13 FEBRUARY

"Any good will is now gone"

President Donald Trump's former personal lawyer Michael Cohen has postponed his congressional testimony for the third time this month. Cohen was due to appear before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on Tuesday but withdrew for what he said were medical reasons.

Cohen is scheduled to report to jail on March 6 following his sentencing to three years in prison for tax crimes, campaign finance violations and lying to Congress in his 2017 Senate Intelligence Committee testimony. He had previously postponed his scheduled testimony to Congress due to what he alleges were threats against his family from President Trump and Trump's lawyer Rudy Giuliani.

Committee Chairman Senator Richard Burr said any "good will" that the committee had toward Cohen is gone after reports that he had been out in New York at night socialising despite claiming he needed to postpone Tuesday's hearing because he is still recovering from shoulder surgery.

NEWS WRAP

Deal or no deal?

• President Trump appears poised to end two months of negotiations over a border wall as Republicans pressured him to accept a bipartisan spending deal rather than close the government again this Friday. Senior lecturer in American politics David Smith spoke to RN Drive's Patricia Karvelas yesterday about what is contained in the compromise deal. LISTEN HERE.
   

• There are two partisan gerrymandering cases before the US Supreme Court this term: a Democratic gerrymander in Maryland and a Republican gerrymander in North Carolina. The Centre's CEO Simon Jackman joined the latest episode of the 2020Vision podcast to discuss the potential impacts of these cases on the 2020 presidential election and his own expert testimony in two US Federal Court cases helping to decide the issue. LISTEN HERE.
   
• The Supreme Court issued a stay on Thursday blocking enforcement of a Louisiana abortion law, which could have implications for abortion rights nationwide. Chief Justice John Roberts was the surprise swing vote in a 5-4 tally that prevents the state from putting into effect a law that requires abortion providers to have admitting privileges at nearby hospitals.  READ MORE HERE.
   
• Democratic congresswoman Ilhan Omar has apologised for Twitter posts suggesting members of US Congress support Israel because they are paid to do so. On Tuesday, President Trump called on her to resign her seat in Congress. READ MORE HERE.
   
• Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar has joined the crowded field of Democratic candidates for the 2020 presidential election, which includes a historic number of women. But amid an upbeat launch for her White House run, there is a cloud over Klobuchar's candidacy in the form of several reports in which ex-staffers claim she has a reputation for running a workplace in Washington “controlled by fear, anger, and shame”. READ MORE HERE.

Walls do not make us safer.

Texas Democrat Beto O'Rourke
"March for Truth" rally in El Paso
11 February 2019

ANALYSIS

To sign or not to sign...

Bruce Wolpe
Visiting Fellow

...that is the question (apologies: Hamlet). At deadline for this edition of The 45th there is cautious optimism in Washington that President Trump will sign the bipartisan compromise legislation that provides limited funding for border security, and ensures the US government will remain open for business until the end of this fiscal year.

This sentiment is in spite of the fact that the headline numbers in the deal are far from what President Trump has insisted on. The agreement reached by the Republican and Democratic leaders of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees provides for new barrier assets of some US$1.375 billion covering 55 miles of the border, compared to the US$5.7 billion that Trump has demanded for some 225 miles of border. Democrats did budge on the number of beds for the detention of immigrants.

So on its face, not a good deal for Trump. And he has expressed very serious reservations. A few hours ago at a cabinet meeting in the White House, Trump said:  “Am I happy at first glance? The answer is no, I’m not, I’m not happy. It’s not going to do the trick, but I’m adding things to it and when you add whatever I have to add, it’s all going to happen where we’re going to build a beautiful big strong wall.”

Trump still has to weather the blowback from both hardline border stalwarts in the House, and Fox News. On Monday night, Fox's Sean Hannity said: "On this new, so-called compromise, I'm getting details... 1.3 billion? That's not a — not even a wall, a barrier?… Any Republican that supports this garbage compromise, you will have to explain." Laura Ingraham and Ann Coulter have also weighed in. And from Rep. Mark Meadows (R-NC) of the Freedom Caucus in the House: "This does not represent a fraction of what the president has promised the American people. I don't speak for the president but I can't imagine he will be applauding something so lacking."

These are two powerful political factors that effectively forced Trump into tanking the border security legislation in December, triggering the longest government shutdown in US history. So, why is it more likely than not that Trump will sign this deal?

Trump believes he retains the ability to supplement the money in the legislation with “executive action”. In recent days, the mood seems to have shifted away from a declaration of a national emergency – which would be quite Draconian – to issuing administrative edicts to re-allocate already-appropriated funds from military construction and disaster relief accounts. This will still be challenged in court, to be sure, but the White House lawyers are laying the groundwork for using this mechanism to open pools of money for the wall.

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell today sent the strongest cautionary note to the White House: “I hope he’ll sign it. I think he got a pretty good deal.” Just to drive the point home further, McConnell did not rule out a veto override.

Trump obviously believes the issue is political gold for him – that his base loves it. He rode high on the immigration bronco at the rally in El Paso on Monday night. He can milk it again at other key pressure points later this year – most notably, September 30, when funding for all government agencies expires. 

With the upcoming summit with Kim Jong Un in Hanoi, and with China trade talks demanding a favourable resolution in March, why carry shutdown baggage into the two most important diplomatic initiatives of 2019?

Trump is notoriously unpredictable. We do not know if he has read Hamlet. We will see if he takes arms against a sea of troubles.

DIARY

The week ahead

• Wednesday, 13 February: US Senate Armed Services Committee to receive a closed briefing on cyber operations to defend the midterm elections.
   

• Wednesday, 13 February: President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump to meet with the president and first lady of Colombia.
   
• Friday, 15 February: Deadline for an agreement to prevent another US government shutdown.
   

• 18-21 February: Australian House of Representatives sitting.
   

• 18-22 February: Australian Senate estimates.

EVENT

 The second summit: Trump, Kim and US engagement in Northeast Asia

VIDEO

Trump supporter shoves cameraman at the president's "Finish the Wall" rally in Texas

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

#JohnDingell

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University of Sydney NSW 2006

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