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30 JANUARY
Pelosi, Trump set the date
President Donald Trump has accepted House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's invitation to give his State of the Union address on Tuesday, February 5. Trump will deliver his speech to a joint session of Congress one week after the originally agreed upon date, which became unstuck due to the partial government shutdown and negotiations of the president's border wall.
Georgia Democrat Stacey Abrams, who narrowly lost her race for governor in 2018, has been selected to deliver the Democratic Party's official response. She will give the televised rebuttal shortly after Trump's address. Abrams will be the first African-American woman to give the Democratic response to the State of the Union.
NEWS WRAP
North Korea won't give up nukes: Coats
US Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats has told a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing that North Korea is unlikely to give up its nuclear weapons and production capabilities. President Trump has previously asserted that – after the Singapore summit 2018 – North Korea no longer posed a nuclear threat. Coats used the hearing to argue that ISIS continues to represent a danger to the United States despite the administration’s claims that it has been defeated. He also emphasised that Russia continues to pose a danger to the US political process. READ MORE HERE.
- Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz is considering a White House bid in 2020 as a "centrist independent". Schultz said that if he runs, it would be to provide an alternative to American voters who don't align with either major political party. Democrats say they are increasingly alarmed that a third-party run could split the anti-incumbent vote and help President Trump be re-elected. READ MORE HERE.
- Longtime Donald Trump associate Roger Stone pleaded not guilty Tuesday to charges he lied to Congress and obstructed the House’s investigation into Russian election meddling. Stone has been under investigation for more than two-and-a-half years over accusations he was working with WikiLeaks to release stolen Democratic emails that would damage Hillary Clinton’s 2016 White House campaign. READ MORE HERE.
- The United States charged the Chinese technology giant Huawei, its chief financial officer and two affiliates on Monday with bank and wire fraud to violate sanctions against Iran. Separately, the Justice Department also accused two Huawei subsidiaries of 10 counts of stealing trade secrets, wire fraud and obstructing justice for allegedly stealing robotic technology from US carrier T-Mobile. Research fellow Brendan Thomas-Noone spoke to London's Telegraph about the latest salvo between Washington and Beijing. READ MORE HERE.
China’s trade negotiators visited Washington this week to hammer out a deal with the United States, and the near-term future of the world economy rides on the outcome. President Trump is threatening to impose new tariffs unless China agrees to a deal by 1 March. The Sydney Morning Herald spoke to the USSC's director of trade and investment Stephen Kirchner about a “dangerous” new phase in the world economy. READ MORE HERE.
I’ve heard people say when I ran [for attorney general of California], and ran as the first woman who would win: ‘People aren’t ready. It’s not your time. Nobody like you has done that before.' I haven’t listened, and I would suggest that nobody should listen to that kind of conversation.
Kamala Harris responds to a question about the chances of a woman beating Trump in 2020
(CNN Town Hall)
28 January 2019
ANALYSIS
Shutdown: The new third rail of American politics
Bruce Wolpe
Visiting Fellow
The partial shutdown of the US government – at 35 days, the longest in US history – was a clear political loss for President Trump.
The polls showed it. Voters rejected Trump’s connection of a worthy political issue – border security and immigration policy – and closing government agencies and services. It put 800,000 federal employees and their families into financial harm, with collateral damage to the economy. During the shutdown Trump’s disapproval spiked to close to 60 per cent, and his approval fell below 40 per cent. Come 2020, the shutdown may be a defining moment in the Trump presidency, not unlike the gas lines across America during the energy crisis under President Jimmy Carter. Carter was a one-term president.
There are some big takeaways from what has occurred. Foremost is that this won't happen again. The shutdown has now replaced Social Security to become the new 'third rail' of American politics – you touch it and you die. Republicans in the Senate had had enough by the time Trump caved on 24 January and agreed to reopen the government without any money for his wall with Mexico. The 21-day legislative process set up to resolve the issues may not succeed, but Congress will not revert to a shutdown of the government as a hammer to settle immigration policy.
Trump faces two obstacles to making a deal here. First, internal: Trump often talks in extravagant terms about a grand deal that solves the Dreamers issue, and those of other refugees in America without permanent status. But he is always pulled back by his hardliners – Stephen Miller, the Freedom Caucus, Fox News, Steve Bannon. Will he really override them in the end? The work of the bipartisan conference/commission will run into that hardline conservative wall against any give on immigration. Trump ended the Dreamers’s status in 2017 because of the hardline caucus and it is yet to be seen if Trump would break with them in order to sign off on a truly bipartisan deal.
Second, external: Trump does not know how to make a deal in Washington. The master presidential legislators – LBJ (Medicare and civil rights), Reagan (tax reform and deregulation), Clinton (balanced budget), Obama (health care, global warming, Wall Street reform) – enlist their allies on the Hill to get something now, then get more later, and still more later. Trump wants everything now. He only engages seriously with his fellow Republicans; there is never a productive give-and-take session with Democrats. Trump 'negotiates' with Congress the way he negotiates with China: put all the bullets in the gun and start shooting. Washington does not work that way – as Trump found out in the shutdown.
If all fails and Trump goes for the national emergency, he will trade one debacle for another. As a legal matter, Trump likely has the authority to invoke the National Emergencies Act and re-allocate already appropriated funds from the defence, military construction and other budgets to pay for the wall. But the pushback on that – both legal and political – will be enormous. The Trump record before the courts is poor due to sloppy lawyering. Politically, Trump will be messing with billions in funds approved by lawmakers in the House and Senate; he would be robbing their priorities and projects to pay for his wall. This would be unwelcome. Republicans are worried that if Trump does it, a Democratic president could do it, too – a dangerous precedent.
DIARY
The week ahead
Thursday, 31 January: United States Studies Centre's 'State of the Union' briefing and panel event in Sydney (sold out).
Tuesday, 5 February: President Trump will deliver his State of the Union address in Washington, DC.
Tuesday, 5 February: Former Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams will give the Democrats' response to the State of the Union.
VIDEO
Acting AG Matthew Whitaker says Russia investigation "close to being completed"
THE WEEK IN TWEETS
#ClimateChange
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United States Studies Centre
Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006
