watch the full webinar on our YouTube channel!

NEWS WRAP

Beirut blast and the Trump trajectory

• Trump quickly calls Beirut blast a bomb
  When no one else has described the Beirut explosion as intentional, President Trump quickly labelled it an attack, calling it, “a bomb of some kind.” Information is still coming, but more than 70 people are dead and thousands more have been injured. READ MORE HERE
   

• Trump’s not 'cooked'
  In an interview with The Australian about the odds of President Trump being re-elected, USSC CEO Simon Jackman maintains, “I don’t think Trump’s cooked,” – citing the major poll errors in swing states in 2016. Polling errors were also discussed in yesterday’s webinar with polling expert Anna Greenberg. READ MORE HERE
   

• States tackle COVID-19 together
  Unlike the National Cabinet in Australia that has coordinated coronavirus controls across state boundaries, the US response has been on a state-by-state basis. Now, seven governors across party lines are pursuing a joint deal for testing. READ MORE HERE
   

• TikTok troubles
  With the US threatening to ban Chinese-based social media platform TikTok, USSC Non-resident Senior Fellow John Lee says a ban in Australia is ‘inevitable.’ READ MORE HERE

ANALYSIS

Joe Biden’s running mate will have her eye on history

Stephen Loosley, AM
Non-resident Senior Fellow

Legend has it that before he accepted Jack Kennedy’s offer to be his vice-presidential running mate, made at the Democratic National Convention in July 1960 in Los Angeles’ Biltmore Hotel, senator Lyndon B Johnson of Texas calculated the odds on a vice president stepping into the presidency. The odds were quite striking as, of 34 presidents seven had been vice presidents who had been required to step up on the death of the leader either through ill-health or assassination.

At the time, Johnson occupied the powerful Senate majority leader position and some were curious as to why he would seek an office once described by a fellow Texan who had been Franklin Roosevelt’s first vice president, “Cactus Jack” Garner, as not being worth a bucket of warm spit. But LBJ did have an appreciation of American history and he understood the vice presidency could be a stepping stone into the White House. So, tragically, it proved to be.

The presumptive Democratic nominee for the 2020 US presidential race is former vice president Joe Biden, who faces a serious test of his judgment next week, with extensive vetting completed, to choose a running mate. Already, he has made it clear this will be a woman and this has been welcomed.

But it’s worth looking at the core qualities that make the difference between a successful VP candidate and potential president and those who bring little or nothing to the table. There is little doubt, for example, as Robert A. Caro records in his landmark fourth volume of The Years of Lyndon Johnson, The Passage of Power, that Johnson’s presence on the ticket in 1960 delivered Texas.

So too did Spiro T Agnew, governor of Maryland, play an invaluable role in Richard Nixon’s “Southern Strategy” in his successful presidential campaign of 1968. So Biden needs to look at his running mate’s electoral appeal, especially within African-American constituencies, which guaranteed him the latter presidential primaries. A number of very able candidates is on offer, ranging from Senator Kamala Harris of California, Senator Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, through Senator Tammy Duckworth of Illinois, to Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan or Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico. Former UN ambassador Susan Rice is not only on a shortlist but is actively campaigning. Congresswomen Karen Bass of California and Val Demings of Florida are also in focus, along with Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms and her fellow Georgian, Stacey Abrams, among others.

But in this presidential contest, there is an overriding factor that is seldom present. Biden will be 78 if elected and thereby become the oldest president in the history of the republic. So the vice-presidential nominee has to be seen as a potential president, able to assume office in the event Biden actually is a one-term president only, or through the mechanism of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution. So, a serious capacity to lead and to govern needs to be in evidence.

COVID-19: BY THE NUMBERS

Cases per million: US 14,482 | AU 741 

While President Trump pushed back on comparing COVID-19 cases by population, the statistic is quite helpful to compare countries with different populations. The US cases per million are currently at 14,482 – an increase of 156 since yesterday, but in Australia, the cases per million are only 741. However, in both countries, the trajectory is still increasing and the increase is currently faster in Australia than the United States.

To track the latest trends and numbers, visit our COVID-19 tracker HERE.

VIRTUAL EVENT

US Politics Web Series with special guest Dr Evelyn Farkas

The Perth USAsia Centre and United States Studies Centre host a monthly web series in which our CEOs review the latest in US politics with a focus on the upcoming US election and US-Indo-Pacific relations.

This month's special guest is Evelyn Farkas who was appointed by President Obama to be Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, where she was responsible for US policy toward Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia. In 2020, Ms Farkas was a candidate to represent New York's 17th congressional district.
Ms Farkas will join USSC CEO Simon Jackman and Perth USAC CEO Gordon Flake to discuss the top stories in US politics.

WHEN:
Friday 7 Aug 2020, 1pm AEST

COST: 
Free, but registration is essential

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

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