22 SEPTEMBER

Vale Ruth Bader Ginsburg

In the home stretch of the US presidential election, a seismic event has occurred – long-serving Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away, aged 87. As Non-Resident Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe wrote in the Canberra Times, “she was a woman of valour.”

In an about-face from 2016, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has moved from his pledge to “let the American people decide” a Supreme Court vacancy in the final year of a president's term, to promising, “President Trump’s nominee will receive a vote on the floor of the United States Senate.” Not quite an “October Surprise,” but as United States Studies Centre CEO Professor Simon Jackman explained on Channel 10, this turn of events allows the Trump campaign to change the narrative away from COVID-19.

Nominations to the Supreme Court are always contentious in an era of polarisation in Washington. Replacing a liberal justice with a conservative will substantially change the ideological composition of the Supreme Court, in the shadow of a fiercely contested presidential election. The nomination and confirmation battle will see issues such as abortion and the Affordable Care Act come rushing back to centre stage in the election campaign. Moreover, there is the distinct prospect that the Supreme Court will be called upon to rule on some of the many election-related cases working their way through the courts, perhaps in a way that could decide the election as in 2000.

To learn more about the implications of this vacancy and how the Supreme Court may decide this election, make sure to tune in to tomorrow’s webinar Law, the courts and free and fair elections in the United States.

VIDEO

"When America stopped being great"

Did you miss our webinar When America Stopped Being Great: A conversation with author Nick Bryant? The BBC News senior foreign correspondent in New York appeared alongside US Studies Centre CEO Professor Simon Jackman to discuss the growing executive overreach, shifting economic and cultural power, and ubiquitous distrust of media and government which paved the way for a disruptor with promises of “greatness.” Watch the full discussion HERE.

Catch this and other recent webinars on the USSC YouTube channel!

NEWS WRAP

"Justice, justice you shall pursue"

Trump wants Supreme Court pick before election
President Trump is poised to announce his Supreme Court nomination by 26 September, a week after the seat was left vacant by the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. At a recent rally in North Carolina, Trump vowed to select a "very talented, very brilliant woman" for the position, with Appellate Judge Amy Coney Barrett tipped for the nomination. READ MORE HERE
All three branches of US government on the November ballot
In an interview on Sunrise, Non-Resident Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe described Ruth Bader Ginsburg as the "anchor of the liberal wing of the Supreme Court", and the news of her death has "supercharged the election 44 days out." With a pending Supreme Court nomination in play during the election campaign, all three branches of government are effectively up for contention in November, Wolpe told host David Koch. WATCH HERE
State of emergency ahead of Breonna Taylor announcement
Louisville Mayor Greg Fischer has declared a state of emergency as the Kentucky Attorney General prepares to announce whether his office will bring charges against the police officers who fatally shot Breonna Taylor on 13 March. In an official statement, Mayor Fisher said the goal was to ensure "opportunity for potential protesters to gather and express their First Amendment rights," while also "preparing for any eventuality to keep everyone safe." READ MORE HERE
US coronavirus death toll hits 200,000
Roughly 200 days after recording its first coronavirus death on 29 February, the United States has reached the grim milestone of 200,000 deaths from COVID-19. The figure was reported by Johns Hopkins University based on data supplied by state health authorities, though the number is thought to potentially be much higher due to miscategorised deaths early on in the outbreak. The next closest countries by COVID-19 fatalities are Brazil with more than 137,000 deaths and India with almost 89,000. READ MORE HERE

My most fervent wish is that I will not be replaced until a
new president is installed.

Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg
Statement dictated to her granddaughter before her death
September 2020

ANALYSIS

A Supreme Court justice dies and an election is upended

Bruce Wolpe
Non-Resident Senior Fellow

Ruth Bader Ginsburg, one of the most respected and revered US Supreme Court justices in recent decades, has died, leaving an immense void in the lives of untold millions of Americans who were captivated by her life story, supportive of her jurisprudence and scholarship, and enthralled by her presence, persona and notoriety (she even became the iconic "Notorious RBG"). In the highest tradition of Jewish faith, she was a woman of valour, with a career spanning from being a mother and homemaker to a legal superstar who reached the pinnacle of legal stature. RBG was a woman of consequence.

Justice Ginsburg worked in a building on whose pediment are inscribed the words "Equal Justice Under Law". This is what she sought for all Americans, for all women, for all people of all colours and from every walk of life. She yielded to no one in her fight to ensure that women had freedom of choice over their bodies, that all citizens had full and equal access to the voting booth, that power - governmental, business and individual - was fully accountable to the rule of law, that democracy was not polluted by greed and money. She was faithful to her principles and purpose to her last day in this life.

It is a terribly sad measure of our times that the death of a Supreme Court justice would, within a handful of hours, be conflated into the bitter political wars over the future of the Supreme Court that will shape the contours of the country for years to come.

The current wave of politicisation of the court the United States is enduring can be dated from the decision on abortion in 1973, Roe v Wade. It was underscored by the Court's 5-4 ruling in Bush v Gore that decided the 2000 presidential election, and then supercharged with the decision in Citizens United (2010) that removed, by equating the spending of money with the expression of speech under the first amendment, any control on the expenditure of special interest money in US political campaigns. The court also strongly affirmed gun rights under the second amendment in District of Columbia v Heller (2008). All these decisions have unleashed waves of political forces throughout the country.

The court is so important because it is the place of judgement in American society on these highly emotive issues - issues spawned in the words of the constitution.

Read the full article

VIRTUAL EVENT

Law, the courts and free and fair elections in the United States

What to expect in 2020

Less than 50 days before the 2020 presidential election, the contestation groundwork is already being laid, with President Trump casting doubt over vote by mail while his opponents argue the struggle to access the polls is a threat to voter rights and democracy itself. The new vacancy following the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg further heightens the tension around the role of the court in the election. Meanwhile, interest groups allied with both sides of politics are at the ready, launching or preparing for post-election litigation in multiple jurisdictions.

What constitutional and legal arguments are being deployed? And for the eventual winner, will their victory and governing authority be accepted as legitimate by the American people and the world?

To discuss these issues, please join us for a webinar event featuring Ruth Greenwood, Co-Director of the Voting Rights and Redistricting Program at the Campaign Legal Center in conversation with United States Studies Centre CEO Professor Simon Jackman.

WHEN:
Thursday, 24 September, 10am AEST (Sydney)
Wednesday, 23 September, 8pm EDT (Washington, DC)

COST:
Free, but registration is essential

REGISTER NOW

BY THE NUMBERS

Whites' diminishing share of electorate

2008-2012 decrease: -2.5% | 2012-1016 decrease: -0.5%

As covered in The perils of pre-election polling, the share of non-Hispanic Whites in the electorate has declined since 1988. While recent elections saw declines of 2.9 and 2.5 per cent, the share of non-Hispanic Whites only declined by 0.5 per cent in the 2016 election.

Trump mobilised these voters and slowed the decline, playing a significant role in winning him the 2016 election. However, the 2018 mid-terms (when Trump was not on the ballot) showed record high minority turnout and the share of White voters far below the historical trend. 2020 will put these two trends head-to-head and the result of the election could hang in the balance.