Research Theme I: The low carbon emissions economy
China and the United States accelerating climate change initiatives
May 12, 2013. China and the United States (US) are the world’s two largest economies; together, they produce approximately 37% of world greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. According to new research from the Australian Climate Commission, China and the US have made significant progress in accelerating efforts to tackle the issue of climate change. China is the world’s largest GHG emitter and though emissions will continue to rise for some time, China is making progress
on its renewable energy production and carbon intensity targets (although absolute emissions continue to rise). China will set even tougher standards in the coming years and the country is emerging as the world’s renewable energy powerhouse. Despite partisan divisions in Washington DC, the US has taken a number of regulatory and executive initiatives through existing agencies including the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which have contributed to the reduction of emissions. In the last four years, installed renewable energy capacity has almost doubled, and recent statements by President Obama indicate a strong willingness to take further action. In addition to domestic actions, China and the US are stepping up their collaboration, announcing new arrangements in areas including renewable energy and clean technology development.
The most significant recent development in the North American climate mitigation landscape is the linking of the California and Quebec emissions trading schemes under the Western Climate Initiative (WCI), which is expected to be fully operational by January 1, 2014. Emissions from Quebec
represented 12% of total Canadian emissions in 2010, making it the third-highest emitting province after Alberta and Ontario. British Columbia (BC) is at the forefront of the fight against climate change and, in 2010, became the first North American province or state to achieve carbon neutral operations within its public sector. Canada’s pollution pricing ambitions are being led by the provinces, as the Federal Government has no immediate plans to implement emissions trading or to put a price on carbon.
Research Theme II: Sustainable communities
New tool helps farmers optimize fertilizer use
May 14, 2013. Researchers at Cornell University have devised a new tool
to help farmers avoid nitrogen over-fertilization and the subsequent pollution that results. The web-based tool, “Adapt-N”, compiles soil, weather, crop, and climate data to estimate nitrogen fertilizer needs. The tool is being tested in select jurisdictions in the US where it is reportedly saving farmers thousands of dollars and significantly reducing nitrogen leaching into the ecosystem. A 607-hectare corn and soybean farm in New York followed the Adapt-N recommendations on a four-hectare field, applying 36% of the fertilizer they usually use, and saw no loss in yield. Excess nitrogen, usually in the form of nitrate, can seep into groundwater and contaminate it. Excess nitrate that reaches the coastal ocean via runoff from agricultural regions supports the growth (‘blooms’) of plant cells (“phytoplankton”) in sunlit surface waters. When
phytoplankton cells die and settle toward the sea floor, or get consumed by animals that then excrete, the sinking organic matter is decomposed by oxygen-consuming bacteria. That decreases the subsurface oxygen supply and can create “dead zones” unable to sustain marine life. A very large dead zone, thousands of square kilometres in size and hazardous to fish and crabs, now forms every summer off the mouth of the Mississippi River in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Excess nitrogen derived from agriculture in states upstream, like Ohio, is fingered as a key agent in supporting the phytoplankton blooms. Dissolved nitrate is also converted to nitrous oxide by bacteria acting in low-oxygen areas in the sea. Nitrous oxide effuses from the ocean to the atmosphere and is a powerful greenhouse gas, each molecule of which is 300 times more effective at trapping heat than a molecule of
CO2. By using Adapt-N to optimize nitrogen inputs, farmers can reduce costs and overall environmental impacts while maintaining crop yields.
From a climate perspective, concern is growing about energy use as well as carbon and nitrogen emissions as the world’s population expands and more pressure is placed on farmers to increase production. In 2011 a group of researchers created a personal nitrogen calculator
where people can see the nitrogen footprint of their daily habits. The nitrogen calculator is patterned on the carbon calculator, which has increased our general understanding of personal carbon footprints in the last two decades since William Rees and Mathis Wackernagel at UBC developed the well-known ecological footprint tool. More recently, the Government of British Columbia through LiveSmart BC has developed the Lifestyle Carbon Calculator that promotes energy conservation among British Columbians.
Research Theme III: Resilient ecosystems
How Arctic warming affects our local weather
May 8, 2013. The Arctic is experiencing more rapid rates of warming than other parts of the globe, and this has implications for weather patterns around the world. In August 2012, sea ice levels were the lowest on record, covering 18% less area than the previous lowest record, set in 2007. As the amount of sea ice decreases, the rate of warming in the Arctic increases even more disproportionately to the rest of the northern hemisphere. The phenomenon is known as Arctic amplification, and it changes the characteristics
of the high altitude air movement known as the jet stream––a wave that flows from west to east in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The jet stream plays a key role in influencing weather patterns in the northern hemisphere.
This video, narrated by Dr. Jennifer Francis, a Research Professor at Rutgers University, succinctly explains how a warming Arctic appears to be causing the jet stream to meander more, pulling air both further north and further south while moving more slowly from west to east. The enhanced meandering is thought to increase the incidence of ‘cut off lows’ and ‘blocking highs.’ In response, weather systems are more likely to be extreme, either cold or hot, wetter or drier, and they will stay in one place longer.
In BC this could mean, from time to time, more ‘socked-in’ rain and longer episodes of little precipitation. Weather that is anomalous for the season may become more common, as weather systems get stuck in place instead of moving through the region. Such effects may already be affecting areas elsewhere in the northern hemisphere. A record heat wave caused by a blocking high sat over western Russia for 62 straight days in 2010. The event set temperature records in multiple regions, caused a major spike in human mortality, with 11000 ‘excess’ deaths in Moscow alone in July and August, and disrupted world food commodity prices when the intense heat and absence of rain cause a steep decline in Russian wheat production. Last year, a
heat wave hit Ontario and the northeastern US in March, and then snow returned in April. While weather variation is always to be expected, newly elected BC Green Party MLA Andrew Weaver has said that extreme weather events like the March 2012 heat wave would be unlikely without climate change. Weaver’s background as a climate modeler and his commitment to “ensure that evidence forms the basis of decision-making rather than decisions forming the basis of evidence-making” will establish a new voice for confronting climate change in the BC Legislature.
Research Theme IV: Social mobilization
US plans to scrap coal export terminal turn attentions to BC
May 8th, 2013. Energy company Kinder Morgan has announced it will scrap plans
for a proposed coal export terminal, located along the Columbia River in Oregon. This marks the third of six projects based along the US west coast that the company has abandoned, due to rising opposition amongst the public. The company’s decision to forego plans to build ports in the US will likely put additional pressure on plans to expand terminals located within British Columbia. The lower mainland is home to several coal export terminals, including Westshore Terminals at Deltaport, which is currently Canada’s largest coal export terminal. Port Metro Vancouver says US thermal coal exports from its site reached more than 11.5 million tonnes in 2011. Soon to be published data show that US exports fell back to 9.8 million tonnes in 2012, but despite this, the
overall trend is upward. Concerns have been raised by groups including Voters Taking Action on Climate Change, that the Vancouver’s coal export expansion plans put the city on track to become the largest coal export terminal in North America.
British Columbia’s May 14th election results, which saw the re-election of the BC Liberal Party, will have implications for climate and coal-export policies, as discussed in last week’s news scan. In its election platform, the BC Liberal Party
indicated support for the expansion of coal exports, noting that a growing Asian middle class has a need for resources including coal, and that the $22 billion investment in the Pacific Gateway Project makes BC a “natural fit” to meet this growing need. But, according to the David Suzuki Foundation, a research and advocacy organization, expansion of thermal coal production and export will have grave implications for climate change. The organization notes that a single 150 megawatt thermal-coal-powered plant can produce the equivalent emissions of 200,000 cars over the course of a year, or approximately one million tonnes of the harmful greenhouse gas emissions.
Research Theme V: Carbon management in BC forests
Extreme weather disrupts climate mitigation strategies
May 9, 2013. According to new research, extreme weather events – like forest fires, droughts, and hurricanes – have the potential to seriously disrupt the terrestrial carbon cycle. This means that carbon mitigation efforts, like forest carbon credits, have to take into account how weather conditions may change. Using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a model that integrates a variety of human and natural systems, scientists looked at future scenarios where extreme weather events increased in size and frequency. They found that when designing mitigation policies, such as land-based carbon sequestration, policymakers must consider the possibility of more emissions from the terrestrial carbon cycle.
In BC, the most frequent and dangerous extreme weather-related events are forest fires. But forests also store huge quantities of carbon and when healthy offer an excellent opportunity to mitigate industrial emissions. Forest fires are set to increase in frequency and size, due to warmer summers, reduced snowpack, and changing patterns of precipitation. And the types of forests suited to BC are set to change
too –climates suitable for grasslands and dry forests will expand while coastal rainforests will remain stable in extent, and boreal, subalpine and alpine forests will decrease. Fortunately, forest carbon-credits programs take such variability into account, ensuring that projected sequestration levels have healthy buffers so that the full value of the credit is delivered. However, province-level accounting of carbon emissions should consider the possibility that forests may not absorb the same volume of carbon in the future.
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