NEWS WRAP

President Trump's third State of the Union

• President Donald Trump has delivered his third State of the Union to a joint sitting of Congress. He is just the second president to give a State of the Union address during an active impeachment trial in the Senate. The theme of the President's address was "the great American comeback". President Trump emphasised the strength of the US economy, new trade deals and proclaimed successes in his administration's immigration and foreign policies.
  
  Impeachment did not feature prominently in the address, but the president did launch a series of attacks aimed at his political opponents and "the radical left". These included a prolonged criticism of socialism and its "threat" to the American healthcare system. Division book-ended the speech when President Trump seemingly ignored House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's offer of a handshake as he took the podium and then when Speaker Pelosi tore up her copy of the speech at its conclusion. READ MORE HERE
   

• Conservative radio personality Rush Limbaugh was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom at the State of the Union. The United States' highest civilian honour was given to Limbaugh a day after the staunch Trump ally announced he was fighting stage four cancer. Limbaugh has hosted his eponymous radio show, one of the most popular radio programs in the United States, for 31 years. READ MORE HERE
   

• The Senate impeachment trial of President Donald Trump is moving closer to a long-expected acquittal. The vote is expected to take place largely along party lines on Wednesday in the Senate. In anticipation of this result, Democrats debated whether to officially censure President Trump following the vote, but after a pre-State of the Union meeting, this appeared to be shut down. Associate Professor Brendon O'Connor spoke to 2SER Radio about developments in the trial. READ MORE HERE
   

• The Kansas City Chiefs won Superbowl LIV, defeating the San Francisco 49ers 31-20 in a thriller at Hard Rock Stadium in Florida. The Chiefs trailed the 49ers by ten points in the fourth quarter but rallied to claim the franchise's first championship in over half a century. READ MORE HERE
   
• Japan has dispatched a warship to contribute to a bolstered US-led coalition in the Middle East. But the vessel will operate independently and will avoid areas in the Persian Gulf that could expose Japan to a broad conflict with Iran. Foreign Policy and Defence Program director Ashley Townshend spoke to Bloomberg news about the nature of the deployment and says it demonstrates how some US allies are seeking to "minimize their military exposure while also preserving diplomatic ties and economic relations with Iran". READ MORE HERE

ANALYSIS

RIP Iowa? The winners and losers 

Bruce Wolpe
Non-Resident Senior Fellow

This will likely be the last time Iowa goes first.

The disgraceful shambles of reporting results from this first primary of 2020 feeds immense cynicism about how American democracy functions. It is a boon to President Trump, who is lording over the mess of his opponents. And the whole world has been watching a debacle that taints the Democratic presidential race.

Iowa should never be entrusted again with leading the selection of the Democrats’ presidential nominee. Good riddance.

The partial results released shortly after 12 noon AEDT today are important but have less punch than if normality had prevailed. The incomplete results mean the boon to the putative winners is diminished, and the taint of the very poor results, especially for Joe Biden, is slightly cushioned. Most importantly, Iowa was to serve as a political grim reaper, narrowing the unwieldy field. That process will now begin next week in New Hampshire.

Winners

• Pete Buttigieg: The former Mayor of South Bend Indiana looks set to win Iowa by winning the key metric of most delegates awarded, or at the very least, by significantly outperforming expectations and placing second. His investment of time and organising power, plus his refreshing presence for Iowa audiences, has paid off big time. At this moment, he is the Jimmy Carter of the race. In 1976, Carter, a small cleanskin anti-Richard Nixon governor from a small state came out of nowhere to win Iowa and - on the back of that momentum - the presidency.
   
• Bernie Sanders: A solid performance, including leading in the popular vote, where he appears on top – a reflection of his supporter’s loyalty to Sanders four years after the Clinton wars. He also delivered a solid margin over his compatriot on the left, Elizabeth Warren.

Losers

• Joe Biden: An exceptionally disappointing performance, falling to fourth place. Biden could not carry areas where Obama was strong in 2008 and 2012 and where Trump did well in 2016. Buttigieg re-took that territory – a signal of potential strength in November if he is the nominee. This is a big fall for the former vice president, and will make it tougher to raise money and show sustaining strength in the long road from New Hampshire, through Nevada and to South Carolina at the end of February.
   
• Elizabeth Warren: The superstar performer through the summer of 2019, but lacking momentum later in the year because of push back especially on health care – the core issue this year for Democrats. There is room for only one champion of the left in the final stages of this fight and Bernie ceded no ground while Warren could not match the fervour of his base.
   
• Amy Klobuchar: She had everyone’s respect for her courage and common-sense presence, but she simply could not crack into the top tier – sharing the fate of Kamala Harris and Cory Booker. Klobuchar's campaign will likely be unable to continue after New Hampshire.
   

Looking Ahead to New Hampshire

If Buttigieg can capitalise on this apparent victory in Iowa and win or come very close to Sanders next week, he would assume the mantle of leader of the centrist, moderate wing of the party. A win in New Hampshire is critical for Sanders, and a win or very close second is essential for Warren to be this year’s comeback kid. Another fourth place for Biden could place his campaign in the gravest danger.

The Hidden Winner

Michael Bloomberg has bypassed these first contests. He is rising in the polls. With a quarter of a billion dollars spent and hundreds of millions more to come on advertising and organisation-building for Super Tuesday (14 primaries on March 3) he suddenly looks extremely intelligent, cunning, and can-do.

EVENT

Learn@Lunch: Political satire

In an age where late night TV hosts dominate YouTube, the US Consulate General Sydney and the Australian American Fulbright Commission are hosting a panel discussion on why political satire matters in Australia and the US and what impact it has.

Featuring:

• Dr Rodney Taveira, lecturer (US Studies Centre)
• Dan Ilic, comedian (A Rational Fear podcast, Obama Foundation Young Leader),
• Victoria Zerbst, comedian (SBS The Feed, US Consulate Sydney Youth Advisory Council) 

The panel will be moderated by Flip Prior from the ABC News Investigations team. 

DATE & TIME
12 February 2020
6.00pm - 8.00pm

LOCATION
The Beresford Hotel
354 Bourke St
Surry Hills NSW 2010

COST
Free, but registration required.

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