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18 SEPTEMBER
Scott Morrison goes to Washington
US President Donald Trump is preparing to host Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison for a prestigious state visit this week, with the rare honour of a formal state dinner at the White House. It's being seen as a signature foreign policy moment for Morrison’s prime ministership.
The United States Studies Centre's CEO Simon Jackman notes in The Australian Financial Review this week that the Australian government has won favour in the White House. This is due, he says, to its support for the Iran situation, amends for allowing a close ally to have no ambassador for almost two years, and a "pat on the back" for leaning forward on China, lifting defence spending to 2 per cent of GDP, and for running a trade deficit with the United States.
Morrison will be in the United States until September 27. He is expected to visit the United Nations, NASA headquarters, and Australian and tech entrepreneurs working in the Midwest.
NEWS WRAP
Will Trump and Morrison talk trade war?
Despite a rocky start, relations between Australia and the United States have been uniquely smooth in the Trump era. This stability may limit the scope of what Trump and Morrison can talk about this weekend, writes Senior Lecturer David Smith in The Conversation. However, the US-China trade war, and Australia’s role in it, will almost certainly be a topic of conversation. READ MORE HERE.
- Climate change has been a top-tier issue in recent elections and political debates, even prompting a special CNN Town Hall for Democrats in September to specifically address how they'll tackle the problem if they win office next year. University of Sydney Professor of Environmental Politics David Schlosberg joined the 2020Vision podcast this week to discuss the climate policies of the 2020 candidates and
explain whether we'll see climate change as a central issue in next year's presidential election. LISTEN HERE.
- Saudi oil, Chinese influence and climate change were all tackled in Monday's episode of the ABC's Q&A program. USSC Senior Fellow John Lee weighed in on the night's topics as a panellist alongside Liberal Senator James Paterson, Shadow Minister for Trade Madeleine King, author/social analyst Eva Cox and former Labor Senator Sam Dastyari. WATCH HERE.
- How is it that John Bolton survived in his position for 17 months given that his ideological stances were from the outset in direct contrast with President Trump’s foreign policy instincts? Lecturer in US politics and foreign policy Gorana Grgic attempts to uncover that in her column for The Interpreter this week. READ MORE HERE.
- Is Australia taking the ‘cheap way out’ on fuel reserve strategy? Director of the USSC's Trade and Investment Program, Stephen Kirchner, told The Australian newspaper that not having the stockpiles of fuel in Australia left the economy and defence forces vulnerable to the types of supply disruptions now occurring in the Middle East in the aftermath of the weekend’s drone attacks on facilities in Saudi Arabia. READ MORE HERE.
I didn’t think the president asked me to do anything illegal.
Donald Trump's former campaign boss Corey Lewandowski
House Judiciary Committee hearing
17 September 2019
ANALYSIS
US foreign policy and the 2020 election
Dougal Robinson
Non-Resident Fellow
Absent a new war or international crisis, foreign policy is unlikely to be a key issue in the 2020 election. However, it will play a role, and President Trump will see it as an electoral strength: he will argue that he has been successful where Obama was not. This narrative might be surprising to foreign policy professionals in Canberra, but it enjoys support from a majority of the American electorate.
The progressive National Security Action group released a survey late last month that found voters had a net positive view of Trump on national security: 55 per cent approval compared to 45 per cent disapproval, far higher than President Trump’s historically low overall approval rating.
During his re-campaign to ‘Keep America Great’, President Trump will argue that he has reasserted America’s military strength, forced allies to spend more on defence, that North Korea is no longer a threat, Iran is under pressure, he has been the most pro-Israel president in recent memory, withdrawn from Afghanistan and “100 per cent” defeated ISIS. Trade will also play a prominent role in his pitch for another four years: he will ask voters to give him more time to reach major trade deals with China and renegotiate other agreements to benefit American workers.
Moreover, with a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives until the 2020 election, President Trump is unlikely to achieve domestic successes before the election. Many of his most notable actions in the two years leading up to November 2020 will likely be in foreign policy.
The China hardening in the Democratic Party is now – and will likely continue to – embolden President Trump in his approach to Beijing up to the 2020 election and perhaps beyond. Moreover, the contours of China policy in a potential Democratic administration are becoming clear.
Regardless of who wins the election, Canberra will need to prepare to be called on by the United States for a tougher approach to China. On defence spending, Democrats’ positions presage a plateau or cut to top-line spending. If nothing else, Australia must build sufficiently deep connections to the Democratic campaigns so that, if a Democrat wins, the Australian prime minister will not be relying on golfer Greg Norman to tee up a congratulatory phone call with the president-elect.
Read Dougal Robinson's full report, The Frontrunners: Foreign Policy and the Democratic Party in 2020, here.
DIARY
The week ahead
Wednesday, 18 September: US Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation hearing on "mass violence, extremism and digital responsibility".
Thursday, 19 September: Last sitting day of Australian Parliament until October 14.
Friday, 20 September: President Trump will host Prime Minister Scott Morrison for a White House State Dinner.
Sunday, 22 September: The 71st Primetime Emmy Awards.
EVENT
Lessons from America's longest war: The past, present and future of Afghanistan
Eighteen years into America's war in Afghanistan, it is important to remember that America’s goals were lofty to begin with: destroy al Qaeda, remove the Taliban from power, remake the country into a democracy. While the United States succeeded in ousting the Taliban and driving al Qaeda from the country, its efforts to fashion a self-standing Afghan political order and to prevent the resurgence of militancy and terrorism never reached a satisfying outcome. How, why, and in what ways did the Western project in Afghanistan fail? Is a durable solution to the war within reach? If so, what does the US approach to disengagement from Afghanistan imply for American strategy and force posture in the emerging great power competitions outside the region? If not, what are the options for addressing the West’s core interests in Afghanistan and the region?
To better understand what these implications might be, and to discuss what the evolving policy process inside the Trump administration has been, please join us for a special conversation with Dr Colin Jackson, Chairman of the Strategic and Operational Research Department at the US Naval War College, and until recently the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia in the US Department of Defense. United States Studies Centre Senior Fellow Dr Charles Edel will moderate the discussion.
DATE & TIME
Wednesday, 2 October 6pm-7pm
LOCATION
USSC Boardroom Institute Building, City Rd, University of Sydney
COST
$10
VIDEO
Biden and Castro spar over healthcare policy in the third Democratic debate
THE WEEK IN TWEETS
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United States Studies Centre
Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006
